Members Daily Post: 05/10/20 (complete)

Wolvs/Ponte musings… Quals

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updatedย  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None.

 

2.Jumps Profiles

None.

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)ย 

NTD

12.45 Strat – Imperial Acolyte (any, 10/1< best)

 

4.Other/Updates

Musings of possible interest…

With Stratford off there’s nothing to ponder/highlight over jumps this side of the water, but…

Wolvs

For the sand fans, and anyone else playing on the AW/flat for the remainder of the season – William Buick appears to want this Jockey Championship and wants to give it a good go. He was only 10 or so behind I think when I last looked, no idea if extended again. In any case he’s got 5 rides on the card today, having had 7 in the last year. (2/7,3p). In 5 years he’s 8/24, 12p, (-7). The odds compilers may well be putting his in shorter than they should be, but as a ‘way in’ , i’d suggest any of his rides are worth a closer look, esp for trainers he wouldn’t usually be associated with. If you’re offered Will, esp on an AW card, there won’t be many saying no I doubt, esp smaller yards. His agent will be trying to put him on horses he/she thinks have a good chance etc. He’s 14/63, 30p in the last 14 days.

He’ll probably have no winners today, but something to keep in mind and his mounts may be worth a lookย  – the x3 David Evans horses seem fairly well fancied.

Pontefractย 

I did just have a quick look at those jockeys who do well here when it’s soft through to heavy, since start of 2016, those with five or more winners… all rides… some logic for why certain jockeys may do well in extreme goings on the Flat at certain tracks, but in any case these three have done well…

 

  • Ben Curtis: 7/32, 11p, +21 BFSP
  • Jimmy Sullivan: 6/29, 15p, +35
  • David Allan: 6/30, 12p, +25

 

I think they have around 16 rides between them today.

If you’re a free registered Geegeez user you get access to all the pace maps today I think, which is no bad thing for Ponte – esp when soft I doubt – I assume they’ll all try and come across to this nearside rail, and you won’t want to be stuck low necessarily, or so far back you have to challenge up the middle of the track. We shall see, it will interesting what the jockeys do.

Anyway, their rides may be worth a second glance.

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Back to my jumps research and sorting everything for Nov 1st.

GL with any bets, and if you do fancy anything on the level today, do tell us! Praise for winners, and we ignore the losers ๐Ÿ™‚

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. An 11/2 winner and a loser for the dutching bets on Sunday.

    On Monday we are off to Pontefract for the 2.00.

    After John – a solid win last time out, a course and distance winner, has won on soft, has won in this class.

    Nearly A Gonna – is down two classes here, has won in this class, has won at this distance, good draw.

    Good luck Martin

  2. 4 ew shot’s at Pontefract , i’ve allowed myself ยฃ15 so 4 x ยฃ1.50 ew and a 10p ew L15
    1-30. Bodacious Name 14-1
    2-00. Penny Pot Lane 12-1
    3-00. Dawn Breaking 12-1 ( i got 18-1 early doors)
    3-30. Kylie Rules 18-1

  3. Morning,

    I know you all are ready for the Jumps and so am I , so long as we don`t go into another lockdown I think we should all be ok.
    Just a quick aside, you all know how much I bang on about the Mullins horses, but , his top ones are really wiping the floor with everything else at the moment. Easy Game beat a small, but, talented field on Saturday in a canter and the same could be said of a brilliant novice called Shewearsitwell yesterday at Tipperrary. The point I`m trying to make is The Cesarawitch on Saturday, yes, he has 9 declared, but, the lowest price ones are 16/1 at the moment and I wouldn`t put you off backing all 9, as I strongly believe he targets this race every year and has a damn good record in it to boot!
    Yes, you could end up losing 9pts, but, it`s risk/reward with Mullins horses and you know every one of them will be at peak fitness and trying all the way to the line!
    Just my ten penneth for a dreary Monday in October!

      1. GL Stewart, his runners will def be worth a second look – Ante Post always tricky, as I don’t think all 9 will be showing up, probably 4 or 5 max, so you’re 4/5 points down before you start, but then of course it’s whether the odds of those that remain make up for that. I assume bookies not at NRNB ?! 34 max field in the race and he’s got 4 that are numbers 57 or lower, so need stacks to come out/not be declared, which may well happen esp if ground atrocious. Hard to know. Conditions may suggest it will be one for the jumps trainers again.

        You formed any thoughts as yet as to your Mullins preference?

        1. The forecast this week looks reasonable on the whole for Newmarket, maybe the odd light shower and 11mm late Thurs/early Friday. I would guess at good to soft at worst for Saturday, heavy would make it interesting, it usually does!

    1. To be fair Josh, you are quite correct, most will not run and my preference is for 4 at the moment with a couple of musings behind it.
      BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP 16/1 best price
      Has been tried on both sides of the equation, flat and jumps, needs a big galloping, undulating track to really “wind herself up” and the distance also, will get every yard of the 2m 2f, only slight negative, weight and she has run in the race previously, different tactics may be employed on Saturday and i think she will go closer this time.
      GREAT WHITE SHARK 20/1 best price
      Was strongly fancied last year, but, bolted loose on way to start and got really wound up before race, blew her chance then, but, this year, so long as the same doesn`t happen I believe she is “The One”, of all of the Mullins bunch, better in form this year, carrying a complete feather weight of maybe around 8st 9lbs and the better form, after bolting up in a hcp hurdle race at Galway in July, is there for all to see.
      LEGAL SPIN 33/1 gen best price
      Another who may not make the cut, but, interesting to see the owners have supplemented two and these are the last two of my 4. This is one of those feather weight ones that Mullins loves and if he doesn`t go here I would definitely say a horse to follow over the autumn/ winter months, has only won once, but, has bags of ability and like i said the feather weights will help him stay just ahead of the handicapper this season.
      ROYAL ILLUSION 20/1 gen best price
      Owners Ballylinch stud, who have a great pedigree over in Ireland, obviously by the looks of it, are after the prize here with two representatives and if both get in wouldn`t back against either, they know where to place horses and Mr Mullins has two of their horses, so, expect both of them to run well, if that happens..RI is another “unknown” horse from the yard, but, like I said he will have them fired up no doubt and expect a showing from all of them!

  4. Now that Stratford is off I only have 4 system bets for today.
    Here you go, thank me later ๐Ÿ™‚
    Pont 13:00 War Defender
    Pont 13:00 General Zoff
    Wolv 19:30 Polastri
    Wolv 20:30 May The Sixth

  5. No lists today. Taking a break from the Gogglebox.

    One from my Wolverhampton sires angle
    7:30 ONALEDGE 5/1

    As always good luck. ๐Ÿ™‚

  6. Josh you could add Paul Hanagan : 5/27, 3p, +15.56 BFSP
    He has a good ride in the 14:00 aboard Musharrif for the in form Declan Carroll. Also 18pts clear on HRB ratings and is 3/16 at Pontefract. Hanagan has had 1 ride on him before and won. Best at 5f but has a CD win albeit on good to firm. Trainer’s not so bad at he track either. So it’s only the trip and going that are niggles!!
    Around 9/1 now and 13.5 on BF. Sofa raid imminent.

    1. You could do yep – not sure why I didn’t throw him in! Unless I stuck on those with more than 5, or had a 20% win SR cut off in my head also, but any case dealing with small numbers obv, and he does ride the place well on softer, inc on Musharrif LTO, which may have been the time to catch him, we shall see.
      Rather tough from 15 i’d have thought, but being wide/grabbing the rail important, just depends how much ground lose getting there/whether get stuck wide – Ben Curtis may well get a relative freebie on the front, we shall see, although in a field like that and given all jockeys know it’s game over if marooned up the middle on soft, some will be more aggressive I suspect. Interesting little race.
      GL

      1. Thanks for adding the draw issue to the going and distance ๐Ÿ™‚ ….. I’m doomed if I’m honest, still 5 places up for grabs at 10/1…I hope I get back to work quickly, this could be a costly few weeks otherwise ๐Ÿ™‚ …. I should stick to systems, I’m out of my depth here.
        On another note I missed your email reply from a while back, I’ll get on to that at some time soon ๐Ÿ˜‰

  7. Read page 15 of the Daily Mail on bookmaker Paddy Power.
    It really amazes me how anyone can have any respect for any bookmaker, and why nothing is ever done to make them toe the line, simple take the licence off one to trade and the others would have a diffrent approach very quickly.
    Colin

      1. Not today, was potential 5 bets but to many negatives and two have already lost, I will put the revamped Colins bets on board if that is what Josh and other members like yourself Lord Lucan want, mind you have had 5 losers in October so may not be a wise move!
        Cheers
        Colin

  8. JSUT A COUPLE OF CUPP OF CAKES FOR TONIGHT
    FROM THE NEW AND REFRESHED LGB OVENS (Gradually one by one that is )
    NOT bets or advices just trialing some new recipes ๐Ÿ˜‰
    7.00 Wolverhampton 3 International Law
    7.00 Wolverhampton 7 Lady Elysia
    7.30 Wolverhampton 5 Kim Wexler (IRE)
    8.00 Wolverhampton 1 Zulu Zander (IRE)
    8.30 Wolverhampton 10 Portias Pearl
    let’s just see how much i have to change the temperature on these ovens after toinghts fancies ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Evening all !! ๐Ÿ™‚
    lgb
    Southwell tomorrow ….. yippee ! ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. CHEERS MC …… FIZZLED OUT IN THE END ………….but just finishing off the icing on the cakes now , recipes are looking better and better ๐Ÿ˜‰ …. we will soon be cooking on gas my man !! … let the sand gates open !! ๐Ÿ™‚

      lgb ๐Ÿ™‚

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