Daily Members Post: 30/08/20 (complete)

Tipsx2 + write ups, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(135 tips/18 wins/46 places (inc wins) /+60.6 points, advised/ +53.81 Betfair SP)

#1 – 3.25 Yarm – Casina Di Notte – 1 point win – 13/2 (WH/BV) 6/1 (gen) UP -1

#2 – 3.00 Good – Overwrite – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365/BV) 9/2 (gen) UP, -1

That’s all for today, #1 as of 9am, #2 as of 09.43. Write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.50 Good – Ice Sprite (10/1< guide) H1 Evens  UP

2.25 Good – Atalantas Boy (16/1<) 4/1 WON 4/1 > 6/1 

2.50 Yarm – Late Arrival (12/1< guide) H3 11/4 2nd 

3.00 Good – Native Tribe (any) (x3 angles) H4 9/4 WON 9/4 > 11/4 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding 

3.35 Good – Cloak Of Spirits (20/1< guide) 13/2

Jim Crowley (any)

3.00 Good – Al Madhar H3 6/1 UP

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

2.50 Yarm – Greek Oasis (10/1< best) 22/1 UP

3.25 Yarm – Purgatory (10/1< best) 10/3 3rd

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.00 Good – Overwrite (2nd run) H1 5/1 UP

Hot Form 

3.25 Yarm – Casina Di Notte (2nd run) H4  13/2 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

Casina Di Notte – he entered the ‘hot form’ notebook after his seasonal return here two starts back, a handicap which has worked out very well for the grade… 6/25,11p since. He ran a cracker LTO at Newbury having drifted to a big price, and with a slightly more experienced pilot (or one who could ride a finish) may well have won that race, having also had to come from well off the pace. He arrives in form and the yard are in form, Botti 3/15,4p in the last 14 days. He seemingly goes well for claiming riders and this jockey is doing ok, esp on the AW. He has ridden the horse twice also. The horse is just 2/9,5p on the flat (0/14 on the AW) , 2/4,3p in Yarmouth handicaps and both his wins have come over 8f. The ground is a question but he’s placed twice on it in his maiden/novice days, which may be deceptive but at 13/2 I thought worth chancing as that looked a bit big, and the ground may dry out a tad.

Jack M may well beat me on Purgatory, which may be an aptly named winner in the midst of another iffy spell, but I didn’t think 7/2 was overpriced as such, especially for one usually held up and on the back of that mediocre run LTO. The 53 day break may suggest he had a problem there and the market support may suggest they’ve put it right. Conditions are fine and he bolted up here on his final start last season, in heavy, off 4lb lower. Potential saver material in what seemed an open race, and no doubt he’ll now do me on the line.

The pace should come from Daddy’s Daughter, Global Esteem can be up there, and Casina can track the pace. There’s a strong wind today so cover may be no bad thing, and i’m not sure this will set up a closer.

Overwrite – this will be the third time i’ve backed/tipped him this season, maybe one last hurrah! I should no doubt leave him alone but he has the best handicap form in this race by a street and everything else has questions for me. I suppose he does also but it’s meant to be drying out and i’m still not convinced he doesn’t stay, especially as Joe will try and dictate, which may depend if Adam Kirby is happy to just track, and if the others run their usual styles. Maybe Buick will be more aggressive on his in blinkers.

This is just such an easier assignment than most of his runs this season and he shouldn’t need to use up as much gas as he has on some of them. He looks likely to run his race, he tries and bagging the far rail may help. I just thought this race was all about whether he stays – mixed messages on that but there was just enough there to suggest he’s worth a go over 10f again, in this sort of race, with excuses on previous tries at the trip. If he does stay he’s the one to beat and will make 5s or so look big.

I was also lured in due the rest having questions, although a few unexposed ones and if mine falls in a hole obviously something else will take it… Fiji’s had 50 days off and his two best runs have been on the AW, so a question there in context of price, ground an unknown. Native Tribe gets blinkers for a reason and they need to work. His win was by a nose and he really didn’t want to go past/battle on his last start. He’s clearly talented and probably well handicapped but 9/4 is short for 1st blinkers – well, as is 4s arguably given how Moon King seemingly hated them yesterday. Doh. He may travel like the winner but if he has to scrap it may be interesting.

Al Madhar has been hanging on all his runs and doesn’t look the most straightforward. I was deliberating him at 6s but that last run was poor and i’m not sure distance was the issue, but maybe it was. It’s Good To Laugh will relish conditions but he only has a Ffos Las maiden win to his name and plenty of 2nds. Maybe he simply keeps bumping into one and I assume the fast ground was the excuse LTO. On what they’ve done this season, given the ground, he probably is the main danger.

Fingers crossed one of them gets the job done, in what hasn’t been a great month on multiple fronts.

GL Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. yesterdays c3+ list had 6 wins and 4 places
    my picks didnt do so great but will show a profit for the month so not to bad.
    todays c3 + video replay list
    GOODWOOD
    13:50 ice sprite / urban artist
    14:25 chairmanoftheboard / louie de palma / desert safari
    15:00 its good to laugh / al madhar
    15:35 cloak of spirits / snazzy jazzy
    my picks
    CLOAK OF SPIRITS (3:35) 7/1 3rd in a group 3 in heavy going when last seen. 2nd in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, 5th in the Coronation Stakes, 4 lengths behind LOVE in the 1000 Guineas, 3rd in the Shadwell Rockfel Stakes. a nearly horse maybe but at some point she is gonna be first past the post and i think the bookies are being generous at 7/1.
    today could be that day

    as always good luck 🙂

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