Members Daily Post: 03/10/20 (complete)

Tipsx3, + write ups, Quals, Challenge Cup info etc

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020/21: The Flat / The Jumps 

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(167 tips/19 wins/57 places (inc wins) /+26.1 points, advised/ +21.4 Betfair SP) 

3.05 Ascot 

Abandoned. 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020/21:

The Flat

4.35 Red – Mayfair Pompette (14/1< guide)

4.30 Newm – Lawahed (7/1< guide)

 

The Jumps 

(all ‘any’ odds) (1/6,3p, -2.5)

3.29 Font – Hang In There (11/1< best) 5/1 UP -1

3.29 Font – Hijack 3/1 2nd -1

4.04 Font – Dustin Des Mottes (any) 5/2 2nd -1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding

2.45 Newm – Cloak of Spirits (20/1< guide)

Jim Crowley (any)

2.45 Newm – Nazeef WON

Kevin Stott (16/1<)

1.45 Red – Zealous

2.15 Red – Rum Runner H1

4.35 Red – Cruising

5.05 Red – Manshood

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

Emma Lavelle (14/1<)

(1/6, 3p, -0.5)

3.29 Font – Hang In There 5/1 UP

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips 

7.30 Wolvs – Leodis Dream

 

6.Other/Updates

The Challenge Cup post, inc video, HERE>>> 

 

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Ascot Challenge Cup

Admirality – I struggled to leave him, esp given his place on my trends shortlists, top rated on HRB and he could be drawn in the right place, up against this stand side rail. He’s a strong traveller with, at his best, some of the best handicapping form in the race, and his jockey should be able to put him where he wants. He deserves a big one. When trained in Ireland he had some decent efforts in a soft/heavy and over 8f, so I don’t think conditions will be a problem. It may be no bad thing having a light weight either, especially if this does go heavy. He should keep going and has the form to win this. He does like placing plenty but hopefully these conditions can see him slog it out. He’s also got course form, having ran a respectable 5th in The International Stakes, won by Raising Sands – he was drawn the wrong side that day, but did ‘win’ his side from a 1lb higher mark. 14s or so looked a bit overpriced to me. 

Blown By Wind – a riskier one at a bigger price but in the end I couldn’t get away from the fact he’s the only horse in the race with any sort of win in Heavy, if indeed it does get that testing. He’s a big old unit with a pounding knee action and i’m sure he could well be best on soft – although his overall profile would suggest he doesn’t care. One of his best efforts was last October at Musselburgh in soft, comfortably beating Montatham by 3l. That was off 93 but he’s only 2lb higher than when winning on seasonal return, in a solid enough race, beating Pogo that day. Some of his RPRs suggest 102 is in range. He is a bit of a monkey I think and has been a terror at the start/out of the stalls a few times. So, he is risky, but he’s a decent price and he has the form to compete, and he may well relish the ground. He also gets SDS for the first time and that’s rarely a bad thing, and maybe his more busy style will ensure he’s quicker away – although they may not go that quick, and it may not matter. In what did feel an open race, I was happy to chance him.

Wise Counsel – well possibly one last hurrah in a Flat handicap this season, we shall see, and maybe for a good long while from me, who knows, but i thought i’d throw one more from the trends list into the mix at a decent price. Danny T rides for his retained owner here and this one ran ok in The Ayr Gold Cup from high, and this isn’t as deep as that I don’t think. That race has also produced 6 winners of this. He will also appreciate the return to 7f and possibly the softening ground. In his seasonal return at Haydock he cruised around on heavy, before blowing up and his wins have been with cut in the ground. Maybe he wants a test. The draw is a niggle if a nearside track/going bias but at 22s i’ll roll the dice and he does have Jacks Point and Kynren to tow him into it. There is more to come from him in handicaps and the CP appear to have helped.

Of the rest…

Well, clearly Kynren or Raising Sands could take this, that wouldn’t be a shock. But they both have the odd question, in the context of their price, and I didn’t think they were overpriced. I did ponder wading into Kynren EW but that really isn’t my style and not in these races, so avoided doing that. No doubt he’ll hack up now! They both should go well but they’re no handicap spring chickens. River Nymph may well bolt up again – proper soft is a question and he’s 11lb higher than his last win – he does need to step forward again, which he may do, but I wasn’t confident enough to think 6s was value.

King Ottokar has been well backed through the day, and I can’t say I wanted to dive in at 7s for all that his mark of 100 may look ok in a handicap at some point. Still, whether 7f suits is anyone’s guess – maybe you’ll need to stay much further, but then they may not go that quick. He’s been gelded, has a visor and has questions, for all that LTO was eye-catching. He can beat me at 7s for all that Charlie does like an Ascot handicap winner.

Of the outsiders that looked interesting –

Well maybe Ropey Guest at 20s but he’s 0/12 on turf and made hard work of his win LTO. None of his career RPRs are above his current mark and while he has some solid efforts to his name in C1s, plenty of them have arguably been mediocre enough for the grade. He may well relish conditions though and could be drawn in the right place. Still, he hasn’t shown enough for me, I talked myself out of him.

Orbaan – he would probably be the most annoying of the double digits left alone given his place on the stats/trends shortlist – but he is always ridden so cold, even when Jamie isn’t on! Proper soft is also a question for him and in the end I think he will need to pass everything, and that’s put me off. He is a smooth traveller though, but whether he’s well handicapped is also open to debate. Although he’s lightly raced over here and for his age. I can see a big run from him but hopefully never quite getting there. O’Meara is in form but throws x3 darts at this, which can be read negatively, maybe. (that irony isn’t lost on me!)  They remove the hood which is interesting and it may spark him up, which could be ok given this first try over 7f for connections. Again, questionable whether that will suit, I wasn’t sure.

If something else wins I probably wasn’t that close in truth, which would be annoying but no doubt a sign to sign off on the flat, with a whimper.

Greenside is now 9 and is 7lb higher than when beat in this last year, and his jockey claimed more. 70 days off also. Maybe the ability to handle conditions will count for plenty but not for me.

Shelir has a question over proper soft and I thought he needed more in a race like this, 6lb above his last win, with a question over C2 I think, for all that he has the odd decent run. 10s didn’t feel generous enough to my eyes.

Revich is interesting to a point but on his 20th handicap, on a career high handicap mark, 6lb above that win two starts ago – although that was his highest at that time, so he could still be open to progress. That race hasn’t worked out well though and he seemed held LTO, with a 5lb claimer on board. Soft should be fine. The yard are also a bit quiet.

Blue Mist has a ground question and form/mark after his effort LTO. Guessing a bit as to whether he will handle proper soft, around 10/11s. It remains to be seen whether those drawn lower will be marooned up the middle also, which I suppose is a risk for Blown By Wind but he’s more than double the price and is in the middle.

The other four can beat me, Young Fire is 0/5, 0p 91+, 0/5,0p C2, 1st run here. But is 2/8 on turf and conditions shouldn’t be a problem. This is a career high mark though, so that to prove. The other three have even more questions in conditions I think.

So, that’s that. Fingers crossed one of them can give me something to cheer.

Pace wise… well, you can see that in the video above! 🙂

Do post a comment with any fancies – you’ll get praised for winning picks/reasoning, with losers generally ignored! 🙂

GL, Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Hope your right with admirality josh when you put up the challenge cup page yesterday I had a look and he caught my eye instantly. Put confidence in my initial look at him 🙂

    1. I’ll take him winning right now!! Obv he will come an honourable 2nd haha. His 2019 big handicap form is so strong. He should be bang there I think, provided his soft ground form is true form, esp when in Ireland. I can dream if my three just tanking through the mud and having it between themselves! GL

  2. Thought the Challenge Cup was way too unpredictable to bet myself. Nothing well treated, likely swamp conditions, no identifiable pace, lots of jockeys claiming significant (or could be significant) weight

    Just one bet for me in the Rous Stakes

    LAST EMPIRE – had the lot ew with 5 places at Will Hills.

    More rain the better

    1. That may well prove the wisest decision of the day on that race!! I did consider the same but well, in the end, I couldn’t help myself!

  3. I am back….from North Devon that is……where the internet works Monday and Tuesday evenings and the Queen’s birthday!!!!! It only took us 8 hours in the car to get back on Friday.

    Anyway….September ended with a profit of 7 points. The fourth month in a row making a profit and +33 points combined over that period. So on target still for the 100 points profit in a year. I start proofing them to a site in January 2021….unless the virus brings a halt to whatever.

    For October I thought I would undertake a trial of dutching (backing two horses in the same race for a profit if one wins etc). Any thoughts on dutching welcomed. I will have a go on Saturday but have not looked at the cards yet.

    Good luck Martin

    1. Hope you had a great time Martin, I had wondered where you’d gone! No harm in a few no Internet days! They’re solid, consistent, profits. Superb work. Onwards. (I’ve no insightful views on Dutching, I’m sure others may)
      Josh

    2. i dutch regularly. its a slow and steady profit wise but you only need a couple of biggies and your well in. funny you should mention dutching i had one of my best days yesterday nearly 60pts on the day. caution though bad days can be really bad. but good luck with it. it works for me. 🙂

  4. Been having a look at the Ascot 1-55 and i have a question , how does times on the AW equate to turf are they normally slower/faster ? Hareem Queen won a class 1 listed in 57.10 sec on the AW faster than any of the others resent wins on turf , she has never run in soft and k burke has Richard Kingscote up. Of course this could just be to get her ready for the AW proper season. Of the usual suspect’s i’m starting to side with Moss Gill but there’s probably 7 you could make a good case for.

    1. Good question Martin and like all answers really depends on the type of track and the weather…..rain tends to quicken the AW which is logical when you think about it….on a beach when the tide is going out the sand is flat and hardens whereas the very dry sun drenched at the top of the beach is powdery, dry and your feet sink and holds you back….same effect on the AW.

      Track difference is important as well, fibre sand at Southwell rides slower ( in general) than polytrack at Kempton and Lingfield. Tapeta is different again and Wolvs and Newcastle ride differently though they are both Tapeta….and the going description can vary on all the surfaces from std, std to slow and fast, within each of the different surfaces…

      To account for the going I use the figures that account for different going on turf which are as follows: Good to Firm .17 seconds per furlong. Good .2 seconds per furlong. Good to Soft .3 secs per furlong. Soft .65 seconds per furlong and Heavy 1.2 seconds per furlong. This is about as accurate I can get. So say Newcastle on the AW Tapeta is described as riding std to slow I would adjust the time by .3 seconds per furlong which is the equivalent of good to soft on turf.

      In addition to the going you have to make adjustments for each different course AW and turf over every different distance…For example Epsom over 5 furlongs as standard time for that course takes 55.3 seconds to run. Southwell ( 4f 214 yds) = 59.7 seconds, Wolvs (5f 21 yds) 61.90 secs, Kempton 60.50 secs, Newc. 59.5 secs. Lingfield 5f 6yds 58.8 secs

      Not every distance described as being over 5f is actually 5f exactly as evidenced above and this applies to every distance over every track in the UK that is why it is unique and not uniform as in the USA. You have to make adjustments for distance and track as well as going…it is very time consuming to assess a race but there are no shortcuts so hope this helps in answering your question ….gd lck.

  5. My picks for The Challenge Cup :
    Blown By Wind nothing really to add to Josh’s reasoning above
    Raising Sand a winner over c&d in soft ground last year probably needed run lto on return.

  6. 3.05 A RIVER NYMPH = Mr Adam Kitby .. at one of his best tracks for blazing his straight line trail from a perfect middle draw . ( i can see a magical dawn moment here ) . You have been warned 😉
    LGB

  7. yesterdays c3=list had 4 winners and 3 places from the 6 races.
    the aw c4+ only had 1 place from the one race.

    as ive done the last few saturdays for a bit of fun i will put my prefered pick if i was to have an interest from each race in capitals.
    todays c3+ video replay list
    NEWMARKET
    13-40 fairy dust / sumara bay / ITALIAN BREEZE / mighty gurhka
    14-10 OTI MA BOATY / wonderous words / monnlight in paris
    14-45 champers elysees / HALF LIGHT / billesdon brook
    15-20 la lune / STAGIAIRE
    16-30 lorton / DREAM WORLD / nehaal
    REDCAR
    14-50 OSTILIO / my oberon
    15-25 shark two one / LULLABY MOON / spright
    ASCOT
    13-20 daahyeh / LEAFHOPPER / with thanks
    13-55 MAID IN INDIA / al raya / dakota gold
    14-30 logican / HIGHLAND CHIEF / litigator
    15-05 orbaan / river nymph / ADMIRALITY
    15-40 BREATHTAKING LOOK / brad the brief / raucous
    16-15 royal contex /MIGHTY SPIRIT / celsius

    aw c4+ video replay list
    WOLVERHAMPTON
    19-30 full authority / dandy’s gold / STEELRIVER

    MY PICKS
    MAID IN INDIA 5/1 has had problems in training but had a cracking run in a group 1 at the curragh last time out. a couple of weeks rest should freshen her up and she has the one of the best jockeys at ascot on board today.
    HALF LIGHT 12/1 interesting french trained entry for godolphin. interesting in the fact that godolphin has 2 english trained horses in the race so you do have to wonder why she has been brought over. very consistent all season and can handle the very soft stuff.
    STAGIAIRE 11/1 consistent aw form very little turf form. gets in on bottom weight today and stays further than this trip which may prove decisive if it becomes a bog today. ground wont be in issue for her.
    MIGHTY SPIRIT 7/1 potentially well treated 3yr old that could improve. has won on the soft stuff and again got the right jockey for the job today. no excuses today everything looks right for her. my bet of the day……

    thats all from me on silly Saturday good luck with your selections 🙂

  8. Oh, well, that’s probably the best result I’ve had for a while, esp on a Sat! How annoying. Probably a sign and given how awful Sept was on multiple fronts, I think I’ll be switching all content over to the jumps from tomorrow.

  9. Continuing the theme from yesterday, Jacamar, 1529 F, was pulled out of a competitive race at Warwick late last week, to run in this equally competitive race. Hmmmm. Currently 10 on the machine

  10. Day one of dutching is the 2.10 at Newmarket:

    Be More – has won on soft, trainer and jockey have good course form, has won in this class, has won at the course, distance winner, will be held up and come with a run, draw OK.

    Wondrous Words – very consistent, trainer in form, has won on soft, distance winner.

    So if we go 1 point each way at 5/1 or better or 2 points win if shorter to start, we can see how things evolve.

    Good luck Martin

  11. Don’t faint but in the 16.55 at Gowran, Put The Kettle On, was given out by Andy Holding as a good Champion Chase contender some time back on William Hill Radio horse racing channel…..an extremely useful source of racing information ….Very rarely, if ever, indulge in jumps racing but Andy is usually reliable where jumps racing is concerned so put this out as information NOT a selection so all the jumps enthusiasts on the site, who know a hell of a lot more than me in that regard can make up their own minds…enjoy…

  12. These are not formal tips but I was looking through the Newmarket card for each way bets that go on soft and have come up with:

    1.40, Italian Breeze – an open two year old race. This one jumps from class 5 to class 2 here after winning last time out. despite the trainer being out of form the horse still won. Has won at this distance.
    2.45, Nazeef – course and distance winner, has won in this class, draw OK, trainer in form plus he has good course form.
    4.30, Dream World – won at this course, won at distance, draw OK.

    Good luck Martin

  13. Wolverhampton
    7.30 Clareyblue
    8.00 Chookie Dunedin
    8.00 Lucky Lodge
    yesterday had one place 16/1 to 9/1 from the 3 bets, do not do ew
    what a terrible day weather wise and certainly give the turf racing a miss
    Colin

  14. 3:29F
    Josh, We have the Emma Lavelle angle in this race.
    Which is good enough on it’s own.
    add another interesting trend to it.
    Lavelle. First time hood. last four years have produced 6 winners from 13 races. won 20’s 16’s 8’s 7’s etc.
    HANG ON IN THERE.

    1. ah, interesting stats – yep, one for my ‘new’ jumps angles and for the autumn angle also, and one for Hendo, who is rather profitable in C2 handicap hurdles on Saturday’s, generally. Both have soft ground winning form at least, but as always fitness a question – Lavelles may get an easy lead though which always helps.
      GL, Josh

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