Members Daily Post: 22/10/20 (complete)

Quals, updates, other stats

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None.

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (5/34,15p, -4.2)

1.40 Carl – Elf De Re H2 ♦ ♦ 6/1 3rd -1, solid run, prob outclassed, winner looks useful – like a few of Sandy’s running as if will come on for it, and he surely needs further on that evidence, and prob much softer. His time will come, 2m4f+, another for Novice hncps maybe…

2.57 Ling – Hold That Taught ♦ ♦ 5/1 2nd, -1, decent run, I thought he was winning that all the way round, sadly just lacked the relative speed/exp of the winner after the last, jumping a tad ponderous at times, closed all the way to the line. VWs look fit on that evidence. 

4.34 Carl – Capac ♦ ♦ 15/2 UP, -1, .. no grand handicap debut plan with him, as yet he’s just not very good it seems. Travelled well, found sod all for pressure. 

5.15 Ling – Desque De Lisle ♦ ♦ 6/1 WON 6/1 > 10/3   very good ride, superbly judged, quick, slow, kick again. Wasn’t in much doubt, jumping warmed up, and as if he always had energy. The day needed one of them going in. Another day the yard would have had a double.

5.15 Ling – Do It For Thy Sen (12/1< best) ♦ ♦ 10/1 UP 20/1, market told the story there, never really went that well. 

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/29, 7p, -13.2)

3.10 Lud – Goa Lil (any, 10/1< best) H1 9/4 Fell last, got up, -1 

3.45 Lud – Don Juan Du Gouet (8/1<) 8/1 UP 8/1> 18/1 , -1

4.20 Lud – Robinshill (8/1<) 11/1 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am odds) WON 11/1 

 

E Lavelle

(2/13,6p, -4.25)

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

 

PLEASE READ

I have created a document with a few ‘pointers’ that may help when using the content here, or anywhere else for that matter, as a ‘way in/starting point’. This document focuses on national hunt handicaps and looks at, and explains, the Horse Race Base Ratings (H), which have returned above as well as looking at position in the weights, market position, last time out winners and pace/race position. Hopefully it may give you a few ideas on where to focus in your puzzle solving endeavours, if you so wish. In any case there’s some useful info in there to absorb/refer to.

YOU CAN READ THIS HERE>>>

 

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Racing To Profit STAR RATING

I’m going to play around with some subjective ‘star’ ratings just for Section 2. I’m thinking a four star scale…

♦  ♦  ♦  ♦

Well, ‘diamonds’. I don’t know if they’ll help or hinder really, any comments welcome. But I do always flick through the qualifiers and always make some sort of subjective judgement/confidence level based on how I look at a race etc. I don’t know if this will work or not – ideally i’d get to Jan and the x3/4 diamond horses have a high SR/profitable, the 2s do ok, and the 1s not so much. But we know what’s going to happen! 🙂 But, again, it may help you with shortlisting or in any case adds another dimension. I only had the idea yesterday and you may think it’s a naff one. Maybe i’ll trial it for the next 9/10 days and run a poll as to whether you find it useful. The crucial point is that a 1 or 2 star does not put you off backing them, or influences your own opinion as such, if you disagree. And in any case if you back something ‘systematically’ they may be irrelevant. It may transpire my quick fire subjective judgement isn’t that good at all! 🙂 I won’t be going through every runner and rider in depth etc. And most of the time it will be the afternoon before, without knowing the market/odds, which may be no bad thing.

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Additional Stats

I will release the Trainer Profiles report by early next week so you can pour over it. Thursday’s bunch look interesting – the sorts that are hard to weigh up, x3 making chase debut, another handicap hurdle debut, another only 2nd start over fences, x4 having their first run of the season (will they be fit?) and Lacey’s making hncp hurdle debut with the odd question to answer, in a poor race. Not the sorts of horses you could be overly bullish about with subjective eyes but nor would you fall off your seat if a few ran big races, given their unexposed profiles. So, we shall see… 

When Venetia’s chasers start appearing you know the winter game has well and truly arrived. Hold That Taught is a 5YO and in handicap/chases with those, she’s 12/40, 21p +47 SP in the last 5 years, 7/16, 10p +22 in the last 2 years,  which is one of those angles that may be worth noting down. We shall see if he can add to them before Jan 1st, I suspect he will and that he’s got stacks in hand over fences, just when he shows it. This is her first jumps runner since the return of racing post lockdown I think, so what stage they’re at it’s hard to know. But if he’s fit, and he jumps…well, we shall see. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. A 17/2 place and a loser on Wednesday.

    Two on the all weather on Thursday:

    6.30 Chelmsford, Kinsman – down one class, trainer in OK form, has won in this class. 1 point each way.

    7.15 Wolverhampton – Mokaman – down two classes, trainer has good course form, has won in this class. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  2. From 7 runners there were 3 NRs and 1 winner at 16/1 I will take that profit and run.

    Snookered @ 11/1
    13:40 Carlisle,
    Bardd @ 25/1
    15:45 Ludlow
    Magical Thomas @ 12/1
    15:45 Ludlow
    Dontminddboys @ 40/1
    16:53 Ludlow
    Dancing Doris @ 8/1
    13:15 Lingfield
    Redshank @ 11/1
    19:45 Wolverhampton
    Firmdecisions @ 25/1
    18:30 Chelmsford

    Mike

  3. COLINS BETS
    3.45 Ludlow The Garrison
    4.40 Wolverhampton Peachy Carnehan
    Chelmsford
    7.30 Zayriyan
    8.00 Fivehundredmiles
    8.00 Lilly Beach
    Colin

  4. Yesterdays c3+ & c4+ list had 2 winners and 3 places out of the 5 races.
    my picks LORTON was behind a wall of horses for most of the race and looking at the race they either need to drop him down in class a 7f or drop him down to 6f. i wont be looking at him again until he meets one or both criteria so he will go into the tracker and hopefully will recoup the loss at some point.
    today is an all weather affair for me and an interesting day at that.
    todays c4+ video replay list
    WOLVERHAMPTON
    16-05 pistoletto / el gaunche / top breeze
    18-45 siam fox / out of reason / deliberate attack
    CHELMSFORD
    17-30 hiroshi / sivestris / illustrator
    18-00 golden love / messalina / rest my case
    19-00 mr scaramanga / ajax tavern / catch my breath

    my picks
    PISTOLETTO 10/1 im going for the young taking on the older horses here ex A P O’Brien horse with descent 2yr old form running in listed company has changed hands and now drops back to 5f which on evidence ive seen is where he could be most effective. usually comes off the pace but i have a sneaky suspicion they might try something new today.
    HIROSHI 28/1 E/W dont actually think its gonna take a lot to win this one course and distance 4th on first appearance gonna ignore last run as something looked to be a miss. good value for a place at least plus we have the mighty Hollie Doyle to help us out here.
    GOLDEN LOVE 15/2 looks to of needed a stiffer test on debut and has it today. from a big owner and well bread. she’s had a warm up race. price looks big to me and should go well.
    CATCH MY BREATH 14/1 e/w i really have no idea why he’s this price two solid recent runs and won last time out with a bit in hand. bigger field so 4 places on offer. has to have each way claims at least on current form which is as good as anything else in the race.

    over in ireland
    NAVAN
    14-30 arcanears 7/2
    16-15 tiger roll 9/2 (could turn out to be bet of the day )

    the big each way
    WOLVERHAMPTON
    17-10 light bay 50/1

    thats all from me today as always good luck. 🙂

      1. Should have just waited until after racing Warren haha – and depending how it goes could have stayed that way!! 🙂 🙂 The comments etc have been a bit iffy since ‘I’ started the new web design / switched over some things back end. New site should be live within the next few days so hopefully that all sorts itself out.
        Josh

  5. A bit later posting today. The proper racing starts later:) I have also bought a horse today, he was too good to pass up and a former Geegeez syndicate horse. Elhafei will be going to David Loughnane in Shropshire. He will have some time off while he settles in before going for a middle distance AW campaign.

    Wolverhampton

    1605 – a cracking sprint with 2 horses I know well in Fizzy Feet and Leodis Dream. I think Ornate (11/1) is a decent shout for this though after running well in Group races. We did think about sending Lomu to this race (he has the track record around Wolves at 5f) but have opted for a learning exercise at Newbury tomorrow.

    1640 – I really like Peachey Carnehan, he always puts a shift in. This should be a good opportunity for Global Acclamation (11/2). He really should be good enough to win this low grade handicap.

    1710 – Frow (4/6) is an obvious as he is so well handicapped. Vincenzo Coccotti is well handicapped too and is much better value (6/1)

    1740 – Collinsbay ought to get his head in front but is no value (5/4). Interesting to see how Bakersboy (Kachy’s half brother) gets on. Dave Lowe’s other runner though has Richard Kingscote on board which may be a clue!

    1815 – Some interesting newcomers and a watching brief. I do like the breeding of Patroon (66/1) from an unfashionable stable.

    1845 – decent nursery and I quite fancy Alan King’s Out of Reason (16/1) who finished behind an impressive performance by Percy’s Lad at Salisbury. Quite a few could improve in this though.

    1915 – a 5f sprint nursery and the main danger to my selection, Kim Wexler, is a non runner. Disco Beats has been disappointing recently but if she can reproduce her Musselburgh maiden winning form she ought to win (12/1)

    1945 – Fair Power (9/2) has been knocking on the door recently and should be good enough. Tangramm (10/1) looks interesting. I know Dave Loughnane is hoping for a big run from Jeddeyd (12/1)

    2015 – Another chance for Kuwait Shield (8/1) in this. Less competitive IMO than division 1.

    Chelmsford

    1659 – a slog fest to watch and enjoy!

    1730 – Baba Reza (4/1) is a decent 2yo but I have a slight preference for Silvestris (3/1) over this trip.

    1800 – Paycheck (7/1) is a tentative choice in this fillies novice.

    1830 – a very trappy race Knowing Glance (16/1) , Araifjan (8/1) and Incognito (12/1) come joint top of my ratings. All reasonable prices and may take on all 3.

    1900 – cor my head hurts! Oslo (14/1) and Earth and Sky (13/2) have ran well over a mile. Some of these better horses look far better suited to 1m2f.

    1930 – you can usually find a sleeper in these low grade handicaps. Cashel (5/2) looks the best of a similar bunch and the 1st 3 in the betting look the best. The bigger priced horses look a little bit average.

    2000 – I assume Gates Pass is a non runner as I don’t see a price. Fivehundredmiles (4/1) instead then.

    2030 – sad to see 4 runners, Golden Rules will probably win but not something we can learn much from probably.

    These are not tips just my thoughts

    1. Good stuff again Nick , GL with any punts as always.
      Anyone who has the energy to go through such proper racing, racing by race, has my admiration! 🙂

      I have just had to search your colours etc in Racing Post! Good luck with the new acquisitions.

      You new to ownership, outright/own name/colours anyway? What’s the Loughnane connection? Always intrigued why people fall in with certain trainers etc – you do tend to build up loyalty etc.

      Elhafei has more wins in him you’d think, he could get better with age.

      1. He’s local to me (40 minute drive) and I have seen him improve horses for others. He is a young and hungry trainer and also quite strict in what he will take in as he wants to work with better horses as the yard matures. I am strict on what I am prepared to spend as it is very much a learning curve for me. So hopefully we work well as a team.

        It was only my intention to buy a low grade sprint handicapper for a bit of fun and syndicate out. The reason I have stuck with him is I have been really happy with the horses we have acquired so I won’t change what I think is a positive formula. I narrow the horses down on paper and I rely on the professionals to look at the physical specimen to make sure they are sound etc, we have passed up a lot for various reasons. Our first horse, Praxeology, needed the touch of a smaller yard. He didn’t seem to have any character when we got him but he has really come into himself now. His 2 runs so far have been positive, he couldn’t get a position after a poor draw at Wolverhampton and he ran his socks off at Catterick, he probably thought he’d won as the winner was on the other side of the track! Hopefully he goes back to Catterick next Tuesday.

        Lomu should have been running tomorrow at Newbury but the ground is heavy which is too soft for him, so we will keep him for an AW campaign over 5f and 6f. We’re really excited about him. He had a reputation of getting over excited at home and on the track but he has been a model professional and he still holds the track record at Wolverhampton over 5f. He really is a gentle giant, looks like a chaser not a sprinter! His half sister sold today at Goffs for £14k and her only run was in a bumper!

        We also have Apex King, who was trained by Dave Loughnane before and left him rated 90 last year. He has since dropped down the handicap and he appeared to be sore at the back when he was trained so we are in the process of resolving that and maybe that was a problem for him. Once he is back he is now only rated 75 so we are hoping he can progress again over 7f to 1m.

        We have 2 yearlings, Fortuna Dufflecoat who is by first season sire National Defense. He is a half brother to a black type mare, Alamode. What is rather spooky is that when I was updating my records with pedigrees tonight I discovered he has the same 3rd dam as Elhafei! Dufflecoat already looks like a 2yo.

        Our other yearling is called Willow Pillow, she’s a lovely grey filly by Zoffany out of a Verglas mare. She is a half sister to US stakes winner Divina Comedia. She looks a nice early type.

        It’s the hope that kills you but we are really pleased with them all and it really has been something positive our family can focus on in these depressing times. We appreciate we are lucky to be able to do this and my wife says “No more horses!”

        1. Superb Nick. Thanks for sharing – and yep, it is the hope that kills you, even when just a minor interest in one. Sounds like you’ll have plenty of fun with those. GL
          Josh

    1. Cheers, can’t count ‘officially’ sadly but hopefully someone may have had a nibble! In future I’ll be trying to research all angles without ‘odds caps’ etc, although that micro was 1/24, 4p, -9 with those bigger than 8s, and a handful had got stuffed already this season. That’s how it goes.

    1. Indeed, they needed one of them going in today! They’ve been going ok, esp as no odds caps and a few no hopers on paper at least. Place % sr is solid and if it stays around there that profit pile may hopefully only head one way!

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