2.Jumps Profiles 20/21
3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
#1 – Champagne Court – 1/2 point EW – UP, -1 … strange run, maybe needed it, maybe didn’t stay, poss odd question now, we shall see. Honest Vic drifting from 7s to 12s was a tad frustrating but that’s the game.
#2 – Minella Warrior – 1/2 point EW – UP -1, hasn’t run very well, nothing there when asked.
#3 – Cloth Cap – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/BV/BetF) 3rd, -1, decent run, travelled well, no match for Frodon/front two – definitely has something in him on decent ground from this mark, but when he next gets it, who knows. All credit to Frodon, what a horse.
That’s all for Saturday from me, x3 tips, x3 points, as of 17.50, write ups at bottom…
2.Jumps Profiles 20/21
(All ‘any odds’) (5/35,15p, -5.2)
3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
(3/34, 7p, -18.2)
2.33 Kelso – The Hollow Ginge (8/1<) 17/2 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am odds) Fell
3.50 Chelt- Cogry (8/1<) 13/2 UP
5.00 Chelt – Ballymalin (8/1<) 8/1 UP
Cheltenham Showcase Day 2
DAY 2 QUALIFIERS ETC : READ HERE>>>
So as not to clutter this part of the post too much, in that doc above you can find the Showcase ‘qualifiers’ against the stats/angles post, and then also the trends/stats/trainer shortlists for the two handicaps… 3.15 / 3.50.
VIDEO PREVIEWS/’Walk Throughs’
Sort of two parts… the first 20 mins looks at the Pertemps Qualifier, the latter 10 with a quick look at the Handicap Chase. Plenty to absorb, pause and ponder…
Tips write ups…
Firstly Rouge Vif – I think we can safely say i’ve got him wrong. Having a shortlist of three, tipping the other two, only to see him win hard held was rather frustrating from a ‘non puzzle solved’ perspective. I’ve tried to be too clever with price/’value’ there having missed 5s. There’s various parts of my thinking that don’t make sense (in hindsight) but I won’t bore you with all those (preferring the horse who ran in a C3 Novice hncp LTO to one dropping down from 3rd in The Arkle for one!) – anyway, the main lesson from that debacle is ‘if in doubt, let class win out!’ And i’ll try and remember that when i’m in anguished deliberation. I knew he’d be fit enough (won on return last season), and of course Arkle pace, even in the slop, was good enough to hold a position against those. Every chase he’s encountered with Good in the going he’s blitzed them. On The Slopes ran as if needing the run, and that may have been sharp enough now. He should have more races in him but how high, we shall see. I need to watch it back again, but Moore’s ran well enough into 3rd, possibly outpaced/classed at times, but he should learn again from that. Maybe worth a go over 20f at a lesser track/race. The winner is clearly best on Good and it will be interesting to see if he can nab an open G1 in time. He’s such a superb jumper on that ground. It gets worse the more you think about it 🙂 That’s enough looking backwards, not too much damage done but frustrating to be close, but not close enough – looking forwards…
Champagne Court –
The video touches on these two. This one ticks some of my trends pointers and has been crying out for 3m, (he’s got Ptp form also). It could be this is a prep for a return to fences- well he will be going chasing after I suspect and he has a decent handicap pot in him I think – but it looks as though they’ve decided to try and cash in on his hurdles mark, which is 9lb below his chase mark. I also think he’s best on decent ground and provided the heavens don’t fully open (some rain forecast in afternoon) he should run a big race. His ‘running on’ Martin Pipe 4th in March 19 (20f), the running on 3rd at Sandown after that, and his return last season in The Silver Trophy is better handicap hurdling form than most in here. If he could build on those runs, up in trip, he should be thereabouts. Of course they may not have him ready and he may not stay but at the price i’ll pay to find out. Pace is interesting – over this new trip he may not be aggressive but should sit handy. I’m excited to see what he can do in these conditions.
Minella Warrior –
An even riskier one but method to my madness – IF he got back to his best hurdles form he would do some damage from this mark. He’s 1/2,2p in handicap hurdles so is hardly exposed, even though he’s 8. He ran a fine 2nd in a Pertemps Qualifier at Huntingdon in Jan 19 – the front two were clear there, he went down 1/2 L from Not Many Left of Jessie’s. He came into that off 137 and would run a cracker in the main even at that year’s Festival, a close 3rd. He hacked up NTO at Wetherby off this mark. Chasing obviously hasn’t gone to plan and maybe his confidence is shot to bits. But he’s had a break, he goes well fresh, the yard are flying and he won’t be done for stamina here. IF he runs his race i’d be disappointed if he wasn’t in the places and at 20s or so, i’ll roll the dice. He shouldn’t be too far off the pace either. It may be significant Bass isn’t here
Of the rest…
Well there’s nothing at a double figure price that would annoy me really. I suppose Tom George’s at 16s may leave me pondering a bit but I thought he needed more and may not be that well handicapped now.
Of the single figure ones… well if Tobefair wins aged 10 from this weight/mark, all credit to him. I thought it may happen quick enough but he is the class element, solid. Not that I wanted to dive in at 7s. Flinck and Honest Vic have to prove their stamina and the odd other niggle, in the context of price. But I wouldn’t be shocked if either relished it, but just not enough there for me at the odds. Lacey’s and Skelton’s are unexposed and in great form, but i’m not sure what they’ve been beating and need more. Track/level of oppo a question for all that they couldn’t have been more impressive – one of them may take it but I was happy to leave at 6s or so.
I thought he looked worth a go at 8s. I’ll hope the rain stays away but it shouldn’t be worse than GS. I think he needs decent ground and his Scottish National 3rd still sticks in the mind, given how inexperienced he was. He really should be having a decent season. Hemmings has reduced his string but kept him, which I’d hope is significant and given he’s a staying chaser, the plan must surely be The Grand National. If he’s up to that level he needs to start winning and climb the ratings a bit. Last season was a write off really given the proper soft ground he faced every time. I think he should prove well handicapped at some point and if he can lob along tracking the pace, he won’t be done for stamina after the last. Hopefully Jonjo has him fit – up to him- but at 8s i’ll chance him. Given he needs decent ground, it makes no sense to me to prep him for some soft ground target in Nov/Dec. He hits a few of my trends pointers for this and if he’s a1 he will run a big race. He’s generally a sound jumper and one of the few in here where there should be more to come, working his way up the ratings, rather than down (or holding steady).
Of the rest…
Frodon, a legend in his own right really, may take some stopping – Paul says he’s looking burly and will come on for the run -but of course that may not stop him and he may surprise his trainer – that’s happened before. He can win from this mark, the weight and I think he stays – well he stays 25f in a small field when dictating, this may be different – but he’s tough and this could be his trip this year. 11/2 could look decent, and I wouldn’t put you off a saver but I was happy to leave him today.
Cobra De Mai has been well found, maybe tipped up somewhere – yes he’s well handicapped and he’s best on good. Last time was prop a prep and the CP return. But he can hit a fence, be patiently ridden. Although when he won over this distance here last April 19 off 142, he made all. That was a poor race though. I wasn’t convinced by him, not at what is now 9/2, 4s. But the market suggests he will give me something to think about.
Manofthemoment is a nice horse but I didn’t feel overpriced- this is a new test for him and he needs more. He may well show it, but at 9/2 I was just about happy to leave him. Had he got course form that may have been different. This should be different than a C3 around Bangor, and he was scruffy over the odd one there.
West Approach can beat me, hard to get right and needs delivering to perfection, for all that he has ability. 10 now though and Tizzard is as yet firing on all cylinders. Cogry is a fine servant and if he wins this aged 11, then fair play to him. I can smile as he crossed the line and not be annoyed I hadn’t waded in at 6s or so.
Bob Mahler – He usually needs 2/3 runs to tune up. If he were spot on he’d run a big race but they could have a plan for him. If he has a winning record fresh i’d be more interested. The yard are so so at the moment also. Maybe The Grand National is on his agenda this year also but he could have another staying pot in him – i’d probably aim him at The Eider if he were mine.
Sensulano is unexposed over fences so dangerous in that sense, for all that I was happy to leave her this time. She could run a big race though.
Captain Chaos is on a career high handicap mark, no headgear, can need the run these days and doesn’t have the best record around here. Happy to leave. As I was the other two.
Pace – Cogry and Frodon will be up there I should think. Captain can go forward but if here for the run maybe potter around further back. Cloth Cap should sit behind the pace, mid div, if here to run his race. He shouldn’t be held up out the back.
Best of luck,