2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
5. Horses to Follow
The Flat 2020
(156 tips/19 wins/54 places (inc wins) /+41.1 points, advised/ +36.4 Betfair SP)
#1 – 1.30 Thirsk – Upstaging – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP 11/1 (4th), -1, no excuse, settled, they went hard, came there with every chance, flattened out final 1/2 f.
#2 – 2.05 Thirsk- Nirodha – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) 2nd, – 1
that’s all for today, as of 08.45, write ups at bottom…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
1.30 Thirsk- Upstaging (9/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ UP
3.Other Micro Angles
4.05 Bath – Motagally H2 7/4
7.20 Wolv – Arietta (10/1< best) 18/1
7.50 Wolv – Araifjan H3 5/1
2.05 Thirsk – Nirodha H1 7/2 2nd
4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
5. Horses to Follow
Tips write ups below and some musings as to Big Races /Saturdays moving forwards, and jumps research…
Some foundation stats to start…
Tim Easterby/David Allan are 9/48, 21p, +19 SP when teaming up with handicappers here in the last two years, 2/9,4p over this 7f , 2/10, 5p in C5s. They’ve also done well with those cappers here returning within 10 days of their last start… 3/13,8p, +23. They’re solid enough stats and David arrives in fine form in the last 14 days.
He’s well handicapped and having been new to the yard this season, I think it’s a matter of time at this lowly level. He’s a previous winner off 94 and while clearly not that good anymore, there’s been a few signs of life this season, his mark having dropped a further 4lb from his seasonal return. He’s posted x4 RPRs above this mark, a 70, 75 (this CD), 70 and 69 on his last two runs. There’s 8 horses in here above their last winning marks, who obviously have some questions there.
I’ve watched back all his runs this season and he’s gone with promise. Redcar was solid when well fancied, 6f – he was outpaced there, stayed on, beaten 3L. It’s his next run over this CD which caught the eye, off 71. He was drawn in the car park there and was slow away (which he can be at times), however that looked to be by design, dropped in out the back. They appeared to just take their medicine there. Due to that draw he had so much to do, but flew down the outside to be beaten 1 1/2L in a C4 – finishing ahead of Twin Appeal in the process, who re-opposes. He was just the one pace in the final 1/2f, that monster effort from the back/wide having caught up with him. He moved like a horse on a lenient mark for what’s left of his ability. I can ignore the next two runs – a deep enough York C4, 8f and I don’t think he wants Good to Firm. At Newcastle he was held up near the back in what looked a dawdle, and could never really get into it. His last two runs are from a horse in form. Muss was decent, racing more prominently this time- I wonder if DA will try and have him handier from this box 1, IF he starts well as he did there. That was a 3YO+ handicap and he bumped into an in-form/progressive Fahey filly off 65 who he was giving 8lb to, lugging 9-11. (she finished behind Amy’s at Haydock in the run before that) Catterick was another 3YO+ race – he was slow away again there and out the back as they hurtled down the hill – how he got so close again i’m not sure, staying on up the middle, nearest at the finish (possibly the worst part of the track on the day, the 1st and 3rd having been up there throughout)
I think if he repeated that Thirsk effort, from this draw/possibly handier, he’d go very close here. 12s has lured me in. This is a 4YO+ handicap so no unexposed 3YOs he has to give weight to. I thought everything may fall right for him here today. Of course it could be that when push comes to shove in the final 1f he just doesn’t put it fully in, and if he’s ahead/upsides, who knows – but he’s had a 40% win/place SR and there are legitimate excuses for all runs this season, and four of them have been solid, esp in the context of this race. Hopefully he starts well and can be in the front 3rd, on the rail. I think he’ll go very close here if running his race.
It’s an open race to my eyes, and everything has some sort of question and not much to fear. One of those ordinary C5s where whatever goes in, you can look back and make a solid case no doubt! With the odd one that always leaves you puzzled. This looks the weakest handicap Upstaging has run in this season.
I thought 7/2 looked fair in what looks a weak race to my eyes. The main attraction, at the price – or a box I wanted ticked, is that she should get an easy lead on the front, even from this draw – well, she’s the only one who likes to go forward and should have no issue getting out and across, a fair while before the bend appears. Amy remains in decent form, 8/32, 12p the last 30 days and Stotty is a good jockey booking, they’re 1/4,2p when teaming up
She hasn’t run a bad race this season and all three races have worked out well/been stronger affairs than this I think. 11 subsequent winners from them. She’d have needed her Newmarket return, Sandown was solid – maybe firm enough – but in any case she did have to race wide for a while, and it’s a harder CD to make all, esp in a 14 runner race. Still, 6 subsequent winners from that,plus her, inc the winner since going in again. LTO at Haydock she hacked up really – powering away come the line, an RPR of 82 to give hope this mark is still lenient – as with the ‘hot form’ also, and her lightly raced/progressive profile (3/7 on turf).
The distance is a question but on breeding, and the way she races /responds /stays would indicate she may relish it and improve further. Amy and the team clearly think she’s worth a crack at it – and there’s plenty of 8-10f relatives in her pedigree, inc her dam. All of her wins to date have been on flatter tracks also.
I just thought she looked very solid here and IF running her race, always the if, she will be very hard to beat. She’s also got a ferocious winning mindset and if she’s bang there in the final furlong, it will take a tough one to pass her.
The rest need her to underperform. If she does then this is wide open I think. They’ve all got questions galore. I thought she could easily be 2-1, 5/2 in this line up. Fingers crossed.
i’ve been pondering these – not so much my performance as that’s a given, but at least taking an approach which may be more useful/ engaging/ entertaining /fun… while the tips are the tips, a big part of what I do here has always been to try and take us all on some sort of journey, trying to provide musings / stats etc to help in your own deliberations, or possible development (including clearly, what not to do!! :)) I haven’t been doing much of that.
With that in mind, the approach to some of these big handicaps is a bit naff – yes there are the trends/stats etc posted on a Thursday, which some of you will use. But by the time I get to those Saturday races, and with the write ups etc late Sat morning – they’re too late to be of any use I think- they may be interesting to read, if you’ve time on a Saturday, but not much time to ponder my thoughts and maybe weave them into your own.
So, i’m going to try something different this week –
Firstly for Saturday’s I will just focus on one or two of the big handicaps, and start deliberating earlier in the week – these 7am-11am Saturday mornings are not sustainable, and even more so when in a rut. They really don’t tee me up for a ‘life is for living weekend’ ! 🙂
I just need to properly get stuck into one of these big handicaps – two if time allows – I do enjoy attacking those, I think I always will, so it’s not a case of ignoring them, just less is maybe more. I’ve been missing things in recent weeks, and not doing all the runners justice – I didn’t even watch back Stone of Destiny’s Newmarket and Wokingham runs – deary me. That’s a result of doing to much on a Sat morning/looking at all the content/ not pulling my finger out enough on a Friday. I should ignore all my other Saturday content, for ‘tipping’ purposes (all the other reams of horses listed) and just focus on 1 or 2 big handicaps – and go to town on them studying wise, boxed off by 6pm Friday.
I will also try and do a preview video on the Thursday afternoon or by Friday lunchtime, of a big Sat handicap – not with my selections/thoughts as such – they may not be fully formed by then- but a ‘walk through’ of my trends/pointers and what you could consider when looking at said race – something actually useful to help you pick your own horses out – and indeed touch on other stats of interest etc that may be useful elsewhere/jot down. There hasn’t been enough of that from me and I really should be doing better on that front.
And also, if i’m limited to one or two Saturday races, 1 to 4 points max, the weekend can only get so bad! 🙂
Said approach may also allow me to have more fun with Saturday’s racing… and maybe some time for an ‘ITV 7’ ‘through the card’ – mainly a list of horses, the odd note, and odd stat of interest.
Well, that’s what i’m going to try anyway, and we shall see if it goes down well/ is useful for your own punting.
I don’t like my tipping being woeful, obviously – but when its combined with offering you good readers very little of utility, esp for those big race days, it’s not really good enough.
Trainer Profiles : Jumps 2020/21…
In the next two weeks i’ll hope to get this boxed off, so there likely won’t be any Micro Monday posts. I’m thinking of focusing on 10 jumps trainers (yet to be identified, Matt B at Geegeez wrote a cracking article a few weeks back reviewing jumps trainers on a number of metrics which will help), but i’ll be taking a similar approach with the flat – in the sense of their foundation stats – AE/IV/% srs etc being solid.
I may also look at 3-5 Jockey Profiles.
Those two pieces of work, plus the ‘monthly trainers’ should give us plenty to get stuck into jumps wise – with the odd ‘other angle’ researched through the season maybe. (suggestions always welcome) In addition to the ‘big meeting’ stats, and 1-2 big race trends for those tasty Jumps Saturday handicaps.