Members Daily Post: 20/10/20 (Video Review)

Quals, updates

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None.

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (4/28,11p, -5.2)

2.50 Exet – Kittys Light (any, 20/1< best)  3/1  WON 3/1> 9/2 

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/28, 7p, -12.2)

None.  

E Lavelle

(2/13,6p, -4.25)

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

 

A look back at the C2 from Market Rasen and a brief look back at The Durham National. Hopefully I say something of interest! 

 

 

Trainer Profiles – I haven’t shared this research yet, but will do soon! I thin I will just send it out free by early next week at the latest. The research is obv all done but needs crafting into a ‘report’. I’m aware that having the research/logic/results is useful for a) having any confidence in the qualifiers b) adding context when using as a ‘way in’ etc 

Horse Race Base – I will bring back the H codes, using their ratings, next to the qualifiers above – I just need to do some research on what’s best to highlight for jumps handicaps, and the % of races won info etc, so again they’re of some use. That will be complete on Tuesday and the ‘H’ will return from Wednesday. 

Really Super– has been entered in The Old Roan on Sunday and if the weather forecast is correct, should be taking her chance with any luck. She’ll only run if there is ‘good’ somewhere in the going description, which there should be. 19 entries at this stage. Hopefully Janika doesn’t run, as she’ll be a few lbs out the handicap if he does. But it could be a deep enough contest that will tell us plenty about her, whether that Summer Plate win his her level, or she can go close in a race of this nature. Her race fitness/ sharpness should hopefully count for plenty. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. 2/2 on Monday and a 15 point profit, which is a good start to the week.

    Two at Newcastle on the sand on Tuesday, both 1 point each way.

    3.00, Koropick, had a run back after a three year break, course and distance winner, draw OK.

    4.10, Top Attraction, won last time out, trainer in OK form, course and distance winner, has won in this class, draw OK.

    Good luck Martin

  2. Again no winner but 2 places if going ew.

    Dragon Glass……….14/1
    14:35Yarmouth
    Araka Li……………..14/1
    15:10Yarmouth
    Cottonopolis………. 28/1
    15:45Yarmouth
    Gunmetal…………..20/1
    15:00Newcastle
    Brian The Snail…..14/1
    15:00Newcastle
    Purple Knight……..20/1
    16:10Newcastle
    Ustath……………….16/1
    16:40Newcastle
    Choosey…………….25/1
    17:40Newcastle

    Mike

    1. Great stuff on the snail Michael well done 🙂
      Had a bit more confidence in him seeing you had already picked him.

  3. yesterdays list had 2 wins and 5 places and my picks both well beaten so best not to dwell on them to much.
    todays aw c4+ video replay list
    NEWCASTLE
    14-25 moraaheq / masham / cordouan
    15-00 brian the snail / illusionist / fresh
    15-35 significantly / yazaman
    KEMPTON
    18-40 juan les pins / phucket power / strong power
    19-10 mayfair spirit / busy street / noonday gun
    19-40 berrahi / dubai welcome / alpin king
    my picks
    BRIAN THE SNAIL 11/1 has plenty of ability but he is one of those you have to catch at the right time. he won here earlier in the year off a similar mark. he is a risky proposition but he is potentially well treated and at 11/1 i think he is overpriced on his best form.

    as always good luck today 🙂

  4. Friday evening went well with Traveller and Deolali both going in and Susie Javea also obliging with a place.

    Results to date; 4/12 (8places) +17.3

    Two for these evening on the more speculative side;

    5.10 Rockley Point 1pt e/w 3places (16/1) – picked last time too when he ran poorly. Back down below winning mark from earlier this year, down in trip from LTO and 5lb claimer on board too.

    5.40 Choosey 1pt e/w 4places (25/1) – Also down in trip and below last winning mark. Recent runs have been hit and miss – did win at similar time last year over 5f at Wolverhampton.

    1. hi Steve M
      hope you don’t mind asking .. but i make Traveller 4.10 N another good bet today ??? am i missing something .. as i am thinking you may have mentioned if you also thought it had a chance … no worries .. just a thought 🙂

      cheers
      George

      1. Hi George – wouldn’t put you off, I might have a tiny stakes go given he’s drifted to 5’s in a few places. He’s in good form and Harry Russell offsetting the penalty and seems to do well here – only slight negative is drawn in stall 1. I did have a look at the race and was tempted by Curfewed at the 12/1 4 places but he’s in stall 2 so decided against it.

  5. A couple of weeks ago I randomly caught Mick Quinn chatting on racing tv about his horse Inver Park, blathering on about how great he was and how great he’s going to be and all that. It’s a 2yo I don’t bet on 2yo’s nor do I let interviews or inside info sway me in how I bet.
    So £40 @ 5.7 on Inver Park in the 14:00 at Yarmouth it is then.
    Discipline is everything in this game.
    I’ll do well to remember that.
    Goodbye £40.

    1. Nothing really – I just decided all content will be jumps focussed from now on through to end of April.

      The research is here… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Micro-Monday-Newcaste-Research-1.pdf

      It was doing so so, since live, small sample mind… 3/25, 7p, -5.5 to end of Sept.

      But Nov-April is all going to be jumps from me on here, certainly in daily content. I may do the odd report/video for those who enjoy the All-weather but nothing will be posted daily from myself. There’s a few in the comments who like to focus on the AW though.

      Josh

    2. hi anon
      from my notes on Josh’s Newcastle sire angle i saved .. i have qualified today ……..
      (25) AW NEWCASTLE NO JOSHING ABOUT STALLION SYSTEM 2.25 = Newcastle 4 Crossford (IRE)
      But bearing in mind my oven readies are as cold as anything at the moment …. maybe best left alone … bit like me really 😉

      chjeers
      LGB
      still fighting on 🙂

      1. The only qualifier for the Newcastle sires angle Micro 1 is Electrical Storm in the 15:00.
        The same qualifier applies to Micro 2

        1. Spartan Fighter does in the same race, ‘if’ 20/1< or shorter and being nibbled at. But yes those are the only two today against my angles, ignoring odds caps.

  6. 1400 Yarm – Tilaawah, strong performances in 6f nursery company last 2 runs. Should pick this up at a reasonable 4/1. May be better on the dirt though.

    1425 Newc – Crossford. Some interesting newcomers but this one may be too street wise for them at 11/2.

    1435 Yarm – Whitehaven. I saw Bollin Neil run impressively at Catterick on Saturday but this may be too soon and too short for him. Whitehaven looks the best over this trip but the odds are way too short for me at 7/4

    1500 Newc – Brian The Snail. As someone else mentioned he is a quality sprinter and has run well in some decent handicaps. Currently 14/1

    1510 Yarm – I like 2 in this, Araka Lili and Glen Esk. Tim Easterby knows how to place a horse so an EW dabble on Araka Lili or avoid.

    1535 Newc – can’t see past Yazaman in this first AW championships qualifier. Too short for me though.

    1545 Yarm – Both Casa Loupi and Selecto look better than this class and they head the market. Slight preference for the former as she is 4/1

    1610 Newc – Curfewed is ahead of the handicapper in my opinion. 12/1 looks a good price and likes the stiff Newcastle mile.

    1620 Yarm – Napping drops in class and has run well here recently although that was on fast ground. Too good to ignore at 25/1?

    More to follow!

  7. All those who had Brian the snail in there posts well done. A perfect case of collective reasoning 🙂

    Shout out to nick Willis. Fantastic stuff today

  8. 1635 Kemp – Nibras Again. Consistent enough sprinter but he does get caught out at the start at times. Decent draw, currently 7/2

    1640 Newc – Excessable drops in class and it’s pretty average fayre and a good price for 20/1.

    1650 Yarm – Hi Ho Silver likes Yarmouth and is 16/1 at the moment. Slight worry on the ground.

    1710 Newc – Prissy Missy has been out of form lately but is capable of winning this type of contest and is currently 20/1

    1740 Newc – Major Pusey is a rather consistent 5f sprinter and is a nice 12/1 for this.

    1810 Kemp – Fitzrovia is a decent miler and shouldn’t really be competing in class 6 handicaps. Pat Cosgrace on board at 15/2

    1840 Kemp – Saluti has been running well in decent sprint handicaps, should be raced prominently and a decent 22/1!

    1910 Kemp – Kyllachy Gala drops in class and likes it around here. 11/1

    1940 Kemp – Durrell – an obvious choice but ahead of the handicapper. 9/4

    2010 Kemp – I like Hua Mulan a decent middle distance young filly. I had the opportunity to buy Transcript last month and thought twice. She would have been a bargain, thankfully I got another horse instead who runs on Friday:)

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