2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
The Flat 2020
(113 tips/17 wins/37 places (inc wins) /+76.6 points, advised/ +73.06 Betfair SP)
#1 – 2.20 Catt – Lion Tower – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 9/1 (BV?WH) UP, blew the start, game over, although in truth he was never travelling that well -1
That’s all for today, as of 08.46, write up below inc some Trainer/Jockey combo pointers of interest…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
2.20 Catt – Lion Tower H3 11/1 UP
4.Horses to Follow
1.45 Catt – One Hart – (1st run) 15/2 UP
Firstly, as its a quiet day, some stats of potential interest, for today and moving forwards… using the excellent Geegeez reports , and this time the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, there’s 3 at the top of the pile for their track record in the last year, all race types…
- Catterick: O’Meara/Tudhope – 5/10,7p
- Uttoxeter: Dr Newland/Sam T-D: 5/13,7p
- Uttoxeter: Jonjo O’Neil/ Junior : 5/10, 8p
They’ve 7 runners between them today. I haven’t looked at them, I’ll leave that to you! But possibly of some use either today, or moving forwards.
Geegeez –don’t forget you can have a free account, all you have to do is register. No payment details etc – each and every day you get free access to various content including the reports and the odd ‘free to air’ racecard etc. Its the no brainer of all no brainers, especially if you like picking out your own winners – and in fact, whatever the free access is on said day, is a decent ‘way in’ or focal point in itself. It will improve your punting…
Today’s Races of the Day are: (free access to the racecards etc which are on a different planet to anything in the Racing Post)
- 13.30 Tipperary
- 13.45 Catterick
- 15.00 Tipperary
- 15.40 Uttoxeter
Lion Tower… (MJs sire stats above as the ‘way in’)
As I type at 09.03 he’s being nibbled at – I had a 30 minute lay in today to 7.30, and that error looks like it’s cost us 2/3 points, although of course he has to win first and if he does, i’m sure we won’t be too annoyed. 8s is everywhere but hopefully you’ve still got a Bet365 or BetV account (now back out to 9s again with WH). In any case 8/9s is still a bit overpriced I think. Maybe he’ll hold at that and in the 10-15 mins leading up to the race he will be bigger on the machine – always hard to judge. If you’re a Betfair Exch player you’d best have not got involved yet! Even 2s and 5s makes a massive difference at this time in the day, in a race like that, given every bookie generally follows the exch price. I sound like a broken record on that front, but if you do wade in early on there, (outside of the big C2/festival races with 50k+ liquidity in at this time) you are ruining for everyone else imo. Onto the horse…
I’m pretty convinced he’s chucked in off 77, it’s just a case of when it all clicks again. He dotted up in a couple of Southwell races earlier in the year – that looked to be riding deep there and takes some getting. No bother to him and he looks a unit. He returned at Ponte four starts back off 80 – fluffed the start, out the back, and somehow flew home up the straight into 2nd, winner long gone. Plenty may have needed the run but it was still an effort which suggested the handicapper doesn’t yet have him. The Newmarket run was decent in a much deeper race than this, a C4 3YO only handicap, 80s horse. That race is working out well, 7/16, 9p since. This is weaker.
Strangely for this yard, and this sire, i’m not convinced he wants fast ground. At Newmarket he didn’t look comfortable to me, and he definitely didn’t at Leicester – i’d need to watch it again but on first viewing he appeared to change his legs a few times, didn’t really pick up for pressure, wandered around – that can be a sign of them feeling the ground, and he was a bit wobbly at Ponte also, and Newmarket. It may be no surprise that his best runs have come at Southwell, and his best run on turf was two starts back at Ayr, on soft. Well, it was his best run in terms of RPR Top Speed figure, and ignoring LTO he posted three consistent RPRs, 79, 81, 80. His last win an 85. He’s off 77 today. He was a bit buzzy there and got caught in a pocket for a time – he does look a proper galloper. But encouragingly he was staying on all the way to the line, not beaten far, in a bunch finish. They put the blinkers on him at Leicester which may have had an adverse effect, they try the visor today. But at least he’s now used to some sort of headgear.
The other positive/what lured me in… was the his draw in 1, and the fact that Kevin Ryan’s horse is the only one in this to have lead on recent starts. In this visor, and given its Joe Fanning, i’d be shocked if he didn’t boot him out and try to make all- the jockeys may decide to cross to this nearside rail which they can do when its soft, and if he can lead, and bag this rail up the straight, we could have some fun. Of course he may blow a gasket again or just be out of form / a bit of a monkey. And he may not handle coming down the hill. He has questions to answer obviously, hence why he was put in at 11s or so. But, for me, there’s enough there to cling to at his price. This is the weakest handicap he’s run in on turf, and this 7f could be right up his street. Hopefully he doesn’t fluff the start – and if he’s too keen again, so be it, but I think they should try and settle him on the front end – he enjoyed making all in his final Southwell win. And he’s in the right place in HRB ratings which is always a positive, esp for a bigger priced one.
An interesting outsider for me.
Of the rest…
I was happy to take on the top two. Tudhope’s is unexposed but the ground a complete unknown – if he handles it he’d be thereabouts, but 4s to roll that dice. Not for me. Soaring Star is unexposed on handicap debut, but has had a wind op, 57 days off – and testing ground if you’ve a wind niggle may not be ideal. If he’s A1 he could go well. And Stott may be aggressive – hopefully not. The market may guide and he’s weak enough as I type, and he’s yet to win a race – 5s or so always seem short enough to me in a 10+ runner race for a maiden, whatever they do.
Tadaawol – the proper ‘been there and done it’ horse in this, a CD winner, he is very very well handicapped now and arrives ‘in form’, having been ‘running on’ LTO. He does handle soft although his jockey could have a better record here… 1/46, 11p last 5 years. From this draw they may be more aggressive with him. I can see the case and why he’s being nibbled at , and he could be the main danger.
Pace/running style… you do need to prominent over this CD ideally (yes yes, as you do at Ripon in sprints, doh) and there’s no excuses for mine – surely Joe will know there’s a lack of pace on paper in this, and it’s there to be dictated. In any case he should be in a ‘no excuses’ position if breaking on terms. Some of the others who can race prominent are drawn wide, those in boxes 9/10/11 – their jockeys have a dilemma. Go forward/fear getting trapped wide, or use up too much gas to get a position, or take them back and ride for luck.
We will find out soon enough.
This week… today’s ‘Micro Monday’ will be an Ebor Meeting special – i’ll try and dig out a handful of trainer / jockey stats and see what else I can find of interest. I can hope York goes better than Goodwood did! But i’ll tread carefully, although for whatever reason I just can’t help myself in these big field C2 handicaps. Maybe its misplaced pride in just wanting to solve the puzzle and be right. I’ll pick and choose which trends races/handicaps etc to highlight but as a minimum they’ll be a few ‘trainer race record pointers’.