Daily Members Post: 23/08/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(129 tips/18 wins/45 places (inc wins) /+66.6 points, advised/ +59.81 Betfair SP)

# 1- 5.40 Wolvs – Reassurance1.5 point win – 8/1 (WH) 15/2 (gen) UP 9/2

That’s all for today, as of 09.55, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.30 Sand – Davydenko (14/1< guide) 8/1

2.30 Sand – High End (10/1<) 10/1

2.30 Sand – Victory Chime (16/1<) H2 9/2

4.50 Sand – Angel Fairy (10/1< guide) 3/1

5.20 Sand – Kaloor (16/1<) 7/1

5.20 Sand – Young Merlin (any) (x2 angles) 15/2

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Straight Track Specialists 

2.00 Sand – Mountain Peak (any) H1

Jack Mitchell 

3.30 Wolv – Bravo Faisal (10/1< best) (x2 angles) 10/1

5.10 Wolv – Swan River (any) (x3 angles) H3 11/4

Ryan Moore

3.05 Sand – Quadrilateral 11/8

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.30 Wolv – One Hart (1st run since tipped) H3 11/2

5.20 Sand – Calculation (1st run) 11/2

5.20 Sand – Kaloor (2nd run) 7/1

5.40 Wolv – Reassurance (1st run) H2 15/2 

 

5.Other/Updates

Write up…

Reassurance – this is a better sort of race/selection to have ‘maximum’ (1.5 points) confidence in than those competitive York handicaps I think! 15/2 just seems massive, especially as it’s a race lacking much pace on paper with only her and Tin Fandango (drawn 11) who generally go forward. Plenty in here are usually held up so with any luck David hits the front at some point, winds it up and away she goes. I had a nibble at her LTO at big odds. In hindsight that was silly given the oppo but I thought she got a poor ride there. Although obviously it didn’t cost her the win. All she does is stay and I think you just have to get after her early. She tries, responds to pressure and bar at Newcastle, hasn’t run a bad race yet this season. That Beverley C5 had a median OR of 70, that’s vs 54 today in this C6. It’s quite the class drop really and she was in and around 70 horses there, staying on again at the line having been outpaced/classed at the top of the straight. The winner was 79, 2nd 70. The 6th has since come out and won off 67.  She has course form, having made her seasonal return here, running well. They went slow there, she was held onto, had to challenge wide around the field, momentarily threatened, before plugging on. That race has produced a few winners as has her Thirsk win, which looks very solid form in the context of this race. I don’t think stamina is a problem and if she repeats that run, she wins this I think.

The rest.. well they’ve all got questions to answer I think and I don’t really fear much. Maybe Lake Shore Drive – he has a decent record fresh, although his last run was after 584 days off, and he’s since had 179 days off again. He’s clearly had issues/is difficult to train but if he was A1, he could be closing on me up the straight. Interesting to note, for the future, that Johnny Farrelly and Stevie D are 6/21,8p, +79 SP when teaming up here in last 5 years. Hopefully they don’t add to that today!

But, I genuinely think this is all about whether mine runs her race and even just repeats LTO, and certainly that Thirsk run. From what we know on paper, 15/2 is just a silly price to my eyes, whatever she does.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • I just wanted to thank everyone for their contributions on here. It has led to a profitable York for me. Wednesday was a small loss. There were a lot of pointers towards Montatham on Thursday, which i was fortunate to spot early and get on at 15/2. The comments and pointers on Friday suggested a very small lucky 63 on Jim Crowley was the way to go. This proved very lucrative! I stayed calm for Saturday with just a few low level bets but Lucander meant it was a profitable day Thanks everyone, good team effort, I’ve enjoyed the learning experience and keep up the good shared info.

    Chris Marshall 22/08/20 8:44 PM Reply


    • Always pleasing to read comments like that Chris. Well done on having a decent week.
      Josh

      Josh 23/08/20 10:22 AM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ list had 5 winners and 11 place efforts
    todays c3+ video replay list
    SANDOWN
    14:00 blue de vega / dave dexter / benny and the jets
    14:30 muraad / hyanna / victory chime
    15:05 maamora / onassis / quadrilateral
    15:40 dinoo / etonian / dubai fountain
    17:20 yellow tiger / calculation / seinesational

    the rest of the sandown card
    13:25 maximal / mithras / latest generation
    16:15 future vision / dandy’s derrier
    16:50 east end girl / lightness / angel fairy

    WOLVERHAMTON all weather. all weather will probably be my bread and butter in the cold months so will see how it goes with the lists.
    13:20 ready freddie go / black sparrow / miss fernada
    13:55 captain ryan / wild flower / lethal blast
    14:25 hard solution / knockabout queen / wade’s magic
    14:55 wrath of hector / javelin / blazing hot
    15:30 beeceepee/ one hart / quick recap
    16:05 rockesbury / air of york / christmas night
    16:40 pink jazz / lamorna / smart connection
    17:10 swan river / richard r h b / my brother mike
    17:40 reassurance / blue beirut / tin fandango
    my picks
    MAAMORA 33/1 E/W sandown 3:05. a few of these have question marks against them including the favourite who hasn’t lived up to her 2 year old form. with that in mind and without setting the world alight over in France maamora put two solid efforts in group 2 company. we may be only playing for a place at best but she comes from a top yard and connections and they could of just kept racing her in France. !!! the horses with french form have served us well over the last couple of weeks.
    JAVELIN 12/1 2:55 wolverhampton. the winner slipped the field and won comfortably in her last race but she came from a long way back and finished with a great turn of speed to finish second. shes carrying less weight today her rating hasn’t gone up for that run and im hoping with a more prominent run and the turn of speed she showed she should be up there today.

    over in Ireland
    NAAS
    1:50 baranija
    2:20 tandem
    3:20 kastasa

    hope eveyone has a great day 🙂

    warren bottomley 23/08/20 5:21 AM Reply


    • Thanks Warren got 40s.

      Mike

      Michael Dennis 23/08/20 3:11 PM Reply


      • thats awesome michael glad someone else got something out of it.
        sweaty palms thought she might get caught.

        Warren Bottomley 23/08/20 3:15 PM Reply


        • Fantastic again Warren. I got 33s. Cheers !

          Aidan Trimble 23/08/20 4:12 PM Reply


    • Wow, Warren! Superb pick!

      Doug Ockwell 23/08/20 3:14 PM Reply


    • Also got 40’s, thanks Warren great pick.

      Adam S 23/08/20 4:34 PM Reply


    • great pick there Warren, wish i had taken notice 🙂 still i’ve had a couple myself so all’s good.

      martin whittle 23/08/20 5:10 PM Reply


      • Thanks again Warren backed all 3 in the 5.20 S and got the exacta. Made it a good for me, many thanks.

        Mike

        Michael Dennis 23/08/20 5:27 PM Reply


  • Poor day yesterday but up on the week so can’t complain, just a few biggies to small stakes today
    Sandown.
    2-00. Leodis Dream
    2-30. Data Protection
    5-20. Fire Jet, Kaloor
    Naas
    2-20. Tandem, Road To Dubai
    2-50. I’ll have a little dabble on the Karl Burke pair Inhaler and Rebel At Dawn but on paper it does look to be between Devious Company and Monaasib .
    looks like a pretty good card at Ayr tomorrow as long as there’s not to many n/r’s and i have my eye on a couple.
    GL all if your having a go today.

    martin whittle 23/08/20 8:16 AM Reply


    • should never have a second look it’s probably going to cost me a few quid. todays bets;
      Sandown.
      2-30. Data Protection £2 ew @ 14-1 (L15)
      5-20. Fire Jet £1 ew @ 16-1, Kaloor £4 ew @ 7-1 (L15)
      Naas.
      2-20. Tandem£2 ew @18-1, Road To Dubai £1 ew @28-1
      2-50. Inhaler £1 EW :@28-1 ,Rebel At Dawn £1 EW @ 33-1 Devious Company £4 win @11-4, Monaasib£2 ew @11-2
      Cartmel.
      2-15. King Alfonso £4 ew @11-1 (L15)
      Wolves.
      5-10. Swan River £5 win @ 3-1 (last of free bets)
      5-40. Reassurance £3 ew @7-1 (L15)

      martin whittle 23/08/20 12:49 PM Reply


      • nice return on data protection martin.

        warren bottomley 23/08/20 2:40 PM Reply


        • first 2 up on my 10p ew L15 their offering me £83 to cash out, think i’ll let them go because if Kaloor comes in it will all be on Josh’s tip for a roofs worth of cash and if it loses i’ll still be living under a tarpaulin this winter so no pressure 🙂

          martin whittle 23/08/20 5:04 PM Reply


          • Oh well next time maybe 🙂

            martin whittle 23/08/20 5:48 PM Reply


  • Josh
    I will have a Rev fc on your 2 at Wol.

    Good luck.

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 23/08/20 10:34 AM Reply


  • 2.30 Sandown
    Anything could win this. (But I’ve got to have a go. I have no choice, it’s in my genes 🙂 )
    Fav looks strong. Form/owner/trainer/jockey. But first go at 10F.

    Sir Michael Stoute has run twelve horses in this race, winning two, and another four have placed. (50%Pl)
    So my £5 EW goes on DAVYDENKO. Won four from five last season. This season!, nothing from two.

    Sir Michael says “I’m not having that”
    So, his bollicks have been taken off, and a visor has been put on.

    I’m pinning my hopes on one stat,
    Sir Michael Stoute first time VISOR last two years. 8 from 16, 50%.
    17/2 bet365. ITV offer.

    compound dave 23/08/20 10:51 AM Reply


  • My Lucky 31 for the day. No golf today so more time.

    1.25 S 2nd fav
    3.05 S Quadrilateral
    3.40 S Fav
    5.20 S Gumball
    4.20 C The Black Squirrel

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 23/08/20 12:55 PM Reply


  • Would it be possible for someone to tell me the stats from your HRB or other “Magic Box”

    Ben Haslam training for JP McManus horses chasers or hurdlers please,

    Thanks in advance

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 23/08/20 4:59 PM Reply


    • Hi Michael

      Since 2015

      Hurdle 12/106, 30p -33pts to SP / +18pts BFSP A/E 0.97

      Chase 18/142, 31p +58pts to SP / +119pts BFSP A/E 1.17

      Joe H 24/08/20 7:51 AM Reply


      • That doesn’t include yesterday’s winner. Also the figures improve for hcap chases.

        Joe H 24/08/20 7:55 AM Reply


        • Joe H

          Many thanks for your reply with the info. It was mentioned on itv yesterday that he gets a lot of problem horses form JP and gets them winning again.

          Thanks again.

          Mike

          Michael Dennis 24/08/20 8:52 AM Reply


  • thanks everyone one for the comments. im glad a few of you had a nibble. makes it worthwhile putting the list up. 🙂

    warren bottomley 23/08/20 10:12 PM Reply


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