Daily Members Post: 24/08/20 (complete)

Tips x2, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(131 tips/18 wins/46 places (inc wins) /+64.6 points, advised/ +57.81 Betfair SP)

#1 – 2.10 Ayr – Be Proud – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/BV/BetF) 3rd, 9/2. -1

#2 – 2.40 Ayr – Scots Sonnet – 1 point win – 8/1 (WH) 15/2 (gen) UP 9/2, -1

that’s all for today, as of 08.47, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

7.20 Bath – Al Jawhra (8/1<) 6/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Kevin Stott 

2.10 Ayr – Be Proud H4 13/2 3rd 9/2 

2.40 Ayr – Scots Sonnet 15/2 UP 9/2

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catcher

1.40 Ayr – Soaring Star (1st run) 2/1 WON 2/1> Evens

Losing Tips 

5.25 Ayr – Mustaqbal (1st run) 10/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

Be Proud – the first of two for the Stott angle above and the first of two for Big Jim – there are some signs that his yard could be about to burst into life… 2/18, 5p the last 14 days and plenty have been running well at big odds. They were 0/23, 3p in the 16 days before that. In saying that, Be Proud hasn’t run a bad race this season as yet and a repeat of his last two runs should put him bang there again. I didn’t think he had an excuse today, given the pace set up. He’s in and around the main pace – Mr Wagu, Barbarella may go forward, as may Nubough and Erich Bloch dropped back in trip. He should get a lead into the race anyway and at 13/2 gen I was happy to roll the dice.

Two starts back he wasn’t beaten far here by Mr Wagu. That one made all whereas Be Proud got squeezed at the start and was a couple of lengths of the main pack after 1/2f. He did well to get so close and had he not been squeezed, he may well have won. Hopefully Mr Wagu doesn’t get such a freebie on the front this time. His run LTO was decent considering the trip he had – it looked like nearside was riding faster but he got stuck out on the wing, no cover. He made some sort of effort and wasn’t beaten far, but he ended up in the middle of the track which was far from ideal. Still, that was a solid race for the grade… horses subsequently 5/19,8p. On paper that now looks a deeper race than this. Kevin Stott rides this track well and he also does well when riding a horse more patiently. I suspect he will try and sit mid division and if he can keep tabs on the pace, should be coming with a late rattle. Probably into an agonising 2nd as the line comes too soon, but he’s just about worth chancing at the price, which does look a couple of points too big in this line up I thought.

The dangers… well maybe it’s open but it isn’t as deep on paper as Be Prouds last race here. Erich Bloch is interesting because of his position in the market and I think the Fell team like a bet/gamble/plot. This one drops back to 6f and i’m not sure he’s shaped like that’s what he wants so far this season, but it is ‘doing something different’. I’ll mention Nubough 12s- he’s was well punted LTO and he’s being nibbled at again. It could suggest he’s showing plenty at home but as yet not replicating it on track. He’s down in class (first run in a 5 handicap) and back to 6f, a trip which has looked on the sharp side at times – but maybe they will go hard enough here. He’s looking well handicapped off 71, given his form for previous connections  in the low 80s (inc placed efforts in ok southern C3s/4s) and he hasn’t had too many runs (only his 11th handicap start). They will find the key at some point and he could be thrown in when they do, and maybe it will be today, but he’s one to keep an eye on given his mark/previous form. He does, or did, have ability.

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Scots Sonnet – this looks an open race and having watched his last two runs back I couldn’t leave him at this price. It’s low grade stuff and he’s yet to win a race but Jim knows the family very well, he’s related to some ok sorts, and he’s clearly needed plenty of time to grow/mature, along with the odd problem along the way no doubt. His form the last twice has indicated he could be getting his act together. He’s travelled strongly in those race, responded for pressure, before then fading. Two starts back was a C4 though, up against some ok sorts. He didn’t run too badly, possibly outclassed and then outstayed. LTO was over 9f in soft where again he ran well, responding to pressure. He is a strong traveller and this 7f could suit more, especially if Kevin can get out and into a prominent position – that’s a tricky draw but not impossible and there’s not any habitual front runners in this. Plenty of ‘pace pushers’ but hopefully won’t have to use up much gas to be up there. Hopefully he doesn’t decide to drop him out, coming from the back over this CD is a challenge and I don’t think they’ll go overly hard. He should know that if he’s done his homework, and of course the horse is here to put his best foot forward. While Phil Denis is ok, Stott is a jockey upgrade. He’s ridden him once and can hopefully illicit a bit more today. It could be the horse is just soft/doesn’t put it in, and the trip is irrelevant, but this could be ideal on the way he’s shaped the last twice and he could leave this lowly mark behind.

The dangers… well Inductive is the right fav and he should go very well. He has been consistent, which is half the battle at this level. But that win was in 1st blinkers and he only ran so so last time, although that could have been due to the ground. He did come from the clouds for that win and may need a stronger pace. However that race has worked out well and he did do it snugly come the line. As 7/2 favs go in races like this he does look solid but if it clicks for mine today, he could have more in hand.

GL with any bets – Warren has been having a fine time of things with his new approach, decent winners galore in recent weeks. Top work. And plenty of gems from others in the comments as always.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. On Saturday – Verdana Blue got going late and finished third for a place but Dark Vision looked as if he did not fancy it again and never showed. Perhaps eh needs big fields?? Anyway a small loss on the day.

    An uninspiring Monday steers me toward two over the jumps that are win bets.

    3.50 Southwell, Ultimate Getaway – trainer and jockey in form, gets weight here, consistent in this class. 2 points win.
    5.00 Southwell, Jamacho – won well last time out, trainer in decent form. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    1. GL Martin,

      Yep, he’s always been a bit of a character hasn’t he? Although in fairness to him he did go into that York race on the back of four big efforts this season, on far from ideal ground? and possibly over a trip he doesn’t fully see out as strongly as others. Although it looks like he’s just run flat there, before any of the race conditions were necessarily a question. I’m still not 100% sure what the ground was at various times! Sticky at times I think, some cut, but given how well Verdana ran, it can’t have been too bad as she’s best on good+ and has run a stormer, just needed more pace up top given how that played out.
      Josh

      1. Third place was fair for Verdana I think. The winner may be a group horse and the second did well to stay with it.
        Perhaps the champion hurdle awaits for Verdana Blue? Maybe we will be able to attend to watch???

  2. With no rain f/c for Ayr today and a couple a fancy wanting soft ground i’m downgrading all bets and just having £2 ew on them all, £1 ew for longshots in brackets.
    Ayr.
    1-10. Voodoo Whodoo
    2-10. Rum Runner ( galloway hills,queen of kalahari)
    2-40. Great Colaci (jacob black)
    3-10. Sienna Dream (lucky violet)
    3-40. Motahaasen
    4-15. Allux Boy
    5-25. Ulshaw Bridge
    just over £80 up yesterday, winners @ 11-1,14-1 and 11-2 place

    1. just 1 to add at Southwell
      4-25. Ennistown 18-1, £2 ew if 8 stay in. thought this was overpriced , has a good 3lb claimer on.

  3. yesterdays c3+ list 5 races, 4 winner and 2 places
    of the rest there were 12 races and we had 4 winner and 12 places.
    my picks. first off JAVELIN i was still up around 2am and it still hadn’t past the post
    MAAMORA did the business although i did think she would just place and it would work out better value than the winner. a few managed to get 40’s i got 33/1 and it finished 14/1sp. it does make it all worthwhile when you know someone other than yourself has benefited from it. so thanks again everyone for the comments.

    todays list. no c3+ today but as today is the start of my official 2 week holiday that didnt happen, im stuck in cloudy coventry. but it means i can go through the cards on most days for the next 2 weeks.
    AYR
    13:10 go go luna / full of sass / spartakos
    13:40 soaring star / amniarix / gumra
    14:10 where’s mick / wadi al salaam / chookie dunedin
    14:40 strongsay / inductive / great colaci
    15:10 al mansoura / big city / equidae
    15:40 little ted / flames of york / key spirit
    16:15 one last hug / rosemay / evolutionary
    16:50 tiritomba / finally mine / manzo duro
    17:25 eagle court / ulshaw bridge / hajjam
    18:00 ayr poet / broctune red / talk now

    my picks.
    nothing here i wanna stick my head on the block for but i will mention a few that i noted down while going through the races. i did find this meeting today very tricky. it may be down at the lower level but the races are very competitive. GO GO LUNA 1:10 sneaks in at a low weight and has been running with a few that have done a little bit better for themselves. AMNIARIX 1:40 could be a useful animal and a 780 mile round trip for connections in lambourne. FLAMES OF YORK 3:40 been hanging around with group horses could be a nice e/w and finally BROCTUNE RED 6:00 looks like a 1m could be the trip it needs. i will probably have a small nibble on a couple of these.
    these as well as the list are not tips they are my personal observations than thoughs that hopefully someone with a better eye can gleam something from.
    bath meeting will follow.

    as always good luck 🙂

    1. Hi Warren, I’ve been watching your selections with interest for a few weeks now and you certainly seem to get some lovely priced winners. I decided to have a go at your picks yesterday (good time to start) with a lovely 33/1 winner!! I will certainly follow your picks from here on in and may have a stab at the whole lot at some point. Thankyou for sharing your thoughts and knowledge with us all and keep up the good work.
      Kind regards, Tom

      1. thanks tom for your comment.
        yes it was one of the better days ive had. the my picks it seems from what i can see do a whole lot better with the higher class races especially listed and group races also it seem horses with overseas form have done well so far for me. of the lower end stuff are very hit and miss and it need work so i would always caution them. as for the list. your a brave man to go all in lol . the c3+ stuff is in profit but its not for the faint hearted and to be honest i dont even back them all i try and use them as josh would say a way in.
        but hopefully along the way we will find some more over time. along with the top man there is some seriously good picks posted by lots of people on RTP everyday. it really is a unique and great place to be. 🙂

        1. Warren

          Thanks again for your posts, I managed to pick out 3 rev fc’s best one being the 5.25 at ayr. Small steps but it is profit on the day. Hope you have a profitable holiday if you keep going like this It makes watching the racing very enjoyable.

          Mike

  4. bath trough the card. again tricky meeting.
    15:35 infinate beauty / eagles dare / batton
    16:10 junvieve / zeimaam / captain claret
    16:40 emerald fox / heleta / jungle boogaloo
    17:15 hlaitian / my tyrell / song of the isle
    17:50 tilsworth rose / poppy jag / soverign state
    18:20 passional / georgette / she strides on
    18:50 ridgeway / crystal pegasus / grand deed
    19:20 lyrical ballad / maries gem / al jawhra
    19:50 song of the summer / rare glam / fox shinji

    my picks
    SONG OF THE SUMMER 25/1 E/W (7:50) that overseas form rears its head again. this time not in the same league as the others we have in the past few weeks. she has shown very little over in france and now bought back to the uk. but those races have had a better grade of horse in them than she is meeting today. add that to a trainer and jocky combo that a 25/43% win/place figures and she is technically unexposed over here compared with the field i think a place is not impossible.

    good luck everyone. 🙂

  5. Great stuff over the past few days Warren…..love reading your lists, comments and tips even if I do not back them….enriches the blog with your insights….agree with your comments about the better class of race being more predictable as the horses run more consistently and no one is messing around to get their horses well handicapped….some do run with future races in mind but think this happens more in the better grade maiden races where trainers are focusing on getting a run into a horse with an eye on future races where the prize money is worth putting the horse all in, that is why I prefer weight for age races in better grades as hdcp races have the disadvantage of the official handicap assessor getting involved……enjoy your break from your “proper” job and look forward to your future posts…all the best

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