Daily Members Post: 23/09/20 (error/Upd3)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(164 tips/19 wins/56 places (inc wins) /+29.1 points, advised/ +24.4 Betfair SP) 

None on the Flat today – some rain around, esp Redcar, so anyone’s guess what that may be come race time. Instead some jumps and a trip to Ireland…

The Jumps 2020

4.30 Listowel 

#1 – Spyglass Hill – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365) 7/1 (gen) UP -1, both taken out by a faller, race over, but while jockeys hadn’t made move, they both didn’t appear to be in comfort zone and had plenty to do. Maybe it wasn’t soft enough, but all credit to the winner, brave.

#2 – Cap York – 1 point win – 22/1 (SkyB/BV) 20/1 (gen) UP -1

as of 09.55, preview at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.15 Red – Kendred Soul (9/1<) 33/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

1.50 Good- Dawaam (any) 3/1 UP

3.30 Good – Vindolanda H2 7/4 UP

Kevin Stott (16/1<)

1.35 Red – Infant Hercules H4 9/1 UP

4.20 Red – Cock A Hoop 28/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

NTD!

Apols, I’ve saved one of the angles incorrectly, micro 2, failing to remove the ‘years’ rule (which was up to 2019) and/or failing to add in ‘2020’, so they were not flagged – missed one loser so far, but for micro 2 there’s x4… (8/1< SP) prices as of 8am for ‘qualifying’ purposes…

3.40 P- Townshend 10/1 ‘DNQ’  UP

4.50 P – Florrie Boy  8/1 UP (4th)

5.20 Clondaw Storm 7/2 (now 7/4) UP

5.50 Nye Bevan 10/3  (now 5/2) UP

 

5. Horses to Follow

None.

 

6.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

The Kerry National

This is going to be proper soft/hard work if the HRI update is correct. The track has had 18mm in the last 24 hours with further showers expected. I’ve worked on the basis it will be soft anyway and no summer jumping ground, albeit while not being ‘winter soft’. Peregrine Run is now a NR, suggesting it must be soft enough. 

Spyglass Hill…

I think there’s just enough juice in his price and if you’re patient and have missed 7s gen, you can hopefully get matched at around 15/2 at some point on the machine. Currently 8.6 as I type but only 22k in the pot. Obviously the trainer/jockey are always a positive in a chase and HDBs are going well. HDB/Rachael are 7/19, 9p in the last 30 days, 3/11, 4p last 14.  He’s also 1/7 in the race, winning for the first time last year. He knows what’s needed for this.

The horse… well they’d have been doing the rain dance and its arrived. I’m convinced this one has a decent muddy staying pot in him. His novice chase form is very good and to me indicates this mark is very workable, when it all clicks in a handicap. He’s unexposed over fences and just gallops.

There is a niggle over his jumping sometimes but in part inexperience and there’s no better team to sort that out at home. In general he’s been fine. He may have beaten Carefully Selected at Naas over 24f, staying on, but just brushed through the top of the last. His 2nd in the race before that was decent, 12 other winners from it since. He hacked up at Gowran in proper heavy over 20f, and that’s some climb to the line. Milan Native was 2nd there and would go on to win the Kim Muir. Galway went all wrong – that standing start didn’t help him I don’t think but he was travelling well on the outside, mid pack – he smacked 6 out- Rb tried to keep him going and even jumped the next, but he clearly wasn’t going as well as she liked and had no chance- that would suggest he didn’t hurt himself, they may have pencilled this in and worked backwards. IF he jumps, which the slower ground/pace may help, he should be going close here. He should race mid div, just behind the leaders hopefully. Unless, with his jumping, they decide to throw him up there/wide to have a clean look. I’ll trust in RB. Of those that were single figures he was the most interesting now the rain has come, and looked overpriced even at 7s. They should win a big handicap chase pot with him at some point, hopefully today.

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Cap York – he looked overpriced here and worth a go now the rain has come. Meade is 1/15,4p in the race and his have been running well enough. He does well at the track, as he does with Sean, 3/11, 6p in the last 5 years.

He’s another who’s unexposed enough over fences and three starts ago it clicked – he is a bit of a character (hence the blinkers) but they booted him more prominent that day which he seemed to enjoy. He likes the mud and just gallops. He may well be the strongest stayer in this race, in proper soft. This horse was deemed good enough to run in 2019s Albert Bartlett, finishing a respectable 9th. He chased home Battleoverdoyen in a Galway Beginners chase in Oct 2019.  He has a touch of staying class for a handicapper I think. He won that Naas race well enough come the line and he could well be an Irish National type, if that came up soft. His last two runs have been on quick enough ground. He just couldn’t keep up at Galway, esp after the standing start/early pace they went. But, he kept tabs, jumped well and stayed on into 8th, although well beat. Still, in this ground, i’m hoping Sean is aggressive and he can lob along near the front, in a comfort zone. We will have some fun if he does.

Of the bigger priced ones he looked the most interesting. Maybe it hasn’t been ground/tactics the last twice, and the effect of the blinkers has worn off. But at around 22s i’ll chance him. These are his conditions and if running up to the form of that Naas win, is no 22s shot. That’s insulting.

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I didn’t really like much else at the prices. Those returning after 91+ days off are 0/55,9p in this and in soft ground, will be hard work. I didn’t think Plan of Attack was overpriced as I also think there may be better sloggers in here now the rain has come. I could have him wrong and you’d think he’s a1. He should run well and could take it. Of the three HDB i preferred Spyglass. Doctor Duffy needs more for me, in the context of price, and in these conditions. I thought Cabaret Queen is open to attack from something with more in hand, and that chase she hacked up in last Oct is now 0/55,7p. Some promise LTO though, and she does have the form to be bang there. I wouldn’t be shocked for a big run, but I did think something may be better treated now over fences. Solid though. I can leave Ravenhill, now 10, and on seasonal return. He’s got to prove it from this mark and i’m not sure if he just got away with the ground at Cheltenham, given the pace etc. Anyway even though it’s Gordon, at 8s I could leave.

Internal Transfer is interesting but i’m not sure his 4th in this last year suggested he should leap forward to the number 1 spot – this has been the plan no doubt and I can see why he has his supporters. Lightly raced in recent years and I wasn’t convinced he wanted a slog over this trip. I could be wrong but he needs more than last year and I wasn’t sure where that would come from. But, of those double figures he’s more interesting than many.

Mortal – again, yet to be convinced he wants a 3m soft ground slog, but unproven. Joseph O’Brien is a class trainer obviously, but he’s yet to master the staying chase division – in all Class 1 handicap chases… 3/78, 15p, over 3m… 0/27, 2p. 1/61, 8p in all 3m+ hncp chases, 0/46, 5p C1/2. In saying that, of course he did win The Plate (nearly 2m7f) this year, and may well have worked out how to train them/what’s needed – or now has more of that type of horse in the yard. Still, 3m+ is a question. Still, the horse may improve for conditions and arrives fit and in form. But at 11s or so, there wasn’t enough for me, esp as he’s usually held up right out the back.

Joseph and Oakley Brown worth noting when teaming up though… 10/30, 14p, +34 in the last year.

I had stamina questions over Blazer and Robin Des Foret in these conditions, as I did Kupatana – maybe 18s is big for a HDB chaser in a race like this – I wasn’t sure she wanted a 24f soft ground slog – BUT that’s more an ‘unknown’ that you weigh up against price. Still, I thought this was deep enough for her. We shall see. Rachael will have had the choice I assume.

I didn’t think the rest would be good enough / have plenty of questions in conditions. If this were Good, i’d have been more interested in The West Awakes – but now the rain has come i’ve a going/stamina concern. He could run well though. I suppose Demi Plie’s course record would make her more interesting than some. Maybe 133 still underestimates her and she is unexposed over fences but this is the deepest chase she’s run in by some way 24f is fine, whether it is in soft+, is the question. 22s is interesting though and maybe of the other 20s+ shots, she’s most interesting.

Pace…

Kupatana / Demi Plie may be up there, Doctor Duffy not far away (but he can take some riding), Cabaret Queen should be up there as may Plan of Attack.

If they ride Cap York as per his win three starts back, I hope he’s up there. I don’t think RB will want Spyglass Hill too far back either, but when its soft around here the more patiently ridden types can do well. Hopefully they’re both in a ‘no excuses’ position.

GL with any bets. Josh

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11 Comments

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  • No joy on Tuesday, 0/2,

    Wednesdays picks:

    1.50 Goodwood, Gin Palace – trainer in form, won in this class, should get a clear lead, draw OK. 2 points win.

    4.05 Goodwood, Enigmatic – down in class, trainer in form, has won in this class, course winner, will make a late run. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 22/09/20 8:47 PM Reply


  • we had the winner of the sole c3+ race yesterday.
    todays c3+video replay list
    GOODWOOD
    13:15 juan de montalban / outback boy
    13:50 willie john / gin palace
    14:55 oriental mystique / mythical madness / bullfinch
    15:30 makawee
    KEMPTON
    19:00 star of wins / damage control

    my picks
    DAMAGE CONTROL 11/1 has good aw form and has been tried in group company so connection clearly thought highly of him. just 2lb above last winning mark. 11/1 looks generous to my eyes.

    as always good luck with your selections 🙂

    warren bottomley 23/09/20 12:52 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Onto todays feast, a National to get stuck into.
    16:30 LISTOWEL

    CABARET QUEEN 1pt win 8/1 gen
    Now everyone knows my affection for the Mullins yard, he is quite brilliant at bringing horses to courses and them running their hearts out, this lady being no exception to that rule, after a prep run last year she went onto score in the Munster National and even though she probably won`t get as easy a lead here, she should be up with the pace stalking throughout and if Mr Townend can get her in a rhythm i can`t see why she shouldn`t win at decent odds. If this was in England and it was a Paul Nicholls horse the odds would be halved, it`s our lot not knowing how to price Irish horses up..

    KUPATANA 1pt win 22/1 gen
    From the winning stable from last year, front runs and front runners do really well at Listowel, used to be with Paul Nicholls and racked up three wins on the spin in Novice Company, believe they have been eyeing one and the prep race lto was a good indicator that she is nearly at peak, for me that 20`s+ is an insult and she will tank along in front and it`s just whether anyone can catch her?

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    Stewart 23/09/20 6:52 AM Reply


    • Brilliant result for you Stewart . wd .. & bravo ! 🙂

      GEORGE B 23/09/20 4:42 PM Reply


    • Well done Stewart, your charmed Irish eyes working again! Deserved to cling on there given the bold show out in front. Sadly my two got taken out by a faller, but that’s the risk with mid div ones and in any case they had loads to do, although were starting to creep. Top work

      Josh 23/09/20 4:48 PM Reply


  • I did have some selections for Redcar but apparently it’s chucking it down and rain is forecast for all day so god knows what the going will be come the off so i’m going to give it a miss and have another look at Perth.

    martin whittle 23/09/20 9:18 AM Reply


  • I’ve backed Demi Pile and Kaputana last night @ 28s and 25s respectively. That was based on ground being good. Be interesting to see how soft it has gotten overnight.
    I backed Robin Des Foret also this morning @ 18s. I know he’s 10 but he’s a course winner and is so consistent. He doesn’t seem to like the Galway hill and lto the false start didn’t help and he was bumped a couple times. Combo of ground & flat track i think 18s is slightly too big

    Anonymous 23/09/20 12:21 PM Reply


    • yep, ground will be interesting – they had 18mm over night, NH course as soft with more showers through the day possible, flat track is heavy…. https://www.hri-ras.ie/race-meetings/ground-reports/
      But, it’s rain on ‘summer’ ground so shouldn’t be winter soft, but i’ve assumed testing enough. But we shall see! GL

      Josh 23/09/20 12:30 PM Reply


  • My take on the Kerry Nat

    Weight: 10:5 and below. won 6 of the last 8.
    Age: 7-9yr olds. won 7 of the last eight.
    Combine the two. Won 5 of the last 8.

    Demi Plie.
    Kapatana.
    High sparrow.
    Blazer.

    One interesting stat.
    15 of the last 18 winners had ran here before. (quickly, check your horse) 🙂

    Demi plie. 3 from 7 in chases. has won here. distance twice. Trying this grade for the first time.
    They gave him a spin over hurdles in July and a run over the flat in Aug.
    Hopefully in readiness for today.

    22/1 everywhere.

    compound dave 23/09/20 1:59 PM Reply


  • NTD!

    Apols, I’ve saved one of the angles incorrectly, micro 2, failing to remove the ‘years’ rule (which was up to 2019) and/or failing to add in ‘2020’, so they were not flagged – missed one loser so far, but for micro 2 there’s x4… (8/1< SP) prices as of 8am for 'qualifying' purposes... Updated above in blog post / re-fresh.

    Josh 23/09/20 2:29 PM Reply


  • kerry national .. i’ve bet on a dead heat with these 4
    4.30 Listowel 17 Internal Transfer

    4.30 Listowel 6 Doctor Duffy (IRE)

    4.30 Listowel 20 High Sparrow (IRE)

    4.30 Listowel 2 Mortal (IRE)

    Anonymous 23/09/20 3:21 PM Reply


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