Daily Members Post: 19/08/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(119 tips/17 wins/40 places (inc wins) /+71.1 points, advised/ +67.56 Betfair SP)

1.45 York 

#1 – Lahore – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) (15.5 betfair exchange) UP -1

#2 – Soldiers Minute – 1 point win – 50.00 (betfX) 2nd 22/1  -1

#3 – Tarboosh – 1 point win – 50.00 (betfX) 3rd, 28/1> 50/1 SP (even I go EW if he’s that with bookies this morning, never mind)  -1

#4 – Leodis Dream 1/2 point win – 150.00 (betfX) (if not getting that, BFSP the alternative, I can’t see him collapsing) UP – 1/2

3.45 York

#5 – Rajinksy – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 2nd 

#6 – Just Hubert – 1 point win – 15.5 (betfX) UP

 

That’s all for today, x6 tips, as of 8am… don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page to see new content etc write ups at bottom of page… 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.45 York – Make My Day (16/1<) 4/1 UP

4.20 York – Dancin Inthestreet (13/2<) H3 9/4 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainers/Sires

3.30 Killarney – Salsa H4 9/2 UP

Sires/Breeding

3.45 York – Monsieur Lambrays (14/1<) H2 17/2 UP

3.55 Bath – Ishvara H4 5/1 2nd 16/1

Jim Crowley (any)

1.45 York- Mubaalegh 25/1 UP

Kevin Stott

1.45 York – Justanotherbottle (16/1<) 14/1 UP

Straight Track Specialists (trainers/jockeys)

1.45 York – Jonah Jones (any) 14/1 5th

4.20 York – Dandys Beano (any) 16/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

1.45 York – Aplomb 12/1 UP

Losing Tips

3.15 York – Kameko (2nd run) 5/1

3.45 York – Rochester House (1st run) H4 18/1 UP

3.45 York – Summer Moon (1st run) 16/1 WON 16/1>18/1 (24.00), urgh

3.30 Killarney – Salsa (3rd run since tipped) H4 9/2 UP

1.45 York – Arecibo (2nd run) 7/1 4th

 

5.Other/Updates

York Report HERE>>>

York Ebor Pointers from report above + race trends/shortlists etc… in a separate post HERE>>>

*

Tips write ups

1.45

The first thing to say is that obviously Jawwaal or Arecibo may take this but their prices are ridiculous esp for the former who won LTO for us at 12s. He did breeze through that as if he had chunks in hand but the nearside was favoured. They are both hold up types that will need luck, which is fine for bigger prices, but surely not at those odds. They make Staxtons 6s at Ripon look a gift given his rail draw/pace – alas! Anyway… I could have gone EW as I do fear the fav, but that would mean having too many points on the race and I really don’t like doing 1/2 points that often if at all, a rare dart with Leodis who i’ll get onto. IF the top 2 don’t win and I haven’t landed on the winner, well i’ll have gone from a predicted A* to an F in a matter of strides… or seconds… but then I did attend a mediocre comprehensive…

Lahore

A winner for us two starts back here and he won that day with authority come the line. Scott has since lost his 3lb claim so he is in effect 6lb higher but he has everything in his favour again and, like Just Hubert who follows later, I just couldn’t cope with him going in again at this price. He’s best in a big field, buried away, settling off ferocious fractions and running through horses. Like Tarboosh he was lit up/too keen in that small field at Hamilton but did stay on in a manner to suggest he hasn’t gone out of form as quickly as he came into it. His win here two starts back produced a career best RPR 110, TS 93. IF he runs his race, he will be bang there, with luck in running. He shouldn’t be 3x+ the price of the fav in this. Both very similar types.

Soldiers Minute

Like Lahore he hits my ‘trends pointers’ and he’s also Top 6-8 in HRB and it can pay to try and make a case for those lodged there in these races, which I failed to do at Goodwood. I don’t understand his price at all. His two runs this season have been decent – he was last off the bridle in The Wokingham, he tanked through that before flattening (got squeezed also but suspect he needed it). He ran a cracker here LTO off 9-12, running on what appeared to be the wrong part of the track for the first half, Musicka setting sail up this rail, the stalls having been miles away. He ran well, hit some traffic, stayed on. He’s in form. Or was, when last seen. He’s a course winner over the 6f here and is versatile ground wise. (well, GS is fine) Any rain isn’t meant to arrive until after this race though. The jockey knows him well enough, inc riding him in one of his York runs. He has the form to win this and from this mark. His demolition job in a handicap here last May still lives in the memory. A repeat of that and he’s no 50s shot. The question is the trip… this is 5.5f and in a race with so so much pace on paper. I hope Shane isn’t overly aggressive and just tracks the pace around him. But he will be mid/low and prominent. Lahore will be mid/low and held up. In many of those 6f efforts he’s been in front at the 5 pole and is pacey. The yard aren’t having a great season as yet but the horse has run two good races, and he’s a 50s shot, I won’t use that to talk myself out of him. He could cause a surprise here…

Tarboosh 

As could this one… he’s bordering on G3 class I think and I won’t be surprised if he nabs a listed/G3 at some point this season. He is classy. He tanks through his races, finds for pressure and is a ridiculous price for a trainer who’s won this previously. In October 18 he hacked up in a 22 runner Donny handicap off 104 (9-10). This mark/weight will not be the reason for defeat, and he’s just as good as back then. He ran in this race last year when the pace was middle/low, his side behind from halfway. He cut through his group no problem and smashed them to pieces, sadly the others had gone and the pace generally held up that day. He also lost a shoe which wouldn’t have helped. Two starts back he’d have won that Listed race here if getting a clear run, and would have beaten 105+ horses in the process. Trainer/jockey are 5/14,8p together in the last 30 days, 3/8,5p in the last 14. Lee was previously a, how should I phrase it, ‘get their mark down’ jockey for the yard I think – well he didn’t ride many winners, and maybe not many fancied ones. But he does seem to be a go to man this season, no doubt helped by the ‘1 meeting per day only’ rule for jockeys this season.

His chance is enhanced by the pace – if something leads/makes all here then i’ll doff my cap but on paper this should be scorching, and should set up for those more patiently ridden… Watchable / Jabb/ Momentof … the highest drawn, all like to make all/get on with it. They will toe the high numbers into it. To Tarboosh’s left a few stalls away is Copper Knight – he should be up there. For those middle/low… Acclaim The Nation will blast off and is the quickest handicapper in this race from the front, over 5f. Majic J will go forward also and Leodis D may be up there, Soldier’s not far off. Those low/mid will all merge up the middle I think, possibly two groups, the other stands side. I’ve got most bases covered /pace/draw/style wise. That leaves one more..

Leodis Dream

Obviously a proper poke, even more so than the two above, but I couldn’t leave him at those eye-popping odds – i’ll probably declare him to his BFSP price as that 150.00 didn’t last overly long. 90.00 as I type but I think he should drift out some more. Always tricky. On the level of his form earlier in his career, this is a silly price. His new trainer does well with stable switchers 1st time up, (11/44, 18p, +30) and trainer/jockey are 9/34, 13p, +35 in the last year. Come on Hollie! He’s clearly lost his way a bit but his 2019 form would give hope that new connections have a decent handicapper on their hands, if/when they relight his fire. He is only 4 and 6/13,7p in his career, another to hit my ‘trends shortlist’. It may amount to very little today, but that’s the game. I think he will be up there from the off and IF he’s here to run his race/fit, will outrun these odds. One worth tracking whatever he does here.

So, that’s that. I really didn’t like anything else at the odds in this. If the front two in the market fluff their lines and I haven’t landed on the right one, I will be a tad annoyed, which is silly given the race type but you’ve got to have high standards in this game. It looks fiendishly competitive but I didn’t like the likes of Majic J (one of the few unexposed but hopefully the blinkers light him up too much, he can be keen and over-racing did for him LTO) or Aplomb (wants further/softer?).  I suppose either of Tim’s would annoy me but i’m not sure this extra 1/2 furlong is ideal for Copper Knight and I don’t think it will be soft enough for Hyperfocus. But I could be wrong on both fronts. They’re handicapped to win again and both like it here. And typically, I probably haven’t mentioned the winner! I didn’t think Justanotherbottle would be good enough, but maybe that’s what i’ll need come 13.47.

*

3.45 

Rakinsky – i’d be mildly surprised were he out the top 5 here but instead of going EW i’ve thrown in another one which is my preferred method if I can make the case. And it’s not like hes 25s+. I’ll cope with him placing with no return, just.  I can’t understand his price. He will race prominently, is in fine form, stays, gallops and won’t mind if the rain has set in by this point, which is possible. That Ascot run was solid, the front two miles clear, staying on. LTO wasn’t too bad either. That was the first time Richard had ridden him over 16f+ and I suspect he’ll have learnt plenty from it – I suspect he was annoyed with himself after, having waited too long on the front end to get stuck in. All he does is respond for pressure and having got tapped for toe, was staying on again come the line. I think 92 underestimates him over this trip and he’s no 14s shot. Hopefully he hits the front at some point and just grinds it out. Rain would help just because I think he’d handle it better than many in this, but the current going is no excuse. He hits my ‘trends pointers’ also although as with the race above they may have excluded the winner. He’s solid. And a silly price.

Just Hubert – as is my old friend who i’m destined never to get right. But if he were to win here again, at 14s, on the back of the best recent piece of staying form in the race, you’d hear my screams of anguish, much like at Goodwood. The pain. By all accounts he’s just taken a while to come to hand this season – Muir admits to not being hard enough on him at home, in a way running him into fitness/form on the track – smaller yards/those without many potential stars/90+ horses, can tend to do that, nervous of leaving their race at home. He’s talked off as a possible Melbourne Cup horse and if they’re right about that, he will be going close here. I thought he won fairly cosily come the line last time. He always does just enough and can idle when in front, but Tom knows him now. I also think he needs a bit of bullying and can take the mickey out of his jockey if allowed. This trip shouldn’t be a problem and Tom has ample time to wind him up. He won’t mind cut I don’t think, although proper soft a question of sorts – although ran on well at Chester in it a while back. I saw no reason why he shouldn’t repeat/build on his last run, and as such his price was also insulting.

Of the rest…

Here And Why is interesting to a point given he’s won this race before, and easily. It seems a race that Ralph targets. This may have been the plan but LTO he returned after 600+ days off and has since had another 64. I can’t think that was the plan, but maybe he’s fragile and they only have so many darts to through through a season. Softening ground would be an unknown, but the rain may not arrive. I was on the fence at 12s but have gone for the ones where they’re wellbeing is more assured – but he could run a big race at 12s…as I hunt for more change down the side of my sofa…

The rest can beat me at the odds. Beckett has the fav also but up in class, up in trip, and 2nd run after a big effort on seasonal reappearance. I do think he’s well handicapped, and he may storm away (shapes as if will relish it), but i’m both happy to leave at 4s or so, and take on. The unknowns are the reason for why he may progress (trip mainly) but also why the price, for me, is short. He’s as yet proven to stay, and i’d want bigger.

As I am Monsiur L at 8s – he is interesting but up 2 classes, up in the weights and any soft is a question/unknown. Were he 12s/14s, maybe a dilemma. He needs more here and the two selections have a proven higher level of form already, for all that he did hack up LTO and clearly likes the track. Although he’s 1 of 4 to hit the ‘H’ ‘strategy’ (section 2/3 qualifiers with a H next to their name). So, I won’t begrudge him, if i’ve got it wrong.

Clearly those three winning won’t shock me. The rest may do. I’ll leave MJs pair who have some questions to answer now and I didn’t like the rest at all.

Pace wise… Summer Moon may try and lead, Richard K can sit handy on mine from that draw, in a no excuses position SDS may try to get out and across from wide… the rest tend to be mid div or held up further back. I suspect Tom may try and get Just H handier over this distance, but we shall see. Fingers crossed one of them gets the job done.

I’ve decided to start with a bang and if it all goes to pot, tip toe through the rest of the week licking my wounds… maybe… or i’ll follow Martin’s advice and focus on some mundane meetings, C3s &4s!

GL with any bets as always.

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • My selections for York.

    3.15 Lord North
    4.20 Lady in France
    4.50 Selected

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 18/08/20 8:34 PM Reply


  • Everyone will have a fancy in this one, and best of luck with your choices.
    1:45Y LAHORE 14/1 Sky money back if 2.3.4.5
    I’m assuming good to soft 
    Class 2 on G/S over 5 or 5.5F.  I’m suggesting a single figure draw. (very limited stats over this unusual distance)

    From GG’s new and impressive profiler, his stats are.
    going    1 from 2
    5F          3 from 6   and   6F  2 from 10
    class     3 from 10
    track     1 from 2
    jockey   2 from 4
    DSLR     2 from 5
    straight track   5 from 17
    flat track          6 from 16
    galloping track 5 from 19.

    An interesting stat that may help.
    only 1 horse in 72 attempts has won this race, and not won a class 2 before. 
    Half the field has not won a class 2.

    compound dave 18/08/20 9:48 PM Reply


  • c4-5-6 across the cards monday had 4 winners highlight being dandys angel 22/1sp and 13 placed horses.

    todays c3+ video replay list.
    BATH
    15:55 ishvara / city walk / concierge
    YORK
    13:45 jawaal / arecibo / justanotherbottle / came fro the dark
    14:15 broxi / cloudbridge / praise of shadows
    14:45 pyledriver / berkshire rocco / mogul
    15:15 kameko / lord north
    15:45 rajinsky / just hubert / monsieur lambrays / rochester house
    16:20 keep busy / sampers seven / pink sands
    16:50 cairn island / line of departure / cobweb corner
    my picks
    BROXI E/W 22/1 big step up in class but its a big step up in class for everything in the race. nothing in this race has ran in a group 3 before in fact all except on titan rock (class 2) have ran in class 5. so given that unknown for all of them. broxi had plenty in hand when winning on the soft last time out. most have won their previous starts easily. there is no rock solid group form in the race and on that basis i think he is overpriced.

    over in the emrald isle
    killarney
    1:30 apricot rose
    3:00 mere catherine
    3:30 shamiyna
    4:05 tasalka

    as always good luck.

    p.s will we all be kicking ourselves if KAMEKO wins today !!!!!

    Warren Bottomley 19/08/20 12:56 AM Reply


    • Well done Warren on the Irish fancies. 2 wins and a head 2nd

      Jason 19/08/20 3:40 PM Reply


  • A quick reminder to sign up for the Betfair Exchange stake £20 on the York 1-45 get £20 in free bets,
    today’s selections.
    Killarney 2-30 Brazos 20-1 4p
    Sligo 4-25 Shanroe Al C 13-2
    3-50 ONLY if soft Chase End Charlie 40-1
    York.
    1-45. I’m sticking with :
    Copper Knight 25-1
    A Momentofmadness 20-1
    2-15. Broxi 25-1
    3-15. Lord North
    3-45. Eddystone Rock 20-1
    4-20. Lady In France 12-1
    4-50. Mutazawwed 12-1
    gl all get ready for the cavalry charge 🙂

    martin whittle 19/08/20 8:32 AM Reply


    • with the betfair offer your picks must be matched BEFORE the off bfsp not allowed

      martin whittle 19/08/20 8:43 AM Reply


      • The trouble with betfair offers is that you’ll lose the 2% commission which has more value over time than the occasional special offer.

        Chris Albin 19/08/20 9:23 AM Reply


        • I do not think that is correct.

          There may well be some people on here who have multiple accounts with bookmakers who can take account of special offers with various bookmakers but they cannot be winning punters to still have access to such. The offers Betfair have are no big deal but they do have BFSP and you can get matched at odds as well without fear of being restricted etc on the exchange. So long term realistically most reasonably successful punters will be on the exchanges due to necessity but the 2% only makes a difference if you are just scraping a profit long term overall, in which case you should likely be focusing your time on something else.

          If you can go into a local bookie and get a bet on that is a different issue…

          Good luck Martin

          Martin Colwell 19/08/20 10:08 AM Reply


          • 3% is a lot to a high turnover pro punter isn’t it? Maybe not on horses but I’d have thought so on football etc. I could be wrong but you either have 5% commission but still have access to offers Inc Bog on the sportsbook… Or you choose 2% on all exchange bets and forfeit any offers etc. That’s what I’ve done, mainly as yep didn’t have access to many anyway, no bog with sportsbook and can’t get more than 10 on anyway.
            Every little helps!
            Josh

            Josh 19/08/20 10:38 AM Reply


            • I know they say 3% is a lot to a high level punter but I do not see how that is true if you are trying to make decent money from horse racing. You need to be at 10% or better profit to make it worthwhile. That is achievable via the exchanges.

              Football betting is very hard, especially in the top divisions in Europe. You are better to pick off at league one or two or in Scotland for a profit. You will not get lots on unlike in the Premier League, where you can pile in to a very efficient market where the syndicates have sucked up the value.

              Golf is where the big profits are due to odds availability on the exchanges and action every week. but it takes a lot of data work.

              I can only speak from living this day to day.

              Martin Colwell 19/08/20 11:02 AM Reply


              • So in your view, having the 5% but still access to the offers from the exchange or sports book is better than taking 2% on all exchange bets? That’s all we’re discussing really. I’d have thought latter better if you bet plenty on exchange but can see alternative view esp if you still get BOG on the sports book etc and those money back offers. Maybe there isn’t much in it at all and for small stakes punters the 5% plus offers is a better deal? I assume that’s what you’re saying and can see the argument.

                Josh 19/08/20 11:14 AM Reply


                • Maybe I am confusing others? Take the 2% deal and forget about offers. It will pay over time against the 5% deal.

                  Martin Colwell 19/08/20 12:02 PM Reply


                • To put things into context, if you’re betting £20 on each bet at betfair and you get a 11.0 winner you pay £10 commission @ 5%, £4 @ 2%.
                  I average around 70-80 bets per week, so getting winners at that price 3 or 4 times a week is easily achievable for me as an average therefore saving between £20 plus a week from avoiding offers and taking the 2% option.
                  Those £20 offers don’t look so great now do they?
                  All my betting is BFSP, I rarely waste my time with bookmakers BOG nonsense and managing multiple accounts.

                  Chris Albin 19/08/20 12:14 PM Reply


            • Agree with Josh the 2% option for me is the best with betfair, remember they are only doing this to stop customers moving to other exchanges who do 2% standard.
              Friend of mine wishes for me to put her bets on my bets and she is paying me 50% of the winnings for doing this, good gal, noticed the staggering difference from 2% to 5% commission charged, and her bets are only £30 at the moment, must have her over to contact betfair for the 2%.
              No time to go through the books but if betting at £100 bets it could well be hundreds a week you are saving, for myself everyone should be on the 2% until Paddy Power stop you.
              Colin

              cleafe 19/08/20 1:34 PM Reply


    • I only use BF for my win system bets (H1,2,3,4 etc) and any other win bets, i’m more of an EW punter so taking advantage of these offers make sense to me as my turnover isn’t that big, so saying that iv’e had 5X £4 bets matched:
      Lahore @ 17.70
      Soldiers Minute @ 36.0
      Tarboosh @ 57.39
      Leodis Dream @ 140.0
      Copper Knight @ 42.09
      a winner would be nice but i’ll still get my £20 worth of free bets tomorrow.

      martin whittle 19/08/20 11:34 AM Reply


      • 2 winners @ 12-1 and 11-1 bog a 25-1 place and i get my £20 worth of free bets tomorrow, but the icing on the cake was the 3-45 with a couple of services i use chipping in i had the first four home 1pt ew,0.75pt ew, 0.5 pt ew, 0.25 pt ew in that order 🙂

        martin whittle 19/08/20 5:22 PM Reply


  • An 11/2 place and a loser on Tuesday.

    Three for York on Wednesday:

    2.45, Mogul – fit enough now to outclass this lot. 2 points win.

    3.45, Indianapolis – up in distance here which should suit, Atzeni in the saddle, can come through from off the pace. 1 point each way.

    4.50, Perotto – highly rated by his trainer, still improving, up two classes here though. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 19/08/20 10:00 AM Reply


  • All over Indianapolis in the staying handicap

    Royal Ascot form red hot, Glorious Goodwood run says he wants a further trip, breeding too.

    Done him ew at 6s, 5 places. Big class dr

    Rick 19/08/20 10:16 AM Reply


  • 14.15 York Acomb Stakes Notes.

    No selections, just observations as the race is trickier than on first appearance. Cloudbridge sets the clear standard clocking 38.58 mph, next in is Praise of Shadows 37.98. Darvel 37.78, Spycatcher 37.67 with Gear Up and Royal Scimitar closely matched on 37.46…Broxi is the interesting one 36.93 at a bigger price…the tricky bit is assessing the previous form of all the runners ..hence my indecision and no selection…if you were to twist my arm would go for Gear Up as CD winner and at 9/1 represents some value but no bet for me….not very helpful so apologies for that.

    silver 19/08/20 12:28 PM Reply


    • Did it again Silver, thanks 🙂

      Mark Curtis 19/08/20 2:29 PM Reply


      • You had more confidence than me!!! Glad you took the plunge…

        silver 19/08/20 2:41 PM Reply


  • 14.45. York.

    Selection. Juan Elcano 1/2 pt e/w.

    With plus 23.4 pts the above is worth a total of 1pt against Mogul….The latter sets the standard along with Berkshire Rocco and Pyledriver…the latter has beaten Mogul so cannot be discounted and that would be my second choice agsinst Mogul but will stick with Juan Elcano as I think the price is worth an e/w punt…all the best with whatever you are backing today.

    silver 19/08/20 1:25 PM Reply


    • Bit miffed that my second choice, Pyledriver, hampered my selection but did have a saver so personally, a good result though in terms of selections minus 1pt, so discounting the Gear Up winner at 9/1 a loss on the day for recording purposes, of 1pt so 22.4pts in profit going forwards.

      silver 19/08/20 2:54 PM Reply


  • Well with my 28/1 place. Josh’s big priced places and the couple over in Ireland and thanks to silver for giving me a bit of extra confidence on pyledriver. It’s Not been a bad day.
    Cheers guys 🙂

    warren Bottomley 19/08/20 3:45 PM Reply


    • Glad to here that Warren…just shows the benefit of Josh’s blog when you get a variety of opinions that helps in making the final decision on what to back…hopefully the good fortune continues.

      silver 19/08/20 4:34 PM Reply


      • I agree silver there is gold on these pages everyday. 🙂

        warren Bottomley 19/08/20 7:54 PM Reply


Post A Reply