Members Daily Post: 02/10/20 (complete)

Quals , a challenge/poll

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(167 tips/19 wins/57 places (inc wins) /+26.1 points, advised/ +21.4 Betfair SP) 

None from me on Friday. 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None.

One from the ‘work in progress’ Jumps profiles report…

3.20 Font – Gettysburg Address (any) 10/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding

3.40 Ascot – Monsieur Lambrays 16/1

Newcastle Sires (20/1<)

5.50 – Al Aresh 11/1

7.00 – La Puntalina 40/1

Jim Crowley (any)

4.50 Ascot – Buhturi 12/1

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.05 Ascot- Blackheath (3rd run) 16/1

3.05 Ascot – Lord Oberon (1st) 12/1

3.40 Ascot – Rochester House (3rd) 15/2

8.00 Newc – Scots Sonnet (2nd) 3/1

 

6.Other/Updates

Ascot Challenge Cup stats, including my application/shortlists: READ HERE>>>

preview video will follow asap. 

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A bit of fun (I do read all the comments and the odd good idea! 🙂 ) .. and I should do some more fun engagement activity / wisdom of the crowd, maybe… so, a challenge for you all… a race from Ascot on Friday… the poll below will close at 11am, after which can see the results… no idea how many of you will ‘vote’ but interesting to see who comes out on top/result…

[poll id=”34″]

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. Hi everyone, read your tweet Josh on Oisin Murphy, ref substance abuse cocaine.

    This is nothing new in racing the great Fred Archer 1857 to 1886, had his own Archers Mixture to keep his weight down and it was commonly known as drugs at the time.

    In 2016 former jockey Frank told Rue 89 journalist Clement Guillou, if I drank bottles of vodka and took cocaine, I was not hungry and I urinated a lot, so I lost weight.

    There is always someone to supply the young apprentices who are starting out on a career in racing and they need to be at a ridiculous low weight, and sadly cocaine is a aid in this process, and they become dependent on the drug has their career progressess, and over the years natural weight as risen then more cases of cocaine abuse will surface.

    Frankie Dettori has been caught out more than once, over his career.

    Some time ago wrote about my 5 nights in Newmarket in the late 80s and had a chat with a retired police inspector who was head of Newmakets security at the time, he said the Rising Sun public house at the time must add was the main place for drugs!

    Colin

      1. Thanks for that Geoffrey, will try from time to time, old age setting in job remembering!!! only kidding
        Cheers
        Colin

    1. I’ve gone for cold front in the Ascot 4-50 but stone circle is worth a mention at a massive price on 2yo form.

    2. Great to hear from you colin 😉 .. trust all well with you 🙂 ..blog to see you …. to blog you nice ! 🙂
      I think I need to up my medicine !! 🙂
      keep enjoying life colin !!
      Look forward to your continued ramblings .. i am mean words of wisdom ( i really do 😉 )
      LGB
      (now looking for the nurse !! 🙂 )

      1. Like it Brucie,
        everything fine my end, spent time revamping Colins bets, and they are looking good again so looking forward to the AW.
        Will put Newcastle bets up on site, so they are bound to lose.
        Just stricking the pose! Brucie baby
        Cheers
        Colin

  2. yesterdays c3+ sole race hade the winner and the aw c4+ list had 2 wins and 2 places.
    todays c3+ video replay list
    ASCOT
    13-55 prejudice / wait forever
    14-30 berkshire rocco
    15-05 raaeq / heironymus / breanski
    15-40 rochester house / beholden
    16-15 tyson fury / golden rules
    16-50 pistoletto / society lion / cold front

    c4+ aw video replay list
    NEWCASTLE
    16-45 dreamweaver / sweet dime

    as always good luck with your selections 🙂

  3. My pick for Ascot would be Musicality. Won on soft 2 races ago, trainer and jockey in reasonable form and certainly worth a small each way bet

  4. Had a quick look at the 4:50 and liked the look of Musicality at 10/1, Yard/Jockey combo have a good record in Class 2s at Ascot with trip droppers, also acts on soft which it will be by this afternoon and gets a good draw. Last run looks too far and a line can be put through that.

    Good luck!

  5. Morning all,

    Josh, just an angle that has interested me for a while and one which was franked yesterday when Regarding Ruth won. Are there any stats available from any of your tools looking at horses declared as a non runner on the day of the race who subsequently run within the next 5 or 7 days? It might need some refining somehow but might be of interest?

    1. Hi Doug,

      Plenty of logic for such thinking for sure – esp horses with multiple entries, NR for self cert or going, and coming out couple days later – would suggest connections think in form/don’t want to waste a run on unsuitable ground, and/or may have decided a future race looks more winnable. In Racing Post has NR info, as does HRB when you look at a horse – and they also have a ‘shortlist’ daily report for horses running who were NRs in last week – Mr HRB, Chris, must have the data so i may ask him if possible to build into system building software somehow, although looking at trainer records would be small numbers I suspect, some owners may be interesting. But certainly a decent starting point.

      Josh

  6. Asc 4:50 Stone Circle – the rag of the field (66-1). Not had much exposure on soft, especially with very low handicap weight, further reduced by able young jockey who rides Ascot well. Trainer profitable over 5 years each way in handicaps. Draw decent. £1 each way is the gamble on suddenly improving for the softening ground. I imagine RTP people will cover the whole field….bit like a sweepstake.

    1. Great shout Mark…just a pity so many non runners…touched off Fresh and my selection still running …but 20’s on the exchange very good result….

    2. wd mark great reckoning .. between us we had the f/c & tricast .. and anything else offered by the kind bookies
      keep up da good work
      lgb

  7. A couple at Newcastle this evening.

    Results to date; 1/4 2p (+4.6)

    17:50 – 1pt e/w Algaffaal 7/1: Down in class, trip, below last winning mark. Decent draw too.

    18:25 – 1pt e/w Wham Bam 22/1: More speculative pick in a Novice race. Dascombe doesn’t send many novices to Newcastle – 5 since start of 2018, with 3 winners and a 2nd. Rolling the dice with this one.

  8. 4.50 ASCOT
    Nothing produced from the LGB Bbakery recipes I am afraid 🙁
    Just to add though ……..
    FRESH = Jockey in form
    ADDITIONAL = Jockey in Form
    ROVANIEMI = Trainer in form

    As you know i am quickly cleaning the ovens once again ( thanks josh 😉 ) For a Monday “fresh” start up !!
    Good luck one n all
    LGB 🙂

    1. 16.50 A exellent our george …… 2nd 3rd and a non runner .. if you could get a winner every nowq and again that would be lovely .

  9. 16.50 Ascot. selection Many a Star e/w currently 12/1.

    Did like Rovaniemi but a non runner. Others I like are Cold Front, Fresh, Additional….Reasons are the speed of the selection having run in a C4 over 6f in 68.39 secs. Has to step up 2 classes and has to improve on last time out now in a C2 and a previous run in C3 at York but the last run was in fast than course time by .39 seconds over 6f so hoping that is a signal that the step up in class is possible and at 12/ is worth the risk. Cold Front is around the 70.32/12/02 mark and has a good chance but I do not like short prices . Fresh is 70.42 secs so matched with Cold Front but is better value at 15/2 so a small e/ w on Freh may be the way to go against my selection…….The interesting runner is Additional and clocked 68.04 secs in a C5 Novice race but in a listed race at York LTO clocked an adjusted figure for 6f 74.92 so appears to be regressing not progressing so not sure what to make of the horse, given that Martyn Meade is 3/12 25% plus £12 levels with 3yo here…strange one !!!…..at 18/1 may be worth a small e/w….gd lck with whatever you decide.

    1. Well what a great idea that poll was! Some great opinions and I did back the rag of the field on the strength of them! Superb work team RTP

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