2.Jumps Profiles 20/21
3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
4.33 Sedg – Brian Boranha – 1 point win – 8/1 3rd -1, ran his race, just not good enough, no excuse there really for all that he could have been a bit closer through race, not that it mattered. Red Giant is mercurial, was entitled to do that on his best form, inc in this in 2018 when ahead and jockey taking wrong course, I suppose the price allowed some leap of faith, not that I could see it, and didn’t think he’d get an easy lead. But he’s enjoyed himself. That will be the final time I back Brian.
That’s all for today, as of 09.45, write up at bottom…
2.Jumps Profiles 20/21
(All ‘any odds’) (3/27,10p, -8.2)
3.25 Sedge – Overcourt 14/1 2nd 12/1 -1
4.33 Sedge – Duc De Grissay 5/1 UP -1
3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
(3/28, 7p, -12.2)
1.00 FL – Milanstorm (8/1<) 13/2 UP-1
2.57 Kemp – Locker Room Talk (8/1<) 5/1 WON 5/1> 9/2
3.10 FL – Ballyandy (8/1<) 8/1 2nd -1
4.33 Sedge – Arthurs Gift (8/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ (8am odds)
5.10 Sedge – Rocco (8/1<) 11/1 ‘DNQ’ (8am odds) UP 11/2
Brian Boranha –
8s seemed a tad generous for one of many a cliff horse for me – i think i’ve backed him 2/3 times and haven’t caught him right as yet. He has no excuse today in ideal conditions. Any Geegeez/instant expert users will see his appeal, ticking all boxes against race conditions, having hacked up in this two years ago off 5lb higher. He’s the only horse in here below his last winning mark and is the best handicapped on that score. Over this CD he can just travel in his comfort zone, pick them off and hit the front after the last, powering away. With any luck.
He didn’t run too badly last season – he hit the front in this last year, first run 169 days, in softer ground than ideal for him. He also can pull himself up a bit if in front too long. But that was off 133, 11-3 on his back that day. Kelso was probably soft enough, esp that far, but Cattrick was decent, until falling at the last. He was travelling much better than Little Bruce at the time, and may well have won. Solid form. When he runs his race he posts RPRs in the mid/high 130s which many in here don’t do. His run in the Edinburgh National was ok, bang there until 3 out, and then I think stamina gave way and that race was deeper than this. As was the Summer Cup LTO when I think I fancied him for some reason. He was out of his comfort zone there I think, a solid pace, again deeper than this. I can only think this has been the plan since. Peter Niven’s are going ok. He wouldn’t have many horses but on the Racing Post ‘Running to Form’ metric, 67% are which is much better than the rest of the trainers here. The horse can be readied after a break. Hopefully Brian doesn’t have him too far back but he will just sit where comfortable, knowing his pace.
To my eyes, 8s was overpriced, and i’ll roll the dice once more. He has no excuse today, everything looks set up for him, especially given the questions the oppo have…
I didn’t like anything else at the prices.
BBold has been well found – young, unexposed, possibly more to come in conditions, yard in form etc – he has an attractive profile, is fit and in form – that could count for plenty. The big unknown is stamina, having not even won over 3m yet, but ‘running on’ LTO. If he stays, and it’s a big if, he will be the one to pass I suspect. But he’s now a short price to find out. I’ll take him on but the fav winning is obviously never a shock!
Duc De Grissay – well he can win for the Trainer Profiles if i’m wrong, but 5s to my subjective eyes didn’t seem overpriced. A fitness question, ground questions, stamina, level of form etc. He is lightly raced / unexposed, and could run a big race, but I found it hard to wade in tipping wise. But he’s steady in the market at the moment which is a positive.
The rest can beat me. I left the older horses, 10+. Petite and Doing Fine are on tough marks now for all that stamina obviously isn’t a problem. I did think on good ground, around here, that it could happen quick enough for them.
Dandy Dan has a fitness and stamina question, and he’s now on a career high mark. He could be hard to place this year, aged 7, and needs more. He has to lug around 11-12 also and Bass is at Ffos Las with three for Kim. Given this pot, i’d have thought he’d be here if they expected a bold show. But I could be wrong on that. Still, he’s got questions to answer, his 3 most recent wins in 4 runner races.
Arthurs Gift – well he does usually need the run , 0/5,0p 121+ days off and I thought he’d want it deeper. He’s also 0/11,3p rated 131+, 3/3 when 130 or below, which may be worth noting. He has stamina to prove also, but at least Twister is having the odd winner now, hope for a strong latter half of the month. If he is a1, I could see him running ok, but he is open to attack from better treated rivals now. The market could well guide and of the bigger priced ones, he’d be the most annoying I suppose, but just too many questions for me given his profile to date. Sam isn’t here either.
The rest had even more questions- Class/level of form for Gangster and Chanceanotherfive, as well as stamina. If Rock On F takes this aged 11, so be it, not for me. Red Giant is woefully out of form and evidently impossible to trust for all that a return to anywhere near his best could put him in the mix. Thelingy has questions also, fitness, stamina, 1lb above his highest winning mark, and the yard, as they can, are blowing hot and cold again. Hopefully the market weakness is a sign for him. Graineyhill – surely not although maybe his last run was too bad to be true. 80s may be a bit harsh but he does have questions galore.
I think that’s the lot.
GL if playing, Josh