Members Daily Post: 01/10/20 (complete)

Quals, update/the future

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(167 tips/19 wins/57 places (inc wins) /+26.1 points, advised/ +21.4 Betfair SP) 

None from me on Thursday. 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.05 Salis – Kick On Kick On (9/1<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Trainers

2.15 Fairy – Vocal Gymnastics (25/1<) 40/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

Jim Crowley (any)

12.20 Salis – Mohaafeth 2/1  -1

12.50 Salis – Moktasaab 4/5 -1

1.20 Salis – Ensyaaby 5/2 -1

1.55 Salis – Zuhair 25/1

3.05 Salis – With Respect 14/1 UP -1

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

Emma Lavelle (14/1<)

(1/5, 3p, +0.5)

1.45 Warw – Viva Vittoria 9/1 UP 20/1, -1 (drift told story there as to fitness, and he has needed it last two seasons)

NTD

(1/13, 4p, -7.5)

2.08 FL – Another Frontier (8/1<) 6/1 UP 12/1 -1

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.05 Salis – Whelans Way (3rd run) H4 5/1 UP

 

6.Other/Updates

THE FUTURE: Please read…

Some musings as to the future of this place, including some  big changes/improvements…

The immediate future, content wise, flat vs jumps, as of Friday 9th October, Chepstow’s first meeting of the new season, I plan to ‘switch off’ all the daily flat stats content and switch over to the jumps. So, what’s currently Section 2, 3 and probably 5. I’ll likely still have some focus on any of the big Flat C2 handicaps that remain, inc anything on Champions day etc. I just don’t want loads of flat / jumps content running side by side – and bar big races, my head is turning ever increasingly towards the jumps. And this blog/my future here is going to depend on what happens this Jumps season/when subscriptions return…

Jumps stats content... i’m working on a ‘Jumps Profiles’ report with a few trainers, 10-15, one angle per trainer, no odds caps. And I may look at 3-5 jockeys also, with the intention of posting qualifiers for all to use as you please, with the hope they may work ‘systematically’ and pull in 30-60 points over a season.  I’ll be trying a ‘less is more’ approach with those, 1-3 qualifiers on average per day would be ideal. They’ll be in place for Chepstow. With that said, as a ‘bonus’ (or maybe not) there’s a couple out tomorrow, that i’ve researched/saved already… we shall see how they go…

 

  • 2.20 Warw – Court Master 5/2 WON
  • 5.35 FL – Noctre Volatus 11/2

 

The ‘monthly’ jumps trainers will remain and in terms of other ‘stats content’ there’ll be the trends pointers etc for a big weekend handicap or two, with a preview video. I want to do more videos, including reviews of the weekends big races, any stats/research ideas, and try to add some more ‘informative’ or ‘pondering’ type content through a week/month. Including approaches you could take to the content as a ‘way in’.  There may be the occasional ‘daily’ stats or pace snippet, if something jumps out of interest. I want to avoid adding to the ‘static’ stats content through a season, such as ‘other angles’ etc whereby they’re too many horses listed and it’s hard to know where to look. I’d like to think there’s been a bit more going on through the week in the last couple of weeks, and that’s because i’ve basically stopped staring at horses for tipping purposes  day to day…

Tipping… (some changes) 

I don’t think everything mentioned above so far is a viable ‘product’ as such, by itself. The reality is that in my view any ‘non tools based’  ‘service’ does require a successful tipping element long term. To do what I want to above,  to provide the sort of engaging daily/weekly content that I think i’m better at than most (esp videos, fostering the community, big meetings/races long term etc), that can’t be me. Actually as I look back I’m best in big jumps races/festivals, and while always a bumpy ride, that’s where i’ll be focusing – but by making sure the ‘process’ is useful for you, even if my own conclusions are off – hence the trends/stats/preview videos etc. For  my sins i’ve always enjoyed the big races (esp chases) most, and of course there’s the big Spring Festivals. Around 250 or so have been watching the recent videos, indicating there’s some appetite for that sort of thing.

When assessing my strengths, weaknesses and where i’d like this blog/my business to be, I can’t be the daily tipster in these parts. In part I’m not good enough at the moment with the day to day racing, if I ever was. Part of that is linked to doing all of the above, as i’ve never wanted to just be a ‘tipping’ service. ‘Just’ following tips only gets you so far in this game emotionally. But regular tipping takes dedication/time etc. And given everything else, at times i’ve simply burnt out. However, the long term business depends on some sort of profitable daily element, 1-2 tips a day on average…

It feels like a ‘sh*t or bust’ winter ahead for RTP, esp as a business – rather than some occasional free blog i’d do in addition to a proper job! 🙂

So, as an experiment the plan is to expand ‘team RTP’ for the winter season (which is just me at the moment) and get some expert help during the National Hunt season. I can’t announce who just yet, but i’m excited at what he will bring to the table and i’m fairly bullish if I get it right, it will be the best winter jumps service around- combing that unique blend of ‘opinion’ form X and I, along with the stats, trends, chat, videos, ‘starting points’ etc that you can use anyway you please. And the community, or RTP family as Warren puts it. An enjoyable racing ‘experience’, with any luck. And when some normality returns, maybe some social ‘RTP club days’.

Whether this works , is successful or popular, time will tell. It does feel like one last hurrah this winter for my current business model. One last chance for me to get it right so the blog is still here this time next year.  So, I’d best suck up my pride, realise I can’t do everything I want, to the level required, and get some support.

As I type the site is being redesigned and I hope a ‘winter season ticket‘ offer, with the new site, will be in place for 1st November. I haven’t decided on prices but there will be a ‘£1 for 28 day’ lead in offer I suspect, with a 30 day money back guarantee after any payment, on request. In effect 58 days for £1 to see if what i’m busy creating adds to your enjoyment/profitability of the winter game, or not.

Something needs to change, and we shall see if this does the trick. Content wise it will be the best winter there’s been on here- whether it works is another matter! 🙂

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. well i’m in.

    firstly acknowledging where your strengths and weaknesses are is a major key to success in life. i think what you do and try to achieve in your stats based approached is sound and has always been. it has changed over time. ive dipped in and out over the past few years on here and have noticed each time the changes. what attracted me initially was the stat based approach and i would imagine there are quite a few members who have come here for that reason.
    i personally think having someone else onboard will probably be the best decision you ever make regarding the blog and RTP in general. you cant do everything and if you try the core of what you do will suffer and diminish.
    having someone to deal with the other stuff whatever you decide to add.
    ive never seen it as a tipping website and i dont visit the website daily for tips. personally i see it as a kind of club where we all get together to battle the forces of darkness (the bookmaker) whether its for a living or just for fun we all have different reasons. for me its the engagement with other members.
    i think the harcore members on here will stay whatever the direction you decide to take it in but thats not going gonna keep you in buisness or this website alive on its own. you will need fresh members and you’ll need to keep them after an initial trial period.
    as you dont want and quite rightly so to be known as a tipping website there has to be perceived value as to whats on offer to the price thats being asked and engagement is the key. getting new or silent members typing , commenting, ticking boxes, adding to a poll any thing that gets response and more importantly getting someone else to do for you. keeping them here for long enough to understand the basis of what you do because can seem to the to the uninitiated looking at stats and angles quite daunting and can and will turn some people off. it was for me at first. you have to keep people occupied long enough on rtp until the penny drops and the core what you do becomes the focus then you then have a long term member. The club becomes bigger than the sum of its parts and no matter how small how big how silly or how serious the things you add are they all add to the experience.
    i may be talking a load of nonsense but i like it here and i like being part of the community.

    🙂

    1. Thanks Warren,

      The reality, in my mind at least, is that unless you’re a tools based serviec (HRB/Geegeez) I think you need a regular, and successful long term tipping element – 1-2 a day on average. And i’m just not good enough for that, esp with how i’ve set things up – which is deliberate – but to be good at daily tipping i think you need to be immersed much more than I am – which is in part down to the content I want to produce/time – cutting corners clearly doesn’t work. There are better options on that front. Cutting out any ‘tipping’ makes the rest of it a rather harder sell, and some of it hasn’t been that good at times.

      And in theory it means I can focus on the bits I enjoy/am better at, and improve them – and ‘tipping’ wise, or at least ‘analysis’ wise, focus on those C2/G3 chasers/races, and see how that goes. While trying to make the stats side better, and have more daily snippets to muse over, and more videos, previews/reviews, HRB stuff and engagement/community which I know can be one of the best bits around here.

      With any luck a truly ‘all round’ jumps offering, readers can pick and choose the bits they want – the majority want successful tips long term, and not too bumpy along the way!!

      We shall see if it works out or not but it’s worth trying for a season. It’s an investment, but that’s the game.
      Josh

  2. I , for one, Josh wish you all the best ! 😉
    you have have improved my betting enjoyment and profitably no end .. and i will always appreciatye that 🙂

    Like you i have recently had to take “stock” of my financial life . My logistics business has been floundering for some time and is about to sink 🙁 . So i have explained and gained her acceptance to start as of 01.10.20 to up my game on my new venture T.O.S.I. (Turf Or Sand) Investing 🙂 .

    So i thought i would try and improve my betting bank yesterday ready for the off !!! …….. and yep ….. my worse day for some years.. the red mist descended …… everything came 2nd scenario (some even spotted out the back of my computer 😉 ) ……. we all have these days .. some are easier to handle than others … and after a few days of “high” this seemed to be a very large “low!” 🙁 .
    Like you say Josh ..I don’t have many options left on the money earning front .. so “SH1T” for me as well this aw/jumps season .
    Its a lonely occupation sometimes .. but it’s sites like this that sometimes makes it feel not so solitary .

    Keep up the good work .. i wouldn’t be here without you .. and nor would many others .. if they admitted the truth to themselves 😉

    That’s enough “down n out” stuff ………………. back to my HRB and beyond !!!!!!!!!!!

    Thanks
    LGB 🙂
    always smiling 🙂

    1. Thanks GB

      Ah sorry to hear that.

      A brave move and exciting move though, I wish you well with it – pro punting is a different ball game, esp mentally, and maybe even more so if a systems based approach. I’m not sure i’d be cut out for it and need to make sure it doesn’t drain any enjoyment out of the sport. Slow and steady for me 🙂
      Good luck
      Josh

    2. All the best LGB, sincerely hope things work out…if ever you want me to give figures for a particular race just let me know I’ll do my best to provide them if you think that would be useful…Josh is right regarding the mind set you need to punt professionally, not sure I have that resilience to take that plunge….very best of luck to you..

      1. thanks guys … start time has halted already .. thanks to josh and a few light bulb moments on the hrb tuition the other day .. i am revamping my systems .. hopefully reducing them considerably and keeping the highest percentage/profit ones .. and i have a few 😉
        yep times are are a changing for lgb ……. gotta steady the ship !! 🙂

        all the best .. “Together is Stronger ………….. I think ?? …lol 🙂
        just looked at my qualifiers for today and out of the first 4 i have a missed a 16/1 winner and 5/1 .. dohh !!!
        still better to be starting off on an even keel !! 🙂
        laters
        good luck n thanks one n all 🙂
        LGB

        1. Sorry to hear about you’re business GB but hopefully it will work out as an opportunity to become the top punter you already are in truth.
          Really looking forward to following your successful journey.

          1. Why thanks Mr Leif collins .. long time no squeak from your goodself ! ??? I expect you are waiting for the long dark nights in the sand ?? lol 🙂
            Don’t worry about my finances …….MC has offered to bankroll me .. so all is well in the LGB camp 😉 .. that is right isn’t mc 😉 ??? i am now busily turning my 40% systems into 60/70 % systems now …. it’s like magic all of a sudden !!! (thx again josh 😉 )
            OK
            over n out & thanks
            lgb

  3. yesterdays c3+ list had 1 winner and 4 places and the c4+ list had 1 winner and 1 place.
    todays sole c3+video replay race
    SALISBURY
    14:40 apollo one

    aw c4+ video replay list
    CHELMSFORD
    16:25 looktotherainbow / jacinth / glenartney
    17:25 reams of love / symbolic power / war thunder
    18:30 al dawodiya / jack the truth / drakefell
    19:00 daafr / khaalis / old news
    my picks
    WAR THUNDER 12/1 got into a spot of bother on his first run but finished well. has the benefit of running to near this distance today and looked to be staying on. its 2f further for everything else today to tackle. there is potentially some good animals here today but a few have questions as to whether they we stay. war thunder definitely will. also has the benefit of being one of only two tried on this surface so far. 12/1 looks good value.

    over in ireland
    4:35 caldwell
    5:10 taramansour
    5:40 alaiya

    as always good luck. 🙂

  4. Mmmmmm…lots to ponder there Josh and really hope your current plans are a success this coming winter over the jumps so that gives you a sound financial base upon which to build for the future….will the flat feature in your plans next year or is this too soon for you to be thinking about just now? Assume the AW this season is also not to feature, which given your preference for the jumps and what you think is best going forward, is also the right decision, so fingers crossed for you as you deserve every success for all the hard work in keeping things going over the past years…

    1. Hi John…

      Thanks. I mean it’s not that much of a drastic change to daily output – just a big enhancement hopefully on the daily tipping front, and with an expert twice monthly newsletter.

      That gives me something to hang everything else around – daily tipping/analysis takes more time/dedication than i’m willing to put to it, given everything else I do – and i’m not sure I like doing it to that extent anyway – but this way I can research more, record more videos, trying and take us all more on a public journey of discovery, and offer more day to day for the puzzle solvers to ponder/engage with etc.
      They’ll be some ‘static’ stats stuff – jumps profiles, monthly trainers – and this will allow me more time in the back end of the week to focus on Saturday’s racing, in a way that hopefully is enjoyable/informative- plus the big spring festivals.

      I’ve never done much on the all-weather on here anyway – it doesn’t really interest me – BUT I should have time for the odd stats piece of interest, but there won’t be any daily AW content from me on that front. That sort of thing has mainly lived in the comments anyway from you good folk.

      Next summer – while my heart has always been in the jumps, I do enjoy aspects of the flat – I mean i’ve just the guy to bring into the fold for tipping purposes, if I choose to go down that route. I could dream of being so good in the winter months I could take the summer off!! – And focus on the business, growth, affiliate income from quality products etc – and not so much daily blogging – that has crossed my mind – but that idea is a couple of years away – i think with a daily flat handicap tipster, and what I can bring, there’s enough there for a product – OR more of the summer should just be ‘free to air’ etc.
      For now, i’ve got to get the next 6/7 months right, as that is the yearly foundation on what everything should be built- and if that doesn’t work i’ll need to ponder again!

      Josh

  5. Well i’m in whatever Josh as i’ve said before i treat any subs like a club membership, for the amount of diverse information from you and all the other members it’s a no brainer really. Also a place i can put down my mad ramblings, but in future you can expect some more serious stuff from me .

  6. I agree with everyone, I’m in deffo. The future plans sound really interesting but we do need members who post re the AW as well as NH over winter. So looking forward to GB, Warren, Silver and others pontificating on the sand, I’ll be throwing my hat into the ring too

  7. Today i’ve had a good look at the 3-05 at Salisbury and a browse through for anything else that might be a bit of value.
    Salis 3-05. Sweet Pursuit 22-1 4p, I’ll start withe negative has never won above C5 to date but gets in this C4 off a nice mark of 70, her record over 6f in good/ gd-sft is pretty good winning 3 and placing 14/27. A hold up horse and with no out and out front runner this could be a muddling type of race and she does have a fair turn of foot up the finish,Eye Of The Water (2) and A Sure Welcome (3) could vie for the lead and SP (5) can slot in behind and hopefully finish well.
    Warwick
    1-45. Misty Bloom 12-1
    2-55 Sid Hoodie 18-1
    Ffos Las
    2-08. Ring Minella 28-1
    are my other 3 for an ew L15

  8. quite like the look of SILVER CLIFFS 15/2 in the 3:40 at salisbury consistent most of the season and has dropped a little in the ratings and the trainer is at the track today so ive just heard on the tv. nearly 5hr round trip.
    bit of loose change i think on this one

    1. moore has just won with CHAMPAGNE PIAFF in the 13:55. hoping that was not the he came to see lol. 🙂

  9. Just to add for what it’s worth I think you’re doing the right thing. I’m a big believer in knowing your strengths and weaknesses and if a tipster allows you to focus on your strengths and the things you enjoy more then that can only be a good thing.
    Personally for me the strength of this place lies in the community and the diversity within that. I still think that’s an aspect you can extract more from and possibly with a bit of a fun element to it. Maybe something like a poll of members to pick the horse they fancy to win or place in certain races that you pick daily?

    1. Hi Leif,

      yes you’re probably right on the fun element, and that’s a good idea that I should do more… and with that said, i’ve added a poll in tomorrow’s post! You’ve got to vote now haha,
      As ever it’s getting into the routine of doing the popular/good stuff,
      Josh

  10. Well there’s a gap in the market now STOD has gone.
    So I’m looking for a new tipster to invest my money in.

    1. Well I suppose there is. I can understand why Matts made that decision for longer term etc. Tricky one. Im pretty confident that if I can get this right it will be the best non tools based service around. But that’s for me to prove. I’m excited about the new signing and what he will bring to the table. And in any case everyone will have in effect 58 days to try for £1 so plenty of time to judge whether for you etc.
      With a clearer head through the week I hope I can get my jumps feature handicaps tipping/previews back up to standard. I need to use past glories as inspiration rather than as a historical comfort blanket!
      Josh

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