Members Daily Post: 23/10/20 (complete)

Tipsx2, Quals, Showcase Day 1 pointers

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to follow. Punting Pointers HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

3.35 Chelt

#1 – On The Slopes – 1.5 points win – 5/1 (gen) UP (5th), -1.5 solid until after the last, ran as if needing it. Good spin. Winner in a different league.

#2 – Beat The Judge – 1/2 point win – 13/2 (bet365/WH) 6/1 (UniB) 3rd, decent effort, struggled to lay up, maybe back up in trip, still got chases in him.

that’s all from me today, 8am, write up incoming…

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (5/35,15p, -5.2)

3.00 Chelt – Dragueneau (11/1 or shorter SP best) ♦ ♦ 18/1 UP

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/32, 7p, -16.2)

3.00 Chelt – Our Power (8/1<) H1 8/1 UP

4.10 Chelt – Lessankan (20/1<) 40/1 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am odds)

E Lavelle

(2/13,6p, -4.25)

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

Cheltenham Showcase Day 1

Pointers post HERE>>>

Course Winners

Age 4-8, 1+ course win (as per post above, listed below… those 11/1< SP do best, and 0 runs this season)

3.00 – Golan Fortune

3.35 – Northern Beau

5.15 – Benny’s Bridge / Magic Dancer

Trainer Pointers

I’ve numbered the pointers in the post above for PN / FOB, for reference…

1.50

    • Ask For Glory (PN, 4)
    • Global Flame (FOB, 1, 4)

2.25 

    • Soldier of Love (PN 3,4)
    • Ask Dillon (FOB, 1)

3.00

    • Imperial Elysian (FOB, 1?, 3,4)
    • Lungano Palace (FOB, 1?, 3)
    • Fix Sun (NH)
    • Hijack (NH)
    • Captain Tom Cat (DrN) H3

3.35 

    • Dolos (PN, 2,4)
    • Katpoli (Dr N)

4.10 

    • Art Approval (FOB, 1?, 3,4)
    • Pipesmoker (NH)

4.45 

    • Getaway Trump (PN, 2,3,4)
    • Fusil Raffles (NH)

5.15 

    • Wild Max (1,2,3)
    • Bennys Bridge (FOB, 1,2,3)
    • Nanabelle (NH)

 

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Tips…

My shortlist: Rouge Vif WON 4/1>5/1, On The Slopes 5th , Beat The Judge 3rd

On The Slopes

He has the best handicapping form in this I think and that Chelt race three starts back is possibly the strongest handicap chase form of last season/2020 to date. He swooped to the lead that day on The New Course, soft ground, and looked like the winner. But he just didn’t get home over the distance. Given his conquerors that day, Simply The Betts and Imperial Aura would go on to win Festival handicaps, it wasn’t a bad effort. The front three were miles clear. He’d win his next two starts at Kempton fairly comfortably, and they’ve produced a few winners also. In theory there should be more to come this year. This 16f could be ideal and i’d expect Wedge to be prominent and he may well try and lead, knowing he’s a ‘staying’ 16f horse. There’s a niggle that he may want further this year but I think a stiff 16-18f may be up his street. His last two RPRs have been career bests and his TS figures are solid. Obviously there’s a fitness question – Gordon’s chasers are 2/6,3p on their seasonal returns in recent weeks and this one ran well on his return last year at Uttoxeter, giving out late over 2m4f in soft. His trainer is also his work rider which is interesting – it may say something about how highly he’s thought off – but Chris G wouldn’t be the lightest, and that may help with his fitness. We shall see. I thought 5s was a tad overpriced and of the ‘handicappers’ in this, he’s the best by a street. But he’s got to run his race. I didn’t want to miss out if he did as I think he’s the one to beat from this mark/weight.

Beat The Judge

He’s fit, in form, progressive and ran well at the Festival in the County, so has experience of this hill, if not the fences. That is the question – a niggle over some of his jumping but he’s entitled to be improving and when he’s right, he’s decent. This will be a test for him but if jumping, I thought he had the ‘summer form’ horses beat, some of their form tying in. More on those shortly. His fitness may count for plenty, he travels with enthusiasm and stays a bit further. He will be in there pitching if taking to this chase track I think. I’ve decided I don’t really want more than 2 points on any race I play in and i’m also going to do an about turn on the use of 1/2 points as the season progresses, esp EW I think when price/places etc allows. We shall see, but the ‘big race journey’ needs to be a little less bumpy at times, maybe sacrificing that for less profit long term, but a healthier punting head.

The main danger…?

Rouge Vif – yes yes, we all know i’ve picked the wrong one of the top 2! I will be disappointed if one of these three doesn’t take this, but we shall see. I wasn’t sure 4s was overpriced as such given twice he has failed to get up this hill – it’s possible that was because of soft ground, and he’s had another summer at grass to mature. Trainer/owner won this last year with one in the high 150s and he will be fit. But will he get up the hill? I also wondered whether 16f, good, on this Old Course (tighter/less galloping than New Course) may happen a bit too quickly for him. I’m not sure. Or his class means he can easily lob along and hold a position. I thought his form was solid, but not spectacular. To date anyway. I thought giving 13lb to On The Slopes would be tough, if they run their races. But maybe his class will win out. In the end just a couple of niggles that both put me off at his price, and made me take him on.

Of the rest…

I didn’t like anything else (at the prices) and if they take it, so be it. In some sort of order of preference…

Ballywood hasn’t won since March 19 but only 6 runs since I suppose and plenty of those on deep enough ground – 6s is fair but not overly generous for me. He gets his ground and in fairness didn’t have it last winter, and this may have been the plan – although I can’t see him finishing ahead of Beat The Judge on that Fontwell run, for all that he no doubt needed it. But he does have chase experience here, ran ‘ok’ in The Grand Annual and maybe that will allow him to turn the tables. I think he shapes as if crying out for 2m4f but if they go hard he should be staying on up the hill. I thought some may have more toe but I could be wrong. Interesting and no forlorn hope, but not interesting enough for me at 6s, only 1 point bigger than On The Slopes, who’s form to date is on a different level. He’s definitely fit though although can be more patiently ridden. I won’t be putting you off him, and would prefer him to Scardura.

Scardura is unexposed but does need to step up – but he is fit and in form, and that may count for plenty. This will be a new test for him. He did finish ahead of Beat The Judge at Stratford, but only just, BTL outpaced a bit that day, another 100 yards and he goes past him. His course/festival form, even though over hurdles, swung the balance also for me. I didn’t want to wade in at 5s for all that he has an unexposed profile.

Hatcher is on a career high mark, can pull, first run here, his level of form only so so. And he can be held up cold. Not for me, but a LTO winner.

Dolos – surely they’ll be trying to get his mark down a bit – hard to place, he’s classy, but just a very good handicapper who needs it to fall right. He’s won the same handicap at Sandown the last two seasons, in Feb, off 149 and 157 – I wonder if that’s the plan again, a couple of quiet runs (hopefully needing it today), drop 3-5lb, and rock up there again. This is his 16th chase and I would like to think one of the others is better handicapped than him for all that Nicholls continues in flying form.

The others have even more questions. Katpoli can need the run and can clout a fence or two, and even at his best would struggle against some of these. Doitforthevillage is 11 now and has always needed the run previously, for all he likes it around here. Surely not. Norther Beau likes it around here and may run her race, but her form doesn’t match some in here. On a career high mark now, to overcome, and her win here last Dec is now 0/21, 6p, and wasn’t the deepest – nowhere as deep as this. Questions, but may nab a place. Movie Legend is 10, exposed, and as yet hasn’t shown the form to suggest he could take this, if those near the top of the market run up to form.

Azzuri looks in the grip of the handicapper, highest winning mark 132 – That’s not saying he can’t win from 138 of course but most trainers, esp with an 8YO/19 chases, may try to get them back to around that mark i’d have thought, before having them spot on. I wonder if they’ve targeted that Ayr handicap in April that he hacked up in 2019, and are working backwards. Although there was talk of him being aimed at The Topham last April, before it was called off. So, maybe they’ll try that again – I can see that suiting given his bold jumping/front running style when at his best. He hasn’t done too much in three runs this season to date though.

This must be too hot for Western Miller, and he looks a bit out of sorts.

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Pace wise…

Northern Beau can go forward, but may not be as quick as some in here. Western Miller can be up there. I suspect Rouge Vif and On The Slopes will want to be very handy, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re 1-2 in some order within the first 4/5 f. They should be in a ‘no excuses’ position anyway. Beat The Judge – hopefully doesn’t have him too far back, just behind the pace setters in mid pack I suspect.

GL with any fancies,

Josh

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. No joy on Thursday on the all weather, 0/2.

    Two for Cheltenham on Friday –

    3.00, Captain Tom Cat – trainer in form, 7LB claimer takes weight off, Will go from the front. 1 point each way.

    5.15, Benny’s Bridge – course and distance winner, trainer in OK form, won at this meeting in 2019. 2 points win.

    Horses running on Friday that ran at this meeting in 2019:

    1.50, Topofthecotswolds (was pulled up); 3.00, Golan Fortune (14th of 17); 3.35, Doitforthevillage (4th of 11) and Northern Beau (6th of 11); 4.45, Getaway Trump (3rd of 4); 5.15, Benny’s Bridge (won a handicap chase of 13 runners) and Halling’s Comet (4th in the race won by Benny’s Bridge).

    Good luck Martin

  2. The staying chases defo more my thing
    But surely Doctor Duffy is even slightly over priced 2moz
    i dont like how much he’s been run so far but could counter that with that he’s making the trip so must be here in good health and to win
    A good place effort behind Caberet Queen and beat that Munster National winner 9L a few races back
    Just that has an advantage in this field as definatly not a novice. Galvin short enough now, no trip worries for DD either
    iv bet 7’s anyways

    1. DD has had plenty of races though, know he collided with a rival LTO and didn`t really get a race, but, GALVIN is different gravy and I think the others are just playing for place money. This is horse racing though and if DD wins i`ll doff my cap!

      1. Fair play there Stewart spot on
        Think iv let the price cloud me there
        Dont normally back horses with that much running into them already, unsure as to why they’v made the trip over with that run, or maybe horse just poss not good enough plain as.
        Worth a play in the novices tho against unraced jumpers against more experienced one’s, Galvin was a bet there wasn’t he but always struggle with the shorter prices myself, in truth that should of just been a no bet race

  3. A blank day on the winning front yesterday but we try again. A place at 28/1 Bardd if ew.

    Moomba…………….14/1
    15:25Newbury
    Via Serendipity…….14/1
    16:35Newbury
    Danzan…………….. 14/1………..Aberama Gold 16/1, Broken Spear 18/1 my alternatives.
    14:40Doncaster
    Sir Charles Punch…11/1
    16:25Doncaster
    Hooroo………………16/1
    17:03Doncaster
    Movie Legend……..25/1
    15:35Cheltenham
    Double Martini……20/1
    18:00Newcastle

    Mike

  4. poor day yesterday swapped ilmig for tiger roll and changed my mind over mr scaramanga which won at 25/1 and went for catch my breath….. these days happen.
    yesterdays list had 2 wins and 3 places
    todays c3+ video replay list
    NEWBURY
    15-25 ben lilly / berkshire savvy / daysan
    16-00 with respect / jumaira bay / typhonn ten
    16-35 eye of the water / punchbowl flyer / additional
    DONCASTER
    13-00 victim / heights of abraham / titan
    14-40 tinto / tranchee / danzan
    15-15 hiroshima / stargazer / ocean wind
    15-50 astro king / junkanoo
    my picks
    STARGAZER 10/1 ran well last time out and won with a bit in hand and only up 2lb for that today. has won on the soft. should go well again today. overpriced in my opinion.

    thats all for today as always good luck. 🙂

  5. ITV races, some ew pokes
    Doncaster.
    2-40. Aberama Gold 14-1(broken Spear 18-1)
    3-15. Stargazer 14-1 (Hochfeld 20-1)
    Cheltenham.
    1-50. only 7 run so have had a couple of quid on Domaine De L’Isle 18-1 with sky money back if 2nd or 3rd
    3-00. Yeavering Belle 16-1 6p (Our Power 9-1)
    3-35. Hatcher 10-1 5p (Northern Beau 28-1)
    not on telly
    5-15. Hallings Comet 40-1 6p (Byron Flyer 16-1)

  6. Time is against me, so, unfortunately no write ups, may stick something up if i get time.

    Cheltenham
    15:00
    IMPERIAL ELYSIAN 1pt win 12/1 gen (hope some of you were on AP)
    LUNGARNO PALACE 1pt win 20/1 gen

    15:35
    ON THE SLOPES 1pt win 5/1 gen
    AZZURI 1pt win 20/1 gen

    17:15
    BENNY THE BRIDGE 1pt win 9/2 gen
    MAGIC DANCER 1pt win 7/1 gen

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    1. GL as always Stewart – we don’t do too badly when agreeing from memory – On The Slopes – I just hope he doesn’t need it but if he’s fit think he could make 5s look generous, we shall see.

      I’ve left the C3 handicaps/hurdles but did have a quick flick through – can see why you’d be interested in Fergals – you’d think Magic Dancer is running a very big race in the last, i’d be mildly surprised if he wasn’t in the places given his course form/mark etc, just whether something in there less exposed, but they’ve all go questions also/may need the run etc. Hits the ‘course form’ angle above also.

      Anyway, best of luck as always, suspect you’ll be having a few exciting runs after the last hopefully!

    1. Ha, thanks Chris – well, i’ll just never get that excited by a Flat handicap sadly, however hard I try!! And the ‘less is more’ for the jumps ensures a clear, fresh enough, head come Thursday>Sat/Sun. You can’t cut corners with those races, win lose or tailed off – and i’d rather spend my time getting stuck into 2-5 races a week in depth. We shall see how it goes – Adam will do his thing in non feature handicaps. All will be well.
      Josh

  7. No good on Tuesday 0/2

    Results to date; 4/14 (8places) + 13.3

    One for tonight at Newcastle

    17.30 Beatbybeatbybeat 1pt e/w 14/1 (bits of 16 available) – she normally runs at Wolverhampton over slightly further, so stiff mile here should suit – also has decent draw. Brittain has a decent record of runners at Newcastle who are dropping in trip from LTO. Last time at Wolverhampton, she got caught in a pocket just as the race developed and that was that. The time before she was 2nd, ahead of stablemate Traveller who’s gone in 3 times since.

  8. Well you know as well as anyone else if you’re coming close with your picks you’re not doing anything wrong, just losing out to an imponderable and there’s plenty of those bloody things! Frustrating as it may be if you end up hitting the crossbar more often than not there’s bugger all you can do about it. The winners will come for you soon enough, lets hope you land on a biggie or two along the way eh!?

  9. Well

    I had DOLOS running to near Grade 1 level when he won at Sandown a couple starts ago

    Maybe he just likes Sandown or going right handed, I don’t know. But for a Nicholls handicapper , first time after a wind op, he looks a massive price especially with 5 places and only 13 runners.

    Four of the field are out of the handicap!

    16/1 ew with 5 places is a maxium play for me

  10. Newbury – red alert heavy ground flat card! Probably a watching brief for me.

    1240 – Achelois (7/4) put up a nice effort last time on soft ground at Newmarket. Skyrunner (13/2) is a nicely bred William Haggas newcomer.

    1310 – Wicklow (6/1) would be a tentative selection but there will be some nicely bred staying types. I am getting a soft spot for Kirsten Rausing’s horses and Aleas (10/3) runs in this for her. Keeper (8/1) is a nicely bred Frankel colt. Taraashoq (11/1) who already has a 2yo American namesake is a nicely bred colt by an underrated sire (Maxios) out of a Galileo mare. Roger Varian’s Camelot colt Title (9/1) is nicely bred too. This is a race that could throw up a nice type or 2 for next season.

    1340 – The best of those that have run is Eagle Terrace (9/4) but that was over a furlong less and on fast ground. My pick of the newcomers would be Chateau D’If (25/1), Forgotten Realm (22/1), Helm Rock (40/1). There are a lot of nice types on paper and so there should be for the price some of them have cost.

    1415 – another guessing game, Dutch Schultz is too short (9/4). Ensillar (7/1) is well bred and so is Gay Kelleway’s Atavique (28/1) but she was sold off in the summer and owners I would assume will be looking to make a buck on her pedigree.

    1450 – some progressive fillies lining up here, John Gosden’s Moonlight in Paris (5/1) looks good value. Steve Gollings’ Colony Queen (9/1) is a solid filly and she won this last year on heavy ground.

    1525 – decent race but not something I would get involved as most are trying this for the first time. Surely the handicapper has caught up with Ben Lilly (5/2) after being raised 31lbs since August. Frankel’s Storm (18/1) looks a big price but I would have severe doubts about the ground.

    1600 – I like Molls Memory (3/1) in this but she is not much of a price.

    1635 – Well I should have been looking forward to Lomu in this race but the ground is too soft and he’s such a big lad we’d have had to dig him out at the end. There are some nice types in here that love this ground, Eye of the Water (6/1) would be my selection. He has a good draw but my worry is they race him prominently which doesn’t suit the conditions.

    1706 – this is going to be a real slog and some National Hunt horses having a livener in this. I like the look of the 2 Robert Eddery horses, hold up tactics for Graceful Lady (11/1) may be more suitable than the prominent running Tynecastle Park (16/1)
    Doncaster

    1300 – good looking nursery as a pipe opener. Nothing stands out that has already run 1m so looking at London Palladium (7/1) or Mr Trick (10/1) who are the stand outs for me on their 7f form.

    1330 – nothing that has run particularly appeals. Some expensive fillies in here though, Rani of Jhansi (11/1) looks interesting.

    1405 – another 2yo race to scratch your heads over. Some expensive types by good trainers. Saveatree (28/1) might be a bigger price and has a nice pedigree but his trainer puts me off completely.

    1440 – Tranchee (4/1) should be up to winning this although I think he is slightly better over 7f. Tinto (15/2) looks a danger and I think Rathbone (20/1) offers value

    1515 – I think Ocean Wind (6/4) is a very smart horse and I assume destined for the jumps. I feel he is up to Group standard on the flat and could make more money going that way, but what do I know. Hochfeld (22/1) represents value but Mark Johnston may have run him into the ground, this is his tenth run since lockdown!

    1550 – Favourite Astro King (10/11) looks vulnerable. Amir Kabir (7/2) for me but Gary Moore’s Junkanoo (7/1) looks a big danger.

    1625 – very competitive 10f handicap, a few in here that are above class. I like Union Spirit (10/1) and Walkonby (20/1) at value prices.

    1703 – a bit less competitive than the other division and I like Ed Walker’s 3yo Bucephalus (6/1)

    Newcastle

    1630 – a very interesting staying handicap, with a slight preference for Well Funded (9/1)

    1700 – Mashkoorah (5/1) is good enough and is a bigger price with some interesting debutants.
    1730 – I really like top weight Twin Appeal (14/1) in this.
    1800 – Bavardages (13/2) is a consistent performer but I have a slight preference for The Throstles (10/1) and Abbotside (11/2). As a West Brom fan it should be The Throstles

    1830 – Shawshank (22/1) has been expensive to follow but he ought to pick up a nursery of this grade. EW tickle.

    1900 – Charlie Fellowes have probably found an ideal opportunity for Ivynator (13/8) here. Marco Botti’s Smart Qibili (16/1) looks good value though.

    1930 – For those that have run Habit Rouge (11/4) looks best. Sargasso Sea (11/4) wouldn’t have to be a world beater to win on debut.

    2000 – you can’t beat a stiff 7f Newcastle handicap to empty your wallet. Oriental Lilly (16/1) is a solid 7f handicapper at a nice price.

    2030 – this really is a poorer division than the previous race. Sassoon (3/1) will probably win again. I cannot really find a 7f alternative in this race, this stiff 7 may suit Tommy G (17/2)

    Not many bets to be had today. I am going to try some of Josh’s ideas and build from them and look at National Hunt races soon. Just want to get a feel of what works best for me!

  11. First day of Cheltenham, excited for the season ahead esp to see if Topofthegame comes back to his best.
    First and last race singles and double today.
    13.50 Midnight River 3/1
    17.15 Magic Dancer 6/1
    Good luck all!

  12. some great write ups guys and good luck today. Josh for what its worth I agree with you about On The Slopes, cruised through and took it up between 4 out and 3 out in the Timeform chase won by Simply The Betts and a fast run 2 miles looks up his street. Good luck all.

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