Ascot Challenge Cup (video)

VIDEO…Feature Handicap Stats/Trends/Trainers + shortlists


Saturday: 3.05 Ascot 

The Challenge Cup

12/232, 45p


12/12 had been ridden at least once by today’s jockey (had not: 0/74, 9p)

12/12 had 1-3 handicap wins (0: 0/25, 6p; 4+ : 0/62, 11p)

12/12 top 8 LTO (9th or lower, 0/52, 3p)

11/12 sent off 16/1< SP (bigger, 1/100, 9p)

11/12 yet to run above Group 3 level in career (had: 1/68, 11p)

11/12 had won at C2 or Listed level (yet to win above C3, 1/45, 6p)

11/12 had 0-1 distance wins (2: 1/47, 8p; 3+ : 0/67, 9p)

10/12 were 1lb to 10lb max lower than highest rated in race (11lb+ lower, 2/75, 10p)

10/12 had placed at least once on last two starts (had not: 2/72, 11p)

10/12 had 0-1 runs over the Course & Distance (2+ : 2/94, 17p)


Track LTO

  • Ayr: 6/48, 12p
  • Newbury: 2/13, 4p
  • X1: Chester / Goodwood/ Newmarket (Rowley) / York
  • Ascot: 0/35, 8p
  • Doncaster: 0/23,3p


Trainers (last 12 renewals)

No multiple winners in the period… those with x1 win…

P Chapple Hyam / D Ivory / J Osborne / H Morrison/ E Johnson-Houghton/ J Gosden / M Bell/ K Ryan/ R Fahey / T D Barron/ A Balding


Applying The Stats

The 12/12 stats leave 12/86, 26p, and IF they hold up, leave a more manageable list of 6…

Kynren / River Nymph / Admirality / Orbaan / Wise Counsel / Jacks Point 

A positive is those to have won at C2 or Listed level… from that list… Kynren / Admirality / Orbaan 

Those with 0-1 win over the distance a positive… Admirality, Jacks Point, Orbaan 


Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Kynren
  • Raising Sand
  • Hey Jonesy
  • Gabrial The Wire



Video preview/walk through… only 26 minutes this time! 🙂 



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2 Responses

  1. just looking at the race. initially drawn to admirality with its nice low weight.
    doesnt look to be alot of upfront pace in the race

  2. Interesting notes for Ascot run types.
    The stats show that 75% of winners here hit the front between over 1f out and 100 yards out (the norm across all tracks is almost 49%) with just 12.5% succeeding later than that (compared to 18% which is the average across all tracks for very late pouncers). The most advantageous angle is finding a horse who has shown a tendency to take it up inside the first half of the final furlong (38% of winners over this C&D).
    Courtesy of russmith over at gg.
    DRAW/PACE bias looks like middle and hold up types.
    Now to find one that marries the above.

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