Daily Members Post: 20/08/20 (complete)

All Tip x4, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(123 tips/18 wins/42 places (inc wins) /+75.1 points, advised/ +67.56 TBC Betfair SP)

#1 – 2.45 York – Montatham – 1 point win – 15/2 (BetfS/PP/BetF) WON 7s (declared 7s, not sure 15/2 lasted too long) > 4/1 

#2 – 2.45 York – Deep Intrigue 1 point win – Betfair Exchange Starting Price (BFSP) UP, didn’t run much of a race at all , -1

#3 – 3.45 York – Award Scheme – 1 point win – 13/2 (WH/BetfS/PP/BV) 3rd, 10/3, got the value… strange/odd ride/tactics, but that’s racing. -1

#4 – 6.30 Chest – Recon Mission – 1 point win – 8/1 (WH/BetfS/PP) 3rd, 12/1, -1

That’s all for today, x4, 1+2 as of 08.05, 3+4 as of 9am…don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page… write up at bottom of post… 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.50 York – Dancing Vega (16/1<) H4 4/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

2.15 York – Power Station 100/1 UP

3.15 York – Love 4/9 WON 

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips 

2.45 York – Arigato (2nd run since tipped) 20/1 UP

6.30 Chest – Barbill (1st run) 11/2 WON 11/2 , 20p R4

6.30 Chest – Recon Mission (1st run) 8/1 3rd 12/1

8.00 Chest – Future Investment (2nd run) H2 9/4 WON 9/4>11/8

Hot-Form

4.50 York – Never In Paris (3rd run) 25/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

York – Day 2 Stats Pointers HERE>>>

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Tips write ups…

2.45

Montatham – he’s one of three to hit my ‘trends’ for this race which are 11/11 so we shall see if they hold up – although given the rating of the top weight, the 8-13+ stat may be irrelevant. Haggas has won this race before and the horse is clear top rated on HRB, their ‘numbers’ backing up what he’s done on paper in recent runs. I think he has the best handicapping form in the race, and by some way – to date. He’s also still open to improvement. He was withdrawn at Goodwood due to the fast going and I think he could well be best with a bit of cut, or in any case no firm in the going. This should keep drying out although of course looking at his form suggests he’s versatile – it won’t be an excuse anyway. A repeat of his last two runs makes him the one to be for me and since Goodwood this has no doubt been the plan. That Royal Hunt Cup win is so solid – a great run, having to challenge up the middle when the track bias that day was nearside. Being beaten by Dark Vision was no bad thing there and the 3rd would sin NTO also. The front 3 clear, the front 4 well clear. This isn’t anywhere near as deep in my view. He then won at Sandown LTO which was a decent performance given they dawdled, turned into a bit of a dash and i’m not sure he was in love with that ground. Him and Dark Vision pulled clear again (he’d hack up at Ponte NTO in an ok race) and he hit the line hard. He’s never raced here which is always a question of course but even in this race I thought he was a couple of points too big. He also has progressive/career best RPRs, 3 starts ago… 103, then 106 and 110 at Sandown. More to come. The pace set up (or lack of, on paper) was a positive also, I think. More on that in a moment…

Deep Intrigue – this is the Clipper Logistics handicap and this horse is owned by, yep, you guessed it. That may mean nothing of course but their retained rider, Danny Tudhope, can’t do this weight, so nothing in that. Were he carrying 8-9/10+ he’d have had the choice possibly, i’m not sure how they work that when O’Meara has a fancied on in the race. Anyway… the horse… MJ won this two years ago with a biggie and he shapes as if well worth a go over 8f. He may not stay of course but how he runs would give me hope and it could be a reason for further improvement. I’m also not sure he’s been in love with fast ground either – he won on it as a 2YO but most of his better runs haven’t really had ‘firm’ anywhere in the going. That last run was solid – held up, challenging wide up the middle – he must have used enough gas there but stayed on well to the line. The horse in fron, 94 rated Magical Wish, would win on his next start at Donny in an ok C2.

The pace set up drew me in also – there simply isn’t much on paper at all – nothing in here regularly front runs – Whats The Story did LTO and maybe from wide they will try it again. However Joe is also wide and I don’t think he will have to use up too much gas to get out, and across. He may try and make all here, with a stronger tailwind (south east, pushing from behind and across the track) than yesterday as per one of the links (as posted in comments below) – he may not, given the step up in trip, but it is MJ/JF and that’s the preferred method. In any case he should sit handy if breaking and i’ve read this right.

Montatham can also race prominently – the middle to far side is riding quicker on the going stick, we shall see what that translates to, maybe nothing – but swinging off the bend and middle/low may be the place to be, rather than swinging in wide, challenging nearside. (which was the place to be in John Smiths Cup a couple weeks back) Who knows, but he won’t waste ground from that low draw and they both should be in ‘no excuses’ position.

IF this isn’t run at a breakneck gallop, that will inconvenience some of the more patiently ridden types – that would put me off Sir Busker in the context of his price, but he’s still in form and could be well handicapped still, but I prefer the Haggas horse/form. Maybe they’ll battle it out, mine with track position.

Of the rest… i’m happy to take on the Fav – if he bolts up like a group horse in a handicap, so be it – but he’s clearly been fragile/hard to train, as they hardly run him and he usually has big breaks between races – there is a big chance that he can’t back up that last run. Or he’s over whatever problems he had, has grown, matured and this is his year. But I have to oppose 3/1 shots in races like this – the odd one goes in, but long term it’s the right approach.

I’ll mention three more… Prompting … I spent a good while tossing up between him and my first pick, but in decided mine simply had better form and was also still open to improvement. But this one is too, and maybe he’s better handicapped/will run his race. He did it well LTO but is up another 6lb and his form only has a ‘so so’ feel about it to me. But he hits my meeting Trainer/Jockey combo and I wouldn’t put you off a saver. He will be in the right spot also, pace/positioning wise.

The two biggies who would annoy me… Whats The Story – last year’s winner, but he is 3lb above that winning mark, which was a career high, and he is 6. I also think this looks like a deeper renewal. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran on into the places, and if I think they can place, that means they can win. But even at 20s just not enough there. Surely something is better treated in here. Agrigato is the other one – but he does have a stamina question in a race like this, although he’s won over 8f. He has shaped on the odd occasion if maybe it will unlock more but again he’s also now on a career high and i’m not sure if he has much in hand now. But cut isn’t a problem and a big run from him wouldn’t surprise me. Again though, I think others have stronger recent form and he needs more.

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3.45 – Award Scheme – I thought she should be 4s or so in this, 2 points too big – one from my Haggas meeting micros – and he’s 1/10,3p in the race. When teaming up with Danny here in last 5 years he’s 6/11,7p, including with this one two starts back. I also thought there was a chance he tries to make all without much pressure applied, in any case, she’ll be up there. She hacked up here two starts back and ‘on the figures’ has some of the best recent form, and indeed is another well clear on HRB ratings. Her run LTO was solid. They didn’t go that quick there, she took a while to organise against the make all winner, but stayed on to the line. It may be that winner is just very smart anyway. This ground could/should be drying out by the time of this race and I don’t think any cut will be an excuse. It wasn’t fast when she won here two starts back. She shapes as if well worth a step up in trip and is related to plenty who did best over 1m4f+. Haggas knows whats needed to win this race and 3 year olds also do much better than 4 year olds in this, historically at least.

Of the rest… well Haggas has two more and I may be on the wrong one. I really don’t know what jockey has had the choice here and whether Tom has jumped off mine onto Lady G. Maybe. But at similar odds I preferred mine. Maybe The Doyler will win – Sea Of Faith had a knee chip removed over winter and the plan was to return her to the track sooner this season. IF she’s a1, she’s a danger and open to plenty of improvement. But this is her first run after 371 days and i’m not sure how I can wade in at 4s given that. It is an open/competitive race, Varian’s and Beckett’s entitled to go well. But I thought mine looked big, especially given the course form and the fact Danny may get a freebie on the front end, and ride her like he did two starts back.

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6.30 Chest – Recon Mission…

8s confused me but maybe i’ve missed something. I fancied him LTO when he ducked at the start, game over. And it all happened too quickly over that fast 5. He has some of, if not the, best sprint handicapping form in this race and he’s back to his last winning mark. He usually races prominent, has course form and likes cut in the ground. He should race up there, either trying to lead or tracking anything that goes past him. I just thought he looked big here and brings a touch of sprint handicapping class to the table. The jockey booking is odd in the sense Lee hasn’t ridden for the yard for at least 5 years but he does ride this course well. And all his recent pilots are elsewhere – although now Windsor is off, what with the current rules, I don’t know if they can divert to other meetings – or whether for example Hollie D would come up here and they’d jock Graham off. Who knows. Anyway, 8s looks too big to my in-and-out eyes.

Rayong is solid enough but seems short. I’m not convinced he’s thrown in, he has stamina to prove, it’s his first run around here and he’s had 44 days off, which is odd/long enough for a sprinter. Brad The Brief has been hammered in the market and this team know when to back one, especially around here. Michael Owen is probably involved somewhere, unloading as we speak. He is unexposed, in form, knows how to win -but again his first run around here and the hardier handicappers have done more. But he could improve past the lot – stall 7 isn’t easy, esp as plenty of pace on inside – I can’t think he’ll be quicker away than some of those, so he either gets trapped wide, uses up too much gas, or gets shuffled back further than ideal. That makes 9/2 or so short enough for me. He can beat me. Which he may do.

The biggest danger may be Gabriel The Saint but he’s hard to weight up – pacey also and they drop him in trip. He should run his race and could be knocking on the door. Now 0/13,2p in C2s though, although a 2nd in the Ayr Silver Cup which isn’t too bad. Anyway, Recon Mission will do – if he drifts out past 8s i’d be concerned but I don’t know why he won’t run his race here.

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That’s all for today, best of luck with any bets as always. Some of you have been in fine form in the comments in recent days, long may you reign.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

44 Responses

    1. estimated 8-10 mm of rain last night, what that would do to the going not sure but my guess would be that it will be much nearer soft than good.

      1. hi Martin, links below in comments to updated info. They ‘only’ had 5.4 mm last night and it’s sunny/dry today, with a breeze, so certainly no worse that Good to Soft (officially!) and should keep drying out up to and through racing.

  1. York early thoughts of biggies,
    1-45. She’s So Nice 40-1
    2-15. Out The Hat 20-1
    2-45. Qaysar 25-1, Arigato 20-1, Chatez 50-1
    3-15. Manuela De Vega 12-1 nap
    4-20. Basilicata 12-1 n.b.
    4-50. Anna Nerium 10-1 3rd best

    1. After listening to the rain come down for the last few hours i have really warmed to Out The Hat in the 2-15, yes a big step up in class but it’s the same for all but 2, only one that has won on soft although saying that it is an unknown for most. That win lto was very easy and he wasn’t stopping, runner up won his next race over 7f
      I’ve had a few quid on the exchange @27.0 and 0.5pt ew 5p @20-1 with sky as i don’t think the price will hold up.
      Now sit back and watch me get bitten in the arse as it drifts to 50’s and finishes plum last 🙂

  2. Keep it going Josh. You are having a sticky spell but it will change. The reason I love this site is the honesty. No stupid hard luck stories or even worse false claims of success.

    1. Thanks Keith. Oh my head is in a fine place, I just don’t like being wrong, esp in the toughest of handicaps which of course is perverse logic and I’m wrong most of the time! This spell isn’t sticky just yet but given races I’ve been playing in last few weeks, a dip to be expected. If you know it will happen it helps you stay the course. I’m better at being positive after days like that but equally you have to be hard on yourself when you’ve got something wrong or cut corners, otherwise you don’t improve and if you’re not progressing this game can/will eat you alive. But I enjoy that aspect. Enough are running well, and at monster odds, for me to know the eyes are working OK but always room for improvement.

      I despise a few things in this game but ‘tipsters’ using excuses etc does annoy me. Mainly as most things are predictable in this game and the fault generally lies at our door… Poor analysis most of the time. As simple as that. The funny ones are ‘oh why was he held up’ when the horse has been held up on its last 4/5 starts etc. And if you play in flat handicaps you do just have to accept an element bad luck and all evens out over time. No point in moaning, not good for the mindset.
      On we go.

  3. A 20/1 and a 6/1 (beaten a short head!) place and a loser on Wednesday.

    Three for Thursday:

    2.45 York, Prompting – still improving, draw OK. 1 point each way.

    4.50 York, Albaflora – up in distance, unexposed three year old. 1 point each way.

    5.25 Chester, Hereby – OK seasonal debut, previously unbeaten, trainer in form, should get a clear run on the front. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

  4. 2:45Y MONTATHAM. 15/2 bet365
    2nd in the Hunt Cup beaten by Dark vision. he had a bad draw that day (5) and had to tack over.
    He won well at Sandown
    4 horses behind him at Sandown have won since. including Dark vision again, who won a listed race.
    He travels well in a race and has acceleration at the end of it.
    I’m not too bothered about the ground as he’s won on soft.

    1. Great stuff Dave, the stars aligned there! Thank the lord he wasn’t put in at his SP, which given his form he really should have been.
      Josh

  5. yesterdays c3+ list had 3 winners and 5 places highlight being pyledriver 10/1
    my pick broxi finished a not to shabby 3rd at 28/1 for an e/w return.
    todays video replay c3+ list
    YORK
    13:45 cream of the crop / sussex garden / miss amulet
    14:15 happy romance / devious company / out the hat / uncle jumbo
    14:45 top rank / walhaan / prompting / montatham / arigato
    15:15 love / manuela de vega / alpinista
    15:45 albaflora / vivionn / gold wand
    16:20 rhoscolyn / star of orion / basilicata
    16:50 never in paris / dancing vega / dawaaween
    CHESTER
    16:25 powerallied / wrenthorpe
    16:55 battered / club wexford / revich
    17:25 hereby / spanish mission
    18:00 spright / ventura vision
    18:30 barbil / lincoln park / danzan

    my picks
    MISS AMULET 14 E/W an irish raider that looks to be improving. showed a bit of metal last time out when getting penned in on the rail and fought really well and finishing off the race with a very nice turn of speed to win quite well. producing that today should see her go well.

    over in ireland
    4:05 leopardstown lightning amber

    as always good luck and lets have another cracking day.

    1. We matched and in she goes !! .. wd wb .. i have been watching from a far don’t you worry .. excellent work form you on here .. appreciate the daily blogs 😉
      lgb

      1. I’m definetly going down the less is more approach with my picks that 10/1 to 20/1 seems to be my sweet spot
        Cheers George 🙂

        1. yep .. i am trying to read that same hymn book “less is more” …… definitely the way forward .. but wd wb and when we match that is that jobs a goodun 🙂
          lgb

        2. Yes well done again, top work! Finding some great priced winners in recent weeks. Must be a healthy looking P/L now since you started these replays lists then main fancies.
          Lots of talk in this game about edges etc etc, I still think replay watching will remain one forever more… As its subjective and not everyone has time or can be bothered to watch replays etc. I should watch more. But if you get your eye in and have certain things you look for/stand out, when combined with some other thinking, just shows you. Many ways to attack this game.
          Keep up the good work.
          Josh

          1. Cheers josh.
            Yes the p/l on the my picks is ok but I am recording them to sp rather than advised. So profit is understandably lower. But I think a fairer reflection.
            The c3+ list every horse to level stake and recorded at sp was about +63 at the start of the day for August.
            I don’t think that approach is for the faint hearted though lol

          2. Great stuff Warren . The double landed and form continued today despite a 55% deduction on the winner at Leopardstown . Thanks a lot and well done.

    2. well well wb
      14.15 york i am going to have to bake you a cake … the old one-two now .. great picks grat f/c to boot !!! ..happy days 🙂
      lgb

    3. woop woop in goes the irish one wb wd my man ….. had a very nice bet on that .. great unpanicked ride by the boy as well … happy days 🙂 cheers n wd 🙂 celebrational cup cake city here today !! 🙂 🙂 🙂 😉 🙂

      lgb

    1. I’ll be honest Josh i thought the 8-10 mmm might be an underestimate, just rung my mate who lives in New Earswick and told him that officially they had 5.4 mm and he pissed himself laughing, he reckons it rained from 7-00 pm almost solidly for 8 hours and then the odd shower after that until about 6-00 am.
      weather looks good now though sunny with a fair breeze so should dry a bit, but i’ll stick it being soft and work from that.

      1. Fair enough. I’ll trust the clerk and all the official weather station/met office links etc and if they’ve put me away and it’s a bog, so be it! We will find out soon enough. GL

  6. My selections today. ( Yesterday 1 x 12/1 winner and 2 places)

    3.45Y Sea of Faith/ Award Scheme
    1.45Y Umm Kulthum
    4.25C Powerallied
    4.55C Gabrial the Wire
    6.30C Gabrial the Saint/Gabrial the Devil
    7.30C Penwortham/ Peachey Carnehan ew
    8.00C Arabist

    Mike

    1. ah yes, top picking with Lady In France, exciting finish also, edge of the seat stuff. That’s what it’s all about. GL today, we can both cheer home Award Scheme!
      Josh

  7. Hi All,

    No tips from me yesterday, day before had a winner and 2 placed from four, the NAP letting me down.

    Lots of good reads in todays blog, my own tips are:
    1:45 York Santosha and Sussex Garden (4 places) – also Shes so Nice (Mehmas sire)
    2:15 York Billian (Mehmas sire)
    2:45 York Prompting
    3:15 York Frankly Darling and Manuela de Vega – must be mad taking Love on but hoping the ground doesnt suit
    3:45 York Albaflora
    4:15 Killarney Skyace

    Good luck to all

    Cheers,

  8. 13.45. York.

    selection. Umm Kulthum 1pt e/w

    Do think this is between those at the top of the market and notice that Andy Holding has gone for Umm Kulthum and Noorban…prefer the former to the latter given the figures I have which confirm the quality of the selection’s run last time out…the only niggle ids the going the going but at 6/1 is ok e/w. One at a massive 80/1 is Cream of the Crop but think the horse will struggle up massively in grade but will be interesting to see that one run…if there were more places on offer would have been a bet but with only three places no thanks.

    14.15 York.

    selections: Billian 1/2 pt e/w
    Power Station 1/2 pt e/w

    Total 4pts wagered

    Again Andy Holding has put this one up on Odds Checker…Billian…it is his second choice against Tinochio and do prefer Billian and is a fair e/w shout, the draw for Billian is the question mark. At bigger prices Fools Rush In, Vedute, Bhubazi, Power Station, …with 4places on offer a small e/ on Power Station @125/1 will be the play along with Billian e/w….Uncle Jumbo is well drawn and with Ryan Moore up and very well drawn has to be a danger even though, on my figures, is behind Billian…..the draw and going may well be the deciding factors here that is why it is called gambling!! All the best today as looks like being more tricky than usual.

    1. 22.4 pts…4 pts wagered…1.5pts profit and 2.5 pts loss = 19.90 pts going forwards….Did have a look at 14.45 York even though it is a hdcp….prefer weigh for age races as easier to assess and like the look of Prompting and Mutamaasik and will be haviing a small e/w wager on both though they are not selections and will not be included in pts available whatever the outcome. Gd lck and back tomorrow. Gd lck for the rest of the day.

    1. well done josh / wb … it’s all the makings of a day of all days here in the rtp village .. well done all 🙂
      lgb

  9. Well done to all who tipped Montatham!!! Mentioned by a few.

    My own tips went 00P0P0000P….think that spells pop or poop.

    Onwards

    Cheers,

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