2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
The Flat 2020
(123 tips/18 wins/42 places (inc wins) /+75.1 points, advised/
+67.56 TBC Betfair SP)
#1 – 2.45 York – Montatham – 1 point win – 15/2 (BetfS/PP/BetF) WON 7s (declared 7s, not sure 15/2 lasted too long) > 4/1
#2 – 2.45 York – Deep Intrigue – 1 point win – Betfair Exchange Starting Price (BFSP) UP, didn’t run much of a race at all , -1
#3 – 3.45 York – Award Scheme – 1 point win – 13/2 (WH/BetfS/PP/BV) 3rd, 10/3, got the value… strange/odd ride/tactics, but that’s racing. -1
#4 – 6.30 Chest – Recon Mission – 1 point win – 8/1 (WH/BetfS/PP) 3rd, 12/1, -1
That’s all for today, x4, 1+2 as of 08.05, 3+4 as of 9am…don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page… write up at bottom of post…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
4.50 York – Dancing Vega (16/1<) H4 4/1 UP
3.Other Micro Angles
2.15 York – Power Station 100/1 UP
3.15 York – Love 4/9 WON
4.Horses to Follow
2.45 York – Arigato (2nd run since tipped) 20/1 UP
6.30 Chest – Barbill (1st run) 11/2 WON 11/2 , 20p R4
6.30 Chest – Recon Mission (1st run) 8/1 3rd 12/1
8.00 Chest – Future Investment (2nd run) H2 9/4 WON 9/4>11/8
4.50 York – Never In Paris (3rd run) 25/1 UP
Tips write ups…
Montatham – he’s one of three to hit my ‘trends’ for this race which are 11/11 so we shall see if they hold up – although given the rating of the top weight, the 8-13+ stat may be irrelevant. Haggas has won this race before and the horse is clear top rated on HRB, their ‘numbers’ backing up what he’s done on paper in recent runs. I think he has the best handicapping form in the race, and by some way – to date. He’s also still open to improvement. He was withdrawn at Goodwood due to the fast going and I think he could well be best with a bit of cut, or in any case no firm in the going. This should keep drying out although of course looking at his form suggests he’s versatile – it won’t be an excuse anyway. A repeat of his last two runs makes him the one to be for me and since Goodwood this has no doubt been the plan. That Royal Hunt Cup win is so solid – a great run, having to challenge up the middle when the track bias that day was nearside. Being beaten by Dark Vision was no bad thing there and the 3rd would sin NTO also. The front 3 clear, the front 4 well clear. This isn’t anywhere near as deep in my view. He then won at Sandown LTO which was a decent performance given they dawdled, turned into a bit of a dash and i’m not sure he was in love with that ground. Him and Dark Vision pulled clear again (he’d hack up at Ponte NTO in an ok race) and he hit the line hard. He’s never raced here which is always a question of course but even in this race I thought he was a couple of points too big. He also has progressive/career best RPRs, 3 starts ago… 103, then 106 and 110 at Sandown. More to come. The pace set up (or lack of, on paper) was a positive also, I think. More on that in a moment…
Deep Intrigue – this is the Clipper Logistics handicap and this horse is owned by, yep, you guessed it. That may mean nothing of course but their retained rider, Danny Tudhope, can’t do this weight, so nothing in that. Were he carrying 8-9/10+ he’d have had the choice possibly, i’m not sure how they work that when O’Meara has a fancied on in the race. Anyway… the horse… MJ won this two years ago with a biggie and he shapes as if well worth a go over 8f. He may not stay of course but how he runs would give me hope and it could be a reason for further improvement. I’m also not sure he’s been in love with fast ground either – he won on it as a 2YO but most of his better runs haven’t really had ‘firm’ anywhere in the going. That last run was solid – held up, challenging wide up the middle – he must have used enough gas there but stayed on well to the line. The horse in fron, 94 rated Magical Wish, would win on his next start at Donny in an ok C2.
The pace set up drew me in also – there simply isn’t much on paper at all – nothing in here regularly front runs – Whats The Story did LTO and maybe from wide they will try it again. However Joe is also wide and I don’t think he will have to use up too much gas to get out, and across. He may try and make all here, with a stronger tailwind (south east, pushing from behind and across the track) than yesterday as per one of the links (as posted in comments below) – he may not, given the step up in trip, but it is MJ/JF and that’s the preferred method. In any case he should sit handy if breaking and i’ve read this right.
Montatham can also race prominently – the middle to far side is riding quicker on the going stick, we shall see what that translates to, maybe nothing – but swinging off the bend and middle/low may be the place to be, rather than swinging in wide, challenging nearside. (which was the place to be in John Smiths Cup a couple weeks back) Who knows, but he won’t waste ground from that low draw and they both should be in ‘no excuses’ position.
IF this isn’t run at a breakneck gallop, that will inconvenience some of the more patiently ridden types – that would put me off Sir Busker in the context of his price, but he’s still in form and could be well handicapped still, but I prefer the Haggas horse/form. Maybe they’ll battle it out, mine with track position.
Of the rest… i’m happy to take on the Fav – if he bolts up like a group horse in a handicap, so be it – but he’s clearly been fragile/hard to train, as they hardly run him and he usually has big breaks between races – there is a big chance that he can’t back up that last run. Or he’s over whatever problems he had, has grown, matured and this is his year. But I have to oppose 3/1 shots in races like this – the odd one goes in, but long term it’s the right approach.
I’ll mention three more… Prompting … I spent a good while tossing up between him and my first pick, but in decided mine simply had better form and was also still open to improvement. But this one is too, and maybe he’s better handicapped/will run his race. He did it well LTO but is up another 6lb and his form only has a ‘so so’ feel about it to me. But he hits my meeting Trainer/Jockey combo and I wouldn’t put you off a saver. He will be in the right spot also, pace/positioning wise.
The two biggies who would annoy me… Whats The Story – last year’s winner, but he is 3lb above that winning mark, which was a career high, and he is 6. I also think this looks like a deeper renewal. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran on into the places, and if I think they can place, that means they can win. But even at 20s just not enough there. Surely something is better treated in here. Agrigato is the other one – but he does have a stamina question in a race like this, although he’s won over 8f. He has shaped on the odd occasion if maybe it will unlock more but again he’s also now on a career high and i’m not sure if he has much in hand now. But cut isn’t a problem and a big run from him wouldn’t surprise me. Again though, I think others have stronger recent form and he needs more.
3.45 – Award Scheme – I thought she should be 4s or so in this, 2 points too big – one from my Haggas meeting micros – and he’s 1/10,3p in the race. When teaming up with Danny here in last 5 years he’s 6/11,7p, including with this one two starts back. I also thought there was a chance he tries to make all without much pressure applied, in any case, she’ll be up there. She hacked up here two starts back and ‘on the figures’ has some of the best recent form, and indeed is another well clear on HRB ratings. Her run LTO was solid. They didn’t go that quick there, she took a while to organise against the make all winner, but stayed on to the line. It may be that winner is just very smart anyway. This ground could/should be drying out by the time of this race and I don’t think any cut will be an excuse. It wasn’t fast when she won here two starts back. She shapes as if well worth a step up in trip and is related to plenty who did best over 1m4f+. Haggas knows whats needed to win this race and 3 year olds also do much better than 4 year olds in this, historically at least.
Of the rest… well Haggas has two more and I may be on the wrong one. I really don’t know what jockey has had the choice here and whether Tom has jumped off mine onto Lady G. Maybe. But at similar odds I preferred mine. Maybe The Doyler will win – Sea Of Faith had a knee chip removed over winter and the plan was to return her to the track sooner this season. IF she’s a1, she’s a danger and open to plenty of improvement. But this is her first run after 371 days and i’m not sure how I can wade in at 4s given that. It is an open/competitive race, Varian’s and Beckett’s entitled to go well. But I thought mine looked big, especially given the course form and the fact Danny may get a freebie on the front end, and ride her like he did two starts back.
6.30 Chest – Recon Mission…
8s confused me but maybe i’ve missed something. I fancied him LTO when he ducked at the start, game over. And it all happened too quickly over that fast 5. He has some of, if not the, best sprint handicapping form in this race and he’s back to his last winning mark. He usually races prominent, has course form and likes cut in the ground. He should race up there, either trying to lead or tracking anything that goes past him. I just thought he looked big here and brings a touch of sprint handicapping class to the table. The jockey booking is odd in the sense Lee hasn’t ridden for the yard for at least 5 years but he does ride this course well. And all his recent pilots are elsewhere – although now Windsor is off, what with the current rules, I don’t know if they can divert to other meetings – or whether for example Hollie D would come up here and they’d jock Graham off. Who knows. Anyway, 8s looks too big to my in-and-out eyes.
Rayong is solid enough but seems short. I’m not convinced he’s thrown in, he has stamina to prove, it’s his first run around here and he’s had 44 days off, which is odd/long enough for a sprinter. Brad The Brief has been hammered in the market and this team know when to back one, especially around here. Michael Owen is probably involved somewhere, unloading as we speak. He is unexposed, in form, knows how to win -but again his first run around here and the hardier handicappers have done more. But he could improve past the lot – stall 7 isn’t easy, esp as plenty of pace on inside – I can’t think he’ll be quicker away than some of those, so he either gets trapped wide, uses up too much gas, or gets shuffled back further than ideal. That makes 9/2 or so short enough for me. He can beat me. Which he may do.
The biggest danger may be Gabriel The Saint but he’s hard to weight up – pacey also and they drop him in trip. He should run his race and could be knocking on the door. Now 0/13,2p in C2s though, although a 2nd in the Ayr Silver Cup which isn’t too bad. Anyway, Recon Mission will do – if he drifts out past 8s i’d be concerned but I don’t know why he won’t run his race here.
That’s all for today, best of luck with any bets as always. Some of you have been in fine form in the comments in recent days, long may you reign.