Members Daily Post: 17/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(161 tips/19 wins/56 places (inc wins) /+36.1 points, advised/ +31.4 Betfair SP)

#1 – 5.30 Ayr – Firlinfeau – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen)

#2 – 4.30 Ayr – So Beloved – 1 point win – 15/2 (WH/BetfS/BV/PP)

that’s all for today, x2, #1 as of 9am, #2 as of 09.45. Write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.20 Ponte – Last Surprise (12/1< guide) H4 10/3 WON 10/3 > 11/2 

2.40 Yarm – London Arch (14/1< guide) 14/1 UP

4.20 Ponte – Saisons D’Or (9/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

4.40 Yarm – Al Saariyah (12/1< guide) H3 11/10 WON 11/10>4/6 

5.10 Yarm – City Walk (10/1<) 10/3  2nd

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

4.25 Chelm – Trixie Mitskie 25/1 UP

8.30 Chelm – Greek Oasis 10/1  2nd 

Kevin Stott (16/1<)

2.30 Ayr – Ayr Poet H1 4/1 UP

3.30 Ayr – Sister Midnight 18/1 UP

4.00 Ayr – The Great Heir H4 13/2 3rd

4.30 Ayr – Vega Magic 18/1 UP

5.35 Ayr – Firlinfeu 14/1 UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

4.00 Ayr – Yoshimi (1st run) 6/1 UP

5.00 Ayr – Be Proud (2nd run) 5/1 2nd

 

6.Other/Updates

Really Super… (4.55 Chelm, 8s as of 6pm)

As I write I don’t know her price/whether value (update, 6pm- she’s been put in at 8s, and if that’s not worth 2.50/5EW , 3 places of your money, not much else is – although I could stop a train at the moment!) – but she goes for our syndicate again here, her first run back after her Stratford episode where she got so upset pre race, produced far too much lactic acid, got ‘horse cramp’ and ran as such. She had some downtime after, but not enough to lose any fitness, and had the usual drugs for such things which are long gone out of her system. That’s the first time she’s got that agitated at the track so it’s in the back of our mind that it may happen again. Amy will be there, unlike at Stratford, and will pull her out if she does the same. Fingers crossed it’s just a one off – something upset her that day and we’ll never know. Anyway, she’s fit, this could be her ideal flat trip (although still a maiden) she’s there to run her best as always, and we shall see how far that takes her. Her Kempton AW effort is working out well and she is well handicapped on the flat. But she has to show it, and repeat that. This race looks winnable to me. Hopefully she runs her race and then it will be back chasing, ground allowing. I wouldn’t be shocked if she ran a tad flat, so I won’t be bullish as that is a possible, but with any luck she’ll bounce back and run her usual consistent race. 

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AYRGold Cup Meeting Pointers HERE>>>

DAY 1

David O’Meara (12/1<, guide?) (0/18,2p bigger)

4.00 – Mishchief Star H2

4.30 – King Of Tonga 6/1 / So Beloved H1 13/2

5.35 – Herman Hesse 

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Tips write ups…

Firlinfeau –

12s looked big to me given his win here on his penultimate start where he bolted and while he had a claimer on that day, and has gone up 8lb, I still think there’s room for manoeuvre, given the style of that victory. He’s unexposed over this sort of trip also and some past firm in Ireland and how he’s run at times this season suggests he could improve further for it. Three starts back at Donny he ran a cracker on the sectionals, held up too far back and getting going too late over 10f on GF – but from 4f out to the line his furlong splits were 11.40, 11.12, and average of 11.57 for the final two. I think that was the quickest 4f to the line in the race, but he just got going too late. It was some sign though that he has pace, and that was also on the quickest ground he’s faced for some time. His win here on good. This ground will hopefully dry out a bit today. There’s a chance that York was just too soft- i’m not sure that was officially good. He never seemed to go with much zest there. Some of his form in younger days would suggest soft should have been fine, but the evidence this season for this son of New Approach suggests he’s best with plenty of good in the going. Maybe it was just an off day, or the effect of the CP had worn off (applied 1st time at Ayr, but he responded to pressure at Donny without them). But, that win was his second best ever RPR and his best ever top speed figure, suggesting now aged 5 he could improving. And that Jim may have worked him out. He’s back down in class here in what looks a weak race to my eyes, weaker than his win here. Stott rides the track well and trainer/jockey are 2/13,7p when teaming up here. He could inspire some improvement also. 12s just looked too big and an over-reaction to LTO.

He may well be chasing home Cormier, who is ‘well in’ but has been running in weak enough C6s (although in fairness they’ve been working out ok) but in ground many others may not have handled. He’s up in class and has to prove his stamina, and his jockey hasn’t ridden him before, and isn’t riding with much confidence – well, he’s 1/34 in last 14 days, 3/59 in last 30. Still, I suppose he’s solid but does need to step forward again. There was just enough there for me to take him on, we shall see if I regret that or not. With any luck mine runs his race and out-stays/classes him. But at 12s i’ll pay to find out.

I thought he was best of the rest on what they’ve done to date. The rest have far too many questions for me at their prices.

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So Beloved…

The 10YO veteran but on his first ever run in a C4 handicap, with the ‘capper giving him every chance, and arriving in decent ‘running on’ form, I couldn’t leave him at what seemed a big price. He hasn’t won for an age but I think that’s mainly been a result of his handicap marks – stuck in the 100s an mid/high 90s for a while – at the same time he was getting older, constantly running in C2 races with horses making their way up the ladder.

I thought he had every chance of outclassing this lot today. There’s a concern over the trip and whether it’s on the short side, esp as they may not go overly quick. But, the CP return for only the 3rd time ever, and he’s 0/2,2p in them when last worn in 2019, in deep handicaps off 105 and 99. One of those only last September, 85 today. He arrives in form also – He ran a cracker in a York C2 four starts ago, off 92 (5lb claim), hitting some trouble but running on/thereabouts in 4th. This is no York C2. He maybe got going too late at Thirsk/didn’t go quick enough, Haydock was decent enough, tanking through, short of room, flattening out. His run LTO back at Thirsk was solid – that was in a decent C3, stablemate Shelir (well backed) winning (he ran a cracker the race before in that very deep York C2, Montatham, Sir Busker etc). I don’t think the jockey was hard on So Beloved – he’d have been the wrong winner-  he was quiet enough as he stormed through, the only horse patiently ridden to get anywhere near the front three, who were up there the whole way. He somewhat flew at the end under hands and heels. This race is nowhere near as deep as that and he was ahead of Byron’s Choice. (who will have track position and he’ll need to pass)

So, he drops in class, gets the excellent Ray Dawson in the saddle taking off 5lb, and the CP return to add a bit more. He still has some class and i’m sure he could sit handier in a race of this level and just lob along. Maybe he just doesn’t like winning anymore but there were plenty of positives here for me, at his price. His mark is dropping to a level where he could blow away a C4 at some point.

David O’Meara…

I spent long enough analysing/tipping Mischief Star/his race this morning, before he was a NR. Annoying. However, plenty of the stats were still relevant for this race, and of interest for those of you who like to note such things. Obviously they hit my ‘big meeting’ pointers above.

But, in 7f handicaps at Ayr, DOM is 6/13,9p +20 in the last two years. 3/6, 4p in C4s. 3/5,4p when Danny T rides (2/2 when in C4s)

That’s obviously relevant also for King Of Tonga in this. I wouldn’t put you off a saver given the stats but on paper I thought the horse had plenty of question for a 5s shot. Maybe the money is significant and he is now below his last winning mark.

He also gets 1st CP (as did Mischief Star, who’s in the notebook and has an autumn 3YO+ handicap in him) and DOM does well with those in said headgear, 1st time…

Since start of 2016  12/74, 27p, +64 BFSP. (4/14 +40 in 2020) 6/32, 13p +32 when Danny T rides.

So, of some interest moving forwards.

Maybe i’ve picked the wrong DOM horse in this but 5s or so didn’t look overpriced to me and given his form this season.

DOM/Danny T are in form, 4/20, 7p in the last 14 days. 6/25,14p, +23 when teaming up at Ayr in the last year. All stats worth pondering for now/moving forward.

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GL with any bets, Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • Where does Super run Josh?

    Ta

    Jim 16/09/20 5:45 PM Reply


    • Ah, that would be useful info wouldn’t it! 🙂

      4.55 Chelmsford, and she’s been put in at 8s – a lovely over-reaction to a PU. If she runs her race i’ll be rather perturbed if she’s out the top 3!

      Josh 16/09/20 5:46 PM Reply


      • Have you been smashing into Super? Very well backed.

        Jim 16/09/20 9:54 PM Reply


        • ha, I had a nibble – I don’t think it’s that! (and our syndicate, nor anyone in the yard really, are massive gamblers that could moved markets)

          One of those examples of the overnight markets/initial markets just being wrong – 8s was an error (maybe she’ll drift out) and what happens the evening before isn’t ‘the market’ imo – maybe betfairs price, for £10-20 at that time of night, moved in to 6.00 or so. 5s, 11/2 or so is what she should have been put in at arguably. I’ll be interested to see what the market does with informed money today, any further shortening will be a result of the market assessment of the rest hopefully – those in form have been winning over 16f and if she can sit handy/is on her a game, could outspeed them over that trip off that bend. And she will outclass them I think- is the niggle as to LTO though and whether some mental impact/she needs this as some sort of confidence booster.
          The Hughes horse is unexposed 3YO and still looks as if plenty more to come, maybe we will be chasing him home in final furlong.
          We will all be gutted if she’s not placed/runs on though, and that may have an impact on where we go next.
          Josh

          Josh 17/09/20 8:01 AM Reply


          • ah ha .. don’t worry josh .. richard hughes has had 3 goes with this type of horse in this type of race on my hrb box of tricks and is currently 0/3 .. i shall be laying mr hughes later .. hope he doesn’t mind 😉 … just looking forward to seeing RS enjoy her racing again …. she is already a profit makingsuperstar already 😉 g l w d & k u t gw 🙂

            GEORGE B 17/09/20 9:06 AM Reply


            • Rear Super was tipped by one of the mainstream and most successful tipping services on twitter. The type to send bets at 6pm and crash most prices almost instantaneously. I suspect that was the reason for the price movement and they generally drift back out towards the opening price come post time

              Chris Sengelow 17/09/20 9:15 AM Reply


              • Real stupid even!

                Chris Sengelow 17/09/20 9:15 AM Reply


                • I’m making a bit of a mess of this arent I

                  Chris Sengelow 17/09/20 9:16 AM Reply


          • I can see a potential drift to 8/1 as the favourite seems to be being over bet. Is 6/1 value? Just about I would have thought.

            Martin Colwell 17/09/20 9:19 AM Reply


  • I’m starting to doubt that i can read a menu never mind a racecard at the moment but have had a look at Ayr.
    2-30. Can’t see much apart from the top two in market maybe Rosemay but no bet
    3-00. Question marks about all in this might have had a go with Glasses Up at double it’s price but up 5lb and a class thought 6-1 too short.
    4-00. Nice little puzzle i’m down to 3 Hajjam, Presidential and Mischief Star
    4-30. Byron’s Choice looks a solid ew chance back down to 7f ticks all my boxes.
    5-00. Autumn Flight only up 3lb for win lto could very well follow up here , Afandum at a bigger price might be worth a little ew.
    just a few thought’s looks a tricky day good luck if your having a punt.

    martin whittle 16/09/20 7:25 PM Reply


  • A 8/1 > 9/2 winner and a non runner on Wednesday.

    Two for Thursday:

    2.20 Pontefract, Stormy Girl – handicap debut, course and distance winner, drops in class, can ge to the lead here, draw OK. 1 point each way.
    4.00 Ayr, Gravity Force – course and distance winner, drops in class, first time visor, can make a run from off the pace, draw OK. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 16/09/20 8:38 PM Reply


  • GOLF – It is the U.S. Open starting today.

    In agreement with Josh I am providing two free bets from my tipping service here.

    Webb Simpson, 1 point each way at 25/1.

    Sebastian Munoz, 1 point each way, 150 to 200/1.

    Win prices on golf are usually bigger on the exchanges.

    I am working with Josh on an offer for Racing To Profit members. More details next week.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 16/09/20 8:44 PM Reply


  • todays c3+ video replay list.
    PONTEFRACT
    14:20 mountain brave / gale force maya
    YARMOUTH
    14:20 crystal pegasus / london arch
    15:10 c’est no mour / dance to paris
    17:10 mokaatil / woven
    CHELMSFORD
    18:00 extrodinair / full authority
    AYR
    15:00 glasses up / spirit dancer / first impression

    as always good luck 🙂

    warren bottomley 17/09/20 10:32 AM Reply


  • REALLY SUPER DOOPER .. AS I said josh … laid the hughes horse now 0/4 😉 and smashed into really super with a shekkel or two 🙂

    wd and congrats ..sheez back ..probably never went away ? 🙂

    lgb

    GEORGE B 17/09/20 5:02 PM Reply


  • Nice one, Josh! Really Super wins really well. Got a little bit lucky with the split IMO but she really asserted and won really well.

    Had a few quid on when I saw she was running today so congrats to all concerned. BSP returned 11, not too shabby!

    Eamon Roberts 17/09/20 5:03 PM Reply


    • cheers – oh, well you need luck in any flat race and even more so if you fall out the stalls!! Think she thought it was a gentle chasing start haha. But, it worked out fine in the end, she didn’t mind the kick back and was brave when the gap came. She was entitled to do that IF bouncing back to her best / she was over (esp mentally) LTO. She’d been ok at home, but not like she was pre MR, hence not as bullish. But on that Kempton form she was entitled to smash that mediocre bunch. Onwards, back chasing I suspect, if the rain stays away

      Josh 17/09/20 5:15 PM Reply


      • She did get to 8/1 and so I was on!!!!

        An excellent effort and a win is a win. Bag of carrots for the winner!

        Martin Colwell 17/09/20 5:37 PM Reply


  • Just to say many congrats Josh

    Allan 17/09/20 5:06 PM Reply


  • Congratulations to all concerned, won me some Ayr losses back

    Mark Curtis 17/09/20 5:32 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh for sharing, and being so positive.

    compound dave 17/09/20 6:43 PM Reply


  • Congrats with Really Super Josh. I hope that lifts your spirits a bit as it’s been tough lately but she deserved it!

    Adam S 17/09/20 9:30 PM Reply


    • Thanks Adam.
      Hmm, well, ‘tough’ is a polite way of saying ‘fffing woeful’!
      I separate Super from the rest of my racing brain/enjoyment, but such form always dulls the senses a tad. Some of it is variance and racing luck but a chunk is just not being good enough. In the context that last jumps season was woeful, also after a very good start. I am concerned but I’ll get it right. I don’t mentally feel out of form or that I can’t read it right. Although I’ve tried to hard to force winners in recent days. Still. I’ll keep going. There was a reason the summer was free to air for a time, and at this rate it will continue to be so for a while!
      Josh

      Josh 17/09/20 9:36 PM Reply


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