Daily Members Post: 21/08/20 (complete)

All Tips x5 + write ups, Friday’s quals…

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(128 tips/18 wins/45 places (inc wins) /+68.1 points, advised/ +61.31 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.45 York – Dark Jedi 1.5 points win – 8/1 (betfS/PP) 7/1 (gen) 2nd, -1.5 

#2 – 4.50 York – Hartswood 1.5 points win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd, -1.5

#3 – 4.50 York – Johan1.5 points win  – 10/1 (gen) UP, -1.5

#4 – 3.45 York – Dingle – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365/WH/BV/BF) 3rd, -1

#5 – 4.15 York – Chamade1.5 points win – 6/1 (gen) UP 17/2, -1.5

That’s all for today, fpour races, x5 tips, 7 points in total,  1/2/3 as of 07.55, 4/5 as of 08.52, … don’t forget to refresh the page to see any new additions, including in the comments… write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.25 Salis – Late Arrival (12/1< guide) H3 13/8 3rd

1.45 York – Alfaatik (any, 20/1< best) 6/1 WON 6/1 > 15/2 

2.25 Salis- Khayyaal (any, 9/2< best) H3 7/2 UP

4.50 York – Johan (13/2<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’  UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainers/Sires

3.45 York – Dingle (10/1< guide) 15/2 3rd

Jim Crowley (any)

1.45 York – Alfaatik 6/1 WON 6/1 > 15/2 

4.15 York – Asiaaf H4 9/4 UP

Jack Mitchell 

3.25 Salis – Whelans Way (any) H2 4/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

1.45 York – Dark Jedi (2nd run) H4 7/1 2nd 

3.25 Salis – Whelans Way (1st run since tipped) H2 4/1 UP

4.50 York – Overwrite (1st run) H4 12/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

York Day 3 Stats Pointers: HERE>>>

*

Tips write ups…

A busier than expected day but that can happen at these ‘Festivals’ – 5 is the most i’ll generally post up in a day and 7 points is on the hefty end for me but for some reason i’m more bullish than I should be on a few of those. Yes yes, i’ve said that before with mixed success! As always, they’re posted in the order that I got to them/made a decision, but I usually start with the handicaps…

Dark Jedi – tipped two starts back – a rare 1 point EW and an even rarer place when doing so! That was in the John Smith’s Cup where he ran well I thought, possibly challenging in the wrong part of the track that day. He was surrounded by 100+ handicappers also. But, he wasn’t stopping come the line but it did all seem to happen quick enough and I can see why they’re trying this extra yardage. This is a lesser race also. His trainer thinks its what he needs. Tim is 1/12 in the race and the horse has course form, no bad thing here. He’s also a prominent racer and there’s a fierce tailwind today, much stronger than the previous two days. In theory it should be even harder to come from behind. That Newcastle race was a crawl, it turned into a dash, he was short of room momentarily and stayed on, but it wasn’t a bad race, or run.  I do think there is more to come from him and while stamina is a question (his sire puts me off, his damn side/relations encourages me!) he shapes as if well worth a go. He’s well handicapped in my view and if he stays he will run like a 7/2 shot here, not 7s, and as such was worth a go. 4 year olds also do best in this race and by quite some way from the sample sizes, win% etc. He has more wins in him this season anyway. Here’s hoping its today…

Dangers… the two MJ horses scare me a tad, nothing else does. Zabeel Champion is short at 7/4 for a horse stepping up in trip and not proven to stay. You’re braver than I if diving in at that price on the nose. He does shape as if worth a go but like mine, his sire would give you a niggle over these 1m4f+ trips. And MJs can bomb out – he’s 2/28 in the race. But, he is the right fav – although his recent form is only so so, and doesn’t match the selections – well not that York run anyway. Clearly no shock winner. Kings Caper is interesting given his rating/allowances. I think he stays and he may try and make all. I can see why some fancy at 10s and is potential saver material – although those spare change darts can add up! Restorer is interesting but 13/2 felt about right and he is 8, open to attack from more progressive rivals, although he arrives in form and is well handicapped now. Connections of Alfaatik have been very honest, I hope – The Sheik’s racing manager says he will need the run, as does Jim. Of course he may be 95% fit and so well handicapped he gets away with it, but I can leave/take on.

*

Hartswood – oddly for a race like this i’ve ended up being far too confident. I think i’m on the right two here and will be bitterly disappointed if they don’t run crackers, and go very close. This one is just so solid and on HRB figures smashed these with his LTO effort, and is clear top rated in this. I do like ‘support’ from their ratings when going 8s< in these sorts of handicaps. He is progressive, he stays well, and he hit the line hard here LTO, as if there’s plenty more to come. He races prominently and is well drawn. There is a fair bit of pace on paper in this – I don’t think they will hang around, esp as a few drawn wide who are in a tricky position – a few may decide to blast out, and hopefully do too much, or get stuck wide. He has no excuse here. He should keep rolling, no firm in the going is ideal (if Fahey deems it too fast he will pull him out, so no excuse if he runs) and I thought he should be 11/2 joint fav in this. That race LTO was a 3yo+ handicap and he was up against some hardy, older, sorts rated high 90s/low 100s. He and his stablemate pulled clear. He’s just hardy, which I think may count in his favour against some others in this. Solid.

Johan – how he was 10s is anyone’s guess (cue him drifting out to 12s/14s!) and I don’t care if he falls out the back of the TV – that’s about 3-4 points too big given what we know-  his profile/form, in a race like this. He’s that price because of his run LTO – it was his first run on Good to Firm and he chased a silly pace – he did best of those who were prominent – well he let the leader go who went far too hard, but was ahead of the rest. Those more patiently ridden came through and dominated but he plugged on. I think he may prefer a more restrained ride. Still, it was a decent race and his RPR 98 was solid. He posted an RPR 100 before that, a career best, along with a career best TS figure. He was a trainer profile qualifier that day who I missed out on – early season, I wasn’t reading it well and fitness was unknown. Still, he was settled a bit further back there, under James, but stayed on so well. I’m still not sure how he got up but he did it cosily come the line. I think 96 underestimates him and he’s a strong pace to sit off here, hopefully in mid division. Maybe further forward, but hopefully not out the back! I don’t know if Marquand had the choice (he does get first choice on Haggas horses, The Doyler confirmed that on TV yesterday) but there’s a chance the owners wanted him back on, given that Newb win. The 4th from that race has won a Glorious Goodwood C2 off 92. And connections thought him good enough to pitch into a G3 last October. Haggas wouldn’t be one to tilt at windmills-  I suspect they like him. Haggas is 1/7, 4p in the race and of his three, he was the one I liked most.

Dangers… I didn’t like the rest at the prices.  I much prefer the formlines/profiles of my two than Eastern World and Finest Sound – in any case, they were not overpriced in my view. If Visinari wins this on his return from top weight, fair play to all concerned. He could have class, but I have to leave him/take on. Cold Front- just lacks the experience for me and all those above him in the market have achieved a much higher level of form. But he is making handicap debut, it’s Haggas and Tom may have had the pick. But not for me. The likes of Brunch has to step up in class but he’s not doing much wrong. He can be slowly away but this could be run hard and suit a more patient one. The yard are a bit hot and cold at the moment. But then again the wind may keep the prom racers up there. Overwrite was a losing tip LTO and at Newmarket. This is much deeper, he wont’ get an easy lead (I don’t think!) from stall 16. If he beats me, you may hear some anguish but i’ll cope. Mon Choix has questions up from weak Class 5s into this, and from a rating of 78 to 91. If he takes this then fair play to them all, it would be a Sir Mark esq rise through the capping ranks. Black Caspian may run well, if staying, but that’s the question. He beat Hartswood two starts back, just. But he did have benefit of the run, and the former is now a proven stayer. He has questions but 25s may be a tad insulting. Quinn one of the few decent jockeys who can ride 8 st. He’s the most interesting of the monster priced ones.

*

Dingle – A rare foray into a maiden for my ‘trainer/sires’ angle, and when I started digging at the stats, I couldn’t leave him at 15/2. Firstly, Hannon senior was 2/4 in this race, Junior is 0/4,1p. He still has his say and I wonder if he influenced targeting this. Maybe. Of more interest… Hannon jnr/this sire/York/2YO… 3/7, 4 places. He’s also 6/20,10p in the last 2 years with 2YOs by this sire and as per that previous stat, half of those have come here – including one for these owners.  Hannon and Dobbs are 2/12,8p on 2YOs in the last 30 days. The horse… he shaped with promise on his debut, he looked a big unit of a 2YO, much bigger than the Fav who was ahead of him there. That may mean little but he was unfancied at 14/1 and I suspect will come on bundles for the run.

Unibet, who sponsor the yard, also appear to be ducking him, at 6s and his quote in today’s blog post…

“He ran a very encouraging race on debut at Newmarket when he would’ve badly needed it and the ground was plenty soft enough as well. He’s always been an colt we’ve liked and with expected improvement I really rate his chance.”

I thought the top two were worth taking on at their odds given the nature of the race, but clearly no shock if either wins. I thought the selection would do best of the rest, given those stats and an inkling this has been the plan. Hannon must have a firm grip on his 2 year olds now, and one of his won the listed race that the fav contested LTO. So, market support could be significant and indicate they think they’ve got him beat! We can dream.

*

Chamade – one from the York pointer stats, for the TJC at this meeting. 6s seemed an insult here… I expected to open the race up and see her at 4s or so, and certainly not much bigger than Varian’s. Odd. I don’t understand her price. They appear to have found the key and she won well LTO. She’s progressive and has the best form to date in the race, and by some way for me. I also thought Harry Bentley would try to make all – Joe Fanning may upset things on that front if she’s good enough to lay up. First Kingdom tried to make all LTO but I don’t think stayed 10f to the eye, so i’d be surprised if they were aggressive again – his retained rider for the owners, David Egan, is at Salisbury… is that a tip in itself?… I haven’t looked at his rides there in depth, but could be worth a glance…(3 relatively fancied ones, including for his retainer, so hopefully that’s a sign as to First Kingdom’s chance…) . Hopefully the selection is the one to pass… and who may do that…

Asiaaf… obviously.. but i’ve watched her last two runs back a couple of times and something niggles me as to her attitude- well she tries, but maybe just a bit soft at the moment, mentally, but will improve with experience. There were enough doubts there for me to happily take her on. I could be very very wrong and she bolts up, but for now, i’ll trust my eyes. I think it’s between these two and the weight difference will mean sod all if it does transpire the fav doesn’t like a scrap. The horse she chased home at Goodwood did bolt up next time, so some substance there. Given her profile she is the right fav, but I couldn’t help myself.

Of course, these are fillies and they can throw in a shocker… Ralph said she’d turned a corner this season before Goodwood win and is more straightforward. I don’t think she has to lead, but does wear blinkers for a reason. It could be she doesn’t have a going day but at that price, in the context of this race, i’ll have a go. If she runs her race she won’t be out of the places. Maybe i’ll regret not going EW, but that’s how I like to do things, most of the time. I rarely get the EW decision correct. I think she will be the one to pass in the final furlong, and she may just bat them away. Here’s hoping.

*

GL with any bets, as always.

Josh

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Looks like a Favourite’s day to me at York.
    So with that I’m going
    £1 yankee
    2:15 Enbihaar
    2:45 Minzaal
    3:15 Battash
    4:15 Asiaaf
    To give Jim Crawley a four timer.

  2. Just a place and 2 losers on Thursday.

    Three for Friday at York:

    2.15, Enhibaar – a class horse who continues to improve, up in distance here, trainer and jockey in form. 2 points win.
    4.15, Virgin Snow – back in distance here after not staying 12 furlongs last time out, improving three year old, should be prominent and then take on the leader. 1 point each way.
    4.50, Hartswood – course and distance winner last time out, improving three year old. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  3. Jim Crowley could have the first 6 winners at York tomorrow doesn’t have a mount in the last race 4 of the 6 suggested in the previous comment by Compound Dave. I am very much looking forward to Battaash smashing lot up ….AGAIN
    145 Alfaatik
    215 Enbihaar

  4. Asking for a friend.

    On Wednesday in the 1.45 at York on the Betfair Exchange there was an offer bet £20 and get a £20 free bet if your selection loses I believe?

    I notice that it was a ‘RF’ race, in that there were non runners and so the odds you would have initially been matched at would have been reduced.

    However that would not stop you being granted the free bet though would it? Was the bet for the 1.45 on Thursday only?

    Thanks Martin

    1. As long as the bet was matched before the off any R4 should make no difference, all free bets must be used within 72 hours.

  5. yesterdays c3+ list had 9 winners and 9 places. it turned out to be a good day but today is today and as good as yesterday was today could be the opposite. these are just observations that i share with the RTP family.
    anyway on to todays c3+ video replay list
    YORK
    13:45 on to victory / dark jedi / zabeel champion
    14:15 nayef road / stratum
    14:45 minzal / mystery smiles / yazaman
    15:15 battaash / a’ali / art power
    15:45 dingle / naval crown / taweed
    16:15 chamade / asiaaf / first kingdom
    16:50 overwrite / hartswood / magnetised / cold front

    my picks
    STRATUM E/W 20/1 an over seas raider, another from Ireland (french,Irish raiders seem to be becoming a habit of mine). some red hot horses in this and no Stradivarius to spoil the party today. has been running over the sticks to mixed success but go back to October and on the flat he won the cesarewitch in the soft. which i dont think puts him a million miles away from some of these. he out battled summer moon that day which won the sky bet handicap here on Tuesday. this is more speculative punt and may need a sprinkle of luck to even get a place. but this is horse racing and coming from a top trainer and given the nightmare it must be to even get a horse here in the current climate i dont think he is here for a day out…….

    FIRST KINGDOM 7/1 a couple of solid wins this season and then a blip last time out. that blip took place in france (definitely a pattern forming). she went off out in front and did to much by the look of it and ended up getting caught by the pack. 1 length in front of her was a horse called alipinista which was one of my picks last week and won at a nice price but alpinista ran yesterday too and she finished second behind love. alpinista is now a group 1 horse. now thats probably gonna go the same way for first kingdom but it does mean she has ability and with a more patient run i think she will be there or there about.

    over in ireland
    killarney
    2:05 maud gonne spirit
    4:10 yulong pearlisland
    couple over the sticks
    newton abbot
    4:55 boreham bill
    5:25 france de reve
    on the brown stuff
    wolverhampton 7:35 riviera belle

    as always good luck eveyone. 🙂

  6. No serious bets today but a few i quite like spotted around,
    Salisbury.
    12-50. Miss Villanelle 12-1, back down to same mark as when winning a comparable race last August and has a 7lb claimer on board. lto ran a pretty good race in a c4 losing by 3.5l but was hampered and had to switch, back in a c5 a repeat of that would give her every chance.
    3-55. Follow Intello 11-1 4p, back on turf after a couple of not so good runs on the AW , now just below lwm and looks the perfect placement to get back to winning ways.
    before leaving Salisbury there are 2 well below lwm that might be worth a second glance 3-25. Just Glamorous and 4-25. Robero.
    nothing at Killarney apart from an absolutely bonkers £1 ew on King’s Song 100-1 4-45.
    York.
    1-45. Dash of Spice 10-1
    2-45. Seven Brothers 14-1 looks overpriced, obvious dangers Ubettabelieveit and Mystery Smiles, not keen on top 3 in the market.
    3-15. what’s going to follow Battaash home? might have some silly money on Ornate 80-1 to place.
    4-50. very open , i’ll just have a go on Hartswood who has a good a chance as many

  7. I see Alfaatik ,145 York, hits a couple of your angles today. A 4yo that’s had just 3 runs in its life! A quick look at its form doesn’t look very inspiring, but take a look at the Sandown run, the Gp3 classic trial, horse was lazy coming out of the stalls and always looked well held, but was running on at the death and i can’t help imagining where the horse might have finished if you added another 2f of todays trip. So there is some sort of ability there. Trained by the master trainer Gosden and still in training, by Sea the stars, top owner, these guys know what they are doing and are not mucking about here. An intriguing runner and I’m watching the market like a hawk

    1. Oh he should win something nice this season if all A1… the quote from Angus Gold, racing manager… from the RP…

      Angus Gold, racing manager to owner Hamdan Al Maktoum: “He’s had lots of problems and is a big, lazy horse who is hard to get 100 per cent fit at home. He’ll need the run.”

      Jim also said the same. He’d come on for it… so at 5s or so, I have to leave/take on…

      He does need the run… BUT, that doesn’t mean he can’t win of course. He may be so well handicapped he gets away with it. And you should never be put off by connections, if you like the price – I dont.

      Josh

  8. I noticed today that my Wm Hill betslip omitted the statement “Best Odds Guaranteed”. It should be available after 10.00 am. Does anyone know if they have changed their policy?

    1. Hi David,

      Yep they’ve been BOG from 10am on the day since December 19 or so I believe.

      If you head to Odds Checker, and hover over the green ticks in the ‘best odds guaranteed’ boxes at the top, underneath each bookie banner (within any race, just pick one from Yorks say), you can read the terms and conditions for each for BOG.

      In short…

      888 are day of race, so I assume from 00.01
      Bet365 – no restriction
      Skybet – from 9am on day of racing
      WH – from 10am day of racing
      Betfair Sports/ Paddy Power (same group) – from 8am on the day
      Betvictor – from 9am on the day
      Unibet – from 8am on day of race
      Betfred – from 8am on day
      Ladbrokes – after 9am on the day
      Coral – on the day of the race, so I assume after 00.01… although same group at Ladbrokes, so could be same..
      *
      Anyone ‘tipping’ evening before and claiming ‘BOG’ is clearly playing silly buggers given the above.
      In part that’s why I no longer record to BOG, given how many different terms above, but obviously if you can get it still, best to. Likes of WH, Ladbrookes etc do like a ‘boost’ though if you have that concession also.

      Some of them do min bet liability after a certain time but I don’t know who, or what! BetVictor did but then quietly dropped it. WH may still do.

      Josh

    2. They stopped my BOG a few weeks ago along with any other promotions and can only get reduced stakes now. Hope the same hasn’t happened to you.

  9. Well done again Josh and Warren with yesterday’s choices.
    Today looks tricky.
    14.45 York. I have Minzaal and Mystery Smiles, with the latter marginally ahead on speed but would not want to live on the difference so no bet as the prices are skinny.
    Looking for value elsewhere (maybe tomorrow!!??)…..did take a good look at York 15.15 and results below in terms of speed.
    1. Battaash the clear speed merchant and price reflects this and will take all the beating and no value at prohibitive odds.
    2. Ornate came within 2.5 lengths at Gd Wd clocking 40.77 mph so was this a fluke at 100/1?
    3. Emaraaty Ana clocked 40.25 mph.
    4.. Moss Gill clocked 39.39 mph and is matched with A’Ali and Art Power.
    5. Kurious clocked 38.48 mph.

    The question I have why are Ornate and Emaraaty Ana such big prices? They are both value in the place marked and without Battaash. As I type, without Baaash Em is 22/ 1 with WH. (13.5 on Betfair) and Ornate is 33/1 on WH (27.00 betfair ) Lads market suspended (no surprises there as they really hate value) so if decide to play today there is value to ponder….No selections for me but will have a small wager on Em and ornate to place without Battaash…all the best .

  10. well that’s me able to relax in profit for the day already, backed Alfaatik twice because it was in 2 angles matched @11-0, backed Josh’s ew (sorry Josh) and one of the services i use put up Arafi Sal 1-25 as their biggest bet today matched @ 6.4 🙂

    1. nice spot Martin….ground looks good to soft to me not Good as described…any thoughts on that or are you not bothered?!!!

      1. only a couple of fun bets at york for me today, i do systems/anges/tips whatever so must admit i wasn’t paying much attention.

    2. must remember to do the Euromillions tonight, had 302-56 in my b365 a/c so had £1-28 ew on Just Glamorous (as mentioned above)in the 3-25 @33-1 , another £53-25 in the pot. 🙂

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.