Members Daily Post: 06/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None from me. A reminder that from Nov 1st they’ll be more regular ‘daily’ jumps tips from my new signing, average 1-2 a day I think. I’ll be focusing on Feature handicap previews, mainly chases I suspect, but also stats/trends/training pointers for a few of the big handicap hurdles through a season.

Hopefully something of interest below…

 

2.Jumps Profiles

None.

 

3.Monthly Trainers

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

Nice of David Allan to have a soft ground winner in the last at Ponte – nearly a wipe out for those musings, not that backing them all would have been wise. Hopefully someone may have landed on him. A few 2nds also. Will Buick has banged in his first two rides for David Evans at Wolvs as I type, so at least that logic held, for one day at least! Onto Tuesday…

A few things to muse over… having said I was moving on from the flat generally, one horse has popped up in one of my HRB accounts…

2.50 Leicester – Dave Dexter 

He hits a few of my ‘C2 handicap, 1st Blinkers’ ways in/angles from my video the other day. That video is HERE>>> 273 or so of you have watched it so far

Do with that as you please but it’s the sort of angle where you’re meant to be more forgiving over recent form/last runs – hence why connections may be reaching for the headgear! CP didn’t help him last time mind…

  • Yard are in fine form.. 13/42, 19p, +20 in the last 14 days.
  • In the last 2 years trainer/jockey are 24/80, 36p, +76 SP in all handicaps (inc on the sand – the AW fans among you may want to note that… well, 6/25, 9p, +11 on AW, better on turf but still solid)
  • Beckett with 1st time blinkers… handicappers since start of 2015… 13/58, 23p, +91 BFSP 
  • He also gets a first time TT… Beckett with any handicapper in a tongue tie, since start of 2015, is 8/32,10p +57 BFSP (wearing for 1st time.. 1/7,2p, +18)

 

He can win from this mark (won a Nursery off 87, and followed that up with a listed win, posted an RPR 94 in that Chepstow win two starts back) and everything in here is a fair few pounds above their last win. I’m not sure anything is chucked in here. His light weight may help up that muddy hill also. . So, even if he doesn’t win, some useful stattage to note for the future. IF the blinkers work, which after LTO they need to, he could take this. I’ll be throwing some change at him to find out, at what could be 12s+. If the blinkers don’t work he will probably tail in last, so, we shall see! But, stats wise, and indeed his profile, there’s plenty to be hopeful on with him, but i’ll leave you to have a closer look – although the above may have convinced you one way or the other. 

**

Ruth Carr…  I mentioned here a few weeks back after she fired in a couple of winners, wondering if she was about to go on a spurt. Hmm. Not as yet. Before today she was 3/163, 15p since racing returned on June 1st. I hadn’t realised that she basically stopped training them in lockdown – just turned them out, reduced fees for owners etc – they’d have been in a while prepping for a return before that announcement. I think her training methods relied on them running into race fitness on the track anyway- I don’t know if health issues, plenty are needing 2-3-4+ runs, she’s got loads of badly handicapped types, lost some good staff, or whatever. Her stats for last couple of years haven’t been great, below 10% overall win SR. Will they bounce back at some point? Who knows. It could be she’s decided to prep everything for the winter All-Weather – that’s possible. In any case, in theory, there should be some well handicapped ones at some point among her string of 55 or so. There’s a few yards that have had a very very quiet summer. 

**

Christian Williams… I’ve nearly completed by Jumps Profiles guide, well the trainers bit – i’ve 13 angles, and while not superstitious, should try and find one or two more! There’s potentially one for Brian Ellison but i’ll discuss that in Wednesday’s post. Anyway, I had a look at C Williams stats and while I haven’t found a micro angle as such given a chunk of the handicap stats come from a small handful of horses/multiple winners, it’s a good time for the reminder that TO DATE, he generally runs his horses into fitness. I think in part that’s due to how he trains them at home – what a place to be a racehorse. But, they’re not pushed ultra hard at home – I think CW believes in the slowly slowly approach, so they can keep going/still fresh enough, deep into the season etc. 

Anyway – when looking at all his handicappers… those with 0-1 runs in the prev 90 days are 1/87, 12p, -85. Those with 2 runs in the prev 90 days are 5/58, 11p, -1. 

Looking for reasons to oppose horses/cross them out can be as useful as homing in on positives for a runners X. And, to date at least, CWs on their first few runs should be treated with caution. Of course, he may change approach and they start flying in on their seasonal returns, but its something to note, as this looks like a clear training method to me. So far at least. 

**

That’s all from me for Tuesday. 

GL with any bets, Josh 

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

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  • A 12/1 place and a loser on Monday.

    Tuesday dutching picks – 8.20 Southwell.

    Capla Cubiste – improving three year old, won last time out, trainer and jockey team have a good record on the all weather, course winner.
    Cape Greco – a consistent all weather performer, has won in this class, course winner.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 05/10/20 8:40 PM Reply


    • What odds/staking do you use for these Martin? They look interesting.

      Adam 06/10/20 9:39 AM Reply


      • I am going 1 point each way at 5/1 or better and if shorter 2 points win.

        I am in test mode this month and I will see how October goes and go from there.

        Good luck Martin

        Martin Colwell 06/10/20 9:48 AM Reply


    • Is there a particular dutching calculator you use to work out the stake for each selection Martin ? The ones I’ve found don’t seem to cover betting each way.

      Steve Goodall 06/10/20 11:27 AM Reply


      • Only a minimum average 5/2 overall profit with one winner based upon odds available at the time of placing the bet. I will likely move to win only re staking if I continue after the October trial. The each way angle is experimental. As you say the staking methodologies floating about are not great and Based upon my experiences have come up with my own to test. No doubt it will change if I continue with dutching.

        Regards Martin

        Martin Colwell 06/10/20 12:58 PM Reply


        • I’d say dutching e/w would be very difficult to profit from with 5/1 shots even impossible. Clearly you’re not backing 5/1 every time but even if you back at 10/1 with 1/5 place money and one places every race you lose 2pt every race. You’re relying on winners to keep you afloat which kind of contradicts the point of the e/w betting.
          At 10/1 you’d need at least 1 place in every race per 10 races and 2 winners to make a 10% profit, 40pts stake and 44pts return.

          Chris Albin 06/10/20 2:50 PM Reply


          • Yes I think that you are likely correct re each way. We shall see come end October and go from there.

            I think win only is the way.

            Martin Colwell 06/10/20 5:12 PM Reply


  • I put up my 4 system bets yesterday and the last one May The Sixth won at an ISP of 8/1… very nice indeed except I bet to BFSP and that was an incredible 25.0
    Now I know it looks like I’m bragging, I’m not (maybe a bit!) but my point is that’s 3 times ISP…3 times.
    I know a lot of you like your BOG’s and some of you swear by it but BFSP ain’t bad in the long run either you know and I won’t get restricted or kicked out 😉 …..still can’t get over the 8/1 v 25.0….mind boggling to me how that occurred.

    Chris Albin 05/10/20 9:04 PM Reply


    • I’ll allow you to brag about an 8s ISP > 25s BFSP! And you did post before they ran, which is always appreciated! Top work. I fully understand with your approach why you’d just back to BFSP, mentally if nothing else. Faffing around with X number of bets trying to snaffle top price etc can be draining, and if you’re not playing near top of the market I can see the attraction. Anyway, onwards.
      Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 9:45 AM Reply


  • Richard Hughes has a great record with his 3yo’s at Southwell but his 2 runners Brenner Pass and Mackelly are priced accordingly.Had the former at 10/1 last time out and not often your offered 10’s for a 6/4 shot.Hard thing is finding this disparity between price and chance often enough

    8.20 Southwell Amadeus Grey 20/1 Bet365 16/1 gen

    Another sand debutant that comes with the usual proviso,will it handle the surface.the racing post can be a bit contradictory having him 0/1 on going and 0-0 at track.Can’t see laytown in his form record.Trainer has decent record here

    4yo+ at track 9/37 +35
    Jockey/Trainer with 4yo aw 8/41 +17

    It might take to the surface,or it might tail in last,but at 20 or so will take the chance.Most of the other races have multiple track winners and just a case of who’s turn it is today

    gerard michael flynn 05/10/20 9:37 PM Reply


    • Gl as always Gerry, Martin with a couple in the race also so hopefully one of you is on the money.

      Big Tim has only ran one Zebedee here before in last 5 years, and he won. 14s. Also ridden by Duran. So, here’s hoping!

      Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 9:54 AM Reply


  • I like the daily musings thingy you’ve got going on there Josh, maybe that’s your thingy 🙂

    Chris Albin 05/10/20 10:00 PM Reply


    • Ha, we shall see – I do enjoy musing and trying to offer the odd snippet which just makes the post worth reading/flicking through – and to do everything else I want – daily tipping/analysis is just draining, and to keep on top of it and be good – not for me it would seem. Hopefully by being somewhat mentally refreshed, ‘tipping’ wise, I can have a better crack at the big chases/Festivals and try and build on past glories! But i’ll make sure the process/content for those races is at least useful. And have more time to throw around content such as above.
      Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 10:10 AM Reply


      • Yep all good stuff, if it makes your life easier and more enjoyable then that’s got to be good. It clearly offers ways in and hopefully to learn over time which stats are useful for certain situations and ones that don’t work. Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself here because I’ve reached my annual budget of posts already in 2 days but it may expand the already diverse posts a little too.

        Chris Albin 06/10/20 11:02 AM Reply


  • Got this is my notes reminder about Jazz Hands in the 20.20 race today
    Southwell, Standard going, 8f-9f, B McHugh jockey preferably, Class 5-6
    Going is Standard to slow and has a different jockey on but might be worth a go at 16/1 EW?
    Good luck in whatever you back.

    Danny Binks 06/10/20 7:22 AM Reply


    • GL Danny,

      He looks sure to strike here at some point… AW hncps… 3/7,4p over 8f, 3/5,4p at Southwell, 3/6,4p with CP on.

      Odd jockey booking and he is 2lb above last winning mark here – I wonder if this is to get his mark down? But then again maybe he’s unexposed still in what look like ideal conditions, and he ticks more ‘conditions’ boxes than others in the race, of those proven esp handicaps around here. So, I won’t be putting you off him at that price! Could be he’s best in a smaller field, but that’s more an unknown/ unproven – do keep tracking, if it isn’t today his profile here suggests you’ll get paid at some point if he’s well placed.

      Gl, Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 10:01 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.20 Leicester Ventura Express
    7.20 Southwell Thawry
    8.20 Southwell Cape Greco
    Colin

    cleafe 06/10/20 10:18 AM Reply


    • Welcome back Colin. Nice 10/1 win for Thawry. Are these the On The Bridle tips that were on the trial?

      Ken McKenzie 06/10/20 7:28 PM Reply


      • Hi Ken
        These are my original bets which i used to put up called Colins bets which have backed for many years, however last year was a disaster and the start of this year was not pulling any trees up although not losing much so revamped it and started recording from October, normally do very well on the AW and can produce 30 to 50 points each month for 3 months, will see if it can do it again certainly hope so!
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 06/10/20 8:02 PM Reply


  • A few musings on today’s poor racing,
    Catterick.
    3-00. A number of these are in with chances but the drift of Macs Blessings 14>28-1 has made him interesting, beaten 10l by Jill Rose lto and is 5lb better off for that very poor run, his 2 wins at Ayr earlier this season would put him bang in with a chance.
    4-30. Lydiate Lady 18-1 , she has to come good sometime doesn’t she?
    Leicester.
    3-20. If the 8 left stay in Peachy Carnehan 12-1 could be an ew shot.
    3-50. As above race Young John 14-1
    4-50. Hedging 12-1 and Tyche 10-1 both look to have fair chances.
    Lingfield.
    5-10. Temujin 8-1, a c&d winner 3 runs ago and could well repeat in this.

    martin whittle 06/10/20 10:24 AM Reply


  • Here goes with another stab today with my system bets after yesterdays nice little bonus.
    I have 17 bets today so I’ll just put up the top 5 priced ones for some super speculation.
    As with yesterday you can thank me later 🙂

    Leicester 13:45 – Retrospect
    Lingfield 15:40 – Coco Bear
    Lingfield 16:40 – Kerrera
    Lingfield 17:10 – Nicky Baby
    Southwell 19:50 – Beastie Boy

    Be nice to get another BFSP bonus but I won’t hold my breath, truth is I’ll be lucky if any of them run any sort of race but you gotta speculate to accumulate…No e/w betting here folks

    Chris Albin 06/10/20 11:57 AM Reply


  • Stuart Williams has had a pretty poor flat season too; not sure what the reason for it is.

    Matty 06/10/20 1:54 PM Reply


    • hasn’t he just, truly woeful…

      230 bets / 9 wins / 40p / 3.9% w sr / 17% place sr

      That’s since June 1st, most of those in handicaps. 3/62, 12p on AW vs 6/168, 28p on Turf.

      I’ve no idea why so woeful – maybe they were spot on for when lockdown came in, or left woefully undercooked and could never get competitive. Or he’s just got a yard full of poor types, badly handicapped or lacking ability. Or a virus etc – those numbers are so bad you’d have to think something up with them. Staff changes can affect things, esp if losing decent work riders or right/left hand senior staff etc. And of course owners pulling out. I don’t know- be interesting if he’s anything public thoughts on the matter.
      I’ve no doubt he will bounce back mind – his usual annual SR is around 12-13% all runners. So, if they have been ill or whatever, you’d expect a resurgence at some point. Who knows. Or he’s been selling any of his good ones abroad etc.

      Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 2:14 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Have done any research on jumps trainers raiding the flat ala Alan King and others (who has just netted another winner as I type this).
    I suppose my thinking is they do this as a way of keeping his string ticking over but also as a measure of how his winter recruits are coming along.
    Something to ponder over.

    DAVID DICKINSON 06/10/20 2:21 PM Reply


    • Hi David,

      I’ve pondered occasionally in the past before but obviously won’t be doing any extensive work for what’s left of this year! Remind me next June time haha.

      I mean i’d class Alan King as Dual Purpose, rather than a jumps trainer who trains a few flat horses – and given some of his jumps results in recent times, esp chasers, it could be argued he’s turned his eyes more to the flat.

      You need to dig into his flat/AW stats which I won’t do this time. His win % on flat/AW has been consistent for years, around the 12/13% win sr…

      All since 2008 are 1836 bets / 231 wins / 609 p / 12.58% w sr / -185 SP / +240 BFSP

      2020- 22/186, 56p, -31 SP, +10 BFSP

      You have to pick them. But clearly if his flat horses are going well it’s a positive maybe for the form of his overall health of string but the training regimes will be a bit different so can’t assume translates imo. – certainly when say assuming they’d be all fit etc.

      Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 2:33 PM Reply


  • MC AND THE GET AW CREW 🙂
    HERE ARE MY DOUBLE DUTCHERS FOR TONIGHT :
    (DUPLICATES MEAN IN MORE THAN ONE SYSTEM QUALIFIER)
    NOT TIPS OR ADVICES OR TO BE LOGGED ( COLIN ! 🙂 ) JUST TRYING OUT MY PART CLEANED OVENS 😉
    4.40 Lingfield 8 Kerrera
    4.40 Lingfield 8 Kerrera
    4.40 Lingfield 4 Lady Magda
    4.40 Lingfield 3 Plansina
    4.40 Lingfield 14 Scarborough Castle
    5.10 Lingfield 3 Jeanette May
    5.10 Lingfield 8 Nicky Baby (IRE)
    5.10 Lingfield 8 Nicky Baby (IRE)
    5.20 Southwell 6 Three Card Trick
    5.20 Southwell 11 Gently Spoken (IRE)
    5.20 Southwell 7 Puchita (IRE)
    5.20 Southwell 8 Sfumato
    5.20 Southwell 1 Brenner Pass
    5.40 Lingfield 13 Lady Alexandria
    5.50 Southwell 2 Capla Dream
    5.50 Southwell 4 Midfield
    5.50 Southwell 1 Final Voyage (IRE)
    5.50 Southwell 1 Final Voyage (IRE)
    6.20 Southwell 6 Twiggybark Creek
    6.20 Southwell 1 Blue Hero (CAN)
    6.20 Southwell 12 Maximum Risk (IRE)
    6.20 Southwell 9 Auroch
    6.20 Southwell 9 Auroch
    6.20 Southwell 5 Full Marks (IRE)
    6.20 Southwell 12 Maximum Risk (IRE)
    6.20 Southwell 7 Mister B
    6.20 Southwell 4 Sophie B
    6.20 Southwell 4 Sophie B
    6.50 Southwell 3 Bollin Joan
    6.50 Southwell 4 Charlie Arthur (IRE)
    6.50 Southwell 4 Charlie Arthur (IRE)
    6.50 Southwell 2 Durrell
    6.50 Southwell 8 Loch Ness Monster (IRE)
    7.20 Southwell 6 Kyoto Star (FR)
    7.20 Southwell 8 Lord Warburton (IRE)
    7.20 Southwell 5 Thawry
    7.20 Southwell 10 Mackelly (IRE)
    7.50 Southwell 2 Branston Lion (IRE)
    7.50 Southwell 1 Mirage Mac
    7.50 Southwell 4 Beastie Boy (IRE)
    7.50 Southwell 4 Beastie Boy (IRE)
    7.50 Southwell 3 Eagles Realm
    7.50 Southwell 7 Thunderstone (IRE)
    8.20 Southwell 5 Capla Cubiste
    8.20 Southwell 3 Custard The Dragon
    8.20 Southwell 2 Amadeus Grey (IRE)
    8.20 Southwell 2 Amadeus Grey (IRE)
    8.20 Southwell 5 Capla Cubiste
    8.20 Southwell 8 Finery
    8.20 Southwell 9 Jazz Hands (IRE)
    8.20 Southwell 9 Jazz Hands (IRE)
    8.20 Southwell 12 Break The Silence
    I think i will stop at a winner ..lol ……. if i get one ? 🙂
    We got amy matches or are you not palying yet ??
    Laterz and enjoy the evening fest !! 🙂
    LGB ( excited as he is at christmas 🙂 )

    GEORGE B 06/10/20 4:08 PM Reply


    • Not sure you’ve got enough potential qualifiers for tonight GB!! 🙂 🙂
      Best of luck as always,
      Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 4:28 PM Reply


      • now now jw ……. just learning out loud …….. does you good to public them .. trains the mind and methods 🙂
        keeping the faith .. on we go !!

        lgb

        GEORGE B 06/10/20 4:31 PM Reply


    • Thank you George for letting me know they are not tips and not to be recorded, hope you have a good night
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 06/10/20 7:06 PM Reply


  • P.s. i think R Hughes .. could be going for a stable “acca” tonight ???

    GEORGE B 06/10/20 4:09 PM Reply


    • Hi G, no not starting till winter AW which I think is 22 October. Puchita did the biz for you in the first at Southwell. Good luck tonite!

      Mark Curtis 06/10/20 5:34 PM Reply


      • yeah never any good at lingers ..wmsl 🙂 .. can’t wait till the 22nd my friend 🙂

        GEORGE B 06/10/20 5:37 PM Reply


        • Not a bad night for your (very) long list G,in must admit I joined you on Maximum Risk so happy days.

          Mark Curtis 06/10/20 8:31 PM Reply


          • Well done i stopped at PUCHITA 🙂
            Dem dare ovens still need cleaning .. but come the end of the month they will be ready 🙂

            nite nite
            lgb

            GEORGE B 06/10/20 10:32 PM Reply


  • GREAT WHITE SHARK into as low as 7/1, hope some of you were on at 16`s etc yesterday. Wouldn`t be surprised to see her go off favourite on Saturday.

    Stewart 06/10/20 5:03 PM Reply


    • Jason Watson on board and he should give her a peach of a ride on Saturday, will not mind any change in going either way, so, ground not a problem. From what I have read from last year she was getting heated before hand because of her stable companions.. don`t know how true that is, but, seems odd they only have the one this year, compared to a handful every other year previous.

      Stewart 06/10/20 5:09 PM Reply


    • Yes, good eagle eyes Stewart – I got on at 14s I think for interest, before the plunge. Given he is just sending one and everything else. Anyway, looks like you’ll be smashing SP which is half the battle, and even more so AP.
      GL, Josh

      Josh 06/10/20 5:10 PM Reply


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