Daily Members Post: 22/08/20 (complete)

Quals… no tips

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(128 tips/18 wins/45 places (inc wins) /+68.1 points, advised/ +61.31 Betfair SP)

NONE on Saturday. 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.05 Sand – Galactic Glow (16/1<) 22/1 ‘DNQ’

2.05 Sand – Luigi Vampa (16/1<) H3 8/1 UP

2.25 York – A Star Above (12/1< guide)  12/1 UP

2.25 York – Favorite Moon (12/1< guide) H4 3/1 UP

2.25 York – Fishable (9/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’

2.40 Sand – Repaupo (any, 20/1< best) 14/1 UP

3.15 Sand – First Winter (7/1<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’ WON 10/1> 7/1 

3.15 Sand – Makram (any) (x2 angles) H4 9/1 UP

3.40- York – Pablo Escobar (13/2<) H1 10/1 ‘DNQ’ (ignore odds caps for ‘H’ strategy) UP

3.40 York – El Misk (any, 20/1< best) 

3.40 York – Glencadam Glory (9/1<) 33/1 ‘DNQ’ 2nd

4.40 York – Lucander (16/1<) 16/1 WON 16/1 > 10/1 

5.10 York – Sunday Sovereign (9/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

3.00 York – Threat (10/1< guide) 8/1 UP

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

4.20 Chelm – Temple Bruer

5.25 Chelm – Villains Voice

7.55 Chelm – Full Intention

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

5.25 Chelm – Swiss Pride (1st run since tipped) H2

7.25 Chelm –

  • Cardsharp (2nd run)
  • Straight Right (1srt run)
  • Vale Of Kent (2nd run)

 

5.Other/Updates

Sat’s York Stats Pointers/Starting Points HERE>>>

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. A 9/4 winner and places at 7/1 and 8/1 on Friday and so a decent profit.

    Two for Saturday:

    1.50 York, Dark Vision – getting the hang of things now, class winner and a course winner. 1 point each way.

    3.40 York, Verdana Blue – Hendo has Ryan Moore on board here, he’s not here just for a day out, well handicapped on the flat. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  2. 1:50 York DARK VISION 5/1
    If you back 3,4,5 yr olds, you would have won 20 of the last 22 races.
    Nothing above an SP of 8/1 has won, in those 22 races.

    If we take out Lord glitters (Won this in 2018) and Zabeel prince because of age.
    Were left with 4 under or near 8/1
    Dark vision. Pogo, epic hero and possibly Miss Oconner.

    If I fancied Montatham on Thursday. I’ve got to fancy Dark vision today.
    He beat Montatham in the hunt cup. Pogo 3rd. (has another crack)

    He has since won a listed race at ponty, narrowly beating Berringer (also has another crack)
    He has won or been 2nd in three recent hot races and won another.

    The ground is an unknown if it is g/s.
    According to HRB stats, Godolphin have had only FOUR runners in this race.
    Won it in 2012, 2013 and 2016. 3rd in 2015.
    I can see him being backed into a short price.

  3. Karl Burke sends 2 over to Naas on sunday for the 2.50 Ballyhane stakes,Inhaler and Rebel at Dawn,it would seem to be tilting at windmills he is,but he has an excellent record at the track 3-3.they may be overlooked by the market and at 25/1 or so may be a bit of value

  4. 4 bets for me today all 0.5 pt ew.
    Uttoxeter.
    2-45. Gris De Pron
    4-25. Hepijue
    York.
    1-50. Dark Vision
    3-00. Threat
    a couple in the 2-25 for loose change Fishable and Aurthurian Fable
    write up’s in morning time permitting.

    1. Sandown for ITV7,
      2-40. Enigmatic ( Gin Palace close 2nd)( Dolphin Vista silly longshot)
      3-15. Zegalo
      3-55. Dream World

  5. yesterdays c3+ list had 3 winners and 7 places.
    my picks. stratum gave a small profit 20/1 finishing second
    today’s c3+ video replay list
    YORK
    13:50 pogo / epic hero / lord glitters
    14:25 a star above / midnight legact / mambo nights / dancing approach
    15:00 escobar / one master / beat le bon
    15:40 verdana blue / monica sheriff / fujaira prince / pablo escobarr
    16:10 acklam express / nomadic empire / blackberry
    16:40 sinjari / maydanny / derevo
    17:10 meraas / sampers seven / live in the moment
    SANDOWN
    14:05 brilliant light / tenbury wells / new chapter
    14:40 gin palace / barossa red / tukhoom
    15:15 jean baptiste / makram / grove ferry
    CHELMSFORD
    18:55 master of the stars / moqtal / red october
    19:25 society lion / afraid of nothing / boccaccio / admirality
    my picks
    DANCING APPROACH E/W 28/1 (york 2:25) she has had a couple of of nice wins. last time out at goodwood she hung to left but when got to the rail finished well. handles the going. hopefully new trip will suit. the biggest negative is the draw which i dont think is ideal but its not a sprint race so there is plenty of time to get position. sneaking into the race with no weight at all i think she is overpriced and has a good each way chance especially with the extra places on offer with some bookmakers.

    over in ireland
    curragh
    2:00 abstract
    2:35 baseman
    3:10 spanish tenor
    3:45 palifico
    4:15 haparanda
    5:15 bella regina

    over the sticks
    uttoxeter
    12:30 bit on the side
    3:20 drumcliff
    4:25 one forty seven

    as always good luck and be careful its a saturday……… 🙂

    1. Pivoine’s chance may have been marred by the showery weather.
      Dash of Spice has attracted money at long odds since last night.
      Kingbrook drifter, the others steady.

  6. Hi Josh, From your trainer profile list today, i like
    205 San. Luigi Vampa
    225 Yor. Favourite Moon
    315 San. Makram

    I like Menuisier at Sandown, seems like a target track for him, but he is not 0/6 in last 14 days as geegeez would have you believe, he is having a load of runners in France, as are more and more trainers to seek out the better prize money over there, indeed he won a gp3 in last few days and has others placed.
    Favourite Moon i think the form just solid, more to come , kept for this race, Haggas due, 0/11 on your york angle?, i will also back Pablo Escobar for fun. Makram, i thought won a tad cosy lto, looks an improver, may have preferred Watson on it, but he has not ridden this one before and has ride for Mullins in Ebor so probably understandable, form of last run also working out well.
    Oh and Galactic Glow, owned by the shouty owner, i hope it wins for him as i love the post race interview. Good luck

    1. GL James, yep fingers crossed a few of those go close, esp the H horses but TP have had the odd decent Saturday, hopefully again.
      Tough season for Jason Watson, will test him mentally, not sure his season stats looking great as yet … Hollie obv now has that retainer with said owner (forget name/dark green silks) but he has a few with Charlton.
      Prince Abdullah didn’t want to use him at Kempton the other night when Ryan rode two winners for him, when Jason was at the track. Tough game but at least he’s got Rogers support.

      Josh

  7. Nothing takes my fancy today so no selections or observations…gd lck if playing as looks a tricky day again.

  8. Liked the sequence of tweets in the sidebar – Sinjaari / Dark Jedi / Certain Lad

    leading to Euchen Glen in the Ebor possibly

    I have backed JEREMIAH myself, on the short list generated by JWs Ebor Pointers

    AND

    Fellowes SR in handicaps is exceptional. I started using Geegeez and I found this:

    Since March 2019 to today, Fellowes 12 to 16f hcps, on turf in UK, Clss 2 and 3 = 30% win 50% place

    Simon Rowlands also points out his %RB in Hcps in recent times (??) = 63.6%

    May all be meaningless of course, but 6 places 25/1 was irresistable and I’m on for as much as I can bare to lose

  9. I’m thinking to myself, (that’s dangerous!)

    Lots of people talk of trainers running their horses to get a good handicap mark in future races, (which I am sure happens).
    However, this is not normally talked about in terms of exposed older horses or maidennovice races befre getting the first mark. It is normally talked about with reference to 3yo only handicap races, (particularly over 1m plus). However, these races are often really competitive, stacked full of horses from leading yards that are likely to rate a good deal higher in future. Would it then be the case that some trainers are likely to run their lesser 3yos in this race, in order to get well beaten, get their mark reduced, and then run the horse in a less competitive 3yo+ handicap, where their horse will benefit from the weight for age running against older horses?
    I mean, if I was a trainer it is something I would seriously consider doing, if I didn’t train the really good 3yo horses…..

    1. AS an example of a really tough 3yo handicap, look at the 3.15 at Sandown today. So many unexposed horse from leading yards.

      1. I wouldn’t say at that stage of careers connections are running horses to get marks down say, once they have a mark. Certainly not in first half of a season. That’s different from having a target for a race of course and ensuring you don’t have them fully tuned up etc.
        But, at this stage trainers can still be working out these young horses and what their ideal conditions are… And how good they are. And whether they’ve trained on from 2 to 3 etc. Coltrane has run on his merits every run of his life to date, won his last two and has just bolted up in most competitive staying handicap run this season for 3yo only. The 1st two in yesterdays last race were both LTO winners etc.
        I think whne you’re talking those big classy handicaps it’s a bit different.
        Esp these 3YO only, packed with unexposed horses. Top trainers should have an idea on how well handicapped they may be, based on who they work with at home etc, but still may not know ideal conditions. And if they’re still a colt say, you’re dreaming off them going through ranks and getting back type etc.
        It’s tricky. As always there’s no blanket one size fits all approach that any particular trainer would take.
        Maidens are used for a variety of reasons obviously and some a brought along slowly, which has benefit of getting a lower mark and potential to win more races once they’ve got one. A complex picture.
        I think the ‘trainers running them to get good marks’ is overdone, esp when you’re hitting c3/2 level. Will be more about targets etc maybe.
        Josh

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