Members Daily Post: 04/10/20 (complete)

Jumps quals, pointers, update

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None on Sunday from me. Message below. 

 

2.Jumps Profiles 2020/21

(All ‘any odds’) (1/6,3p, -2.5)

2.30 Kelso- Blue Kascade

3.16 Uttox – Dagueneua (11/1< best)

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

 

UPDATE

As of today, Sunday 4th Oct, i’m switching all the regular daily content over to the Jumping game and they’ll be no further flat stats qualifiers/tips posted from me. I will pull together a results update next week – ‘high summer’, June/July/August were decent on the stats front, generally, and then the wheels well and truly came off in September. Some pondering to do on that front but there’s probably a fair bit of logic for why those months were decent – fresh horses, unexposed, capper not got them, ground more consistent/sun on back etc – or maybe there is nothing in it.  Flat wise… for the enthusiasts out there I will still try to pull together relevant stats/trends/videos for the odd big handicap that remains, but given what could be a wet week or two, I think it’s best I switch the mind to most things jumping – and i’ve a fair bit to do back end before Nov 1st rolls around. 

I will share the Jumps profiles research in time (will be complete by Wednesday), not sure whether to send it out free or access for those who join in Nov, probably the latter. It’s new research with one angle per trainer, looking at a few, Oct-April, no odds caps – which are not great for readers, it’s a funny time given no On-Course bookies, and it saves me having to post a ‘qualifying’ price in the morning. There has been some method to my madness in digging into the trainers I have and so far these include Nicky Henderson, Fergal O’B, Tom Lacey, Harry Fry, Paul Nicholls, Sandy Thomson, M Scudamore, Emma Lavelle, Dr Newland, Phillip Hobbs and Twister. There may be a couple more, but I don’t want reams of horses listed – it was a bit too much at times during the flat season. Whether they work systematically, time will tell. I’d take +40 points from them right now. I’m always hopeful they will, but in any case a decent ‘way in’ for you to comb through the evening before if you so wish. As an idea, focusing on any you may think will lead/race prominently, is never a bad place to focus, esp the chasers, and of course making a judgement on current ‘trainer form’. 

Content – those qualifiers, and maybe 3-5 Jockey Profiles, along with the ‘monthly’ trainers will form the core daily stats content from me. But I will also look to throw in the odd stats/pace snippet or two the evening before, to use as you please, maybe based on some of those qualifiers, and a few other bits and pieces from my various tools. The odd ‘big meeting’ pointer or two, and of course a great focus on the Spring Festivals as usual, esp Cheltenham. 

They’ll be a feature handicap focus or two each week – the stats/trends/trainer pointers (Thursdays latest), and a video preview/walk through / pointers, (Friday lunchtime latest) so you have enough time before Saturday to use as you please. 

I should be doing more editorial/useful content through a week/month outside of ‘back this horse’ and the fun engagement/community stuff. More ‘how you could attack the content’ etc. 

Tipping… they’ll be daily tips (well average 1-2 per day, some days none) from Mr X (which is now confirmed, but I’ll reveal another time) and a couple of feature newsletters per month, with his unique view/experience of the game. I’m looking forward to reading those and the NH enthusiasts out there will really enjoy those. 

I’ll be stepping back from daily tipping and stop trying to be something I’m not. I don’t want to be a daily tipster and dedicating the time required to be good at it impacts everything else negatively-  and there are better people at that than me. My skills/time are much better spent elsewhere and trying to make this place a complete jumps ‘experience’ as we trundle through the winter months. 

Any of my tipping energies will be spent on the big feature handicaps (mainly chases) and Festivals – much of the 400/450 odd points from my jumps tips since 2015 or so has been in those races, with some numerous memorable big priced winners/memorable days. Hopefully a fresher mind will help me on that front, esp if I get to Saturday’s races on Thursday/Friday having not been staring in depth at races/horses all week, while doing everything else I want, including reviewing said action the following week in a engaging/useful way – and really getting my head around that group of horses/connections etc. When I’m good in those jumps races/the Festivals, I’m very good, but haven’t been for a little while, so we shall see. Although some of that will have been a mathematical correction – maintaining +60-90 point ‘Festival Weeks’ is clearly challenging.  In any case I’m confident Mr X will do very well on the ‘tipping’ side of things over the course of the season. I will approach those big feature handicaps in a way that hopefully helps you solve the puzzle yourself, while having the option to go with my opinion if you so wish.  

So, there will be plenty for you to get stuck into, as well as the comments from your good selves. I am conscious of ‘less can be more’ and will be working hard to provide quality over quantity. 

Moving forward – well obviously this winter season is going to be big on a few fronts. Although I quite enjoy such pressure and I’m excited about the new addition to the ‘team’. 

For the winter All-Weather fans out there-  i’ve never done much on that front in terms of daily content, and wont’ be, but I will try to pull the odd report together for you, to use how you please. But in any case, there’s 3/4 of you who have that well covered in the comments.

And if you don’t like the jumping game and want a tipster to follow, Gary at Always-Back-Winners, keeps banging them in, +155 odd points this flat season now, and will be trying to match his +65 points or so last winter on the sand. (80% off first month HERE>>>

Next Summer- as I write I don’t know what my plans will be from May onwards – the winter offering will likely just be a ‘winter season ticket’ as discussed (£1, 28 days, 30 day money back guarantee, so in effect 58 days to see if for you. I’m yet to decide the cost of that as yet) – that’s for numerous reasons, but it means I’m not tied down to producing content next summer at this point in time, and I can take a chunk of May off without worrying about subs etc. It could be I need to spend that summer time differently, business wise – RTP race days, more ‘educational’ stuff, ‘in conversation with X’ – mix it up a bit, so every month, all year round, doesn’t feel the same. In truth I’m not sure this summer’s efforts would have justified a fee. We shall see, but that’s for another day.

The core has to be and will always be the winter game and I have to get that right. But I’m excited about that challenge. 

Josh

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Some further pointers for Sunday’s jumps profile quals to help in any deliberation, or to note for the future… not a subjective judgement as to their chance..

2.30 Kelso- Blue Kascade

  • Sandy is 7/24, 16p at Kelso in the last year
  • Trainer/Jockey are 6/17, 12p, +7 here in the last year
  • In ALL chases at the track in last 5 years Sandy is 11/45, 18p, +14
  • Diving into HRB… Sandy is solid with the old boys… handicap chases / 11yo+… 10/55, 24p, +99 BFSP since 2010.

 

3.16 Uttox – Dagueneua (11/1< best)

  • Lavelle/Wedge building up a good relationship, 9/27, 14p, +26 in all handicaps when teaming up in the last 2 years. I think he’s a jockey to watch this season, and anything he rides may be a decent ‘way in’… their non handicap record not much to shout about yet, but 1/2,1p in NHF races, +11.
  • The horse… well just to note the front 3 were  miles clear LTO, the winner yet to come out again. The 3rd has, and won a C2 NTO off 121 fairly well.

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That’s all from me for Sunday.

GL with any bets, i’ll hope those two above go well for system purposes, but the day is obviously about whether Enable can make history – I really hope she decimates them. What a star.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. The dutching on Saturday – well an 11/2 place and a non runner.

    The ‘non tips’ re soft going runners brought a 9/1 winner, a non runner and a place.

    Dutching for Sunday – I will take on Emiton in the 2.46 at Uttoxeter with two horses coming back off breaks.

    Bossman Fred – trainer has some course form, won on the ground, won in this class.

    Hurricane Harvey – trainer in form, still improving, has won a couple of races comfortably.

    So 1 point each way if 5/1 or better, if not then 2 points win both.

    Good luck Martin

  2. Josh, good luck with your winter selections. I have been following your every move since June when I was told of you by Tony McCarthy. I joined Geegeez at the same time.
    I believe Geegeez is fantastic and also believe you know your stuff. I have watched loads of videos from yourself to help me with Geegeez. I have not had all that much success particularly recently but I am definitely going to stick with it as I am sure better times are ahead.
    One aspect I would love to pick up on in the winter game is an assessment of jumping ability in different types of ground particularly in long distance chases. This added to a pace angle ,trainer form and prevailing going are the key ingredients. I rate all the courses in difficulty of the actual fences as I feel you need a good jumper at some and it is not so important at others. Is there anywhere where there is a rating of jumping ability. Cheers. Keith Watson

    1. Hi Keith,
      Thanks for posting, and indeed reading. I occasionally know my stuff… But this is a bloody tough sport in which to consistently come out on top, but I think that’s why we all enjoy it so much. It wouldn’t be as engaging if it was easy. The tricky part is trying to work out whether methods etc need to change/tweaking or any horror periods are just variance etc. Usually a mix of the two but history, last 5 years or so, esp over jumps, would suggest I generally do ok and can pull rabbits out the hat every now and then. I wouldn’t mind being more consistent and the swings not being so dramatic but as yet I’m not sure how to solve that, esp if targeting big/competitive c2s/g3s etc.

      Geegeez… It is superb kit but as with any tools I suppose its only one part of the puzzle. It gives any subscriber a much greater chance of success but you still need some sort of method… And focusing on chasers, who lead/prom, jumping etc isn’t a bad starting point in which to try and instill some discipline.

      I’m terms of jumping ability… In the tools I use, HRB and Geegeez, I don’t think there’s a way of assess a horses jumping ability with metrics. I’ve no idea if such assessments exist elsewhere.

      The only way really is to just watch replays and see how naturally a horse jumps, how fluent, how they jump when booted into a fence or left to pop over them. And indeed when under pump in final furlongs.

      In HRB there is a function to look at fence stiffness and obviously some tracks are stiff and others easy. There may be some work I could do on a) just identifying/highlighting fences and b) whether certain trainers do well with certain fence types. That may just be more down to the level of horses they have and the tracks they target. But clearly identifying a horse that can jump well at Cheltenham, Newbury, Haydock, Aintree mildmay maybe, Sandown, Ascot… I mean if you can jump around any of those you can generally jump. Prob a few more on top of that but I’ll dive into HRB and see who they score as what. Of course fences are re built every season.

      But it very much can be using the eyes to watch. But a chaser running at any of those above having been pottering around a Bangor, Market Rasen, Ludlow etc will have new questions to answer. Although based on some races last season Ludlow appeared to be a stiffer test than it had been.

      Keeping notes on your view on jumping ability is no bad thing. A bad error in a chase is far more damaging than any actual weight carried or handicap mark going up ets.

      Anyway, some thoughts. I’ll see if I can do a post/video on that topic and maybe cover pace etc again.

      Josh

  3. Hmm, so on a meh day, somehow feel good on four selections:
    14:46 U Hurricane Harvey – Fergal magic and placed in all of last eight races
    15:16 U Yes No Maybe So – Lacey and summer has been awesome
    16:08 T Whatsinthecorner – Hanlon doing well to date
    16:43 T Back on the Bridle – Hanlon as above

    Good luck all,

    1. Good luck Nige. Yep Hanlon worth keeping an eye on this season, some sort of renaissance to some degree. He’s changed approach this season I think… Well, he used to trade/sell a lot of his pointers, that has been main business in recent years. But has decided to keep more of them and run them under rules. And they generally seem to have been in better form. Still need some picking but should have a few drop in at OK prices and be interesting to see how he does with younger/less exposed ones that he previously may have sold. GL

  4. On my reading of the Emma Lavelle micro-stat, Dagueneau does not qualify, having had more than 1 run in the last 90 days.

    Admittedly its 2nd run back was 88 days ago (close to the cut-off), but those with 2 runs in 90 days which still meet all other criteria for the stat are just 3 from 27 for approx. 11 points loss at BSP.

    1. Hi Rob,
      It’s a different angle, apols for any confusion.
      There’s a Lavelle Monthly/autumn trainer angle and as per above no qualifiers on that one.
      This new Jumps Profile angle is a season long, Oct-April angle which has done well historically. I’ll likely share said research in Nov for anyone who joins etc and can judge the angles etc.
      Josh

  5. tough day yesterday with abandoned meeting and non runner. what was left of the c3+ list had 2 winners and 2 places. over on the all weather the sole c4+ race had the winner and a place so happy days for the aw.
    my picks.
    2 were non runners but the other half life ran a cracking race to get second just didnt have enough with the winner but i it was the best of the godolphin trio. wondering why they sent her over was the train of though. stagiair looked a bit of a handful at the start of the race but settled and looked to be traveling well but when it came to the business end of the race was flat. not good enough.

    no flat racing in the uk……. 🙁
    not to fear 🙂 the french have come to the rescue. take this lot with a pinch of salt because it could be a train wreck lol
    LONGCHAMP
    13-15 sealiway / nando parrado
    13-50 tiger tanaka / fev rover / kings harlequin
    14-25 ebraz / hayyan
    15-05 ***ENABLE*** but if i had to pick something else stradivarius / gold trip
    15-50 tarnawa / alpine star / durance
    16-25 glass slipper / keep busy / archer dream
    16-55 irska / tropbrau / rubaiyat
    17-25 rocquemont / alfieri / true romance
    17-55 space ace / dream academy / kanderas
    my pick.
    IRSKA 33/1 E/W won a group 3 in heavy going last time and hit the front early enough to suggest that although this is the first attempt dropping back to 7f she could be bang there at the line. i think she is a massive price and could easily place if not better.

    other observations
    the skeltons do quite well for themselves at Uttoxeter and hopefully will bag a winner or two today. hopefully the first.
    12-35 durl rock 33/1
    13-05 faivoir 11/10
    14-16 ever so cool 10/3
    14-46 boss man fred 10/3
    15-16 west to the bridge 12/1
    16-16 midnight river 4/1

    thats all from me good luck if your having a go today 🙂

  6. Re The Arc I have laid Enable at 7/4 and 11/8. The ground is not good and six year old’s do not have a good profile.

    I do not like much in the race but I will take Sottsass and In Swoop against the field.

    Good luck Martin

  7. Apologies in advance for any cantankerous comments made by me in the next couple of weeks 🙂
    I’m sat here recovering from hernia surgery so I’ll probably be spouting my usual systematic s**t from time to time. Anyway none of that for today just a trixie based on at least 3 of following criteria from HRB, hot race, good trainer, jockey or sire strike rates.
    13:40 Uttoxeter Glengar
    15:46 Uttoxeter Statuario
    16:00 Kelso Slainte Mhor

    1. Polite cantankerous comments always fine Chris, esp if questioning any of my efforts!! 🙂
      Hope you’re feeling a1 asap.
      Josh

    1. Yes, a bumper pay day, what with them being in cross doubles with the dutching picks and the lay of Enable. Plus I had the forecast for a few quid.

      I do not usually bet on Sundays and so happy days.

  8. Thanks for your reply and time Josh. I am a great admirer of your knowledge and in particular your friendly easy to like character. I too am really looking forward to the jumps and some of your ways into a race. I have been a racing lover for 50 years(started very young) and in the last few months have seen the game in a completely different way. Geegeez and Racing to Profit have shown me all sorts of new angles. Amazingly until June I did not realise for example how much advantage there is in a lot of races for early pace.
    I have spoken to a few northern trainers in my time and I honestly do not think a lot of them are aware of the percentages of the pace in a race, or other advantages they could employ.
    It would be great if you could flag up a few good jumpers and I am going to formulate by looking back some jumping ratings and think I know courses at which they are advantaged.
    Good Luck. KEITH WATSON

    1. No problem Keith, in part that’s what I’m here for… Questions, probing, musing out loud etc so we can all try and improve over time… Or at least enjoy the journey together, even if virtually, in what can at times be a ‘lonely’ hobby. I try to be myself and see how far that gets me!

      Oh I think in terms of pace you’re right about some connections maybe not being aware fully… But then again not everything can lead and there are valid reasons for holding horses up and some are only at their best when patiently ridden etc. If I was training I’d try and find a method of getting as many horses with the ability/mindset to set pace/lead. But some in their characters are followers etc.
      With Really Super… A few of us impresses early how we wanted her ridden, pushing pace or close if possible, esp over fences.. But first few runs their gaining experience etc.

      She’s not a bad horse to watch videos of actually. Watch her Kempton chase win back… Awful at the 1st, Jack then got stuck into her for a few strides, she stopped messing around and didn’t half fly some of those fences… That race actually demonstrates good and bad jumping, watch some of those behind and how much ground you lose by shoddy jumping.
      Then also watch her Summer Plate win and esp the final 3 fences… Esp 3 out… That’s what a good jump looks like. You can make ground, or hold a position with good jumping while using the least amount of energy. Mix that ability with ability to hold a prom position, have tactical pace, and you will just win races. Capper gets you eventually of course but then with mares at least there are small field listed options etc.

      It is important not to judge a young/inxp chaser too much, esp if with point form say. In these novice chases they can be ridden for experience/to enjoy themselves, and they don’t go quick enough. A quicker pace can help etc.
      Always plenty to ponder but just focusing on chase races isn’t a bad idea at all.
      Josh

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