Hello,
It’s time for another monthly results update… now through June/July/August of the Flat season 2020.
You can download a detailed spreadsheet HERE>>>
(the green link on that page… ‘RTP Aug 2020 Results’)
There’s various tabs to flick through across the bottom… the ‘month to month’ tab summarising all the stats angles/horses to follow.
I can’t get the online version to work at the moment.
In any case… some further details/’highlights’ below…
Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
Just looking at those that ‘qualified’ on the morning odds, around 8am, that I add next to each qualifier… so, ignoring the ‘Did Not Qualify’ (DNQ) horses, based on the odds caps of my historical research…
August: 83 bets / 15 wins / 31p (inc wins) / +12.345 (8am price/non bog) / +21.36 BFSP
Season to date (June/July/Aug) : 247 bets / 50 winners / 100 places (inc wins) / +49.68 points (8am/non bog) / +51 BFSP (all based on 1 point win)
A 20% win SR is solid and I can’t be anything but pleased that this research, and the new approach I took, appears to be working well. If there’s one part of the daily content i’d like to work ‘systematically’ it would be this.
The 40% win/place SR gives me confidence that they should just keep ticking along, although they’ll obviously been some lengthy losing runs with a win SR like that – 31 or so every 1000 bets is the maximum likely losing run with a 20% win SR.
The ‘Did Not Qualify’ horses… (based on my historical research/odds caps)
If you just ignored odds and backed all those horses listed in Section 2 that’s an additional…
63 bets / 6 wins / 15 places (inc wins) / +26.8 (8am odds/non bog) / +33.16 BFSP
That approach would be for the brave – a 10% win SR does mean a likely max losing run of 66 at some point and plenty shorter in between. So far this season they’ve had a losing runs of 23 and 14.
x3 of those winners, and all big prices, were in the early weeks of the season, where maybe the market had less of a clue than it usually would early season – with no on course bookmakers/owners at the track, and odds compilers putting their finger in the air. Maybe. Or they’ll just continue to tick along, finding the odd biggie along the way. Anyway, you can use that info in any way you please.
The evidence suggests my approach to researching the 15 Flat Trainers for this season has been solid, and i’ll try and repeat the trick with the winter Jumps version, which I aim to have ready for Chepstow’s first meeting in October.
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Horse Race Base Ratings
H1 / H2 / H3 /H4
As per the ‘blog content explained’ document, which you can find in each daily post, the top 4 Horse Race Base (HRB) rated win around 62% of all Flat handicaps.
Those of you who’ve been reading for a while will now be familiar with the red symbols I add next to horses listed in the daily content, denoting whether they’re in the Top 4 HRB ratings.
Initially I added these to help give us all some further context/info, to help in the battle against the old enemy. Remember, most of my stats angles (certainly Sections 2/3) are not based on the horse or the horse’s ability, and certainly not in the context of today’s opposition. That’s where HRB ratings help.
Looking at Sections 2 + 3 of the daily content (‘the stats’ sections)… EVERY horse listed that has a H next to them in sections 2+3, any odds…
August was a bit disappointing, with H1 losing -9 to morning odds, and the H2/3/4 losing -8 to morning odds. Maybe they were due a duff run, leaving the figures on…
H1 : 54 bets / 11 wins / 21 places (inc wins) / -14.915 (8am non bog) / -13.32 BFSP
H2/3/4: 147 bets / 35 wins / 63 places (inc wins) / +36.3 (8am non bog) / +36.26 BFSP
The ‘H1’ stats, systematically at least, are looking a bit mediocre now but we shall see what they do in September. It could be they offer little value.
‘H2/3/4’ are looking solid and I’d take those stats repeating every 150 bets or so. Their win/place % though are not too different from the Trainer Profiles qualifiers, as example, and while the ROI is higher, the TPs are proving more profitable – although a lot more bets.
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Other highlights…
You can flick through the results spreadsheet above to see how various angles have been performing month on month/totals.
I’m happy enough with how the various jockey angles are performing. If i’d like one section of the blog to work ‘systematically’ it would be The Trainer Profiles (section 2) and so far so good on that front. But, some of the ‘other angles’ are doing ok…
Jim Crowley: 48 bets / 10 wins / 14 places (inc wins) / +6.92 (8am/non bog) / +17 BFSP
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‘Losing Tips’ – I track these for x3 runs after i’ve tipped them, stopping if they win within those 3 runs. How they do is some indication of whether I was on the right lines when tipping them – esp if an unexposed/hot form/should be more to come element etc.
So far this season as at end of August, they are…
99 runners / 13 wins / 33 places (inc wins) / +1.8 (8am/non bog) / +24 BFSP
So, not too bad to BFSP and a 33% win/place SR isn’t too bad. It could be they’re just best following on their very next start and maybe that’s something I need to take a closer look at.
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I think that’s all for today.
As always if you’ve any questions etc then fire away,
Josh
