Members Daily Post: 30/09/20 (complete)

Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(167 tips/19 wins/57 places (inc wins) /+26.1 points, advised/ +21.4 Betfair SP) 

None on Wed, a decent looking card at Notts, numbers wise – but the weather is putting me off getting stuck in- potential heavy rain forecast from lunchtime so anyone’s guess if it arrives, how much and what the ground could be come mid afternoon. I’ll leave it for tipping purposes and spend my  time deep in winter jumps stats.

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.30 Notts – Make It Rain (12/1< guide) H1  9/4 2nd 

3.30 Notts – Global Hero (10/1< guide) 7/1 UP

4.05 Notts – Shoot To Kill (8/1<) 7/2 UP

4.40 Notts – Young Merlin (any) H4 5/1  UP

4.40 Notts – Monjeni (9/1<) H3 18/1 ‘DNQ’ (ignore for ‘H’ purposes) UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

7.30 Kempton – Greek Oasis H4 10/1 

Kevin Stott (16/1< )

2.55 Notts – Rock On Baileys H4 20/1 ‘DNQ’ (ignore for ‘H’ purposes)  UP

4.05 Notts – Nibras Again 18/1 ‘DNQ’ 3rd

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

NTD

(1/12, 4p, -6.5)

2.45 Bang – Guard Your Dreams (20/1<) 11/2 WON 11/2 

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

4.40 Notts – Monjeni (3rd run) H3 18/1  UP

8.00 Kemp – Swiss Pride (1st run) H1 13/2 

 

6.Other/Updates

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Hi Josh…Just watched your “blinkers” video…very good info…was not a consideration for me either as just focused on the speed figures I do and obviously GB’s great stat analysis…will not ignore that aspect either after watching your tour round HRB…great stuff, thanks for posting

  2. yesterdays sole c3+ had the winner. the aw c4+ had 1 winner 1 placw out of the 3 races
    my pick finished last as price suggested.
    todays c3+ video replay list
    NOTTINGHAM
    14:20 mishal star / mashmoom / muay thai
    14:55 rock on baileys / bimble / george bowen / punchbowl flyer
    15:30 rosa gold / make it rain / he’s a keeper

    aw c4+ video replay list
    KEMPTON
    18:30 the gill brothers / spirit warning / intrepidly
    19:00 iffraaz / summit reach / master of the stars
    my picks.
    SPIRIT WARNING 16/1 can take advantage of slipping mark today. last time out was either a step to far or conditions didnt suit. importantly has experience here and has won at 1m in the past at this track 6lb below last winning mark.

    kempton 8:00
    in the red 9/2
    sonnet rose 28/1
    both the above are from a 7f trainer specific angle ive been looking at kempton (early days on these)

    as always good luck today 🙂

    1. Not really, the main point is not to ignore other aspects of analysis, in this instance use of blinkers in C2 hdcps.
      There are so many ways to approach the analysis of a race to find winners and the whole thrust of the argument is not to ignore or dismiss anything and in order to to that we have to clear our minds of any preconceptions that will prevent us from looking at race with a completely open mind…in this instance the use of first time blinkers in C2 hdcps is demonstrated to be a case in point in this analysis as Josh, in using Horse Race Base system builder proves the point.

      Besides being a useful walk through of the HRB analysis process it is a a really good reminder that we are all blinkered, deliberate pun, when it comes to looking at what, we personally bring to the process by our own preconceived ideas and opinions, which prevent us from seeing things as they are, rather than what we imagine or would like them to be they will be.

      That point alone is the crux of the matter I believe and hope am not blinkered in this conclusion!! Hope that helps Anonymous.

        1. No probs…just hope the analysis right…gone for a fourth place on Harworth myself with main bet on my selection …fingers crossed.. all the best

  3. 2.55 Notts – Rock On Baileys H4 20/1 i’m ignoring the ‘DNQ’ and it’s probably my only bet today £5 ew 18-1 5p sky.

      1. ha, well those with a H are worth ignoring the odds caps and he was backed into ‘qualifying’ range against the research – she finds it tough on the flat, 1/21 or so, headgear for a reason I think, I thought shed run a bit better than that mind, Kevin seemed to come away from the action up the middle. Odd.

      2. If it’s of any consolation I was of the same opinion and though had a great chance today it’s what I backed in the race. Even more annoying I backed mokaatil last time out and totally dismissed it today…..

  4. Nottingham 13.15 selection Prospect e/w. 1/2 pt

    Rare foray into Nottingham as I find this track extremely difficult to get a handle on…. price is ok and comes out best on my figures but given the nature of 2 yo races where a horse can progress dramatically from one race to the next only small stakes advised. Others to note are Jacattack and Harworth….the latter is value at 12/1 to hit the frame, especially if you can get enhanced places, though would not be surprised if the Gosden horse, Willabell wins..gd lck if deciding to play

    1. That was annoying to be beat by a rag which had 4 seconds to make up on my selection…. and Harworth very disappointing….Nottingham again proves problematical for me so not worth betting there in my opinion…Hey Ho on we go!

  5. another excellent HRB tutorial for me there josh .. thanks 😉 …. wondered what was so different about the “breakdown” button … lol …… I must have waisted half my hrb life writing down different qualifiers ..and all i had to do to compare was press the “breakdown” button .. my … my ……… look listen and learn LGB !!
    Will now go back through my 300 systems with the ” breakdown ” button …… lol 😉 …. thats’s me all over every manual .. i just read page 1 and then get on with it !!! ……..
    thanks
    LGB
    (always learning new tricks )

    1. No problem Mr B, that’s what i’m here for, sort of! 🙂

      Oh, you haven’t?? ah … there’s also the ‘DIG’ button to the right, where when you’ve a starter set of data/systems – you can then ‘dig’ and compare two new factors…

      So, if you said 1st time blinkers in flat handicaps was your starter ‘system’ / data… you could then dig by whatever you wanted… so, let’s say, ‘trainer’ and ‘jockey’ and that would fire out Trainer/jockey combos who do well in that example etc. Much to play around with in there.

      Josh

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