Members Daily Post: 01/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(135 tips/18 wins/46 places (inc wins) /+60.6 points, advised/ +53.81 Betfair SP)

#1 – 3.00 Ripon – Mustaqbal – 1.5 points win – 4/1 (bet365/WH/betfS/PP) 7/2 (others) WON 4/1 > 9/2 (+6 points) 6.49 BFSP 

#2 – 5.45 Ham – Ugo Gregory – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365) 7/1 (WH/BV) UP -1

that’s all for tips today, #1 as of 08.02, #2 as of 08.47, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

5.45 Ham – Ugo Gregory (9/1<) H4 7/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best) 

1.15 Kemp – Swooping Eagle 8/1 UP

3.15 Kemp – Rajman (x2 angles) 7/1 3rd 

3.45 Kemp – Delilah Park H1 7/1 UP

Kevin Stott

5.15 Ham – Two Cop Bop (18/1<) H2 11/8 WON 11/8>11/10

7.45 Ham – Divina Gloria (18/1<) (x2 angles) 10/1 UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None on Tuesday (i’ll be posting quals from the Emma Lavelle autumn angle and the Twister angles, all found in ‘Free Reports & Systems’ tab) 

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips 

3.00 Ripon – Mustaqbal (2nd run) H4 4/1  WON 

4.35 Ripon – Reassurance (1st run) H3 5/1 WON (dead heat) 

4.50 Kemp – Caen Na Coille (1st run) H4 14/1 UP

 

6.Other/Updates

PLEASE NOTE…  the website may be down for a time from 7pm this evening for a short time while some back end changes take place.

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Tips write ups…

Mustaqbal – I thought this looked his for the taking if running as he did 8 days ago at Ayr – he tanked through that like a horse coming into prime form but the jockey had to sit and suffer on the rail for an age, shuffled back, before running on strongly. He now drops back in class into a weaker race and gets his preferred softer ground for the first time this season. He’d probably prefer it softer but it shouldn’t be an excuse and he’ll enjoy getting his toe in. He’s running much better this season than he did last, but maybe he was just stuck on too high a mark, aged 7. The season before that he won twice, easily, off 68 and 70 (-3lb claim). 63 today. Most of his races this season have worked out well enough and he does look primed to strike in what looks one of the weaker handicaps he’s contested.

The slight niggles come from his draw, although the stats for wide drawn over this CD are fine, arguably better than low drawn, and it should mean he doesn’t get boxed in the rail and at some point up the straight can angle out and get rolling. There’s also not much pace on paper in this – that does mean Callum can amble out I suspect and get a more prominent position if he wishes, before the bend approaches. Hopefully not getting stuck wide. He did ride him more prominent for his Carlisle win in 2018 so maybe he won’t ride his as cold as the last twice.

I thought this looked weak enough. The John Quinn horse is a danger, and may prefer this step back up in trip, although that’s open to debate. He can be ridden cold also and may get stuck behind horses in a race where they may not go quick enough. But, he should go well if building on his run LTO. Dreamseller is in fine form but another career high to overcome. He may still be progressing, although cut in the ground is a question for him and I thought that 36 day break was odd, although he’d been kept busy and maybe just freshened him up. He may go forward from his draw and we can track him. It did look to be between the top 3 in the market to my eyes and I think the selection may have more in hand than the other two, in these conditions. He can be tricky but should be going close here, if running as he did LTO.

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Ugo Gregory – hopefully I regret not putting an extra 1/2 point on him here but his price looked a few points too big in this line up. I’ll ignore his Wolvs run, his first on the AW, but he didn’t go too badly, i a race not run that quickly to the eye. But he was going forwards at the line under hands and heels, rather than falling out the back of the tv. His 4 turf runs before that, all at C4 (C5 today) suggest he retains ability and he could be about to strike. His Ripon return was solid, 3rd beaten 2 1/4 L off a 5lb higher mark than this. His Hamilton run was ok, York maybe not so much but Newmarket was decent, on ground he wouldn’t have enjoyed. He should relish these conditions, as evidenced by his wins last season and his Nottingham 4th in a big field, in heavy.

Everything screams a monster run to my eyes and he’s drawn middle, with the stalls up the centre – when it’s soft/heavy here I think you want to be nearer the standside, so he should have that option. While he can be ridden patiently, he can race up there also, and there’s some pace (although not loads) to track. I don’t think you’ll want to be too far back but he should keep going. He’s looking well handicapped.

Tim reaches for the 1st time Tongue Tie and I had a look at those stats…since start of 2017, all handicaps (flat/jumps/aw), 1st TT, 7/29, 15 places, +59 SP, +80 BFSP. That one may be worth saving for those of you with HRB or other software. So, hopefully that eeks out a bit more. This is the weakest turf handicap he’s raced in this season and he gets the services of Duran Fentiman who’s riding well/in form- 6/29, 7p the last 30 days, 2/8, 3p for Tim in the last 14. Easterby does well here with 40% winning/placing.

I expect a big run, and in a race where the others have enough questions. I’m not sure Quanah is the strongest of stayers over 6f, and in these conditions. I could have that wrong but I thought enough there to take on at his price. Lucky Man, Tommy G and Inexes have enough questions for me also, although all have the form/marks to get competitive. Maybe the soft ground will see Inexes in a better light. In any case, Ugo should run his race.

GL, Josh

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

28 Comments

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  • august round up for anyone who’s interesred
    MY PICK 49 bets / 5 wins /4 places / +14.8 to sp
    C3+ VIDEO REPLAY LIST 323 bets / 58 wins / +118.8 to sp
    c3+ definetly not for the faint hearted with that many bets. The my picks does look better to BOG prices i backed 2 of the winners at double the sp. but i still need to be more selective. i think i may limit the my selections to just 1 max per day.
    i wonder what september will bring…….. 🙂

    warren bottomley 31/08/20 7:39 PM Reply


    • Well you can certainly read a race Warren! Well done.

      Mark Curtis 31/08/20 9:20 PM Reply


    • Not got involved myself Warren but fair play because you must put some time in everyday great results

      Ryan Mercer 31/08/20 10:40 PM Reply


    • Hi Warren, very good set of figures and I hope it is justifying your time as you are putting tremendous efforts into it. Great summary

      Paul

      Paul E 01/09/20 9:21 AM Reply


    • They’re solid stats Warren, keep up the good work.
      Is that to industry SP? I’d at least record to BFSP if you’re not, esp the odds you’re playing at, as no doubt doing yourself a disservice there on the figures. Given the odds you’re generally playing at, it’s meant to be a bumpy ride, unavoidable. But you don’t need many falling in to do just fine.
      Josh

      Josh 01/09/20 10:11 AM Reply


      • Yes I’ve recorded them to sp. Harsh as the my picks would look much healthier but not everyone can get bog. So I thought this would be the fare way of recording them. And if they are doing well to sp those who can get bog would be doing a fare bit better. But it’s still early days. The winter months are coming. I’m gonna start recording and posting all weather cards. I know George and a few others are all weather fans so I’m hoping between us we can snag a few tasty priced winners. Yourself and lots of others have got the jumps covered and my approach i don’t think works as effective over the jumps. Should be a fine winter. 🙂

        warren Bottomley 01/09/20 10:59 AM Reply


        • Oh yep, not recording to BOG is fine/admirable and given current climate the right way I think.

          But, if recording to industry SP, I meant recording instead to Betfair Starting Price. They’re two different things, and the latter is a price everyone can get on the exchange, generally, and given odds you play at I suspect BFSP is far better than Industry SP. You should be recording to BFSP rather than SP in my view – and seeing a bigger profit haul is always better for the mind. Unless when you say ‘SP’ you do actually mean ‘Betfair Starting Price’ …

          Josh

          Josh 01/09/20 11:03 AM Reply


    • YEP BRILLIANT YOUNG WB !
      as you know i’ve been along side you since the beginning .. and you have certainly kept me on the straight and narrow of winner finding .. superb advices and really appreciated by me and all the other RTP Villagers 🙂
      Although i missed out the last couple of weeks of August due to my day job going pectorals up …and all associated grief attached .. but back online these last few days ..so onwards and upwards my friend ! 🙂 ….. will try and see what the ovens are doing very soon .. but like you i need ….. but i don’t know how ???? ……
      What is the best way to narrow my selections down at the moment .. ony va .. great work !!

      cheers
      lgb
      a.k.a. village idiot 😉

      GEORGE B 01/09/20 10:43 AM Reply


      • As the all weather is gonna be the focus in the cold months maybe where we match on selections in races might be a way of narrowing it down somewhat. Might be something worth looking at 🙁

        warren Bottomley 01/09/20 11:02 AM Reply


        • There won’t be much difference in the aw season,not too many rock up to southwell in December.The big frustration with turf racing is when your price maker/s is withdrawn,because of going changes and your 16/1 doesn’t look such a great bet at 8’s,if your making selections the night before or early morning.The horses run more often,so can be fairly confident handicapper has them fairly right.The older horses with course form win in their turn,just matter of catching them at the right time.

          I have backed Excellent Team at 7.30 NA at 14/1

          I had given it a 10% chance of winning and it is 9-11 now so it is priced about right and not really backable at the current price

          gerard michael flynn 01/09/20 12:31 PM Reply


  • Let’s hope for another day like yesterday, my picks were pretty poor overall but i did pick Shady McCoy which was in Josh’s angles so added extra 50% to stake, the services i use came good with my 2 biggest bets scoring 1pt ew @15-2 and 0.75 pt ew @10-1, a few nice priced places thrown into the mix saw me up 23 pts on the day 🙂 a few more like that would be very nice indeed.

    martin whittle 01/09/20 2:54 AM Reply


  • quick look at Ripon before bye byes ,
    2-00. Gulf of Poets now well below lwm and might be worth another go.
    2-30. Dawn Breaking has won 2 since the break and not disgraced lto (6/14) when beaten 2.5l by Amadeus Grey, has won over a mile in heavy so should get home alright.
    3-00. Can’t see past Mustaqbal
    4-00. Question marks against most near the top of the market which has left me with Quick Look ticks most of the boxes and has won twice in soft over 6f, danger could be I Am A Dreamer from the other side of the draw.

    martin whittle 01/09/20 3:24 AM Reply


  • No joy on Monday – 2 poor runs!

    August finished + 5 points (July +9, June +12). So steady but unspectacular. I need to average +8.5 points per month to hit the 100 points profit in a year, so on target so far.

    Nothing from me for Tuesday.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 01/09/20 10:05 AM Reply


    • Keep on keeping on Martin, nothing wrong at all with slow and steady! Some would say it’s preferred, and I wouldn’t have minded a +5 August 🙂 GL
      Josh

      Josh 01/09/20 10:08 AM Reply


    • solid Martin as usual !

      GEORGE B 01/09/20 10:44 AM Reply


  • 2 bets today on the AW for anyone interested
    Kempton
    3.45 Badri fancy this one strongly and at 13/2, one negative is the draw.
    4.50 Dreamweaver do not know why this one is taking a walk in the market 8/1 is terrific value

    Warren all credit to you for not using BOG, I stopped using it some time ago and on BFSP most now use 2% rather than 5% and not everyone can take this consession with betfair so is this the new equvilant to BOG with tipsters ? who knows
    Colin

    cleafe 01/09/20 12:10 PM Reply


    • Gl with the AW pokes Colin.

      Betfair charges etc… it was my understanding that all new and existing customers (bar those on premium charge which is a small % of pros I assume) had access to the ‘my rewards’ feature, and thus ability to select the basic package and the 2% commission. But I could be wrong on that, from info I can find that appears to be the case for the majority, hence why i suspect anyone declaring to BFSP uses 2%. If you bet plenty on the exchanges that options appears to be best.

      Josh

      Josh 01/09/20 12:21 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh
        had to ring them up about it sometime ago and the customer service guy said that they only invite so many for the 2% my response then will take my business elsewhere where 2% is box standard, he put me on 2% straight away, funny enough Shell who invested £2000 with me to put her bets on betfair, my son sorted the computer out so it comes from a different server address whatever, since July 10th been paying 5%, she is coming round tomorrow to email them over the 2%.
        for anyone would not use betfair offers, for the 2% is a far better deal and betfair do not want to give it away to every customer.
        Colin

        cleafe 01/09/20 2:09 PM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ list ha 3 winners and 4 places from the 6 races
    my picks. tinto ran a shocker nuff said……….
    todays small c3+ video replay list.
    KEMPTON
    15:45 clog maker / badri / deililah park
    16:15 al dawodiya / breath of joy / kondratiev wave

    KEMPTON A.W (including above)
    13:15 rodrigo diaz / alvaro / rays the one
    13:45 exmoor beast / keep it brief / helian
    14:15 scampi / local law / uncle bryn
    14:45 publicist / high applause / twentysharesofgrey
    15:15 saucy encore / pheonix star / rajamn
    16:50 arabian warrior / caen na coille
    my picks
    SCAMPI 4/1 (2:15) a shorty for me to start the month off. finished fifth when unfancied on his debut in a decent race of which lone eagle which he finished behind has come out and won and love is golden which he beat came out and won yesterday and looked to be a decent time in the soft. he looks to be bread for a 1m or further. hopefully should give a good account of himself and justify my rare visit to the top of the market.

    as always good luck today 🙂

    warren bottomley 01/09/20 12:15 PM Reply


  • That’s a nice 1.5pt winner – and it drifted a tad. Well judged.

    Chris 01/09/20 3:05 PM Reply


    • thanks Chris, a confidence booster if nothing else, it’s been one of those periods, and i’ve had a few this season! Would be welcome to kick on again past the season high but time will tell! It may be too much to ask for the double…

      Josh 01/09/20 3:09 PM Reply


      • Just one a day, Josh, we don’t want to get greedy 🙂

        Chris 01/09/20 3:11 PM Reply


  • mustaqabally …………….. OH IT IS GOOD TO BE BACK ON LINE AGAIN ! 🙂
    WD JW .. Brilliant aanananalasisss .. as ever .. always constructive
    nice from wb as well
    thks
    lgb
    slowly coming out of his mire 🙂

    GEORGE B 01/09/20 3:05 PM Reply


    • Cheers GB… I thought of you when writing that 1st tongue tie stat for the 2nd one to come!

      Josh 01/09/20 3:08 PM Reply


      • haha .. glad to know i am in your thoughts 🙂 i am just compiling my next lot of certain sires and their progeny who react well to first time headgear and in which race code ….. looks very interesting at the moment especially when you merge the trainers using the same headgear on their horses as well … never ending these quests of mine !! 🙂

        keep up the good work .. loving every minute of it 🙂
        lgb
        in love with the game !!

        GEORGE B 01/09/20 3:16 PM Reply


  • well done martin/josh awesome stuff. 🙂

    warren bottomley 01/09/20 3:08 PM Reply


  • HAMILTON through the card.
    16:40 cottam lane / burning cash
    17:15 two cop bop / dan de light
    17:45 quannah / tommy g / major pusey
    18:15 granit city doc / our girl shiela
    16:45 al khabeer /will sommers
    19:15 ayr poet / flying moon / retirement beckons / my valentino
    17:45 sienna dream / kayewhykelly / antico lady

    warren bottomley 01/09/20 3:51 PM Reply


  • 400 Huge gamble on Rock Sound started this morning, I’m told. Failed to get a run 2f out, one to note?

    Chris 01/09/20 4:05 PM Reply


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