Members Daily Post: 05/09/20 (complete)

Quals, trends pointers etc

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(143 tips/19 wins/50 places (inc wins) /+57.6 points, advised/ +52.9 Betfair SP)

None on Saturday from me. 

I’m not in the form to be attacking another competitive Saturday and I need to spend some time re-focusing on the weekday stuff and pondering recent weeks. Maybe i’m putting up too many and don’t have a high enough threshold, i’m not sure. Although for a first season properly attacking the flat on a daily basis that pile isn’t too bad and the ROI is solid. Although I’m on a -27 points run and I’m conscious a handful of biggies are mainly responsible for the profit. It’s been a bruising few weeks.

I have had a good look through all of the below/trends post Friday afternoon but many of the big handicaps looks ultra competitive. I don’t really want to wade into Haydock’s mud. I’m also away for the weekend in London visiting friends (socially distanced of course) and i’m not very good at being in a good mood when putting up losers! (something to work on – i’m not in a bad mood ALL the time of course!) 

Those that were near the top of my tipping list were from Ascot, Perfect Inch 8s in the 2.30 Ascot, and Documenting 12s in the 4.15 Ascot. I know what will happen now, but there we go! The cherry on top of the non tipping cake will be one of Dark Jedi or Rajinsky bolting up in the 2.50 from Haydock! But again, that looks one complex puzzle that is beyond me on this occasion. Hopefully Dingle bolts up in the 3.10 Kempton but I doubt he’ll be much of a price to do so. For the jumps fans there’s a couple of monthly trainer angles below for Twister, which have generally served us well in the last 3 years or so. GL with any bets. Josh 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.15 Hayd- Favorite Moon (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) H4 9/4

2.15 Hayd – Midrarr (12/1< guide) H3 9/2

2.30 Ascot – Perfect Inch (14/1< guide) 8/1

3.05 Ascot – A Star Above (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) H4 12/1

3.05 Ascot – Al Qaqaa (12/1< guide) 15/2

4.00 Hayd – Aplomb (10/1< guide) 11/2

4.15 Ascot – Blue Mist (any) H4 4/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding

4.00 Hayd – Ishvara 12/1

Jim Crowley (any)

1.45 Hayd – Khaloosy 2/1

2.15 Hayd – Arthurian Fable H1 3/1

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

1.30 Kemp – Temple Bruer 5/1

2.00 Kemp – Gussy Mac 16/1

4.20 Kemp – Rue De La Gaite H4 10/1

4.55 Kemp – Crimewave H4 15/2

5.30 Kemp – The Lamplighter H1  11/4

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

Nigel-Twiston Davies

4.10 Strat – One Forty Seven (micro 1) (any, 10/1< best) H4 9/1

5.20 Strat – Double Court (micro 1) (any, 10/1< best) H3 15/2

*Note: The ‘H’ horses as per ‘blog explained’ note above/results updates etc refer to Flat/AW qualifiers in Sections 2/3 only, not the return of this Monthly Trainers jumps section. Next week i’ll pull out any research on HRB ratings in jumps handicaps and decide what to flag etc. 

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

2.35 Kemp – Tinandali (2nd run)

2.50 Hayd – Dark Jedi (1st run) 18/1

2.50 Hayd – Rajinksy (1st run) H1 8/1

3.10 Kemp – Dingle (1st run) 2/1

3.40 Ascot – Golden Apollo (3rd run) 8/1

3.40 Ascot – Kimifive (1st run) 9/1

3.40 Ascot – Spanish City (3rd run) 7/1

4.00 Hayd – Count Dorsay (3rd run) 8/1

8.00 Wolvs – Glenties (2nd run) 15/2

 

 

6.Other/Updates

Saturday’s handicap pointers.. i’ve ‘applied’ the research from my various trends and added the ‘shortlists’ and ‘trainer pointers’ to the bottom of that post, which you can read HERE>>> 

Results Update HERE>>>

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Always Back Winners…

Well I can’t tip for toffee at the moment, some running well but not looking like winning, others running rather poorly. Thankfully the only service I currently follow, outside of my own content, is doing rather well. Gary booted home another 10/1 winner on Friday with Autumn Flight making all, and for those on his £1k to £10k seasonal challenge its currently over a 45% win/place rate and the bank is £2248.23 with an ROI of over 36% and current stakes £28.10 EW.

Now +74.75 points to 1 point EW stakes, at prices generally available at around 8am. Solid. And averaging 6/7 bets per week which is very stress free 🙂

As always you can take an RTP exclusive £5 trial for one month HERE>>> 

(i’ve picked a good day to post the link… Gary appears to be updating/upgrading the site so that will be back working soon)

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

    1. Hi Tony, if you click that link above you should see a results tab at the top of the site, or if on mobile the box in top right hand corner which gives the drop down menu.
      Within the results posts, the latest after today’s winner, you scroll to the bottom and see the spreadsheets, which you can download, going back to 2017 I think, if not 2016. Including the 1.25% of Bank approach and the 1 point EW level stakes. I believe as of last year they’re recorded to advised prices/non bog, given the various changea bookies made to timings etc. And as with anything I try to find discounted/risk free trials for a reason, you’d know within a month if for you although after the last 2/3 weeks he may be due another minor dip, such is the game. Josh

  1. A 2/1 > 13/8 winner and a loser on Friday.

    Two for Kempton on Saturday:

    2.00, Zamaani – coming along nicely, trainer in form, can go with the pace here, good draw. 1 point each way.

    3.45, Jahbath – 4 from 4 on the all weather, trainer in form, course and distance winner, won in this class, draw OK. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

  2. What an exciting and challenging day’s punting! These are EW bets:
    Ascot
    155 Mubaalegh
    230 Indie Angel
    305 Shandoz
    230 Spanish City
    415 Oh This Is Us
    Haydock
    145 Kinross
    325 Art Power
    400 Count Dorsay
    435 Glasvegas

  3. Personal note to Josh

    I’m a maths / probability geek and I just wanted to say:

    Do not be overly concerned by a run of losers. Fact is it is inevitable mathematically. Without going into a long proof (available online anyway if you search), in a very long sequence of bets (i.e EVERY bet you ever had) long losing runs are impossible to avoid.

    In fact, even at odds of Even Money, in an infinite sequence it has been proven that runs of 200 loers in a row can be expected at some point.

    At the odds you bet at, the possibility of very, very long losing sequences is real.

    Upshot: do not be dismayed!! You are still in decent profit.

    Solution: don’t cut the selections down, Just focus on the process that produced those winners and the maths will take care of itself

    best wishes

    Rick

    1. Thanks Rick. Oh I’m not dismayed don’t worry, but such runs always play on the mind a tad. But they’re inevitable and I’ve been playing in a. Higher percentage of C2s /bigger fields in recent weeks, esp with Yotk and such results are inevitable. A couple of reversals away in some races from it all being good. Fine margins. And of course the number of bets is fairly low which means such runs will always last a long time/a few weeks. But that’s how I play it. Not sure I’ll ever be a 3-8 tips a day, just not for me. So, it’s inevitable to a point.
      I did have a good look yesterday and did think I’d be forcing a bet for the sake of wanting to be right in those tough handicaps. Many in form, well handicapped and still unexposed in conditions.
      GL with your pokes today.
      Josh

    2. Would not the process be made up of criteria that would determine volume of selections anyway? The most famous saying that comes out of performance is ‘Process before the prize’.

      My personal view is volume is a very important factor in the selection process. If someone were to try to cover every race they would no doubt fail as their brain would lose its ability to disseminate information. therefore there is the need to be selective to be successful.

      I agree that losing runs are inevitable and the only thing that matters is long term profit. We have seen on this site in the past some contributors who have had periods of success before it all went south long term.

      The issue with losing runs generally is that:

      1. Does the punter have the bankroll to sustain it?
      2. Does the tipster have the long term record that it is worthwhile following them through the downturn?

      The first issue is financial and the second one is time and due diligence. Also to what percentile would you need to go to with the losing run before it broke the punter?

      Martin

      1. Turns out frequency of bet is irrelevant

        whether you are betting once a week or every 10 seconds on the toss of a coin makes no difference to the potential length of the losing run

        My main point was that Josh has been reducing bet frequency because of encountering a losing run and losing confidence.

        But the maths says reducing the number of bets won’t necessarily end the losing run.

        1. I appreciate that you are focused from a pure maths basis re volume, which is obviously correct in terms of the heads and tails etc basis of sample.

          Where the volume factor comes into process is related to the function of the brain, in that whilst it may have the capacity to process infinite amounts of data, it will lose its quality of thought and processing because of the overload. that is where it would relate to sports tipping and generally decision making.

          So the maths is only one function of a losing run or vice versa. There are subtler factors that would lead to success.

          Martin

  4. Looks like Always Back Winners site down today anyone else having same problem
    logging on. S Williams

    1. Yep I don’t believe any tips today, and as such he’s upgrading back end or something but not sure he communicated as such! Should be back up at some point today in time for tomorrow
      Josh

  5. staying away from the main big field races i’ve backed 4 at £2 ew and a small ew L15 , i’ll probably regret omitting Golden Apollo A3-40 but i had already backed it on the exchange as a system bet.
    Ascot
    2-30. Look Around 12-1
    Haydock
    3-25. Glen Shiel 28-1
    4-00. Copper Knight 18-1
    4-35. Star Shield 9-1
    i’m finding it hard not to back Oh This Is Us @33-1 and will just have a quid ew just in case.

  6. yesterdays c3+ list had 3 winners and 14 placed horses
    completely forgot to post aw list as i was busy doing todays big c3+ and Kempton all weather list
    still an elusive or place for my picks in September so far.

    todays c3+ video replay list
    ASCOT
    13:55 yimou / concierge / tone the barone
    14:30 perfect inch / escape the city / look around
    15:05 coconut / shandoz / my frankel
    15:40 may sonic / indian creek / spanish city
    16:15 via serendipity / revich / documenting / blue mist
    HAYDOCK
    13:10 alenquer / fancy man / river alwen
    13:45 graignes / stormy antartic / kinross
    14:15 favourite moon / midrarr
    14:50 rhythmic intent / cape coast / brandon castle / radjinsky
    15:25 golden horde / dream of dreams / hello youmzain
    16:00 danrevo / wonderwork / militia
    KEMPTON
    14:00 lauded / mystery smiles / hala hala hala
    14:25 ENABLE
    15:45 bullfinch / zwayyan / solid stone
    WOLVERHAMPTON
    20:00 galata bridge / bronze river / never alone

    KEMPTON AW (rest of card)
    13:30 never say when / temple bruer / zoffarelli
    15:10 recovery run / night moment
    16:20 rue de la gaite / pentiment / anglo saxon
    16:55 takeonefortheteam / red for all / crimewave
    17:30 cappanatty con / the lamplighter / redemptive

    my picks
    GRAIGNES E/W 28/1 (1:45 haydock) multiple group 1 and 3 runner over in France and has faced some really good opposition over there. hasn’t fired since coming to the uk but this sort of ground should suit well today.
    his best form is as good as anything in the race and he’s only a 4 year old so he is far from being written off in this level competition. there is gonna be a race in him and at 28/1 hopefully today is it.

    as always good luck today with your selections 🙂

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