Daily Members Post: 18/08/20 (complete)

Qual

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(113 tips/17 wins/37 places (inc wins) /+76.6 points, advised/ +73.06 Betfair SP)

NONE on Tuesday.

Hmm, I could use the slow start as an excuse for Lion Power (but i knew that was a risk pre race), but he never really went a yard and the winner came from the back. It didn’t help but he’ll no doubt now prove an expensive horse to track/follow! He’ll be thrown in if ever returning to Southwell but may not be missed. There’s definitely turf ability there if they can find the key, although I’ve said that about a few in recent days… moving on, with eyes forward… Soaring Start is the one to take from that. He probably won’t be missed next time but Danny T didn’t help Kevin by staying up the middle so he had to make his challenge on the far side, which the evidence would suggest wasn’t the place to be at Catterick. If he somehow bagged this nearside rail, he’d have won that. A prominent racer who clearly handles cut, he finished his race of well so the wind op appears to have worked, for now. One to track, and we shall see if he’s a decent price on his next couple of starts. 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.00 Bev – Afandem (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

YORK EBOR MEETING STATS POINTERS HERE>>>

*

£1.99/ 28 day trials galore…

From The Stables... if you missed my various emails about this £1.99 28 day trial, to a unique service inc trainer quotes from 15 top yards, you can read it HERE>>>  Around 50 of you have dipped your toe in and you’ll know within 28 days if the service adds to your enjoyment of the game or not, and whether it’s value. They’ve been going for 10 years now, with Tony Stafford holding it all together, so with any luck its suits some of you.

That service is 1 of 10 from my friends at Surewin and looks the most interesting to me- but then with my focus on trainers etc I probably would say that. There’s a golf service, ‘traditional’ racing tipsters etc all for you to consider HERE>>> All with £1.99 trials for a good period of time, all through ClickBank but the chaps at Surewin offer 30 day money back guarantees anyway. They do all the proofing and sifting, uncovering gems, so we don’t have to. Take a look HERE>>>

*

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

40 Responses

  1. Another for the Lavelle micro, will post these until Josh takes over in September (when I remember)

    Fontwell 15.15 Shiroccan Roll

  2. A quick question, i was doing a bit of research into the York 1-45 tomorrow and with 22 left in i wa trying to find if there was any draw bias? i quite like Amomentofmadness drawn 22 who likes to lead and Copper Knight drawn 15 who runs prominently will they be on the right side ? any thoughts ?

    1. hmm on good ground I don’t think there is, not historically, although looking at the going stick readings, as of today, middle to low are riding marginally faster (6.9 vs 6.8 standside)

      In these sorts of races/tracks it could be that pace is more important and on paper there is so much of it. Checking wind direction will be important also, if it’s strong either way, or none.

      The sustained pace could be high…Watchable 20 / Jabb 21/ A Moment of Madness 22 in the highest draws all get on with it. Next along who will be up there is Copper Knight in 15 I think,
      Then of the far side, Acclaim The Nation in 8, Leodis Dream in 6 and Just Another Bottle in 1 – well they can all go forward.

      So, fascinating, could be a pace burn up, but then on flip side it can hold up here. A couple of pace setters could grab rails which makes it fascinating.

      But the strong travellers/patiently ridden ones.. Jawwaal / Arecibo / Lahore will have a perfect set up for them

      The market hasn’t missed the former at 11/2 as I type, who’ll hit the basic Dods angle but thankfully we were on LTO at 12s. He is the most likely winner and is still ahead of his mark, and this will set up for him – but he will need luck in running and that price won’t be tempting me in I don’t think! But could be a case of an EW race as if he gets a clear run he is the one to beat. A strange market at the moment, he’s the only one moving in price.

      Josh

      1. For anyone studying York for tomorrow, it’s been raining all morning here near Leeds. Supposed to clear up this PM.

      2. Maybe not relevent for today but I think only 3 horse since 2002 have won the ebor drawn under 14. May translate to the other big field races at York.

    2. Hi Martin. If you’very got access to geegeez, Dave Rendham did an areticle on draw bias on the 13/ 04 /20. In a nutshell 5f low bias, 6f and 7f not much. But 1m and 1m1f strong bias to low with those horses which like to lead. Worth a read as interesting. He has also covered some other courses.
      Par

        1. It is a very good article, the weather is changeable this week and so value in price must be the key here.

          Unless the horse is really bad drawn and is a value price you can have a go. Interesting that punters want to play these big handicaps when there are easier races elsewhere.

          1. For some mad reason Martin, some of us like near impossible challenges and it’s where we get our puzzle solving kicks! Professional punting wise I’m quite sure they’re races to be avoided, but while i’ve tried and tried, I just can’t help myself – even though of course that means some painful losing runs at times. The daily ‘lesser’ races are the bread and butter though and i’d agree that should be the first port of call. But it very much depends what your drive is in this game, what you enjoy etc and we’re all different on that front!
            Backing a 12s+ Festival winner say, of a big handicaps, is just so much more satisfying than the same in some midweek race, even though the latter is easier and pays the same! That’s the game.

  3. Selections:
    Bev. 13.00. Coley’s Koko 1/2 point e/w
    Bev. 13.30. Rhythm 1/2 pt e/w.

    Have done 1/2 pt ew double just to put the final nail into the selections as recently, when I have put them up they run like drains!! Hopefully, they will run better today and the plus 3pts I have left won’t be reduced to zero by the end of the day!!!

    Reasons i.e the boring bit ….based on sires, speed, trainers and draws….no necessarily the best, just a question what I have considered to be the deciding factor when looking at the above criteria….in the case of Coley’s Koko it was the speed figure that swayed me in the choice, running faster than Bay of Whispers and Brazen Bell……Hannon has the better trainer record in Bay of Whispers but is faster than Brazen Belle clocking 38.40 mph to Brazen’s 35.81 mph…though the latter was in a C3 and the former was in a C5…both are live dangers to my choice but Bay is too short and did not like the speed of Bay ….Coley’s Koko ran 39.22 mph in a 5f fast race at Thirsk LTO and is a decent 6/1…hence the choice as has a decent draw as well….Liberty Blaze may be the unknown unraced horse to out run the odds of 13/2 but at the price thought Coley’s the percentage call given the speed of the race it contested….the average speed of 5f distance is 60.37 secs or 37.27 mph according to my figures so the horses mentioned are above this by some distance with the exception of Brazen Belle. The draw and price puts me off selecting Brazen Belle despite the speed and the good trainers record.

    13.30. Bev…reasons to to be cheerful with Rhythm..1,2,3….Hannon, draw, speed…best trainer, good draw and fastest speed …..Beechwood = 36.75 mph. Prudhoe = 37.70 mph and Rhythm = 38.00 mph…..dangers of the unraced horses are Blissful Song as has an ok good draw and pedigree is fine….Halwa Azyan has had a run at Wolvs and though 11 or so lengths behind the winner that day Zoetic…the latter won well yesterday so that horse may well outrun the odds of 16/1 as has a good draw and pedigree…

    Hopefully, the return covers the costs of the outlay with a bit of profit…fingers crossed the curse of putting them up does not strike …all the best with whatever you are backing today and last , but not least, a big thankyou to Warren for consistently putting up his horses and selections for consideration, great dedication to find the time to do this considering work commitments etc. they do help and you have had some great winners …….all the best with whatever you are backing today…

    1. You’re suffering my ‘curse of the email’ John – I haven’t emailed out a winning tip on the blog for weeks I don’t think! So very annoying, but that’s the game sadly. Probably linked to mainly emailing out tips etc on Saturday’s/Festivals posts which are the most competitive etc But for those who just read the 3-4 emails a week and not the daily posts, they probably think I don’t have a clue what i’m doing! 🙂

      GL today
      Josh

      1. Hi Josh…your tips have been going great over the past so no worries there…you are far more dedicated and consistent than I am!! I have been holding my own when not tipping on here so gave the posting a rest but have braved it today to see how it goes…may be just superstitious non sense but it is about getting your head in the right place…not up your own ****!! …..so fingers crossed we both are able to break the “curse”!! All the best

    2. I think the jockey booking of Jack Mitchell is very interesting on Halwa Azyan. Jack Mitchell has gone up to Beverley for just one ride in this very routine race. Don;t think he has ever ridden for Richard Fahey before, and he seems to be an up and coming jockey. I noticed he has a ride for the trainer tomorrow at York also, but even so.
      I thought from pedigree, the horse may need considerably further than 5f though. Dam was placed over 1m (as 2yo, and 1m2f. Granddam won a Listed race over 1m2f and a 1m winner at 2 years old. Sire was a sprinter but even so. Sales price increase as a 2yo is encouraging though

      1. Hi Matty, Could be right about distance and Zoetic won on soft so going may be a problem as well, just thought the horse was an interesting runner and overpriced but would want a bigger price than currently on offer to get involved…. famous last words!!

    3. Well half the curse lifted……13.00…disappointing from my selection… the winner, Roman Encounter, clocked 35.90 mph whilst my selection had already clocked 39.22 mph previously….figure that one out! Probably went off too hard at the outset and picked off by the plodders in behind ces’t la vie…..62.66 seconds for the winner over 5f ….an average horse does it in 60.37 seconds so overall a below average display all round. Fortunately, got hit by the Rhythm stick and returned at 6/1 so salvation there…..3pts wagered 7.2 pts returned so better than a slap in the face…well done to those that went for the Ryan angle….all the best

  4. A shocker on Monday, 0/3. I usually do OK with dross racing!

    Two at Fontwell today:

    3.45, Darebin – Local trainer in form, class winner, course winner, 7LB claimer on board to lighten the load, if the spark is there he may go in at a good price? 1 point each way.

    5.50 Fontwell, All Clenched Up (sounds painful) – His trainer is solid in these type of races and is in good form. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  5. Stotty wins the first on a well backed, debutant sprinter, from the Ryan yard, who looks one to follow.
    Made up over 10 lengths to win, after being slow from the stalls and hindered in the first 1/4 mile.

      1. Oh Chris, we are meant to find those nuggets before the 12/1 shot bolts up haha.
        Any geegeez gold users would have been knocked over with the number of report angles they hit within the racecard.
        I didn’t have a penny on sadly.
        I suppose I should go and look at their 2YO record which given he gets support from one of big sheiks also, means some better bred ones/wants wins early.

        1. I was only told after it had won! I’d already written how the performance impressed me by then. Gold didn’t have that precise stat though so look forward to your insights.

          1. Oh yep , they don’t have race record trends as yet, certainly ‘in card’ – wouldn’t be surprised if Matt has that on a list of upgrades given, like HRB, their data is purchased/licensed from Racing Post I think, or whatever company supplies all of them, as raw data.

            That hit 6 report angles for setting which I have which are pretty loose, and possibly I may not have altered them at all…
            Jockey Course 365 days… 6/23, 11p (+ 1/2 point SP though)
            Trainer Jockey… 14 day (4/11,8p), 30 day (10/31, 17p)
            Trainer/Jockey 1 year (29/126, 52p, +123 SP)
            Trainer Snippets 1st start (18/117, 37p.. lose 3 points to SP, but AE 1.13, IV 2.01 – so twice as many 1st time out winners against the trainer ranks as a whole)
            Trainer 2YO 1st Run , 2 year stats… 14/93, 29p.

            I flicked through cards this morning for interest, mainly with handicaps and to see whether to flag anything as a quiet day – clearly with wonderful hindsight I could have just listed the above! Damn. Although I have to be very careful as to what I pull from Gold given thats a subs service etc

            Josh

      2. He only had 3 runners at Beverly along with 2 lavelle runners stuck a few quid on each blind, job done. If only it was always that simple lol 🙂

  6. Mine for today

    2:45 Chapmanshype
    3:15 Shiroccan Roll
    3:45 Pointed and Sharp (Nap)
    5:50 All Clenched Up

    Good luck to all
    Cheers,

  7. thanks for the replies to my earlier post, just got back in after running around like a mad thing all morning only to find most of my ew value bets no longer any value, Umndeni, Ferrobin, Alcock and brown !!! 33>6’s all i’m left with is Darebin and Un Beau Roman at Fontwell.
    Well apart from a complete lunatic £1 ew on Pierlow 4-50 @66-1 bog .
    There was one at Beverley i quite like at a big price 3-00 Rosy Ryan @40-1 again just £1 ew , probably £2 ew on the other 2 and keep the rest of my cash for York.

  8. Signed up to trainer quotes using your discounted free trial. Gary Moore 13:45 Fontwell – Shantou Master – “Best Watched”. Lo and behold lands a monster gamble from 33s into 6s. Makes me question the validity of those trainer quote services.

    1. Hi George,

      Yes that would me in truth!
      I believe the G Moore has put them onto some biggies before- I suspect some elements of that may be more owner related, esp if they know they’ve gambling owners in the yard – you’d prefer a ‘no thoughts/comment’ with that sort.
      It is the nature of the ‘trainer quotes’ beast that there will be some horses which don’t do as the trainer genuinely expects and surprises all- however in that example the money was clearly an indication that he wasn’t best watched! But, that’s the point of risk free trials – 28 days to read, absorb, see if it helps or not.
      In truth I don’t know who runs trainer quotes in the sense of the individual who speaks to the yard/contact, and the relationship they have.
      In part that’s why I was more vocal on From The Stables, as Tony Stafford is the one that gets the info from said yards etc and I suspect his relationships may mean a fairer reflection, I don’t know.
      But again, people may absorb that for 28 days and think its not for them.
      There will be plenty of gems, just as case of whether they are communicated in a way which is useful. But both have been around for a good while, and they do have to pay some hefty fees to the trainer for the privilege, so i can only assume enough people join/stay/find useful, otherwise they wouldn’t be viable given the costs.
      Josh

      1. Hi Josh,

        Thanks for the reply. Perhaps being a bit too cynical as it was the first runner and I read Gary Moore did point them in the right direction for one at Goodwood at 50s. Still for £2 quid its a lot of content so will stick around for the 28 days along with ‘From the Stables’ and see if its for me. Keep up the good work.

        1. Oh it’s always best to be too cynical with any service etc, it’s better to be that way than the opposite. That can get you in to trouble as I well know from my first dip into a service 12 years ago or so now.

          The only way with those types of services is to get under the bonnet and experience them do. Do let us know how you get on in a few weeks time/your thoughts. Everything is transparent this end and it may be useful for me to know moving forwards.

          Of course they are through ClickBank etc so you could even get your £2 quid back after 28 days if you so wanted!

          His Goodwood 50s winner, fancied by Warren on here from memory – well just shows you such info/that service doesn’t have much impact on market, I think he drifted if anything! It isn’t impossible that Moore, and maybe a few other trainers, have owners who’ve given instructions not to post anything in public.
          But yep, time will tell! But it is in the trainer’s benefit not to keep sending in duff or mis-leading info, generally.

          Josh

  9. This flat tipping malarkey is a funny old game… Gary at Always Back Winners was having a torrid time – well, that’s probably harsh but from a season high or +51 points (1 point EW) back down to +22 points a couple of days ago (although in this game dropping 30 points is nothing imo) … his last three tips have all won, including Amadeus Grey 10s or so. Now up to a seasons high or around +55 points or so… I only post to just show you how quickly things can change in this game, both ways! But, class is permanent and all that. We shall see if he can build on it, but its a fickle game and I suspect many have jumped ship. 80% off first month trial here… https://always-back-winners.com/racing-to-profit-promotion-ref-rtpjoshw/

      1. Good to hear Warren, he is the only other ‘tipster’ I follow blind – I like his approach and he does know these flat handicaps well, esp weekday stuff, and has the eye for it, and his 5 year record or so is silly really for someone who tips on the day around 8am or so – some want plenty more action etc but I like his less is more approach, esp given how much goes on here! But, my bank with him is looking solid enough! I did only start at 5s EW on all tips which is how I like to play it. The % of bank approach is interesting and done very well also. Hopefully he can kick on but then again if he can average +50 on turf and +50 on sand over winter every year, we won’t be doing too badly!

  10. Observations on the 16.25 Kempton…..Guru too short to back so looked at opposing the Gosden runner and found Qaasid and Round Six at bigger prices based on pedigree….Kempton has been riding slow for a good while now and think Round Six represents good value at 18/1 for an each way poke..ran at Salisbury over 6f on gd to firm in a decent race and time and was stated as staying on over the 6 f so should get the 7f here…on my adjusted figures with Guru has the beating of the Gosden shortie though would not be surprised if Guru won…personally will have a small e/w on the Balding runner and will be interested to see how Qaasid runs though will not wager on the latter…

    1. Round Six BSP 18.00 goes in so pleased with that. Justifies my figures when the horse is ridden correctly. Back on track with two wins from three today. “Curse” lifted

      1. Well that should lift your mood John! Great day, I was too busy with tomorrow’s posts and missed the bugger! I’ve a habit of that haha. Damn. Well done, great price. Still amazes me when a Balding/Murphy horse, esp unexposed etc goes in at those sort of odds.
        Josh

        1. Appreciate the comments….certainly boosts the confidence levels when the calculations work out…more of the same later in the week I hope!!!??

  11. just spotted this in the last at Kempton, Ilhabela Fact 12-1 £1.5 ew, drops back to C5 ,optimum trip all 5 career wins have come at Kempton thought a tad overpriced.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.