Members Daily Post: 04/09/20 (complete)

Tipx3 + write ups, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(143 tips/19 wins/50 places (inc wins) /+57.6 points, advised/ +52.9 Betfair SP)

#1 – 4.50 Ascot – Afaak – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP, -1

#2 – 5.20 Ascot – Whelans Way – 1 point EW – 8/1 (WH) 15/2 (BV/UniB) (1/5 5 places gen) UP (6th), -2

#3 – 5.55 Ascot –  Dancinginthewoods – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365/WH) 7/1 (gen) UP, -1

That’s all for today, tips x3, 4 points total, #1 as of 9am, #2/3 as of 09.56..write ups at bottom of post.. don’t forget to refresh the page. There’s also been the odd technical gremlin this morning linked to the changes i’m making back end/hosting, so i’m hoping some of the content doesn’t just disappear!

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.20 Thirsk – Fantail (12/1< guide) 8/1 UP

3.40 Ascot – Labeebb (12/1< guide) H2 11/4 3rd

5.05 Thirsk – Turn To Rock (9/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

5.20 Ascot – Strong Power (8/1<) 33/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

5.20 Ascot – Klute (9/1<) 40/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

5.20 Ascot – Mokaatil (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sires

3.10 Down R – Turnpike Trip7/2 UP

Straight Track Specialists

3.20 Hayd – Angel Alexander (any) 10/1 UP

Jim Crowley (any odds)

4.15 Ascot – Al Salt 15/8 UP

4.50 Ascot – Afaak 11/2 UP

Kevin Stott

2.20 Thirsk – Dawaaween (16/1<) H1 5/1 3rd

2.55 Thirsk – Infant Hercules (18/1<) H4 9/1 UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.20 Hayd  – Angle Alexander (3rd run) 10/1 UP

4.00 Thirsk – Euro Implosion (3rd run) 14/1 UP

5.20 Ascot – Strong Power (1st run) 33/1 UP

5.25 Hayd – Union (1st run) 12/1 UP

5.20 Ascot – Whelans Way (2nd run) 8/1 UP

5.55 Ascot – Dancinginthewoods (2nd run) 7/1 UP

7.50 Kemp – Music Therapist (2nd run) 20/1

8.50 Kemp – Lord Halifax (1st run) 18/1

Hot Form

1.00 Down R – Roses Blue (1st run) 5/2 UP

 

6.Other/Updates

Saturday’s Feature Handicap Pointers : READ HERE>>> 

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Results Update Post HERE>>>

(for August/2020 Flat to date… the overall record of Trainer Profiles worth noting, +50 points as of end Aug, as is H2/3/4 and various other bits and pieces, inc the results spreadsheet for all angles/tips etc) 

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Jamie SPENCER… your periodic reminder that he’s a genius on the Ascot straight 8f, where he tends to ride it better than anyone else, esp handicaps… 8/25, 11p, +82 SP (EW+ 100) last 5 years. Suspect can back blind EW until he retires, if that’s your style. (cue, never rides another winner over the CD!) Orbaan on Friday…?

And… Hayley Turner in recent years worth noting…2018> , decent … ALL straight track Ascot handicaps… 4/19, 10p, +106 BFSP …7/8f… 4/11, 7p. 3/3 for Charlie F, 1/4,3p for Mr Elsworth. Places for four others.

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Tips write ups…

Afaak – the first of three Ascot pokes and I thought the most solid of Ascot handicappers looked a shade overpriced here. On what these have achieved to date in handicaps, he has the best form by some way. He’s run some cracking races here, inc winning a big one off this mark and the yard are having a decent spell – 7/22,12p in the last 14 days. His seasonal return was solid, if unspectacular but he still ran well, having over-raced to my eyes. It could be that now, aged 6, he takes a run or two to tune up, having previously had a decent record fresh. But in any case that was a deep renewal that’s worked out well- the best 8f handicapping form this season I think. I’ll ignore his 10f York run. Goodwood was much more like it in 1st blinkers, keen enough, trapped wide at times, but running a cracker. Solid form. Prompting would go on to run well/place at York in what looks a strong race- Montatham, Sir Busker 1st and 2nd (strongest big field C2 8f form-lines this season I think. Top Rank unexposed and much more to come. Prompting 3rd). The point is that he obviously has the form to beat these, and beat them well, even from this mark.

They remove the blinkers now, and maybe he does have an attitude problem as he gets older but i’m not sure. His last run, beaten by today’s fav, was odd. He was stuck on the wing in a race that wasn’t strongly run. He drifted back, outpaced, plugged on. I suspect a return here, and a more prominent ride (in a race lacking much pace) may help – and this stiff 8f appears ideal. IF he runs his race, he’s a 3s shot in this line up for me.

The dangers…

Tempus could follow up. I didn’t think he looked that fit LTO and connections thought he’d come on for it. Clearly he could have stacks in hand but he has had problems with his feet, hence the lay-off, and on his second start after that return – on the back of a hard race, it’s not impossible he bombs out – or indeed finds the good ground too firm for him. It is his first run here also having been kept to flat tracks. He may go forward – hopefully Afaak tracking, but not much else does in this unless Franny just bombs on.

I was happy to take him on and if he bolts up, so be it. The main danger and the money horse, is Walhaan – no-one missed him two starts back, connections dragged into the stewards room. He was held up there, travelled all over them but Harley sat quiet for a bit too long, although a wall of horses in front. By the time he switched and flew, the winner had gone. He’s clearly well handicapped and possible saver material. BUT he can be keen, they may not go that quick here, and he does have to prove he fully stays a stiff 8f. He shapes as if he does, but still some questions. But, he could give them all plenty to think about and he’s been tipped by Andy Holding. He doesn’t look the easiest of rides. Gin Palace has some solid form and may run his race, that could be enough, but something could have a bit too much.

Pace wise… well Tempus may be prominent and Gin Palace. No out and out front runners in here. If Blown By Wind doesn’t fluff the start maybe Franny will try and dictate. He has a big stamina question. Jim will hopefully track whatever is in front of him, closely. But he should be powering home, if running his race.

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Whelans Way – a rare EW bet and obviously he’ll come 6th but there are 5 places up for grabs and generally when that’s the case the maths are in our favour long term. IF he runs his race and there are 5 better horses than him in this, then i’ve got this badly wrong.

I think he’s the one to beat on all known form. I fancied him two starts back when thinking the stiff 5f here would be fine. It wasn’t. And nor was Salisbury’s 5f either, rushed off his feet both times. But still running on through the line, not tailed off.

In handicaps he’s 1/2,2p over this CD (the only course winner in the race, and only one of 5 to have ran here), the ground is perfect, 1/2,2p under James Doyle who pops back on for first time since that Newbury win 3 starts back (where he won cosily to my eyes).

He stays 7f ok and this step back up in trip should help him. That Ascot 5f wasn’t a bad race either, deeper than this I think. Blue De Vega won that off 86 and then won NTO in a C2 at Sandown. Hans Solo Berger has ran well/placed since and the 7th has gone in also. He wasn’t disgraced there. I still think he looks progressive.

The pace was also interesting…

The stalls are against the stand side, so high numbers up against this near side rail. Those low ‘could’ get marooned and there’s the odd fancied one down there/horse in form. The only habitual pace horse in this is Tuscan Oasis who may try and go forward from 10, Doyle tracking him. He’s a load of dead-wood/patiently ridden types on his inside I think – not impossible he can amble across to this rail at some point. Whether that’s the place to be today I don’t know. In any case he can travel easily near the front end and assuming not battered by a headwind, should be in the perfect spot.

I thought he had the best recent form in this, and the course form here was a big plus, as is the ability to just stay.

Punchbowl Flyer and My Style should go well, if not inconvenienced by the low draw, or is up the middle going to be the place to be? Tuscan Oasis needs to step up I think. Some nibbles for Honore Daumier and some signs the Candy team could be about to burs into life – but he’s got plenty to prove. Unexposed though. I found it hard to fancy much else.

I think Whelans is the one to beat. IF he runs his race and he doesn’t go close, top 5 at worst, it may well be a long end to the Flat season, and i’ll be pondering switching to the jumps! He has gone keenly a couple of times but I think that’s him, and James seems to be able to settle him better than the others who’ve ridden him. Fingers crossed.

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Dancinginthewoods…

Well he brings the best recent form to the table here, and by some way I thought. Although of course a 3YO only handicap where anything, to a point, can happen. I fancied him two starts back for some reason – well it was his first run after being gelded and the yard had been quiet, but the price lured me in. He ran as if needing it. His run before that at Haydock in June has worked out very well, esp for this grade – horses 7/27, 15p subsequently. His last run was solid form also, challenging away from the rail, beaten by a decent one in conditions, the front 2 pulling clear. That was a solid C3 despite only 7f runners and it was strongly run. He drops to a C4 here and shapes as if a stiff 7f may be right up his street. He will stay on. On the figures… RPR 87 and Ts 72, that LTO run was also a career best. So, he’s looking progressive now. The yard are also going better, 2/12,2p in the last 14 days. And Ivory is 2/9 in Ascot 7f handicaps in recent years. The jockey has ridden a couple of winners here also.

He can be buzzy, although was more controlled LTO. There ins’t much pace on paper in here at all – just prominent racers. Hopefully he can sit prominently and settle. Joey may decide to go for it and settle him on the front end – not impossible. That wouldn’t be a bad move if they know he will see it out strongly. Good ground (which it is on the straight track from the 5f pole) should be fine. Any further rain would be a niggle but connections withdrew him on soft recently, and if he runs I can only assume they think it’s fine, no excuse.

He looked a couple of points too big

The dangers… money for Mottrib which would concern me, given it’s Varian/AA with a well bred 3YO. Still, his form is only so so and not much to write home about. LTO was woeful but maybe there was an excuse. If he could build on that Goodwood effort he’d go well, and maybe this stiff 7f will help him. He shapes like he will get 8f+ in time. Rodin is interesting back at 7f and shaped like a non-stayer at York, in a much hotter handicap than this.

Maybe those two will give me most to think about. I didn’t really like much else for one reason or another. But, it’s one of those races.

Hopefully the selection builds on LTO. He’ll be going very close if he does and is no 7s shot in this line up in my view.

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I will mention Angel Alexander in the 3.20 Haydock. I’ve had a nibble at 10s just in case the lack of headgear, the ground and the yard going slightly better has any impact on his form. And maybe not gunning him so hard on the front end. Along with the declining mark – possibly deliberate.  He does just look out of sorts and maybe that trip to Meydan has buggered him up – but he may have needed it at Ascot, he did far too much at Goodwood in 1st time headgear, on ground he wouldn’t have liked. And Chester he was drawn wide and went hard, trapped 3 wide most of the way, tailing off , in another new set of headgear. But then, he could just be out of form. Or they’ve been getting his mark down. Maybe all eyes on Ayr again in a few weeks time? I don’t know. It did look competitive although if he got back to the form of that Ayr win, they’d all be in trouble. He’s the one horse listed above not tipped, who’d annoy me if winning, but there wasn’t quite enough there to be confident. It may be typical of my form (although plenty running well) that he does just that, with my main three hopes floundering. Ah, the great game.

GL, Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. And for the second time: Friday win picks.

    3.40 Ascot – Look Closely – on a hat trick, trainer in form, Atzeni on board, course and distance winner, won in this class. 2 points win.

    4.50 Ascot – Tempus – looks better than a handicapper, trainer in form, won in this class, distance winner. 2 points win.

    Thursday brought a 9/4 > 6/4 winner and a loser.

    Good luck Martin

    1. Thanks Martin – yep some gremlins as back end migrates to new server I think, but i’m not the most technical and it goes over my head! But its in someones capable hands, just hoping it doesn’t disappear again!

  2. yesterdays c3+ list had 3 wins and 3 places from 7 races
    chelmsford aw had 3 wins and 9 places a little disappointing.
    my picks were even more disappointing but today is a new day.
    todaysc3+ video replay list
    THIRSK
    14:20 dream world / dawaaween / gale force maya
    15:30 ghaly / shelir / archaeology
    16:00 ispahan / zeeband / euro implosion
    ASCOT
    15:05 the whipmaster / derab / greatgadian / la barrosa
    15:40 entangling / on to victory / labeebb
    16:15 nicklaus / tulfarris / marronnier
    16:50 gin palace / walhaan / tempus
    HAYDOCK
    15:20 angel alexander / danzan
    16:55 tranchee / molls memory / ejtilaab
    KEMPTON
    18:50 tawahub / whisky n chips / eastern delight
    19:20 dance to paris / pianissimo
    my picks
    THE WHIPMASTER 40/1 E/W (3:05 ascot) lots of first timers from big yards but gary moore pulled one out the bag a few weeks ago with junkanoo for us. different circumstances today but my pick has had the benefit of a couple of unspectacular runs and the consensus suggests mr moores horses do tend to need a couple of runs so that box is ticked. lots of unknowns in the race and moore also has champagne piaf which is another 40/1 shot but i think that one may be destined the jumps at some point. definitely playing for a place which could turn out to be better value than the winner.
    GIN PALACE 6/1 (4:50 ascot) has had some solid runs this year including last time out which was a very good performance given his draw. gets into the race on bottom weight today and should have another big race today if again overcoming the draw.

    over in Ireland
    1:00 roses blue
    2:00 alexandra college
    2:35 barbados
    3:10 mere catherine

    kempton aw to follow
    as always good luck with your picks. 🙂

  3. Josh wasn’t ignoring your question but had a bit of a drama yesterday stupid dog swallowed a pebble and had to have emergency surgery, looks like he will be fine fingers crossed.
    I do log every bet i make but don’t have a seperate list for what i post, i know i should, so only have totals for all bets and that’s not much help as that’s a bit false as i had £2 win @ 280bfsp back in June.
    I will get my act together and start keeping proper records.
    just some silliness today.
    Ascot 4-50. Breden £1 ew @ 66-1
    and a 5p ew L15 at Thirsk
    2-20. Three Coins
    3-30. Byrons Choice
    4-00. The Navigator
    5-05. Dark Defender

    1. No problem! Hope the dog is ok, that doesn’t sound like much fun at all.

      Oh, well, you don’t need to keep records for my benefit, more for your own, but if you know where you are at any one point that’s the main thing. You have a very different approach from me, but is clearly one that brings you enjoyment etc and gives you a much greater chance of landing on 280/1 shots than I have! Many ways to play / enjoy / profit from this game.

      Gl , Josh

  4. Betfair exchange sp
    At the races website as stopped recording them
    Betfair use Timeform on their site and they only record bookmakers sp
    Anyone know where you can now get back dated betfair sp
    Many thanks
    Colin

    1. Hi Colin,

      Yep, you can get all the betfair exchange SP via the Timeform website…

      https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/

      There’s a ‘register’ link at the top – you can create a free account just to access, and then use the ‘Results’ tab, and go from there- usually updated a few hours after the results but certainly the next day, for BFSP and Place market also.

      Josh

    1. nice that jamie listens to us here on rtp .. straight as a dye !! 🙂
      wd jw 😉
      keeping da wolf from da door at the mo 🙂
      lgb

    1. I suspect Mike you’re far smarter than I an actually placed said bet! Damn. I did focus on their handicap stats above but did think to myself it would be typical for their non-handicappers to go well in that race, esp when they started to be nibbled. Nice to see Charlie have one go well again, has been quiet (although relative).
      Both of them so so good at settling horses over that CD in particular.
      Spencer was 0/12 in non handicaps but of course that’s much more down to the actual class/raw ability of the horse and a few of those will have been youngsters who he was educating no doubt/or not good enough.

      Anyway, glad you both read the musings and appear to have taken some action… 🙂
      Josh

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