Cheltenham Showcase Pointers (Updated/Complete)

Cheltenham trainer pointers, course winners, big race trends

 

Cheltenham ‘The Showcase’ Meeting

Below you can find a few trainer pointers covering the previous 5 meetings as well as a look at previous course winners. Following that there’s a look at x2 Handicaps on Saturday, with some stats/trends/trainer pointers.

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Trainer pointers for the previous 5 meetings…

 

Paul Nicholls

All runners : 29 bets / 9 wins / 11p / 31% sr / +14 SP / +20 BFSP / AE 1.53

Positive Pointers

    1. Aged 3-5: 7/16, 7p, +23 BFSP
    2. 16-19.5f: 7/19, 9p, +24
    3. 1+ run in prev 90 days: 6/10, 7p, +16
    4. Top 5 on last run: 9/17, 10p, +32
      • Won: 5/10, 6p, +10
    5. 7-10 career runs: 6/9, 6p, +25

 

Fergal O’Brien

All runners: 27 bets / 6 wins / 13p / 22% sr / +20 SP / +23 BFSP / AE 2.08

Positive Pointers

    1. 14/1 or shorter SP: 6/16, 10p, +34
    2. Races for conditions & amateurs: 3/7, 5p, +25
    3. Class 3: 4/12, 7p, +32
    4. Horse had 0-2 runs at Cheltenham: 6/21, 12p, +29

 

Others of Note

    • Nicky Henderson/Age 4-6: 4/17, 8p, +13
    • Dr Richard Newland/handicaps: 3/12, 4p, +18

 

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Previous Course Form

Thanks to Martin for making me do some more digging… we shall see if this research finds any winners this year…

Horses running at The Showcase Meeting with 1+ course wins… (last 5 meetings)

    • Aged 4-8: 59 bets / 15 wins / 24p / 25% sr / +19 SP / +31 BFSP
      • (all winners sent off 11/1 or shorter in the period… 15/44, 23p, +46 BFSP)
    • Those aged 4-8, having 1st run of the season…
      • 12/31, 16p, +39 BFSP … those sent off 11/1< … 12/25, 16p, +45 BFSP

 

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Big Race Stats / Trends / Trainer Pointers

Cheltenham / Saturday

 

3.15 : Pertemps Qualifier

11/164, 38p

11/11 20/1< SP (bigger: 0/46, 3p)

10/11 yet to win above C2 Level (had: 1/31, 7p)

    • 9/11 highest class win was 2 or 3: 9/89, 23p

9/11 had 2+ runs at Cheltenham (0-1: 2/83, 18p) (8+ : 0/14,0p)

9/11 had 1+ hurdle runs at Cheltenham (0: 2/67, 16p)

8/11 Top 3 on last start (8/83, 23p)

Other

    • 0 runs prev in October: 0/28, 6p

Trainers (all renewals/11)

    • NTD: 2/7, 4p
    • P Hobbs: 2/9, 4p
    • X1: Mrs D Hamer, H J Evans, W Greatrex/ N Henderson/ N Gifford/ E Williams
    • D Skelton: 0/6,0p
    • D Pipe: 0/16, 3p
    • Jonjo O’Neill: 0/8,1p

 

3.50: C2, 25f Handicap Chase

12/158, 39p

12/12 16/1< SP (bigger: 0/39, 1p)

12/12 yet to win above listed level (had: 0/29, 6p)

12/12 had run over 25f+ (had not: 0/26, 4p)

    • 8/12 had run over 29.5f+ in career (8/59, 21p)

12/12 had 0-3 runs this season (4+ : 0/27, 3p)

10/12 had 0 runs in prev 90 days (1+ : 2/60, 9p)

9/12 had run over fences at Cheltenham (had not: 3/53, 6p)

Other

    • Top Weights (inc joints): 0/16, 1p
    • Horse had 0-5 chaser runs: 0/25, 6p
    • Horse ran 1-25 days ago: 0/33, 6p

Trainers (prev 12 renewals)

    • P Hobbs: 5/14, 6p
    • X1: NTD, D Bridgewater, R Curtis, N Mulholland, T George, C Longsdon, Jonjo O’Neill
    • Fergal O’Brien: 0/7, 2p
    • C Tizzard: 0/9, 4p
    • P Nicholls: 0/8, 1p

**

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. I do not have the time to dig the figures out but I was wondering what the stats would be for:

    Course winner in the past two years?

    Ran at this meeting in 2019?

    Have I discovered a diamond or two???

    1. Hi Martin…

      Hmm… you may have! 🙂

      Well, I can’t look at who ran at this meeting last year/previously in HRB… I can look at those who’ve previously won at the meeting, and not much to shout about there… 2/28, 8p, -21 SP last 5 years.

      Course winner more interesting… again I can’t look whether they won at track in last two years, but in entire career, and looking at previous 5 meetings…

      So, overall, horses with at least x1 course win… 16/95, 31p, -8 SP, +6 BFSP. AE 1.13

      Digging into those stats… just the hurdle races… 7/30, 10p, +18 BFSP

      Back to the started set, 1+ course win…

      Aged 4-8: 59 bets / 15 wins / 24p / 25% sr / +19 SP / +31 BFSP

      All winners sent off 11/1 or shorter in the period… 15/44, 23p, +46 BFSP

      Ignoring odds, of those aged 4-8, that were having first run of the season…

      12/31, 16p, +39 BFSP … of those sent off 11/1< ... 12/25, 16p, +45 BFSP ... Benny's Bridge hits that last stat in the 5.15... also Fergal... * Thanks for musing, i'd best include some of those course winner stats above/save/post! Cheers, Josh

      1. OK, well done.

        A few sparklers there if not full blown diamonds.

        I will have a look at the who ran at this meeting in 2019 this evening when I have time and report back.

        I am off to play golf this afternoon and it is time consuming searching for golf balls in the rough this time of year!!

        Good luck Martin

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