Daily Members Post: 27/08/20 (Guest Tip)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

(131 tips/18 wins/46 places (inc wins) /+64.6 points, advised/ +57.81 Betfair SP)

A Guest Tip… None from me again on Thursday, but something to muse over…

3.00 Beverley – MUSHARRIF – 1 point EW – (5 places)

This is from the in-form Gary B over at Always Back Winners, the only tipping service I currently follow with my own cash in addition to my own content of course, along with a good chunk of you who appear to be enjoying the ride. He his a -29 point losing run but soon put that behind with a flurry of winners..  he hit +52 points this season (1 point EW) then went down to +22.5 points… 4 of his next 9 tips then won, only 2 unplaced… and now he’s up to a season high of +61.8 points… he’ll be flying past me soon if I’m not careful! Hopefully today.

For those on his 1k to 10k challenge, the starting bank of 1k, betting 1.25% Each-Way… is now on £1849.85. (stakes now £23.12 EW, current ROI over 28%)

That’s pretty damn good from an average 6-7 bets per week, on the flat turf and winter all-weather, with a focus on C3 and below. Gary does know his flat handicaps.

You can get a special RTP discount with 80% off your first month, so dip your toe in and see if it’s for you…

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his write up…

MUSHARRIF has served us well over the past couple of seasons and has looked as good as ever on last two runs when not exactly given a plum draw.

He’s now on his last winning mark and another who has spent a season getting down 6lb but does have a number of post August wins to his name to potentially land one this term.

Today he gets a nice low draw and one of a few who like it here looks to have a cracking chance dropped back in grade from those past two efforts.

It’s taken a while for Declan Carroll’s yard to show some form and whilst not winning many, his sprinters have gone well of late. Indeed Shawaamekh was a consideration and tracker going in the (14.30) but despite running well from a poor draw at Chester LTO, has to do it again all around the outside in that one.

Let’s hope we’re on the correct one 🙂

Zak Wheatley has done all his winning for us on this charge and again is doing the steering and and am taking the best 8/1 with SkyBet with FIVE paying slots this morning.

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2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.00 Bev – Balancing Act (9/1<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’

4.35 Bev – Champagne Fountain (9/1<) 50/1 ‘DNQ’

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Kevin Stott 

2.30 Bev – The Great Heir  (16/1<)

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.30 Bev – Tarboosh (1st run) 5/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Who’s hot and who’s not? 

I thought i’d take a look at Flat (turf/AW) trainers who’ve sent out at least 100 runners since racing resumed.

I’ll start with the ‘cold’ trainers, all runners… the ‘bottom’ 5…

  • Ruth Carr: 2/120, 9p
  • Amanda Perrett (Mrs A Perrett): 3/110, 25p
  • Mick Easterby: 3/124, 17p
  • David Loughnane: 5/105, 16p
  • Stuart Williams: 6/159, 28p

Whether those 5 are going to have a big burst before the season is out, we shall see. Some may well have health issues in their string or they had masses of badly handicapped horses, although those stats are for all runners. It’s not a given that they will burst into life and for some it may just go down as an atrocious season. But, they’re worth keeping an eye on for any green shoots of recovery.

Hot trainers? These are simply the top 5 on win strike rate, with 100+ runners… some familiar names…

  • Sir Mark Prescott: 29/108, 47p (26.85% win SR) (43.52% win/place SR)
  • C Appleby: 39/152, 75 (25.66%) (49.43 % win/place SR)
  • J Gosden: 79/329, 152p (24.01 %) (46.2%)
  • W Haggas: 70/318, 148p (22.01%) (46.54%)
  • R Charlton: 28/133, 49p (21.05%) (36.84%)

Obviously you can’t back them blind but they’d be nothing wrong with focusing on those 5 as a ‘way in’. I suspect a few, or maybe all, will keep those win SRs up for a good while yet, especially given the place SR.

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Today… stats pointers of interest…

I’m going to focus on the 3.30 Beverley…a listed contest… two horses hit a few ‘report’ angles within the Geegeez racecard and may be worth a closer look…

Major Jumbo

  • Trainer Stats Course 365 Days: 5/16, 10p +13
  • Jockey Stats Course 365 Days: 7/26, 12p, +6
  • Trainer Jockey 14 & 30 Day: 3/11, 4p… 8/26, 14p +74
  • Trainer/Jockey Course 365 Days: 4/10, 6p +11
  • Trainer/Jokey Course 5 years: 10/48, 23p +13
  • Trainer/Jockey 1 year: 31/130, 54p, +130

So, some solid stats foundations there. The horse is in 1st blinkers which is interesting – if they spark him up, not impossible he could blast out and get the rail.

In any case, those stats for Kevin Ryan and Kevin Stott may be useful for today’s Beverley card and the future…

Tarboosh

  • Trainer stats 14 Days: 6/18, 9p +13 (in form!)
  • Trainer stats Course 365 Days: 5/21, 9p, -3
  • Horses for Courses: 2/5, 2p

The horse… a 50s poke for us 8 days ago at York where he needed taking into the race for longer, and a headwind to slow the leader down, rather than a tailwind to push him! But he ran his race. He has a contest like this in him and may have some pace to sit behind, but could need luck in running. And that effort may have taken it out of him although it could be argued that’s the best piece of recent form in the race.

I’ll leave you to have a deeper look if you wish. Listed contests wouldn’t be my natural hunting ground but again, some useful pointers there for the future – Midgley’s string are clearly in fine form.

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Elsewhere…

. I’ll also be cheering on Blessed To Empress in the 1.40 Chelm, who I used to be involved with. Sadly she’s giving the impression she no longer wishes to be a racehorse. Amy and the team have tried all sorts to re-light the fire and now she returns to her favourite track with Tom M in the plate – I hope she blasts out and makes all for her current owners as they deserve some cheer but it’s very much a question of what frame of mind she’s in. At her best she’d demolish that opposition, but she hasn’t shown her best for a while. Depending on what she does it could be her last race but hopefully gives the team something to cheer. 

 

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Have a great day,

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • A non runner and a loser on Wednesday.

    5.25 Lingfield, Platinum Prince – back in distance, a three year old and so plenty of time to improve given the right conditions, should be prominent, draw OK.

    6.00 Lingfield, Spanish Kiss – handicap debut, up in distance, lightly raced three year old. 1 point each way.

    Looking at Blessed To Empress’s race, it looks the type of race that she could double in price from her current 8/1 as I type. Some horses with her profile do that. Then it would be worth supporting her on the chance that she finds her form.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 26/08/20 8:50 PM Reply


    • Yep, she may drift out. No one, not even the trainer, knows what version of her is showing up at the moment. They’ve tried all sorts at home and she’s been working well I believe, but not showing it on the track – travelling well for a long way before giving up really. She has no excuse today, when there may have been for most runs this season. We shall see, she could bolt up or tail off, no one knows with her at moment sadly. But hopefully for her current owners she can bring some cheer.
      Josh

      Josh 27/08/20 10:32 AM Reply


      • The money came for her and she got it done. I was not on as too short for me.

        A good effort though and I look forward to her going off 12/1 plus somewhere.

        Martin Colwell 27/08/20 1:50 PM Reply


        • The money somewhat irrelevant! All those ‘in the know’ literally had no idea what version of her was turning up, but if she was going to win it was going to be there, and like that. Was all about what she did when Tom got stuck in 2f out, thankfully she was enjoying herself, and up against dross which helped. Nice to see her keep going.

          Josh 27/08/20 1:52 PM Reply


  • The Great Heir NR

    Chris 27/08/20 8:29 AM Reply


  • Beverley thought’s,
    2-30. I backed Zip 2 days ago and got some place money so will have another go even though the price seems to have gone, Hayadh 25-1 is drawn 1 and i’ve got this little niggle that it might run well so just a £1 ew.
    3-00. Balancing Act from trainer profiles looks a fair bet , i like Airglow and Gamesome and have had small ew’s on all 3.
    after those 2 races all i kept coming up with was very speculative longshots
    3-30. Alpha Delphini
    4-35. Champagne Fountain
    i’ll stick those 2 in with Gamesome and Hayadh in a 10p ew L15 and pray to the betting gods 🙂

    martin whittle 27/08/20 9:18 AM Reply


    • more longshot lunacy this time at Sedgefield,
      2-20. Ballycrystal
      2-50. Scoop The Pot
      3-25. Joie De Vivre (maybe not so loony)
      4-00. Amilliontimes
      10p ew L15

      martin whittle 27/08/20 11:35 AM Reply


    • Zip poxy 2nd again.

      martin whittle 27/08/20 2:35 PM Reply


  • yesterdays through the card at lingfield had 5 winners highlight being GORDONSTOUN 18/1 and 7 places
    my pick CUBAN CIGAR broke well moved over to the rail looked comfortable at one point but didnt quicken when asked but looked to stay on at the end. i think the unknown (going) got him on this occasion. still there is a win in him i think. one for another day……
    todays c3+ video replay list
    CHELMSFORD
    14:40 el ghazwani / gold town
    BEVERLEY
    14:30 le chiffre / harrison point / shawaamekh
    15:30 major jumbo / tarboosh / keep busy
    16:05 hms president / throne hall

    LINGFIELD AW through the card list
    15:20 tangfantic / mirror kisses
    15:55 sky storm / lerryn lass / premier power
    16:25 dromquinna
    16:55 purple paady / the warior / sea fox
    17:25 tanqeeb / oblate / azets
    18:00 escalade / raventree / spanish city
    18:30 bailarico / walk it talk it / bird for life
    19:00 mercers / little floozie / illustrious spirit
    19:30 at your service / dreamboat annie / global acclamation

    my picks
    THE WARRIOR 11/1 (4:55) lingfield. C/D winner earlier this year but looked to have lost his way. signs of improvement last time out over 7f when not getting out of the stalls to well and giving himself to much to do at this course. back at 1m today and off winning mark. likes to be held up, there is pace in the race but not to much. drawn up the middle which shouldn’t be an issue. no reason for him not to be up there if he is good enough today.

    over in ireland
    BELLEWSTOWN
    6:15 eshtiya

    as always good today everyone.

    warren bottomley 27/08/20 12:10 PM Reply


  • I thought she would need another Blessed furlong 🙁

    Chris 27/08/20 1:47 PM Reply


  • GO ON BLESSED!!! Congrats all! Must be the fresh Chelmsford air here!!

    Doug Ockwell 27/08/20 2:01 PM Reply


    • nice one got matched @ 11-0 on bf 🙂

      martin whittle 27/08/20 2:34 PM Reply


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