Members Daily Post: 02/09/20 (complete)

Tipsx2 + write ups, Holding post

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(138 tips/19 wins/49 places (inc wins) /+63.6 points, advised/ +58.9 Betfair SP)

#1 – 5.00 Wolv – Swiss Pride – 1 point win – 13/2 (WH/BV/UniB) 2nd, -1

#1 – 5.35 – Wolv – Too Shy Shy – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/888) 15/2 (BV/BetF) 3rd, no excuse -1

that’s all for today, x2, as of 08,53, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.10 Ling – Melnikova (14/1< guide) H4 9/2 UP

4.10 Ling – Holwah (any, 9/2< best)  4/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sires

1.35 Gowran – Rocket Science (20/1< guide) 10/1 UP

3.00 Bath – Veleta (any) H2 10/3 WON 10/3>3/1 

Jim Crowley (any)

3.40 Ling – Asadjumeirah 9/2 UP

4.10 Ling – Holwah 4/1 UP

Jack Mitchell 

5.00 Wolvs – Araifjan (any) 10/1 WON 10/1> 12/1, 13.35 BFSP

7.15 Wolvs – Penkella (12/1< best) 100/1

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

5.00 Wolv – Swiss Pride (2nd run) H2 13/2 2nd 

5.35 Wolv – Lion Tower (1st run)  13/2 UP

5.35 Wolv – Too Shy Shy (2nd run) H2 17/2  3rd

 

6.Other/Updates

Please Note… the back end technical changes were not completed yesterday and the blog may be down at around 7pm this evening for a short time. Stage 1 of a complete redesign as the site has got a bit tired I think. 

*

Gary Moore... I have had my head stuck in HRB and I think i’ve found something for his jumpers. I’ll post that up this morning.

*

A sleeping giant awakes? Richard Fahey… by his standards he’s had a mediocre season so far, although it could mean he’s plenty of well handicapped horses to go to war with in the next couple of months… 17/197 this season, a 8.63% win SR, 26.4% win/place… all runners… that’s down on his 5 year average… 11.46% win sr, 31.43% win/place SR. Part of me thinks some of that may have been down to Paul Hanagans injury, having an impact on the track and maybe at home also. I suspect he sits on plenty and may help with race planning etc (well, ideal conditions etc). His win SR for Fahey is above Fahey’s overall average also, or has been in recent years. It could be though they’ve just had health issues or something else is up. Or just variance.

7 of those 17 winners have come in the last 7 days, Hanagan on two of them. Obviously Fahey runs a lot of horses but maybe some signs that a more consistent run is around the corner. But its good to see Paul back after that horrible injury, and his return may be the catalyst for a more productive autumn for the team. Time will tell.

*

The tips… write ups…

Swiss Pride – one last hurrah with this one, as i’ve one leg over the edge of the cliff and will no doubt end up at the bottom. I remain convinced he has a handicap in him from this mark and he deserves one given his AW consistency this season so far. The booking of The Doyler lured me in, given he’s the best jockey to have ridden him this season by some distance. He could make all the difference and he rides Wolvs so well… in the last 5 years… 54 rides / 22 wins/ 37 placed (inc wins) / +17 SP / AE 1.17/ IV 3.85.

Teal/Doyle are 2/6, 3p in the last 5 years also when teaming up, and the yard are going well.

The horse also steps back up to 7f which I think he may want now, especially when ridden off the pace, which from this draw he may have to be. It feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 4. Maybe that’s due to the number of times i’ve looked at him this season, especially after that decent claimer effort over this CD, which is when he first went into the notebook due to his sectionals. He would have won that if starting his challenge earlier, beating an 80s horse in the process. He’s stayed on the last twice over 6f to suggest he’s worth another go over 7f – only had one try and that was the running on claimer effort here a few starts back. Maybe this will be one run too many but I thought 13/2 offered a shade of value…

Especially as I don’t like the top 2 at the odds – maybe one of them will take it but they’ve got questions, although running ok and they are unexposed 3YOs from powerful yards. Still, I wouldn’t want to wade in at their prices. The fav got turned over at 2/5 LTO around here in a race which is now 0/8 since. Johnston’s still races too freely, keeps placing and bumping into one. Maybe he won’t bump into one today, but again, he looks short. You take those two out and the selection, on what they’ve done recently, is the best of the rest.

Money has come for Castle Quarter which is interesting – that would suggest he’s fit and ready to roll, on the back of another short break. He has the form to mix it if showing his best but still some questions there for a trainer who’s 2/74 in recent years – well, I think this horse is responsible for both those wins, so probably nothing in that stat. He’s on his way to halving in price and that is starting to look significant, although why you’d put a 5lb claimer on for a gamble always mystifies me, especially when he’s never ridden the horse or for the trainer. Strange. Although young Billy is well thought of as a potential star of the future.

Anyway, i’ll stick with Swiss Pride and while it may well be hurt pride, in I go. Again.

Oh.. pace… well he should slot in hopefully, although always a niggle stuck wide as that bend comes up pretty quickly over this CD. Franny will go forward, so may Tom Eaves, with Oisin tracking them (hopefully stuck wide!). Makin’s does front run but after the break, if he needs it, they may be more patient – or they’ll blast him out hard before fading. I wouldn’t mind if they did that.

*

Too Shy Shy … 

These connections like a bet and I wouldn’t be shocked if the odd marked account, or ‘deal’ to get on (although Star Sports guarantee to lay any owner’s bet up to a liability of 10k – i’ve yet to take them up on that offer with Super! Ahem). Hopefully the move is some of their money although it’s not that big a crash as yet – maybe the market did just cotton on to the fact 15/2+ looked big. That was overpriced, whatever she does here. Although the market may guide if she drifts again as per that Kempton effort…

She will try and lead but in any case should be front rank. I fancied her at Kempton where she drifted out to 18/1 and then was ridden so hard on the front end she was never going to get home. Interesting. Although in fairness if the jockey had in his mind that she had to lead, he would have hoped the other challenger would ease off at some point – he didn’t. Two of them went at it from flag fall. She did well to finish 4th. All of her races this season have worked out well. Three starts back she beat Mon Choix who’d go on to hack up twice on turf for Andrew Balding. Those Kempton/York races have produced 6 winners between them so far. Two of those in front (both 3YO for Haggas/Varian) at York have since won their next starts off 79 and 80. Solid form. That was a C4 and she drops back into a C5 here. And Hollie returns, 2/3 on the horse (all her wins to date) . It could also be the horse likes a bit of a break between her races.

Pace wise… she will try and lead and i’ll trust Hollie to get it right, and not get in a pace battle… she is electric from the gate and usually takes 2L out of them. Harbour Vision will be up there and Joe Fanning will want Lion Tower to start much sharper.

She’s one of those bets given the above that looked a no brainer at the price. She’s still open to improvement and I expect a bold show. I think 7f is fine as she shows plenty of pace.

Of the rest… the fav seemed short on what he’s done to date but given the connections/his profile, clearly no shock. But at 7/4 I could leave/take on.

Harbour Vision would be the main danger I suspect.

Do note that trainer/jockey combo… D Brown and Paul Mulrennan are 8/24, 13p, +29 Sp in the last year… and he’s looking like a go-to jockey for the yard, including on this horse LTO.

I’ll mention Lion Tower who I tipped LTO and he was awful – slow away, again, and never really going for all that Joe tried I think, for a time. I’m not sure he handled coming down that hill and probably hated the ground. (a great tip I hear you say!) He kept him in the soup at the top of the straight, up the middle, and let him coast home. A line through that. Even ignoring that run he still has questions but it could be he just doesn’t like the turf and we will see a different horse here today. The headgear comes off. You’d struggle to be confident though. He’d be the annoying one though. 6s didn’t feel generous but he’s getting to a ‘beer money’ price.

If the fav falters, those two could give me most to think about. But the selection has achieved a higher level of form than Harbour Vision, gets the 3YO/filly allowance, and there’s more to come.

Fingers crossed she makes all, and they can’t catch her.

GL, Josh

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Two for Wednesday:

    2.50 Uttoxeter, Gavrocheka – runs on at this distance, won in this class, a distance winner. 1 point each way.

    4.00 Bath, Colony Queen – steps up in distance here, won in this class, should be held up for a late finish, 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  2. nothing really tickles my fancy today so just 4 very speculative “oldie” longshots for very small stakes and a ew l15.
    Hexham 6-00. Apache Pilot 25-1 4p, all four wins and 11 places have come here , 4lb below lwm
    Uttox.
    1-15. Simply Lucky 40-1 4p
    2-50. Searching 40-1 5p
    3-20. De Plotting Shed 25-1

  3. yesterdays c3+ list managed just 2 places from the 2 races
    all weather list had 4 wins and 9 places including the c3 races which were all weather
    my pick. scampi finished a creditable 3rd.
    todays sole c3+ race.
    LINGFIELD
    14:10 folk dance / little becky
    todays all weather video replay list
    WOLVERHAMPTON
    16:30 desert vision / morjhana / thornaby flyer
    17:00 fresh show / gold zabeel / swiss pride
    17:35 lequinto / to shy shy / lead singer
    18:10 jungle inthebungle / maid millie / marvel
    18:45 quaraat / trilla in manilla / dana forever
    19:15 faisal / secret account / war cross
    19:45 final attack / mdina
    20:15 chosen star / critique
    20:45 lilypad / niklayeve / kaisan
    my picks
    THORNABY FLYER 80/1 e/w (4:30) in a race where there is little form to go by anything with a run is worth taking note. not done to much first two runs and a couple that also have runs on paper look to have better form. but as with these types of races its not unusual for an outsider to make the frame taking advantage of first timers inexperience. speculative yes and definitely place money we are playing for but it could end up a better return than the winner.

    over in ireland
    gowran park
    12:30 kailash
    13:00 maud gonne spirit
    13:35 rocket science

    as always good luck everyone. 🙂

Leave a Reply to Martin Colwell Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published.