Daily Members Post: 29/08/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(133 tips/18 wins/46 places (inc wins) /+62.6 points, advised/ +55.81 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.05 Wind – Beauty Choice – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP 9/2

#2 – 3.20 Newm – Moon King – 1 point win – 4/1 (bet365/WH/BetfS/PP) UP

that’s all for today, x2, as of 09.01, write ups at bottom of page… don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page to see any new content/additions/readers’ comments etc 

 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.05 Wind – Beauty Choice (14/1< guide) 8/1 UP

2.10 Wind – Maurimo (any)

4.05 Red – Devils Angel (9/1<)

4.10 Good – Dragons Voice (16/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’

4.10 Good – Western Duke (9/1<) 11/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

4.30 Newm – Amir Kabir (any) H1 10/3 WON 20p R4… 2.64/1 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

2.05 Newm – Jash (any)

Ryan Moore (any)

2.25 Good – Breath of Air H4 6/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

2.05 Newm – Burmese Waltz (2nd run) UP

2.25 Good – Cardsharp (3rd run) 9/1 3rd

2.45 Newm – Dancinginthewoods (2nd run) 15/2

3.20 Newm – Moon King (1st run) H4 4/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

Beauty Choice – one of those tricky days ahead given the going, which can always throw up strange results – well, plenty that have never raced in soft/heavy may handle it just fine, but it’s an educated guessing game as to whether they will. I’ve got two on side from above who are at least proven in conditions so I won’t be using that as an excuse. Charlie Fellowes’ charge looked worth chancing at 8s I thought. I’ve found his mark of 79 hard to weigh up but such is the ground at Windsor I suspect an ability to handle conditions / attitude/jockeyship may be far more important today than whether you’re well in or not. He’s only 3 and there should be more to come, especially in a bog. They appear to be conditions he thrives in. His 2nd at Donny last Oct is turning out to be an ok maiden and it was very heavy that day. He responded to pressure and stayed on well enough to the line. That was over 7f and they didn’t go that quick, but the evidence suggest a soft/heavy 6f may be ideal, as he showed two starts back at Chepstow. That was only a novice again but the 3rd has since won and he showed a likeable attitude. That Haydock run 3 starts back is working out well also – again he travelled well, may have wanted it softer, but also may not have fully stayed. Although that was his first run of the season and may well have needed it. He travels strongly through his races and does knuckle down. Given his profile i’ll assume that the firm ground was the problem last time out, but again he travelled smoothly before failing to pick up/not put down on it. In handicaps, this is also his first run in 3YO+ races.

Fellowes does ok in handicaps here… 4/19, 6p +11, and that improves to 3/7,4p in class 4s.

Stevie D is up at Redcar riding two for Charlie, Harley at Windsor riding two. I don’t know if the former had the choice as he’s riding for the same owner and he hasn’t ridden this one on his last four starts. His rides up there may be worth a glance.

It looks open enough, a few of them have form in testing ground. But I don’t think anything looks thrown in.

Of the rest… there’s been some money for Indian Creak – whether he will handle the ground i’ve no idea, but someone thinks he will.

SDS is here today for his retainer, with 4 rides. That could be significant but hopefully he’s here for some of the others! The races he’s won haven’t worked out great but conditions won’t be a problem.

You could make a case for a few in here but I thought the selection looked a couple of points too big.

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Moon King – a recent losing tip and one of those price points I find tricky but I decided to go with him – conditions are fine – well he may relish the mud better than anything else in here and won’t mind if there’s no further rain or it buckets down. They reach for the blinkers which is interesting – in truth at this price point that’s risky but given how he can go through his races, I can see why they’d try them. His general level of form is very solid, especially in a the context of this race and if he runs up to his best, on what he’s achieved in conditions such as this, he’d be the one to beat. The fact both Harry B and Rossa Ryan are at Goodwood may be some indication either to his chance or the chance of their mounts, but Beckett has booked Kingscote who’s won on the horse before, and they do well when teaming up at the Newmarket tracks… 3/11,5p last 5 years, +27. In a race that is there to be dictated on the front end, given the jockey and the blinkers, it could be they switch things up and try a more aggressive approach. If he could get out and grab the stand side rail, even better. I thought there was just enough there at 4s.

4s may look too short if the fav handles the ground – that is the question for Believe In Love, an unknown. And those recent staying efforts should catch up with her at some point, and i’m also not sure what she beat LTO. I had a pick in that who’s still running. I’m not sure Fox Vardy wants it soft and in any case Moon King has him held on that York effort last October but of course that’s assuming they run the same race. But 7/2 looks short for him. Moon King has Mondain beat on a couple of pieces of form also, and i’m not sure he wants it soft either.

I’d like to think it’s between Moon King and the fav, and as such 4s is worth a go. In 1st blinkers the race can be over early if it sparks them up too much, especially over this trip – but they should help make him travel better, if working, and if controlled through the race he will go close. They may have freshened him up after LTO, that race coming on the back of two tough efforts. It could be that 1m6f is as far as he wants to go also. Fingers crossed.

I should mention Burmese Waltz...only as i’ve thrown beer money at her at 20s or so… a LTO losing tip (and at Ascot) where she was very disappointing, but her Ascot effort still lingers in the memory. I’ve no idea if she’ll handle the ground and even if she does, she’s plenty to find, but stranger things have happened. Too much guessing for tipping purposes but I couldn’t resist a ‘just in case’ couple of quid.

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GL with any bets, as always.

Josh

p.s if you’ve missed my last two emails they’ve been packed with plenty of snippets and worth a flick through…

Email 1 Read HERE>>>

Email 2 Read HERE>>> 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • An observation on Charlie Fellows hcp runners.
    He seems to win in batches.
    Early Aug 3 from 4
    19 to 26 July 4 from 13
    5 to 9 July 2 from 3
    26 to 28 June 2 from 6.
    18 to 21 June 5 from 11
    etc etc.
    He’s currently on a 14 hcp losers.
    What I’m trying to say is. When he has a winner.. there’s usually another not far behind.

    compound dave 28/08/20 8:38 PM Reply


  • Two non runners on Friday!

    Two for Saturday:

    2.25 Goodwood, Alemaratalyoum – goes on the ground, course winner. 1 point each way.

    7.15 Redcar, Mayfair Pompette – up in distance, highly rated by trainer (the Honorable Charlie Fellowes), likes to run on late. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 28/08/20 9:04 PM Reply


  • With the ground being described as Soft at various venues and Heavy at Goodwood no selections…..definitely autumn weather so unless there is a late Indian summer, the good or good to firm ground for the flat is not likely to prevail at the back end of the flat so, except for rare occasions, if the going improves, that is it for the flat for me. Will look at the all weather in better quality racing over the winter period…enjoy the rest of the flat season and no doubt the National Hunt enthusiasts on the site will be looking forwards in anticipation to the coming season……at least with all the rain around there is no chance the going will be over watered or am I being too optimistic!!! All the best with whatever you are backing in the coming months…

    silver 29/08/20 9:29 AM Reply


    • Hi Silver

      I (and no doubt my pal GB) will be doubling down on the AW come October so I hope you will be posting your helpful time analysis.

      All the best

      Mark Curtis 29/08/20 10:45 AM Reply


      • Thanks Mark…will always post if there is a good angle regarding speed, sires etc….on the AW front sires that handle tapeta, especially at Newcastle, are particular noteworthy as Josh pointed out earlier….the latter track is tricky regarding draw etc., but sires that go well on the surface that like a less hard surface seem to perform better…same logic at Southwell as that is a specialist rack regarding going so despite lower grade racing hoping that being more selective …less is more….the winter will prove profitable….will have to see….hope George and yourself are in good heart, looking forwards to George firing up the AW oven…….catch you later…… all the best

        silver 29/08/20 10:55 AM Reply


        • a/w could be interesting and exciting. i will be switching over once the jumps start. my approach doesn’t work so well with the jumps.

          Warren Bottomley 29/08/20 11:59 AM Reply


          • Hope so Warren…looking forwards to your “lists” on the AW…hopefully will be as good and as interesting as the turf…..the jumps are an enigma to me to be honest…prefer chasers to hurdles but flat form and pedigree on the flat (inc AW)my preference as being simple minded myself is less complicated for me to get a handle on!!

            silver 29/08/20 12:08 PM Reply


          • I’m with you Warren, my methods simply don’t work over jumps so looking forward to the “proper” AW, and to seeing your shortlists 🙂

            Mark Curtis 29/08/20 5:06 PM Reply


    • I cannot wait for the jumps to return !!!!!!!!!!!

      Ryan Mercer 29/08/20 11:05 AM Reply


  • I’m on the scrounge!
    A few weeks ago I think someone..josh I think.. put up a Gary Moore angle on the flat, nice winner on Thurs is there one for the jumps, chases and hurdles.?
    I see he has had 2 winners yesterday one at 9/1 both handicap hurdles.

    Any info from the HRB magic box would be appreciated.

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 29/08/20 10:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike… I have just seen that –

      Andrew M mentioned an angle at the time of original discussion (when Warren had just tipped his 50s Goodwood winner I think!) Andrews words…

      This angle seems promising
      Gary Moore handicaps 2015 onwards on turf
      8 furlongs or further, jockey has had 1,2 or 3 rides on horse previously and is the same jockey as last time out.
      horse age 3 or 4
      results are 17 / 55 +£77 SP +£105 BSP
      This didn’t pick yesterdays 50/1 but still worth keeping an eye on
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      I’ve been meaning to dive into his stats and will take a look on Monday (for ‘micro monday) – I need to switch my research attention/time to the winter Jumps ‘trainer profiles’ but i’ll see if I can find anything. If you remember, post a reminder comment on Monday’s post! But i’ve jotted it down.

      Josh

      Josh 29/08/20 10:49 AM Reply


      • could get the forecast later at redcar in the 6:15

        warren bottomley 29/08/20 11:06 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Thanks for your reply but that’s the angle for flat you gave before ..now updated..and looks good. It was the jumps angle I was looking for with Gary Moore? If you could oblige I would be most grateful.

        Mike

        Michael Dennis 29/08/20 12:17 PM Reply


        • Hmm, I don’t recall any jumps angle but it has been a while since I was in jumps mode! I’ve no idea, can’t seem to find anything from searching the comments/posts and nothing I can see saved in my HRb accounts!
          I’ll take a fresh look Monday.
          Josh

          Josh 29/08/20 12:22 PM Reply


      • Josh, I’ve been impressed by the current form of the Tony Carroll yard (and I know Colin Leafe likes him) so add him to your diary for future research please

        Chris 29/08/20 12:24 PM Reply


        • Hi Chris
          Tony Carroll yes great respect for this honest and straight forward trainer, had a 10% share with his stable, on my first visit had a good chat and he told me to turn up anytime that i wished bar sunday of course no appointment necessary.
          Stable normally comes good Jan/Feb he could well have changed for it was 2009 when i started going down, he used to like Doncaster for a punt flat or NH and they can be large prices, if he sends one to Goodwood or any grade 1 coarse in a handicap used to be worth taking note, recall he had the Victoria hc winner one year at 33/1
          Trains at Evesham and anyone wanting a share or own a horse outright then you cannot go far wrong with
          Tony.

          cleafe 29/08/20 1:40 PM Reply


  • yesterday the c3+list had the winner of both races and 1 place.
    todays busy c3+ video replay list
    NEWMARKET
    12:20 commonsensical / lost in space
    14:05 summerghand / watan / ventura rebel
    14:45 epic endeavour / abstemious
    15:20 moon king / amazing red / mondain
    GOODWOOD
    13:50 pomelo / Seattle rock
    14:25 miltown star / magical wish / cold stare
    15:00 celtic art
    15:35 urban icon / century dream
    16:45 junkanoo / lord clenaghcastle
    WINDSOR
    14:40 desert encounter / le don de vie
    15:15 sky defender / extra elusive
    REDCAR
    18:15 scottish summit / mosakhar / garden oasis

    my picks
    SEATTLE ROCK 9/1 (goodwood 1:50) improving maiden with form on the softer stuff and with happy romance now a non runner her chances have improved alot. pomelo may be a good animal but the ground today may be the great leveller. 9/1 is good value with know surface form.

    MILTOWN STAR 10/1 (goodwood 2:25) been off the track for a while but his last run which was in france on the heavy was a good one. if he’s fit enough he’s good enough to take todays race.

    LORD CLENAGHCASTE 20/1 (goodwood 4:45) moore has 2 in the race the other being junkanoo which technically was my first ever my pick as it was the first i did a write up on and won at 50/1 that day, hes not that price today but the other lord clenaghcastle is a decent price. probably needed the run last time out after missing a whole year. before that had a decent record. a quick turn around could see him up there. i dont think trainer would run him if he didnt think he had a chance. an obvious forecast in the making maybe !!!!!
    MOSAKHAR 20/1 E/W (redcar 6:15) lightly run 4yr old that has good a/w form especially southwell. interesting turf debut given condition when a few in this race have been pulled out.

    as always good luck with your picks 🙂

    warren. bottomlley 29/08/20 11:02 AM Reply


    • I had a look at Lord C. but judged that he’d have a better chance (nto?) dropped in grade.
      I backed Milltown last night.

      Chris 29/08/20 12:27 PM Reply


    • Well done Warren, 2.25 G. Had a touch on both 1st and 2nd and the forecast. Keep up the good tipping.

      Mike

      Michael Dennis 29/08/20 2:34 PM Reply


    • Good afternoon, Warren

      Just wondering.. how do you place your bets?. Do you do singles for each of your picks.. even when there’s two or three in same race..

      Michael 29/08/20 3:30 PM Reply


  • i think ill have and e/w go on bama lama 12:35 windsor 75/1 to 4 places with 365.

    warren bottomley 29/08/20 12:17 PM Reply


    • I backed Bama for 4th @10/1 and to my great surprise and pleasure, I collected. As soon as I saw it was by Equiano I had to have a bet.

      Chris 29/08/20 12:47 PM Reply


    • job done for the day 16/1 for the place. sit back and relax….. 🙂

      warren.bottomley 29/08/20 12:49 PM Reply


  • Hi Warren

    I have followed your selections with interest over the past few weeks, (missed your 50/1) and with some profit inc some forecasts.
    I was wondering do you have any stats ie, handicaps v non hcps or any other angles ?

    Look forward with interest.

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 29/08/20 1:02 PM Reply


    • hi michael.
      no angles everything i post is based on watching the horses for example todays c3+ list there are 12 races ive watched at least the last run of every horse in those race without exception (that is important). after that form, breeding, speed ratings anything that sticks out and sometimes just why is the horse in this race. as for stats i think for me the higher class races are proving best but i’m hoping the a/w over the winter will prove profitable

      warren bottomley 29/08/20 1:18 PM Reply


      • Thanks warren,
        I was more interested in results as to whether your method is more profitable with hcps against non hcps.?

        Mike

        Michael Dennis 29/08/20 1:34 PM Reply


        • both are in profit at the moment hcp is +36 and non hcps +76 for this month so far

          warren bottomley 29/08/20 1:43 PM Reply


          • Thanks Warren. Very encouraging. The odd fc helps as well.

            Mike

            Michael Dennis 29/08/20 3:52 PM Reply


  • another e/w to 4 places durabella 50/1 with 365 1:15 goodwood

    warren bottomley 29/08/20 1:10 PM Reply


  • Last night I backed Go Bob Go 3.50W 33/1 ew no particular reason only Bob is one of my golf mates.
    To my surprise with only 1 nr it has now come down to 8/1 was as low as 6/1. 365 offered me a 100% profit on my return (small stakes) now out to 60%. Is this a job horse or did 365 fall asleep? At 1am it was 6/1. Hmmm?

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 29/08/20 1:46 PM Reply


  • Seeing how Beckett’s horses are running today then Moon King has no chance of winning today. Disappointing as he’s a system bet for me and I hate that when you know a horse is going to lose but you have to back it!
    Awful day so far and it’s only going to get a lot worse….turning off the TV and opening the fridge door.

    Chris Albin 29/08/20 2:35 PM Reply


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