Members Daily Post: 15/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None. 

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (3/20,8p, -2.2)

3.36 Carl – Larch Hill 9/2 Fell, 6/1, -1

5.05 Winc – Realta Dawn (any, 20/1< best)

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(1/20, 5p, -14.5)

3.36 Carl – Larch Hill (8/1<) 9/2 Fell 6/1, -1

5.05 Winc – Double Court (8/1<) 8/1 UP 18/1 -1

E Lavelle

(1/10,5p, -4.5)

3.55 Winc – Shiroccan Roll 13/2 UP

 

4.Other/Updates

For those of you who make be keeping a notebook of various musings/angles…

After Nigel Hawkes winner at Wetherby (always after!) I had a look at his record with Juveniles… in the last 365 days… Hawke + Noonan + National Hunt + Aged 3 = now 8/16,8p, +33 SP. May be worth noting, if we haven’t missed the boat!

Dan Skelton... some talk after his Shan Blue hacked up at Wetherby, and hopefully for connections he will go very high in the chasing game. Given the power of the yard – certainly numbers wise- you’d have to think his time will come at the top table. When that is, we shall see. Maybe this season, and with this horse. I say that having looked at his record with chasers, in Grade 1/2/3 races (all, inc handicaps)… since the start of 2018 he’s 1/78, 16p, AE 0.13, performing 87% below market expectation. That may be some indication of how tough those races are to win, how hard it is to get those horses, and indeed to get them in tip top condition for a big chase. As a comparison, his old mentor, Paul Nicholls is 26/176, 60 places in the same period, AE 0.91. Of course Dan is at the early stages of his career and you’d think his star is destined to shine. Still, room for improvement there, including the buying/sourcing of said horses maybe. Then again, it’s hard work competing against Mullins (75 G1/2/3 chase winners since start 2018), Elliot (39), Nicholls (26), Henry De Bromhead (23), Nikcy Henderson (23) and Colin Tizzard (19), who occupy the top 6 slots. The other two with 10 or more are Noel Meade (12) and Jessie Harrington (10).

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • Wednesdays selections did not go well, in fact they are still running!!!1

    On Thursday I am having a go at Lingfield on the sand.

    2.35, Passing Nod – a course and distance winner, class six is his grade, draw OK.

    4.50, Chitra – another course and distance winner, trainer in good form, has won in this class, draw OK.

    Both 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 14/10/20 9:28 PM Reply


  • No luck yesterday with 1 NR.

    Looksnowtlikebrian….6/1
    14:26Carlisle
    Barrys Jack……………25/1
    15:01Carlisle
    Ardera Cross…………25/1
    15:36Carlisle
    Flintrock………………10/1
    17:05Wincanton
    Grand Pianola………33/1
    19:15Southwell
    Absolute Dream……12/1
    19:45Southwell
    Auchterarder……….16/1
    19:30Chelmsford

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 14/10/20 9:45 PM Reply


  • Morning all,

    I’m after a bit of advice this morning.. I must confess I’m a absolute novice when it comes to chase/Hurdle racing.. so any pointers in the right direction on what stats, info I should be looking for will be greatly appreciated. I’ll probably end up just sticking to what I read from you guys on here though haha.

    Good luck for today for those who are betting

    Michael

    Michael 15/10/20 7:39 AM Reply


    • Morning Michael,

      Before reading this I did have an idea to pull together some chase ‘pointers’ of interest / ways in / ideas etc. Certainly as a way to help bring ‘focus’ or what to home in on.

      I would say if you’ve an interest in ‘puzzle solving’ and may want to migrate from Novice status – pick one of those two. I’d go chasers – mainly because the importance of pace/race position, and looking for chasers that will lead/race prom that you think may stay there, is always a good way in I think.

      I would avoid Novice Handicap Chases to start – by their nature there’s lots of guessing as many are jumping under rules for first time (take that Hunt race few days back, all bar the winner took at least 3 fences home with them) and you also need to get on top of Point To Point form in such races in my view, or look for those with such form. They’re tricky at the best of times. But there will be some, due to the PtP element, maybe importance of breeding/trainers / visual notes etc, who specialise in Novice handicap chases.

      I would avoid Class 5, and you could even leave Class 4 handicap chases. More so that you can narrow down a days racing, a handful of contests per week, C3+ obv generally better animals, more consistent, ability to win etc.

      Throw in some assessment on jumping ability if you can (that means watching replays/races etc), a horses course preference, (esp configuration etc), assessment of trainer form / record/ track / jockey over a fence – and you’ve got a solid bases in which throw assessment of form/the horse into the mix.

      Start with £2s or £5s, or an amount where you really don’t think about the money – as if you crack getting enjoyment from the ‘puzzle solving process’, the rest will take care of itself in time. The reality is that the most satisfying winner you’ll back, emotionally, is one you’ve picked out yourself. That can be from using content here say, to help/way in, but applying some own thinking does lead to a greater buzz. Obv then an assessment of price/ value etc. I won’t be putting you off diving in. It’s something you can only get better at in time / experience

      Anyway, a few thoughts – I will try and pull together some useful handicap chase pointers.

      Josh

      Josh 15/10/20 8:27 AM Reply


      • What Josh says it correct.

        If I was advising a ‘novice’ I would dial it back a bit and stick with some basics to look for:

        The horse has won at the distance of the race;
        The horse goes on the ground conditions;
        The trainer is in some form either currently or at the course.

        Then secondary,

        The horse has course form;
        The horse has a winning record in his career of at least 20%;
        Does the horse have improvement in it based upon age or trying something new:
        The jockey has OK form over the relevant type of obstacle.

        And then add from there once you become more confident.

        Martin

        Martin Colwell 15/10/20 9:15 AM Reply


        • All sound advice there, but if you’re going to dial it back a bit as Martin puts it I would be inclined to tread carefully betting wise, I mean you should be anyway if you’re investing in a new venture but I think going down a well trodden path could mean plenty are overbet and don’t hold enough value over time. Great places to start though from Josh and Martin but do keep your eye out for new angles and try out your own along the way that’s where you’re more likely to get better value in your bets. And don’t give up too soon, learn about the variance and swings, you’ll get you’re arse bitten more than once but it’ll stand you in good stead. Good luck

          Chris Albin 15/10/20 9:41 AM Reply


        • All i would add is the grade it’s running in, has it run well in that grade or higher ? is it dropping down in grade ? you’ll soon find your own way in but the basics are going- grade- distance- course- trainer/jockey

          martin whittle 15/10/20 9:49 AM Reply


      • Cheers everyone for your replies, I will read it through once or twice and try and step up from here. Secondly, what site do you use mainly to gather your info from? I see you mention the Gee Geez one a bit, is that your primary source? I enjoy looking through and like you say, the buzz you get from picking your own is a lot better than just following.

        Michael 15/10/20 10:33 AM Reply


        • Geegeez and Horseracebase seem to be the main ones for folk round these parts

          Chris Albin 15/10/20 10:47 AM Reply


          • *others are probably available 🙂

            It’s a tricky one if you’re generally at the start of a ‘puzzle solving journey’ – I’d definitely be a free registered user on Geegeez, i’ve no idea why you wouldn’t be, given the daily menu of free to access content, including full race cards for 4/5 races a day I think. I’m sure during winter season will be the Chase in those. Free pace maps Sunday/ Monday – actually, just following what is ‘free to air’ each day automatically helps bring some focus.
            But what the racing post/ ATR offer for free in their race cards may suffice. My eyes are so fixed on how HRB and Geegeez present data etc, that I struggle with everything else!

            Josh

            Josh 15/10/20 10:56 AM Reply


            • At the ‘Novice’ level I would go with Geegeez. I think that Horseracebase comes later when you are past novice level and they do replicate one another in part. The Racing Post is OK but not as good as the others mentioned.

              As horse racing happens every day you can take your time and build your skills.

              Good luck Martin

              Martin Colwell 15/10/20 11:14 AM Reply


              • Cheers lads, just currently trying to register with GeeGeez though there appears to be a problem with their register link.. I’ll try again later. Must be some technical issue

                Michael 15/10/20 6:36 PM Reply


                • Hmm, strange. Matt is in the middle of a ‘launch’ for Gold so I do wonder if he’s disabled the odd page, esp free registration, or it’s a tech error. I’ll message him to check if not back up soon. Think the trial link is still live which makes me think it may be deliberate, for next week or 2 anyway.
                  Josh

                  Josh 15/10/20 8:37 PM Reply


  • Just a L15 today for now
    Iolani
    Carlisle 12:20 @10/1
    Back On The Lash
    Carlisle 12:50 @7/1
    Bafana Blue
    Carlisle 14:26 @16/1
    Ardera Cross
    Carlisle 15:36 @25-1

    martin whittle 15/10/20 8:20 AM Reply


    • 4 over the sea for another L15
      Curragh.
      1-35. Downforce 14-1
      2-05. Hell Left Loose 8-1
      2-40. Cactus Tree 14-1
      3-15. Miss Adventurous 25-1

      martin whittle 15/10/20 9:26 AM Reply


  • having a go on looksnowtlikebrian 226 carl. moderate jumper but last 5 wins have all been with Richard Johnson up and he rides him for the first time since his last win 7 races ago

    pete 15/10/20 10:48 AM Reply


    • Gl Pete, and good spot with Johnson, he is the only one to have won or even placed over fences, although only 0/4,0p the rest, but still… 4/6,5p. You should get an entertaining run for your money at least! If he does jump he should be there come the climb to the line. A return to form LTO, and given his course record (inc this race 2 years ago) it may well have been the early season target. Jockey booking may suggest so.
      GL, looks a decent little contest. Pop R won this on seasonal return last season, Fergal’s won as if stacks more to come at Perth, but this is a very different track/test to anything he’s faced before.

      Josh 15/10/20 11:44 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Soutwell
    4.40 Puchita
    4.40 Kraka
    5.15 Global Melody
    7.45 Xcelente
    7.45 Total Distraction
    Colin

    cleafe 15/10/20 10:48 AM Reply


    • I think they’re unplayable now Colin – hope you got on early, good luck.

      Chris Albin 15/10/20 1:58 PM Reply


      • Chris, just had a look and the 7.45 an extra 2 n/rs so i will not back the fav, 5.15 will back global melody.
        4.40 already backed puchita who was 3rd to global melody last time, puchita previous run beat brenner pass which won yesterday, and doubtful if i now will back kraka,
        Colin

        cleafe 15/10/20 3:44 PM Reply


  • Unfortunately Corona virus causing havoc at work. So no time for list today.
    Did have a quick flick through though and TILSIT looks and interesting ex French horse at 50/1 e/w 6:30 Chelmsford.

    As always good luck with your selections. 🙂

    Warren Bottomley 15/10/20 1:02 PM Reply


  • Someone on here (think it was Martin C) used to put up Karl Burke runners at Southwell AW. I kept a note and tonight he had 2 winners at 5/1 and 20/1 (Early/BOG).

    If I remember in future I’ll put them up here the night before.

    Ken McKenzie 15/10/20 9:26 PM Reply


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