2.Trainer Profiles 2020/21: The Flat / The Jumps
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
5. Horses to Follow
The Flat 2020
(167 tips/19 wins/57 places (inc wins) /+26.1 points, advised/ +21.4 Betfair SP)
2.Trainer Profiles 2020/21:
4.35 Red – Mayfair Pompette (14/1< guide)
4.30 Newm – Lawahed (7/1< guide)
(all ‘any’ odds) (1/6,3p, -2.5)
3.29 Font – Hang In There (11/1< best) 5/1 UP -1
3.29 Font – Hijack 3/1 2nd -1
4.04 Font – Dustin Des Mottes (any) 5/2 2nd -1
3.Other Micro Angles
2.45 Newm – Cloak of Spirits (20/1< guide)
Jim Crowley (any)
2.45 Newm – Nazeef WON
Kevin Stott (16/1<)
1.45 Red – Zealous
2.15 Red – Rum Runner H1
4.35 Red – Cruising
5.05 Red – Manshood
4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
Emma Lavelle (14/1<)
(1/6, 3p, -0.5)
3.29 Font – Hang In There 5/1 UP
5. Horses to Follow
7.30 Wolvs – Leodis Dream
The Challenge Cup post, inc video, HERE>>>
Ascot Challenge Cup
Admirality – I struggled to leave him, esp given his place on my trends shortlists, top rated on HRB and he could be drawn in the right place, up against this stand side rail. He’s a strong traveller with, at his best, some of the best handicapping form in the race, and his jockey should be able to put him where he wants. He deserves a big one. When trained in Ireland he had some decent efforts in a soft/heavy and over 8f, so I don’t think conditions will be a problem. It may be no bad thing having a light weight either, especially if this does go heavy. He should keep going and has the form to win this. He does like placing plenty but hopefully these conditions can see him slog it out. He’s also got course form, having ran a respectable 5th in The International Stakes, won by Raising Sands – he was drawn the wrong side that day, but did ‘win’ his side from a 1lb higher mark. 14s or so looked a bit overpriced to me.
Blown By Wind – a riskier one at a bigger price but in the end I couldn’t get away from the fact he’s the only horse in the race with any sort of win in Heavy, if indeed it does get that testing. He’s a big old unit with a pounding knee action and i’m sure he could well be best on soft – although his overall profile would suggest he doesn’t care. One of his best efforts was last October at Musselburgh in soft, comfortably beating Montatham by 3l. That was off 93 but he’s only 2lb higher than when winning on seasonal return, in a solid enough race, beating Pogo that day. Some of his RPRs suggest 102 is in range. He is a bit of a monkey I think and has been a terror at the start/out of the stalls a few times. So, he is risky, but he’s a decent price and he has the form to compete, and he may well relish the ground. He also gets SDS for the first time and that’s rarely a bad thing, and maybe his more busy style will ensure he’s quicker away – although they may not go that quick, and it may not matter. In what did feel an open race, I was happy to chance him.
Wise Counsel – well possibly one last hurrah in a Flat handicap this season, we shall see, and maybe for a good long while from me, who knows, but i thought i’d throw one more from the trends list into the mix at a decent price. Danny T rides for his retained owner here and this one ran ok in The Ayr Gold Cup from high, and this isn’t as deep as that I don’t think. That race has also produced 6 winners of this. He will also appreciate the return to 7f and possibly the softening ground. In his seasonal return at Haydock he cruised around on heavy, before blowing up and his wins have been with cut in the ground. Maybe he wants a test. The draw is a niggle if a nearside track/going bias but at 22s i’ll roll the dice and he does have Jacks Point and Kynren to tow him into it. There is more to come from him in handicaps and the CP appear to have helped.
Of the rest…
Well, clearly Kynren or Raising Sands could take this, that wouldn’t be a shock. But they both have the odd question, in the context of their price, and I didn’t think they were overpriced. I did ponder wading into Kynren EW but that really isn’t my style and not in these races, so avoided doing that. No doubt he’ll hack up now! They both should go well but they’re no handicap spring chickens. River Nymph may well bolt up again – proper soft is a question and he’s 11lb higher than his last win – he does need to step forward again, which he may do, but I wasn’t confident enough to think 6s was value.
King Ottokar has been well backed through the day, and I can’t say I wanted to dive in at 7s for all that his mark of 100 may look ok in a handicap at some point. Still, whether 7f suits is anyone’s guess – maybe you’ll need to stay much further, but then they may not go that quick. He’s been gelded, has a visor and has questions, for all that LTO was eye-catching. He can beat me at 7s for all that Charlie does like an Ascot handicap winner.
Of the outsiders that looked interesting –
Well maybe Ropey Guest at 20s but he’s 0/12 on turf and made hard work of his win LTO. None of his career RPRs are above his current mark and while he has some solid efforts to his name in C1s, plenty of them have arguably been mediocre enough for the grade. He may well relish conditions though and could be drawn in the right place. Still, he hasn’t shown enough for me, I talked myself out of him.
Orbaan – he would probably be the most annoying of the double digits left alone given his place on the stats/trends shortlist – but he is always ridden so cold, even when Jamie isn’t on! Proper soft is also a question for him and in the end I think he will need to pass everything, and that’s put me off. He is a smooth traveller though, but whether he’s well handicapped is also open to debate. Although he’s lightly raced over here and for his age. I can see a big run from him but hopefully never quite getting there. O’Meara is in form but throws x3 darts at this, which can be read negatively, maybe. (that irony isn’t lost on me!) They remove the hood which is interesting and it may spark him up, which could be ok given this first try over 7f for connections. Again, questionable whether that will suit, I wasn’t sure.
If something else wins I probably wasn’t that close in truth, which would be annoying but no doubt a sign to sign off on the flat, with a whimper.
Greenside is now 9 and is 7lb higher than when beat in this last year, and his jockey claimed more. 70 days off also. Maybe the ability to handle conditions will count for plenty but not for me.
Shelir has a question over proper soft and I thought he needed more in a race like this, 6lb above his last win, with a question over C2 I think, for all that he has the odd decent run. 10s didn’t feel generous enough to my eyes.
Revich is interesting to a point but on his 20th handicap, on a career high handicap mark, 6lb above that win two starts ago – although that was his highest at that time, so he could still be open to progress. That race hasn’t worked out well though and he seemed held LTO, with a 5lb claimer on board. Soft should be fine. The yard are also a bit quiet.
Blue Mist has a ground question and form/mark after his effort LTO. Guessing a bit as to whether he will handle proper soft, around 10/11s. It remains to be seen whether those drawn lower will be marooned up the middle also, which I suppose is a risk for Blown By Wind but he’s more than double the price and is in the middle.
The other four can beat me, Young Fire is 0/5, 0p 91+, 0/5,0p C2, 1st run here. But is 2/8 on turf and conditions shouldn’t be a problem. This is a career high mark though, so that to prove. The other three have even more questions in conditions I think.
So, that’s that. Fingers crossed one of them can give me something to cheer.
Pace wise… well, you can see that in the video above! 🙂
Do post a comment with any fancies – you’ll get praised for winning picks/reasoning, with losers generally ignored! 🙂