Members Daily Post: 25/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(164 tips/19 wins/56 places (inc wins) /+29.1 points, advised/ +24.4 Betfair SP) 

None on Friday. Unlike on Thursday I haven’t looked through the below as I want to focus on Saturday previews, inc trying to pull together an informative ‘ITV through the card’. For the next few weeks until jumps get rolling proper, I suspect my main ‘tipping’ focus will be on any ‘feature handicaps’, as i’ve plenty of winter jumps research to do, while working on some big enhancements to the blog/content for this winter jumps season. But more news on that as and when confirmed. 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.15 Hayd – Central City (9/1<) H4 15/2

4.45 Newm – Alqifaar (any, 9/2< best) 5/1

4.45 Newm – Make It Rain (12/1< guide) H1

4.45 Newm – Sarvan (8/1<) 13/2

4.45 Newm – Piece Of History (10/1<)  H3 7/1

5.35 Hayd – Sea Trout Reach (10/1< guide) 4/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding 

2.25 Newm- Franconia 9/2

Newcastle Sires 

5.20 – St Annes (20/1<) 66/1 ‘DNQ’

Kevin Stott (16/1<)

7.00 Newc – Castle Quarter 11/2

7.30 Newc – The Bull 8/1

8.00 Newc – Quick Monet 50/1 @DNQ’

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

Emma Lavelle

4.20 Uttox – Tierra Verde (14/1<) 14/1

NTD

(0/9, 3p, -9)

1.30 Uttox – Bombers Moon (8/1<) 22/1 ‘DNQ’

2.00 Uttox – Whiskey Moon (8/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’

3.10 Uttox – Ballyhill (8/1<) 11/1 ‘DNQ’

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Twisters are a bit ‘meh’ at the moment, plenty looking like they’ll come on for the run, but also many a bit one paced- not sure if simply not running over far enough and/or they’re behind where they usually are and/or there’s something up with the string generally, dulling their efforts. Something to keep an eye on anyway.

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5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

4.45 Newm – Breath Caught (1st run) H2

 

6.Other/Updates

Saturday’s Big Handicap Stats/Trends/Pointers

The Cambridgeshire HandicapREAD HERE>>>

Applying the stats…

I’m not sure this is the strongest trends race, and while only ever a guide, there’s not many ‘stats’ to be put off a selection if you like the price etc. Some of the stats I highlighted above I don’t like too much, logically at least! But a profile of… age 3-6, 3-8 runs this season, 2-6 career wins, 8th or lower in the weights, ran in a handicap LTO… leaves 11/12 winners, 11/161 runners, 32 places (out of 48 total). That leaves 10…

Derevo / Illaraab H4 / Lucander / King Carney / Good Birthday / Dubai Mirage / Balgair/ Bear Force One / Anythingtoday / Kryptos 

Of those to have carried 9st + LTO (not 100% sure on the logic for this stat) but…

Dervo / King Carney / Dubai Mirage / Balgair / Anything Today/ Bear Force One/ Kryptos 

Those from original 10 above yet to run beyond 10.5f in career…

Ilaraab / Lucander / Dubai Mirage / Balgair / Bear Force One /  Kryptos 

Running 6-10 days ago has been a neg, and three from the ten are doing that… Ilaraab / Good Birthday/ Balgair

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Trainers (to have won race 12 years/with runners)

  • Al Rufaa
  • Power Of Darkness

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I’ll be back by Friday lunch with a video ‘preview’, to hopefully help with your own deliberations. 450 odd of you watched last week’s one, or some of it. I’ll try desperately hard to keep it within 25 mins this time!

My own working shortlist, prior to the stats work above, for what its worth (and some more work to do) is… Tempus / Derevo/ King Carney / Lucander / Dubai Mirage / Al Rufaa 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Great!

    My short list was Dubai Mirage, King Carney, Bear Force One, Kryptos

    Fifth Position, Bell Rock, Anythingtoday others that catch my eye

    Rick 24/09/20 8:28 PM Reply


  • No joy on Wednesday, 0/2, both disappointing efforts.

    Two for Friday at Newmarket:

    1.50, Bounce The Blues – good form in Ireland and now showing the same in Britain. Trainer in decent form, won in this class, good draw. 2 points win.
    3.35, Kameko – course and distance winner, back at his best distance, trainer in decent form, draw OK. Can track Benbatl and come with a run. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 24/09/20 8:54 PM Reply


    • wd mc very professional advice once again
      lgb

      GEORGE B 25/09/20 3:43 PM Reply


    • Good shout with kameko Martin had a few quid on 🙂

      Warren Bottomley 25/09/20 3:47 PM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ list had 4 winners and 7 places the c4+ aw list had just 1 place from the 2 races
    my pick scottish summit did the buisness at 8/1 very nicely
    todays c3+ video replay list
    NEWMARKET
    13:50 bounce the blues / arriviste / bizzi lizzi / fooraat
    14:25 alpinista / katara
    15:00 monday / isabella giles
    15:35 kameko / benbatl / tilsit
    16:10 aloe vera / loxley
    16:45 make it rain / alqifaar / mosakar
    HAYDOCK
    16:00 fiffaa wonder / nastase
    16:35 boss power / dancing harry / prince alex
    17:35 sagauteur / hesselwood / the rain king

    c4+ aw video replay lisy
    NEWCASTLE
    18:30 daafr / wild hero / rousayan

    my picks
    ARRIVISTE 14/1 by the same owner as alpinista which also runs on the card and has done very well for herself and me landing her at a decent price. arriviste seems to be following a similar pattern by racing over in france which she has some decent form on the face of it. looking to get black type exactly as the did with alpinista. hopefully this pattern the owner follows will pay dividends today.

    THE RAIN KING 28/1 E/W ex irish donnacha o’brien/michael tabor horse who didnt find 1m2f to his liking last time out in dundalk but won very nicely the time before at galway over 8.5f. first run over here but on the galway race could well sneak a place or better. 28/1 seems generous.

    as always good luck 🙂

    warren bottomley 24/09/20 11:59 PM Reply


    • forgot to say thanks yesterday had a couple of quid on Scottish Summit

      martin whittle 25/09/20 1:55 AM Reply


      • Makes a change one of mine winning lol.
        Always nice to hear someone other than me benefited from it. I think George make have had some loose change on it too. 🙂

        Warren Bottomley 25/09/20 11:32 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    I`m not really putting these up as selections as I think the price has gone on one of them, but, did take a look at the 4:25 at LISTOWEL, the front running pair of BALLYEGAN HERO and TREACYSENNISCORTHY are / were value at 7/1 and 11/2 (365) respectively , BH has been really unlucky and has always met one that may be better than him, but, my personal belief is that he has been crying out for this longer distance over the bigger obstacles, the majority of his decent runs have either been over 2m 4f and on a softer surface, so the prevailing going and distance will not phase him. TRENNISCTHY is going down the gears, think he needs the softer surface, returns to the scene of his 50/1 shock win and that hurdle run lto was just to give him a cobweb blow off, will be out the front and as we know from the other day, if your not up with the pace here, you have to be an exceptional horse to win here!!
    Just my personal feeling on headgear as an aside, to be fair I use it as a positive and negative, wind ops are the same, would like to know everyone else`s feelings on them? I think first time they seem to work, but, would be put off a horse that has tongue tie, hood, nose band all on the race card, they must be right monkeys if they need all that and i immediately score the card through if i see a combination of 2 or more of the headgear gang…I have been loving horse racing for years and only occasionally does a horse come along that can have a combination of two or more “aids!” and be a supreme champion. Tiger Roll is probably one i can think of within recent years.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    Stewart 25/09/20 8:24 AM Reply


    • Well, that was pump… TECTHY don`t know what the thinking there was, left him too much to do jumping over last….and BH, puzzling, sometimes you just scratch your head at races like that… If its a front runner, let it front run?

      Stewart 25/09/20 4:35 PM Reply


  • The Cambridgeshire…

    All sorts in this post here… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/09/25/cambridgeshire/

    Video preview, (to help you solve the puzzle hopefully!) horse by horse musings etc.

    Josh 25/09/20 12:38 PM Reply


  • Long time member/follower of selections but first time contributor – starting my journey by focusing on my local track, Newcastle.

    3 selections today all 1pt E/W – 4 places available for all.

    19:00 – Caballero – down in trip and class. Rodriguez has 20% S/R for Dalgliesh at Newcastle
    19:30 – Rockley Point – Only C&D winner in the field, back down to last winning mark
    20:30 – Lucky Lodge – A Brittain has 2 in the field, inc. LTO winner Another Angel – Harry Russels 7lb claim switch from Another Angel to Lucky Lodge. A Brittain also seems to do ok with horses that have a quick turnaround – Lucky Lodge was 2nd beaten less than a length at Wolverhampton on Saturday.

    My money is on but wouldn’t recommend following me in just yet – I have no track record – as I say just starting out with my own selections.

    Steven M 25/09/20 12:56 PM Reply


    • Thanks for posting Steven, and with brief reasoning etc. Best of luck, as always.
      Josh

      Josh 25/09/20 1:11 PM Reply


    • There you go Steven, the lucky last! You’d take that every 3 bets in truth. Well done. Onwards.

      Josh 25/09/20 8:37 PM Reply


    • nice shout with Lucky Lodge had a nibble @ 11.0

      martin whittle 25/09/20 8:37 PM Reply


    • Yep wd steve …. nice start 😉

      GEORGE B 25/09/20 10:22 PM Reply


    • Yep wd steve …. nice start 😉

      GEORGE B 25/09/20 10:22 PM Reply


  • Good luck Steven, takes nerve to first put your head above the parapet!

    Mark Curtis 25/09/20 6:40 PM Reply


  • Good start!

    Mark Curtis 25/09/20 8:38 PM Reply


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