Members Daily Post: 09/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None. Some musings on the Vets race in the comments below…

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (2/11,5p, +4.3)

None.

A welcome 12/1 winner on Thursday, always a relief when the first of those relative ‘biggies’ goes in. The 2nd winner for Kerry in recent days and well backed. We shall see if they build on it, at what’s a tricky time of year. The market can been a guide with a few, esp where fitness is concerned – certainly Twisters it seems, his two ‘monthly trainer’ quals losing a leg in the market and running as such. Celtic Joy can’t jump, or didn’t today anyway. Uno Mas – i think that confirms he hates soft/heavy and even his fitness/form/mark and a crawl couldn’t make up for it. 

Peter Bowen looks to ‘be back’. Another winner at Ffos Las and the odd place. He’s had a torrid 12-16 months, so bad it had to be illness, can’t think all badly handicapped/old, but maybe his yard needed re-stocking with younger blood – 3/23 in last 30 days now I think, having been 1/154 or so in 335 days before that. You’d usually associate him with summer jumpers, without too many soft ground types. But, something to keep an eye on. 

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(1/15, 4p, -9.5)

2.10 Chep – Goa Lil (8/1<) 20/1 DNQ (on 8am odds)

Lavelle

(1/7,3p, -1.5)

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

Velka Pardubice Preview: READ HERE>>> 

Chepstow Pointers : READ HERE>>> 

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Silver Trophy Meeting Quals 

From the Chepstow Pointers post above…

Trainers

P Nicholls 

2.10 – Thyme White 5/1 

2.45 – Kilmington Rose 7/4 

3.15 – McFabulous 8/11

3.50 – Flic Ou Voyou 8/11 

4.25 – Bravemansgame 5/2 

5.25 – Enrilo 3/1 

NTD

2.10 – Goa Lil 20/1 

Jockeys 

Sean Bowen

4.55 – Crosspark 25/1 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

28 Comments

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  • It’s all Greek to me of late so maybe appropriate that my only bet is

    York

    14.05 OUZO each way 6 places Will hills

    Rick 08/10/20 6:37 PM Reply


    • Yamas! very well done Rick.

      Paul E 09/10/20 2:16 PM Reply


      • Cheers

        a tasty beverage served up!!

        Rick 09/10/20 2:29 PM Reply


    • Well done Rick, superb shout.

      Do you do much on the sand over the winter, or hibernate?

      Josh

      Josh 09/10/20 2:20 PM Reply


      • Cheers!! Much needed, been on a dry run since Lucander won at York

        My winter focus in Graded chasing, specially 3 mile division

        Class 2 and up Handicap Chases

        Sand racing is a no for me.

        Rick 09/10/20 2:32 PM Reply


        • It has been a tough old time on the Flat for a few of late it seems, me included. One hot spell/burst as is the way, and then the wheels really did fall off.

          Ah yes, I remember now I think. I’m hoping my added focus on those will reap some rewards, so look forward to bouncing around ideas, and no doubt the odd differing conclusion!

          Josh

          Josh 09/10/20 2:35 PM Reply


  • A nice profit on Thursday with 2 winners. Have a few for Friday viewing.

    Nasraawy 16/1 ew
    16:10Newmarket

    Rebel At Dawn 7/1
    13:00York

    Another Touch 25/1 ew
    14:05York

    Firmament 14/1 ew
    14:05York

    Copper Knight 10/1 ew
    15:45York

    Muscika 16/1 ew
    15:45York

    Global Spirit 16/1 ew
    16:50York

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 08/10/20 7:39 PM Reply


    • Blimey, another flies in… I do hope you’ve got Best Odds Guranteed on Muscika – 40s! Some winner, pour yourself a drink. Well done

      Josh 09/10/20 3:49 PM Reply


      • YES, I was surprised when I saw how much it had drifted.
        Nice profit.

        Mike

        Michael Dennis 09/10/20 3:57 PM Reply


  • A bit surprised how little there is to go at tomorrow i think the markets may have got it about right with a lot of shorter priced winners, the only really open race is the 2-05 York my 3 against the field are :
    Hortzader, Another Touch and Alemaratalyoum.

    martin whittle 08/10/20 8:18 PM Reply


    • I meant ITV races

      martin whittle 09/10/20 2:47 AM Reply


  • No joy on Thursday, with a second and an also ran, so 2 points lost.

    Two for Friday – 1.50 Newmarket.

    Acklam Express – a consistent performer, has won in this class and has won some good races, won at this distance, good draw.
    Royal Address – is on a four timer, has won at this distance, good draw.

    1 point win both.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 08/10/20 9:24 PM Reply


  • I have taken a long hard look at the 4:55 at Chepstow, maybe too hard, come out with two against the field, so, into battle we go!
    4:55 Chepstow
    WHAT A MOMENT 1pt win 9/1 gen
    Now, Mr Pipe has won this before and Vieux Lion Rouge was down as a declaration earlier in the week, so, think it is significant that WAM who, near enough has the same profile as VLR did last year is the only declared runner instead. Not really a “veteran” in my eyes with only 17 career runs and may be on a good mark, we shall see as they say! Has run well over Course and Distance before and I think Mr Scu is a good pilot to have on board.
    STRONG PURSUIT 1pt win 8/1 gen
    Dickie on board and he knows how to ride Chepstow, well if he doesn`t by now then he needs to hang his boots up. Should be up near the front, so, Dickie will miss probably all the carnage in behind, which is why I have two stabs in this, WAM is deffo an out the back, so, hopefully he`ll miss out as i can guarantee one of these will be on a non going day, hopefully neither of mine…On a low handicap mark and another who has not many miles on the clock, should run well.

    As Always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    Stewart 09/10/20 8:13 AM Reply


  • 100 Rebel At Dawn
    205 Baronial Pride
    225 Nazuna
    240 Favourite Moon
    345 Celsius
    410 Damage Control
    445 Magic Lily
    450 Captain Claret
    455 Present Man
    525 The Mighty Don
    555 Antony
    700 Dark Vader
    745 Midrarr

    Chris 09/10/20 8:29 AM Reply


    • 8 losers then W12/1, W10/1, 2nd 12/1, L, L.

      Chris 10/10/20 3:11 AM Reply


  • Vets chase…

    I did have a browse obviously but not really a serious one and not with the intention of diving in properly – a mixed record in them and as is often the case it’s hard to know who may turn up on the day, or who’s gone at the game/on the way out. You generally want to make a case for a 10 yo if you can, or lightly raced 11yo imo.

    I did think Joe Farrel is the most likely winner – a place in RTP folklore after his 40/1 Scots Nat win but i’ll try and write some new tales this season. 4s could be getting on skinny side, i’m not sure. He wasn’t beaten far last year in this, whacking the last, and Junior is a jockey upgrade. Curtis team are going well – he will be fit, this will be his Gold cup I suspect , or in any case his main target pre Xmas – i’m not sure that’s the case for much else in this. Anyway, I thin he will go close, clear top HRB ratings also. Is 4s in a chase like this ever a good price? Debateable.

    Crosspark – he’s one of the few in here who you’d think may have races in him this season still. One for the Bowen angle, 25s does look a tad insulting, as I raid my beer money stash. It’s hard to be confident – I suspect the Eider and then Scots Nat 2nd bottomed him out. BUT, he did race on woeful ground last season, and there’s plenty of Good today, which will be right up his street. He has the best ‘recent’ form, with those two big efforts, by quite some way. The yard are in form, he’s won fresh. It’s just whether they can get him back into some sort of form, but the ground may help – if he doesn’t get outpaced, which is also possible.
    In theory, if they get him back, even aged 10, he could have an ‘ok’ pot in him, maybe outside of the Vets series. Maybe one of these regional nationals, on ok ground. So, eyes on him. But maybe its all about today!

    There’s not really anything else in here I’ll even be watching with ‘for the future’ eyes although i’m sure we will get to see a few of these through the season in these races. Paul may well have picked the Vets final out and is working backwards with Present man, but he’s clearly had issues since his Badger Ales win and isn’t the force of old.

    Anyway, GL if playing, i’ve had change on Joe F and Cross P to pay for a pint or two this evening, maybe. But hard to be dogmatic in these old boys races, but such a spectacle. Hopefully they all enjoy themselves.

    Josh

    Josh 09/10/20 8:36 AM Reply


    • Gonna pick Pingshou ew because he looks a lively outsider to me! He looks like he hates going right on paper and has enough going for him on the HRB profiler to have an interest. I picked one on the basis that somebody should reply to your write up even if it is a know-nuffink-numpty like me!
      I think one of the top two will probably win but 20/1 for Pingshou gets my £5 e/w with 4 places. Maybe even a £1 r/f with the other 2 as well.

      Chris Albin 09/10/20 1:28 PM Reply


  • A biggie for The Ces on Saturday – plot job alert!!!!!!!

    Vis A Vis – off for a long time but now getting fitter, down in the weights, placed in the race previously.

    Just saying.

    Martin Colwell 09/10/20 9:45 AM Reply


    • Hmm, could be better on softer going compared to fast last time. One for BSP+places.
      I like Lynwood Gold which I’ve been waiting for. Been well backed this afternoon before I had a bet 🙁

      Chris 09/10/20 5:50 PM Reply


    • I’m always taken in by a “plot job”, do you really think this is the case here?

      Adam 09/10/20 8:33 PM Reply


  • Saturday’s post, phase 1, is up for those of you who like to get cracking – it is all jumps focussed…

    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/10/09/freetips-84/

    Josh

    Josh 09/10/20 9:52 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    2.10 Chepstow Vorashann
    2.05 York Al Erayg

    Colin

    cleafe 09/10/20 10:28 AM Reply


  • Off I go again will my self indulgent drivellous post about some of my system bets. It entertains me even if I am showing signs of cabin fever 🙂
    So overall I’m down 1pt since Monday and I think I’m about 40pts down in the last month or so, perhaps the worst one yet but no worries. I can’t be worrying about losing months otherwise what’s the point of it in the first place, they’re inevitable and they only make you stronger. I made around 100pts the month before that knowing at least half would be given back.
    I have pretty much the same emotion watching a 20/1 shot win as I do watching a 5/1 shot lose on the basis that most of winnings will be given back anyway and if I lose another winner is just around the corner. Maybe because I bet on so many there’s no time to dwell on losers or get excited about winners. For me the time to enjoy it is when I withdraw money and spend it on something.
    I did get a little excited on Monday though when an 8/1 SP winner paid 25.0 on BFSP which was a first for me so I’m entitled to do so! Never seen such a difference like that before.
    I’ve watched so many races this week while being off work and to be honest I’d rather be at work, I find it relatively boring to be honest. I think if I had brains and knowledge about racing and was able to pick winners in the ways that many of you do on here then I’d the excitement, I used to be like that many years ago but I was really bad at it and the emotional aspect crushed me in the end, all I could think about was racing 24/7, it got quite dark in the end 🙂
    Anyway drivel completed, it’s donkey time.
    3 from my 12 bets today –
    York 14:05 – Shelir
    Kempton 18:15 – Golden Claim
    Kempton 18:45 – Coase
    Ah sod it make it 4, a proper tilt, it’s a 2yo race anything can happen can’t it?
    14:40 – Almadrina

    Chris Albin 09/10/20 12:02 PM Reply


    • York 16:20 – Almadrina

      Chris Albin 09/10/20 12:39 PM Reply


  • Well done,Josh. Thyme White 10/1.

    Chris 09/10/20 2:21 PM Reply


    • Ah good, glad someone read the research and had a go! Those 7/2 + stats decent, doesn’t rely on masses of shorties to fill it out. WD, decent price that!

      Josh 09/10/20 2:22 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, also had a wee wager, Nicholls has a good record in that race

        James Barker 09/10/20 3:33 PM Reply


    • A small exaggeration 🙂 6/1

      Chris 09/10/20 2:23 PM Reply


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