Members Daily Post: 21/10/20 (complete)

Quals, updates, video etc

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None.

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (4/29,12p, -6.2)

3.35 Here – Red Nika H2  ♦  ♦  ♦  7/2 3rd, -1 … I didn’t like how he went through that/responded to pressure. Under the pump early,  not sure if inexperienced or all of those placed efforts now posing a question over his attitude, having won a point but now 0/5 under rules. We shall see. 

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/29, 7p, -13.2)

5.30 Font – Princess Ruby 5/1 UP -1 

E Lavelle

(2/13,6p, -4.25)

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

 

PLEASE READ

I have created a document with a few ‘pointers’ that may help when using the content here, or anywhere else for that matter, as a ‘way in/starting point’. This document focuses on national hunt handicaps and looks at, and explains, the Horse Race Base Ratings (H), which have returned above as well as looking at position in the weights, market position, last time out winners and pace/race position. Hopefully it may give you a few ideas on where to focus in your puzzle solving endeavours, if you so wish. In any case there’s some useful info in there to absorb/refer to.

YOU CAN READ THIS HERE>>>

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Racing To Profit STAR RATING

I’m going to play around with some subjective ‘star’ ratings just for Section 2. I’m thinking a four star scale…

♦ ♦ ♦ ♦

Well, ‘diamonds’. I don’t know if they’ll help or hinder really, any comments welcome. But I do always flick through the qualifiers and always make some sort of subjective judgement/confidence level based on how I look at a race etc. I don’t know if this will work or not – ideally i’d get to Jan and the x3/4 diamond horses have a high SR/profitable, and the 1s and 2s, not so much. But we know what’s going to happen! 🙂 But, again, it may help you with shortlisting or in any case adds another dimension. I only had the idea yesterday and you may think it’s a naff one. Maybe i’ll trial it for the next 9/10 days and run a poll as to whether you find it useful. The crucial point is that a 1 or 2 star does not put you off backing them, or influences your own opinion as such, if you disagree. And in any case if you back something ‘systematically’ they may be irrelevant. It may transpire my quick fire subjective judgement isn’t that good at all! 🙂 I won’t be going through every runner and rider in depth etc. And most of the time it will be the afternoon before, without knowing the market/odds, which may be no bad thing.

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A look back at the C2 from Market Rasen and a brief look back at The Durham National. Hopefully I say something of interest…

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. A winner at 11/1 bet at 14s. Brian the Snail seemed popular with a couple of others that maybe an omen for the future.

    Whiskey ‘N’ Chips….12/1
    16:30Newmarket
    I’dliketheoption…….12/1
    15:00Hereford
    Langafel Bee……….14/1
    14:00Fontwell
    Honorable………….12/1
    16:23Fontwell
    No Way Jack………..12/1
    17:05Gowran Park
    Alba Del Sole……….16/1
    19:45Kempton
    Fard…………………..16/1
    20:15Kempton

    Mike

  2. No joy on Tuesday 0/2.

    Two at Fontwell on Wednesday.

    3.10, The Russian Doyen – returns from a long absence here, may outclass these? Has won in this class. 1 point each way.
    3.45, Waikiki Waves – has had a pipe opener, course and distance winner, 5/10 wins over fences, has won in this class. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  3. yesterday list had 4 winner and 5 places from the 6 races and brian the snail decided to run to his ability so not a bad day at all yesterday.
    todays c3+ turf & c4+ aw list
    NEWMARKET
    14-10 symbolic power / harlem soul
    14-25 genuflex / oman / act of wisdom
    15-20 lorton / sun bear / sunset kiss
    15-35 royal touch / alpine stroll / hurricane lane
    KEMPTON
    19-15 serenading / clinician / tuscan oasis
    my picks
    LORTON 11/1 fairly consistent type trying a new trip today its hard to say whether he needs further or to drop back to 6f but his best form does seem to lean towards the softer stuff which he has today. if 1m doesn’t suit then he will definitely will be one to watch at 6f but at 11/1 today its worth a go in the hope connections have got it right with the distance.

    over in ireland
    GOWRAN PARK
    13-45 oh say 9/2
    16-35 free park 28/1

    as always good luck for today 😉

  4. NOT A TIP (OBVIOUSLY 😉 ) Just an observation 😉
    8.15 K MERCERS = won this race last year … likes a prep run … has an almost identical rehearsal as last year and i am sure they would like to win the race again .. just not sure on jockey booking .. but she is pretty good 😉 and off bottom weight with the 5lb jockey allowance ….. must be worth an e/w for me and heavier on the places as is my way mostly 😉

    have fun chaps n chapettes

    LGB
    p.s. Josh .. i think you should use Smiley emoji’s not diamonds ..lol 😉

  5. Hi there, only me with a little ante post advice again, prices are out for some of the races on Friday at Cheltenham and i can`t resist playing…to that end I think you only need to be with two trainers on this Friday at Cheltenham and that is Gordon Elliott and Fergal O`Brien, the latter is where I`m sticking my pin money and no more so than in the form of IMPERIAL ELYSIAN in the 3:00 on the Friday, let me start by saying Fergal targets Cheltenham (I know everyone does, but, these two early season meetings in the autumn are his cup of tea) he had 3 winners from 5 runners on the Friday of this meeting last year and in 2018 had RED HOT CHILLY at the November meeting at a whopping 33/1, know that was a fluke, but, it definitely looks as though he gets them ready early enough and snatches these early season tasty prizes..12/1 on offer before obvious deductions, but, some of his others are at tasty prices also, he has 6 declared for the Friday at this stage….

    1. To be fair, wouldn`t put you off backing LUNGARNO PALACE also, 25/1 is whopping odds for a horse that hasn`t finished outside the top 4 each time he`s been to Cheltenham….

  6. Hi Josh
    I found your video replay review very insightful. As you know I base most of my selections on what I see using video replays on the flat racing but I’ve struggled to make it work for me over the sticks. But you’ve gave me a few pointers as to a possible way in and a slightly different approach for the jumps. Hopefully it’ll allow me to contribute a little more over the winter.
    Thanks 🙂

    1. No problem Warren, glad it made you ponder/consider something or other, always part of the aim! I can probably improve my replay watching skills but with chases there’s always something to pick up in terms of race position, how horses travelled, when they cut out, how they jumped, were they able to hold a position etc and yep a horse being held up who has run well when racing prom etc.

  7. Newmarket

    1300 – a trappy 2yo contest which should be used for education. Entwine (5/1) and Urban Violet (4/1) have already run quick enough over 7f to win a contest of this nature but it wouldn’t take a world beater to beat them. Princess Elektra looks well bred on paper (14/1)

    1330 – another watching brief. Mutasaabeq is one that looks an interesting prospect at 11/1. Useless information of the day is that this is the 2nd 2yo this year to have this name. The other one has won 2 out of 3 races in the States and is already a stakes winner!

    1410 – another watch and learn. According to my figures Symbolic Power (7/4) has been the quickest over 10f and it wasn’t quick enough to win a race of this class, please note that is often the case in these stamina sappers for 2yos. Arthur’s Realm has been the quickest but over 1m (4/1). Something will either be a middle distance star of the future or something will trudge along and outstay them. These early 10f 2yo races can be won at a slow speed, it’s a slog for the babies.

    1445 – not a race I would want to get involved but we could see something decent here. Some have already posted good times. Oman has been unlucky to meet some decent opponents after posting decent times over 1m. Act Of Wisdom looks solid over this trip but is short and others of this potential can improve now they are stepped up. I will enjoy this as a watching brief.

    1520 – some nice fillies and I prefer 2 of the 3yos. Slight preference for Zezenia (4/1) over Manaabit (7/1)

    1555 – Royal Touch is good enough for this but at the current price (4/9) should be avoided. Another watching brief.
    1630 – An interesting nursery. A 3 way split for me, Elusive Artist (4/1), Ma Cheria Amour (33/1) and Sayifyouwill (13/2). Ma Cherie Amour may be an each way choice here.

    Kempton Park

    1610 – Noble Masquerade (10/3) really ought to be winning this. He put in a solid performance in the Lavazza Stakes at Ascot.

    1640 – a low grade nursery where Peerless (5/2) is deserved favourite. Imperial Dawn (13/2) looks interesting dropping back in trip. Not a race I would get involved in though.

    1715 – Quite an interesting 2yo fillies novice. I quite like the look of Sunset Bay (9/2). There are some interesting newcomers though.
    1745 – Division 2 of the 2yo fillies novice. Short priced Looktotherainbow (4/7) has solid enough form but there are a few here who could win on debut and I certainly wouldn’t touch an odds on favourite. On breeding I do like the look of Jury Pico at 22/1 but nothing I would put my hard earned on.

    1815 – more 2yo action to be used as a learning curve. Nothing stands out in the market. Tataboq is well bred but was sold off on the cheap in August. Be interesting to see how he goes at 80/1!

    1845 – yet more 2yo, nothing stands out that has run already. I think Major J is interesting at 16/1. Well bred and not from one of the “obvious” stables.
    1915 – Serenading is progressing well and ran an impressive time at Newcastle recently. She looks good value at 6/1. Top weight Dancing Feet has been tried at a higher level and would be my alternative at 11/2.
    1945 – Some of the better horses appear to be trying this instead of their preferred 7f. Old boy Nezar looks value at 11/1, proven over the trip and has ran well here in the past.

    2015 – some of these are better over 5f than 6f. When you own a horse rated below 55 you have to go for what you can get into! Twelve Diamonds (22/1) should be better than this level but he has disappointed over 6 and should find an opportunity over the minimum trip soon. Gherkin is the obvious choice over this trip but 11/4 is short. I am sure they must be expecting more from Passional (8/1) and if you twisted my arm that would be my selection. A low grade race to watch and enjoy.

    1. GL Nick and thanks for posting – quite the effort. I mean you didn’t do too badly yesterday, let’s hope for more of the same today! Although I’ve probably just cursed you there, apols.
      Josh

  8. Galvin
    6g Gold Well – Burren Moonshine
    RA Bartlett
    422-111
    RPR 155c OR 148c
    The National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham is made for this lad. It’s hard to believe it,
    but he didn’t win over fences until July of this year, when he won over 2m5f at
    Killarney. He’s won two soft races since. The plan was the Galway Plate but we had to
    rule him out on the morning of the race, which was unfortunate. I’d say there’s a nice
    pot in him and the National Hunt Chase is the plan. He was second at Cheltenham
    last season and ran well there as a hurdler, so it seems the logical aim. There’s a
    Grade 3 chase at Cork next month and we could run him in that before putting him
    away for Cheltenham.

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