Members Daily Post: 24/10/20 (complete)

All tips x3, Quals, Showcase Day 2 qualifiers etc

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to follow. Punting Pointers HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

3.15 Chelt 

#1 – Champagne Court – 1/2 point EW –  UP, -1 … strange run, maybe needed it, maybe didn’t stay, poss odd question now, we shall see. Honest Vic drifting from 7s to 12s was a tad frustrating but that’s the game.

#2 – Minella Warrior – 1/2 point EW – UP -1, hasn’t run very well, nothing there when asked.

3.50 Chelt

#3 – Cloth Cap – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/BV/BetF) 3rd, -1, decent run, travelled well, no match for Frodon/front two – definitely has something in him on decent ground from this mark, but when he next gets it, who knows. All credit to Frodon, what a horse.

That’s all for Saturday from me, x3 tips, x3 points, as of 17.50, write ups at bottom…

 

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (5/35,15p, -5.2)

None.

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/34, 7p, -18.2)

2.33 Kelso – The Hollow Ginge (8/1<) 17/2 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am odds) Fell

3.50 Chelt- Cogry (8/1<) 13/2 UP

5.00 Chelt – Ballymalin (8/1<) 8/1 UP

E Lavelle

(2/13,6p, -4.25)

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

Cheltenham Showcase Day 2

Pointers post HERE>>>

 

DAY 2 QUALIFIERS ETC : READ HERE>>> 

So as not to clutter this part of the post too much, in that doc above you can find the Showcase ‘qualifiers’ against the stats/angles post, and then also the trends/stats/trainer shortlists for the two handicaps… 3.15 / 3.50.

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VIDEO PREVIEWS/’Walk Throughs’ 

Sort of two parts… the first 20 mins looks at the Pertemps Qualifier, the latter 10 with a quick look at the Handicap Chase. Plenty to absorb, pause and ponder… 

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Tips write ups…

Firstly Rouge Vif – I think we can safely say i’ve got him wrong.  Having a shortlist of three, tipping the other two, only to see him win hard held was rather frustrating from a ‘non puzzle solved’ perspective. I’ve tried to be too clever with price/’value’ there having missed 5s. There’s various parts of my thinking that don’t make sense (in hindsight) but I won’t bore you with all those (preferring the horse who ran in a C3 Novice hncp LTO to one dropping down from 3rd in The Arkle for one!) – anyway, the main lesson from that debacle is ‘if in doubt, let class win out!’  And i’ll try and remember that when i’m in anguished deliberation. I knew he’d be fit enough (won on return last season), and of course Arkle pace, even in the slop, was good enough to hold a position against those. Every chase he’s encountered with Good in the going he’s blitzed them. On The Slopes ran as if needing the run, and that may have been sharp enough now. He should have more races in him but how high, we shall see. I need to watch it back again, but Moore’s ran well enough into 3rd, possibly outpaced/classed at times, but he should learn again from that. Maybe worth a go over 20f at a lesser track/race. The winner is clearly best on Good and it will be interesting to see if he can nab an open G1 in time. He’s such a superb jumper on that ground. It gets worse the more you think about it 🙂 That’s enough looking backwards, not too much damage done but frustrating to be close, but not close enough –  looking forwards…

3.15…

Champagne Court – 

The video touches on these two. This one ticks some of my trends pointers and has been crying out for 3m, (he’s got Ptp form also). It could be this is a prep for a return to fences- well he will be going chasing after I suspect and he has a decent handicap pot in him I think – but it looks as though they’ve decided to try and cash in on his hurdles mark, which is 9lb below his chase mark. I also think he’s best on decent ground and provided the heavens don’t fully open (some rain forecast in afternoon) he should run a big race. His ‘running on’ Martin Pipe 4th in March 19 (20f), the running on 3rd at Sandown after that, and his return last season in The Silver Trophy is better handicap hurdling form than most in here. If he could build on those runs, up in trip, he should be thereabouts. Of course they may not have him ready and he may not stay but at the price i’ll pay to find out. Pace is interesting – over this new trip he may not be aggressive but should sit handy. I’m excited to see what he can do in these conditions.

Minella Warrior – 

An even riskier one but method to my madness – IF he got back to his best hurdles form he would do some damage from this mark. He’s 1/2,2p in handicap hurdles so is hardly exposed, even though he’s 8. He ran a fine 2nd in a Pertemps Qualifier at Huntingdon in Jan 19 – the front two were clear there, he went down 1/2 L from Not Many Left of Jessie’s. He came into that off 137 and would run a cracker in the main even at that year’s Festival, a close 3rd. He hacked up NTO at Wetherby off this mark. Chasing obviously hasn’t gone to plan and maybe his confidence is shot to bits. But he’s had a break, he goes well fresh, the yard are flying and he won’t be done for stamina here. IF he runs his race i’d be disappointed if he wasn’t in the places and at 20s or so, i’ll roll the dice. He shouldn’t be too far off the pace either. It may be significant Bass isn’t here

Of the rest…

Well there’s nothing at a double figure price that would annoy me really. I suppose Tom George’s at 16s may leave me pondering a bit but I thought he needed more and may not be that well handicapped now.

Of the single figure ones… well if Tobefair wins aged 10 from this weight/mark, all credit to him. I thought it may happen quick enough but he is the class element, solid. Not that I wanted to dive in at 7s. Flinck and Honest Vic have to prove their stamina and the odd other niggle, in the context of price. But I wouldn’t be shocked if either relished it, but just not enough there for me at the odds. Lacey’s and Skelton’s are unexposed and in great form, but i’m not sure what they’ve been beating and need more. Track/level of oppo a question for all that they couldn’t have been more impressive – one of them may take it but I was happy to leave at 6s or so.

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3.50

Cloth Cap…

I thought he looked worth a go at 8s. I’ll hope the rain stays away but it shouldn’t be worse than GS. I think he needs decent ground and his Scottish National 3rd still sticks in the mind, given how inexperienced he was. He really should be having a decent season. Hemmings has reduced his string but kept him, which I’d hope is significant and given he’s a staying chaser, the plan must surely be The Grand National. If he’s up to that level he needs to start winning and climb the ratings a bit. Last season was a write off really given the proper soft ground he faced every time. I think he should prove well handicapped at some point and if he can lob along tracking the pace, he won’t be done for stamina after the last. Hopefully Jonjo has him fit – up to him- but at 8s i’ll chance him. Given he needs decent ground, it makes no sense to me to prep him for some soft ground target in Nov/Dec.  He hits a few of my trends pointers for this and if he’s a1 he will run a big race. He’s generally a sound jumper and one of the few in here where there should be more to come, working his way up the ratings, rather than down (or holding steady).

Of the rest…

Frodon, a legend in his own right really, may take some stopping – Paul says he’s looking burly and will come on for the run -but of course that may not stop him and he may surprise his trainer – that’s happened before. He can win from this mark, the weight and I think he stays – well he stays 25f in a small field when dictating, this may be different – but he’s tough and this could be his trip this year. 11/2 could look decent, and I wouldn’t put you off a saver but I was happy to leave him today.

Cobra De Mai has been well found, maybe tipped up somewhere – yes he’s well handicapped and he’s best on good. Last time was prop a prep and the CP return. But he can hit a fence, be patiently ridden. Although when he won over this distance here last April 19 off 142, he made all. That was a poor race though. I wasn’t convinced by him, not at what is now 9/2, 4s. But the market suggests he will give me something to think about.

Manofthemoment is a nice horse but I didn’t feel overpriced- this is a new test for him and he needs more. He may well show it, but at 9/2 I was just about happy to leave him. Had he got course form that may have been different. This should be different than a C3 around Bangor, and he was scruffy over the odd one there.

West Approach can beat me, hard to get right and needs delivering to perfection, for all that he has ability. 10 now though and Tizzard is as yet firing on all cylinders. Cogry is a fine servant and if he wins this aged 11, then fair play to him. I can smile as he crossed the line and not be annoyed I hadn’t waded in at 6s or so.

Bob Mahler – He usually needs 2/3 runs to tune up. If he were spot on he’d run a big race but they could have a plan for him. If he has a winning record fresh i’d be more interested. The yard are so so at the moment also. Maybe The Grand National is on his agenda this year also but he could have another staying pot in him – i’d probably aim him at The Eider if he were mine.

Sensulano is unexposed over fences so dangerous in that sense, for all that I was happy to leave her this time. She could run a big race though.

Captain Chaos is on a career high handicap mark, no headgear, can need the run these days and doesn’t have the best record around here. Happy to leave. As I was the other two.

Pace – Cogry and Frodon will be up there I should think. Captain can go forward but if here for the run maybe potter around further back. Cloth Cap should sit behind the pace, mid div, if here to run his race. He shouldn’t be held up out the back.

Fingers crossed.

Best of luck,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. A 15/2 winner with Captain Tom Cat and an unplaced run from Benny’s Bridge (but ran on to be fifth after drifting in the betting, so maybe one to watch at the course this season?).

    Two for Saturday at Cheltenham:

    3.15, Honest Vic – down one class, up in distance, trainer in form. 1 point each way.

    3.50, Sensulano – 2/4 over fences, won in this class, course winner, low weight. 1 point each way.

    Horses who run at this meeting in 2019 – 2.40, Not That Fuisse (2nd of 4); 3.15, Tobefair (winner) + Minella Warrior (3rd to Tobefair) + Vaniteux (2nd of 11); 3.50, West Approach 92nd of 15) + Bob Mahler (pulled up) + Captain Chaos (pulled up) + Cogry (3rd of 15); 5.00, Plantagenet (2nd of 13). 0/7 on Friday!

    Good luck Martin

    1. Cracking winner there Martin. Didn’t actually see the race as i’m watching footie on the BBC. The winner paid out 16.8/1 on bfsp. Thank you kindly.

  2. I remember Josh backing a rather unlucky PLANTAGENET in the amateur riders chase at Cheltenham last year.

    You should watch the replay. horse lands on the 2nd last fence, nearly unseats, jockey loses iron.. still came second

    I reckon the plan has been to come back and put the record straight.

    So I have had all the returns from Dolos ew max bet on at 7/1 with 4 places

    1. GL Rick. I’ve promised myself to just stick to c2+ but did flick through that and the memories came flooding back! Quite literally as it turned into a bog that day from memory. You’d have thought it’s been the plan. Better ground. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t thereabouts in that line up, and one of best jockeys in the race. GL

      1. The form worked out great too

        Petite Power now 13lb higher
        Fingerontheswitch 17lb higher
        Doing fine 8lb higher

        Plantagenet just 1lb higher… and he would have won with a clean jump. Looks exceptional value with 4 places

        Don’t miss out

  3. Well, another 2 NRs 1 winner from7, from the alternatives at 16s.

    Jessiemac……….12/1
    16:53Kelso
    Firmament……..16/1
    16:05Doncaster
    Zap……………….16/1
    16:05Doncaster
    Nordano…………10/1
    14:05Cheltenham

    Mike

    May come back with 1 or 2 more during the day.

  4. iv landed on West Approach in the 3.50
    Enjoyed the video again Josh, helped me get past Frodon. Although he still could be too good if he’s ready to go for this, but id be thinking he’s not, there’s defo other bigger targets for him and anyways i think i prefer him going full pelt at 2M4F
    Dont think many of the rest ready for today, although a niggle with Bob Mahler, he’s won here has Heskin back on and also Cheekpeices return.
    But was down to Cogry and West Approach, with the way WA went past the former last year i cant see that being reversed, know he’ll be fit for today with being so for the last 2 years and the way he went through the race last year shows he’s very good, just needs delivering right and change to Cobden today i think he will, has loads in here to sit behind a good pace
    8’s+ on the Exchange
    Good luck everyone

    1. GL as always Ryan, glad you found it of some use. Frodon will prob storm up the hill half fit now! It does have an open feel to it, so we shall see.

  5. Hi Josh,
    I notice one of Adam’s highlighted horses, oak vintage, runs at Kelso today. I’ve had a small interest. let’s hope it’s a good start.
    Pat

    1. Hi Pat, thanks for flagging – that’s what those notes will be about – read, absorb, act how you please – although of course they form a key foundation to Adam’s success also – you’d think he will be running a big race having just looked – all of Kirby’s have needed it and he ran better than many on their first start back. Fingers crossed runs a big race for you.
      Josh

  6. Doncaster

    1310 – it’s a bit worrying that Brian Meehan’s Cepheus (8/1) ran so badly last time but is worth another chance after running so well in the Lavazza Stakes at Ascot.

    1345 – Zamaani (5/2) is a smart 2yo and proved at Redcar the ground won’t be a problem. Shark Two One (8/1) is improving with racing.

    1420 – cracking 5f sprint with plenty in with a chance. Tentatively looking at Rayong (14/1), I think the Catterick dash last week was ran in a quick time on a gluepot.

    1455 – Wembley (6/4) is probably the best horse in the race but not a race I will touch as all of the best form was achieved over 7f and not today’s 1m. State of Rest (8/1) may offer the best value. Watch.

    1530 – an open quality 7f nursery. I like Jumby (5/2), Sadiqaa (14/1) and Conservatoire (11/4). Clive Cox’s Sadiqaa offers value if he is on a going day, he is a bit inconsistent.

    1605 – I think I need my hat pin for this one! Fortamour (13/2) is my preferred option and I am hoping he is raced prominently. Ejtilaab (10/1) is unexposed but may be better over 1m.

    1640 – it will be interesting to see how Erich Bloch gets on as he beat our Praxeology! Zip (9/2) is my preference but this really is open with some better over 6f than 7f.

    1710 – division 2 of the 7f handicap. Ugo Gregory (7/1) is consistent and a fair price. Maysong (6/1) is progressing and will be winning soon but may prefer AW.

    Newbury

    1350 – The pick on breeding of the newcomers for me are Cholmondeley (8/1), Delta Bay (15/2), Santiki (12/1). Nastasiya (4/1) ran well on debut and Oasis Cove (5/1) has been solid over 7f and should appreciate the extra furlong. Sit back and have a Bovril!

    1425 – only 5 runners and it’s very open. Bella Notte (13/2) may represent value as she handles the ground.

    1500 – nothing mind blowing shown on previous performances. Setarhe (11/2) has shown the best form but some unexposed horse will probably win.

    1535 – I was really impressed by Percy’s Lad (14/1) and it is surprising to see him drop back to 7f. Laneqash (5/4) looks very good but is no price.

    1610 – for it’s grade this is not as good as you would expect. Euchen Glen (4/1) looks best to me but Kipps (10/1) may represent better value. Not a race I will get involved in.

    1645 – Data Protection (28/1) has put some solid efforts over this trip but has disappointed on his last 2 runs. Worth another chance at this price.

    1720 – Amateur jockeys and heavy ground with 15 runners. The bookies will love this! Azor Ahai (7/2) stands out but there is no way I would bet on this.

    Chelmsford

    1607 – Ajrad (11/4) has run quick enough over this trip to win a race of this nature but it’s not stand out form. Nothing particularly inspiring from the newcomers but Tranquil Breeze (33/1) is from an unusual sire for this country.

    1642 – Smokey (6/4) really ought to win this, I cannot offer an alternative really. Edge of the Bay (11/1) looks the best E/W alternative.

    1715 – Indian Pursuit (3/1) is consistent and he really ought to be winning a race of this nature. Aquadabra (15/2) is capable of competing in better than this grade too.

    1745 – Giuseppe Cassioli (9/2) is progressive but I do think this drop back to 1m for Kodiac Harbour (14/1) will be beneficial. It’s a bit worrying that Kodiac Harbour’s trainer doesn’t know what to do with him….

    1815 – really good competitive 6f sprint. Thegreatestshowman (16/1) looks good value, back to 6f and the run in the Great St Wilfrid over this trip was solid.

    1845 – nothing stands out for me in this. I will be keeping an eye on Alchimista as she has the same grandam (Alborada) as my yearling colt Fortuna Dufflecoat

    1915 – Heaven Forfend (11/4) is probably good enough. Real World (15/8) is an interesting newcomer, a Dark Angel colt from a staying family.

    1945 – low grade 10f handicap where many of them are probably just trying to get a run. Winter Snowdrop (10/1) stands out and is a good price.

    2015 – Bad Attitude (15/8) is progressing and probably will win. Lukoutoldmakezebak (16/1) and Beat The Breeze (15/2) ought to give a run for your money though.

  7. My October Nam angle has churned out these potential pokes –
    14:40 Not That Fuisse 7/2 & Southfield Stone 7/4
    15:50 Cloth Cap 11/2, Manofthemountain 9/2 & Sensulano 9/1
    17:00 Alminar 14/1

  8. Very informative write ups. Never knew I could do all that on geegeez, that’s going to save me hours.
    Thank You for the good video and time taken.
    Good Luck.

    1. Hi Sean,

      No problem, pleased you found it informative.

      In truth, a reader/Gold user had to remind me about the ‘in Instant Expert’ options where can click any element for the drop down etc! I was so used to using HRB alongside Gold i’d just flick to their profile tool etc, but Geegeez has one of those also now. Plenty in the race cards to explore but of course you can have too much info – but certainly in jumps handicaps, the instant expert / pace is a great starting point/way in etc.

      GL, Josh

  9. 13.45 Doncaster. Zamaani win only.

    Selection comes out best on my figures. Zamaani 71.13 secs. Just Frank 71.7 secs. Helmont 71.75. Lippi 72.26. Shark Two One. 72.49. Intrinsic 73.01. May become a tactical race and the rank outsider Intrinsic may pop up even though the worst on the figures but hopefully Zamaani will prevail…gd lck if playing

  10. Morning,

    Should be able to get write ups today.

    15:00 Cheltenham

    TOBEFAIR 1pt win 7/1 gen
    Been here seen it, done it, know he`s now 10, but, he is the class in this and I`m playing at the odds and for me he can drift all day. I`m a fan of horses coming back year after year and he did win this off a 3lb higher mark, he`s been going on much better / worse ground, so, if it does rain I wouldn’t worry. Jack Tudor takes another 5lb off and I would be looking for a big run here!

    I`DBETTERGONOW 1pt win 7/1 gen
    Another horse who could be anything, Mr Skelton always loves a winner at Cheltenham and i think this horse the way he quickened away last time out could be more to come with this one. Down the bottom of the weights also, which also is a pointer of the handicapper not knowing how good it is, value at 7/1

    15:50 Cheltenham

    FRODON 1pt win 13/2 gen
    I`m thinking the price on this one has gone up because the trainer said he`s looking burly? He has won races of this nature and although not the same as ROUGE VIF here yesterday, sometimes the class element outs, full of guts and glory and at this price is definitely value, been here seen it done it etc. class horse!

    WEST APPROACH 1pt win 7/1 gen
    Hmmm, looked a couple of times at this one and i can`t get past the fact that it goes so well on this course, it looks like he likes the old course and has finished in the top 3, 6 out of 8 running’s here, value i thought at he prices and Harry Cobden is a jockey booking i like to see.

    Looking at the comments, i do think that PLANTAGENANT is here to run his race and although a low class race, should be up there when it matters!

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  11. 14.55 Doncaster…..Two at better prices are State of Rest and King Vega being 10/1 and 15/2 respectively and personally worth an e/w poke against the front of the market….on my adjusted figures will give a good account of themselves being marginally better than Wembley and One Ruler, offering a bit of value in a tight race. Gd lck if playing

  12. I think there’s a qualifier for that Class 2 Hcap Blinkers angle that Josh had going for the flat in the 16:45 at Newbury – Kenzai Warrior

  13. Ahh that was hard to take
    Was very confident with West Approach coming to the 2nd last
    Not to be tho
    Well in Stewart for backing Frodon, what a proper horse
    Sadly tho cant agree with the Gold Cup plan, not at all

    1. Not sure i’m ever destined to get Frodon right, which is a sad indictment. Shouldn’t have read the Nicholl’s column – why get swayed by trainers, annoying and an amateur thing to do, but there we go – at 11/2 that made a bit different in my head – but he’s some horse.
      It wasn’t a great renewal really but he wasn’t stopping come the line. If my video put you off apols, that isn’t meant to be the purpose of those!

      Can’t blame them for Gold Cup – what else do they do? Handicaps deeper in season from whatever mark he will get may be out the question, he clearly relishes 25f+. Nothing to prove, if you owned him i’m not sure what else there is to aim at? Unless they pondered a National one day but that could be tough, for all he could just keep going.

    2. Thanks Ryan, tbf i did see the Nicholls comment, but, Bryony said she was bullish and tbf Nicholls did say afterwards that it was a career best run! I agree with Josh, if you run, where do you run, at 9 years old next year, it will be his last swansong i feel. Wouldn`t we want to see one of the best British horses alongside Santini, lining up with some of the Irish contenders and Al Boum Photo going for a third in a row……that has me salivating at the prospect of that race….something to keep you warm on those long dark winter nights ahead!!

      1. Yes i agree its tricky for them but i think Frodon’s beat before the turn for home in the Gold cup think he’ll get found out going up in trip at the top level. But only my opinion of course
        And no Josh no way your Video put me off it was more Nicholls comments but il make a note of that for future and hopefully not get done again
        He’s obviously played down his chances incase he struggled with the big weight around there but superb performance

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