3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
None from me. A reminder that from Nov 1st they’ll be more regular ‘daily’ jumps tips from my new signing, average 1-2 a day I think. I’ll be focusing on Feature handicap previews, mainly chases I suspect, but also stats/trends/training pointers for a few of the big handicap hurdles through a season.
Hopefully something of interest below…
Nice of David Allan to have a soft ground winner in the last at Ponte – nearly a wipe out for those musings, not that backing them all would have been wise. Hopefully someone may have landed on him. A few 2nds also. Will Buick has banged in his first two rides for David Evans at Wolvs as I type, so at least that logic held, for one day at least! Onto Tuesday…
A few things to muse over… having said I was moving on from the flat generally, one horse has popped up in one of my HRB accounts…
2.50 Leicester – Dave Dexter
He hits a few of my ‘C2 handicap, 1st Blinkers’ ways in/angles from my video the other day. That video is HERE>>> 273 or so of you have watched it so far
Do with that as you please but it’s the sort of angle where you’re meant to be more forgiving over recent form/last runs – hence why connections may be reaching for the headgear! CP didn’t help him last time mind…
- Yard are in fine form.. 13/42, 19p, +20 in the last 14 days.
- In the last 2 years trainer/jockey are 24/80, 36p, +76 SP in all handicaps (inc on the sand – the AW fans among you may want to note that… well, 6/25, 9p, +11 on AW, better on turf but still solid)
- Beckett with 1st time blinkers… handicappers since start of 2015… 13/58, 23p, +91 BFSP
- He also gets a first time TT… Beckett with any handicapper in a tongue tie, since start of 2015, is 8/32,10p +57 BFSP (wearing for 1st time.. 1/7,2p, +18)
He can win from this mark (won a Nursery off 87, and followed that up with a listed win, posted an RPR 94 in that Chepstow win two starts back) and everything in here is a fair few pounds above their last win. I’m not sure anything is chucked in here. His light weight may help up that muddy hill also. . So, even if he doesn’t win, some useful stattage to note for the future. IF the blinkers work, which after LTO they need to, he could take this. I’ll be throwing some change at him to find out, at what could be 12s+. If the blinkers don’t work he will probably tail in last, so, we shall see! But, stats wise, and indeed his profile, there’s plenty to be hopeful on with him, but i’ll leave you to have a closer look – although the above may have convinced you one way or the other.
Ruth Carr… I mentioned here a few weeks back after she fired in a couple of winners, wondering if she was about to go on a spurt. Hmm. Not as yet. Before today she was 3/163, 15p since racing returned on June 1st. I hadn’t realised that she basically stopped training them in lockdown – just turned them out, reduced fees for owners etc – they’d have been in a while prepping for a return before that announcement. I think her training methods relied on them running into race fitness on the track anyway- I don’t know if health issues, plenty are needing 2-3-4+ runs, she’s got loads of badly handicapped types, lost some good staff, or whatever. Her stats for last couple of years haven’t been great, below 10% overall win SR. Will they bounce back at some point? Who knows. It could be she’s decided to prep everything for the winter All-Weather – that’s possible. In any case, in theory, there should be some well handicapped ones at some point among her string of 55 or so. There’s a few yards that have had a very very quiet summer.
Christian Williams… I’ve nearly completed by Jumps Profiles guide, well the trainers bit – i’ve 13 angles, and while not superstitious, should try and find one or two more! There’s potentially one for Brian Ellison but i’ll discuss that in Wednesday’s post. Anyway, I had a look at C Williams stats and while I haven’t found a micro angle as such given a chunk of the handicap stats come from a small handful of horses/multiple winners, it’s a good time for the reminder that TO DATE, he generally runs his horses into fitness. I think in part that’s due to how he trains them at home – what a place to be a racehorse. But, they’re not pushed ultra hard at home – I think CW believes in the slowly slowly approach, so they can keep going/still fresh enough, deep into the season etc.
Anyway – when looking at all his handicappers… those with 0-1 runs in the prev 90 days are 1/87, 12p, -85. Those with 2 runs in the prev 90 days are 5/58, 11p, -1.
Looking for reasons to oppose horses/cross them out can be as useful as homing in on positives for a runners X. And, to date at least, CWs on their first few runs should be treated with caution. Of course, he may change approach and they start flying in on their seasonal returns, but its something to note, as this looks like a clear training method to me. So far at least.
That’s all from me for Tuesday.
GL with any bets, Josh