Daily Members Post: 17/08/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(113 tips/17 wins/37 places (inc wins) /+76.6 points, advised/ +73.06 Betfair SP)

#1 – 2.20 Catt – Lion Tower – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365)  9/1 (BV?WH) UP, blew the start, game over, although in truth he was never travelling that well -1

That’s all for today, as of 08.46, write up below inc some Trainer/Jockey combo pointers of interest…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None.

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainers/Sires

2.20 Catt – Lion Tower H3 11/1  UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

1.45 Catt – One Hart – (1st run) 15/2 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Some Stats…

Firstly, as its a quiet day, some stats of potential interest, for today and moving forwards… using the excellent Geegeez reports , and this time the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, there’s 3 at the top of the pile for their track record in the last year, all race types

  • Catterick: O’Meara/Tudhope – 5/10,7p
  • Uttoxeter: Dr Newland/Sam T-D: 5/13,7p
  • Uttoxeter: Jonjo O’Neil/ Junior : 5/10, 8p

 

They’ve 7 runners between them today. I haven’t looked at them, I’ll leave that to you! But possibly of some use either today, or moving forwards.

Geegeezdon’t forget you can have a free account, all you have to do is register. No payment details etc – each and every day you get free access to various content including the reports and the odd ‘free to air’ racecard etc. Its the no brainer of all no brainers, especially if you like picking out your own winners – and in fact, whatever the free access is on said day, is a decent ‘way in’ or focal point in itself. It will improve your punting…

Today’s Races of the Day are: (free access to the racecards etc which are on a different planet to anything in the Racing Post) 

  • 13.30 Tipperary
  • 13.45 Catterick
  • 15.00 Tipperary
  • 15.40 Uttoxeter

You can register for free on this page HERE>>>

 

*

 

Lion Tower… (MJs sire stats above as the ‘way in’)

As I type at 09.03 he’s being nibbled at – I had a 30 minute lay in today to 7.30, and that error looks like it’s cost us 2/3 points, although of course he has to win first and if he does, i’m sure we won’t be too annoyed. 8s is everywhere but hopefully you’ve still got a Bet365 or BetV account (now back out to 9s again with WH). In any case 8/9s is still a bit overpriced I think. Maybe he’ll hold at that and in the 10-15 mins leading up to the race he will be bigger on the machine – always hard to judge. If you’re a Betfair Exch player you’d best have not got involved yet! Even 2s and 5s makes a massive difference at this time in the day, in a race like that, given every bookie generally follows the exch price.  I sound like a broken record on that front, but if you do wade in early on there, (outside of the big C2/festival races with 50k+ liquidity in at this time) you are ruining for everyone else imo. Onto the horse…

I’m pretty convinced he’s chucked in off 77, it’s just a case of when it all clicks again. He dotted up in a couple of Southwell races earlier in the year – that looked to be riding deep there and takes some getting. No bother to him and he looks a unit. He returned at Ponte four starts back off 80 – fluffed the start, out the back, and somehow flew home up the straight into 2nd, winner long gone. Plenty may have needed the run but it was still an effort which suggested the handicapper doesn’t yet have him. The Newmarket run was decent in a much deeper race than this, a C4 3YO only handicap, 80s horse. That race is working out well, 7/16, 9p since. This is weaker.

Strangely for this yard, and this sire, i’m not convinced he wants fast ground. At Newmarket he didn’t look comfortable to me, and he definitely didn’t at Leicester – i’d need to watch it again but on first viewing he appeared to change his legs a few times, didn’t really pick up for pressure, wandered around – that can be a sign of them feeling the ground, and he was a bit wobbly at Ponte also, and Newmarket. It may be no surprise that his best runs have come at Southwell, and his best run on turf was two starts back at Ayr, on soft. Well, it was his best run in terms of RPR Top Speed figure, and ignoring LTO he posted three consistent RPRs, 79, 81, 80. His last win an 85. He’s off 77 today. He was a bit buzzy there and got caught in a pocket for a time – he does look a proper galloper. But encouragingly he was staying on all the way to the line, not beaten far, in a bunch finish. They put the blinkers on him at Leicester which may have had an adverse effect, they try the visor today. But at least he’s now used to some sort of headgear.

The other positive/what lured me in… was the his draw in 1, and the fact that Kevin Ryan’s horse is the only one in this to have lead on recent starts. In this visor, and given its Joe Fanning, i’d be shocked if he didn’t boot him out and try to make all- the jockeys may decide to cross to this nearside rail which they can do when its soft, and if he can lead, and bag this rail up the straight, we could have some fun. Of course he may blow a gasket again or just be out of form / a bit of a monkey. And he may not handle coming down the hill. He has questions to answer obviously, hence why he was put in at 11s or so. But, for me, there’s enough there to cling to at his price. This is the weakest handicap he’s run in on turf, and this 7f could be right up his street. Hopefully he doesn’t fluff the start – and if he’s too keen again, so be it, but I think they should try and settle him on the front end – he enjoyed making all in his final Southwell win. And he’s in the right place in HRB ratings which is always a positive, esp for a bigger priced one.

An interesting outsider for me.

Of the rest…

I was happy to take on the top two. Tudhope’s is unexposed but the ground a complete unknown – if he handles it he’d be thereabouts, but 4s to roll that dice. Not for me. Soaring Star is unexposed on handicap debut, but has had a wind op, 57 days off – and testing ground if you’ve a wind niggle may not be ideal. If he’s A1 he could go well. And Stott may be aggressive – hopefully not. The market may guide and he’s weak enough as  I type, and he’s yet to win a race – 5s or so always seem short enough to me in a 10+ runner race for a maiden, whatever they do.

Tadaawol – the proper ‘been there and done it’ horse in this, a CD winner, he is very very well handicapped now and arrives ‘in form’, having been ‘running on’ LTO. He does handle soft although his jockey could have a better record here… 1/46, 11p last 5 years. From this draw they may be more aggressive with him. I can see the case and why he’s being nibbled at , and he could be the main danger.

Pace/running style… you do need to prominent over this CD ideally (yes yes, as you do at Ripon in sprints, doh) and there’s no excuses for mine – surely Joe will know there’s a lack of pace on paper in this, and it’s there to be dictated. In any case he should be in a ‘no excuses’ position if breaking on terms. Some of the others who can race prominent are drawn wide, those in boxes 9/10/11 – their jockeys have a dilemma. Go forward/fear getting trapped wide, or use up too much gas to get a position, or take them back and ride for luck.

We will find out soon enough.

*

This week… today’s ‘Micro Monday’ will be an Ebor Meeting special – i’ll try and dig out a handful of trainer / jockey stats and see what else I can find of interest. I can hope York goes better than Goodwood did! But i’ll tread carefully, although for whatever reason I just can’t help myself in these big field C2 handicaps. Maybe its misplaced pride in just wanting to solve the puzzle and be right. I’ll pick and choose which trends races/handicaps etc to highlight but as a minimum they’ll be a few ‘trainer race record pointers’.

*

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Dagueneau 15.10 Uttoxeter is a qualifier on the Emma Lavelle micro if anyone is interested. Extra positives been a last time out winner and making handicap debut although the odds of 4/1 look about right to me.

    Good Luck
    Karl

    1. Thanks Karl, much appreciated. Yep i’m still in ‘flat only’ mode until September, when i’ll start posting lavelle’s I think, and ‘twister season’.
      Josh

  2. For anybody looking at my Irish selections recently it will be obvious that my “way in” is a runner of previous good form that’s now dropped far enough in the weight’s/class and running in their optimum conditions/distance, so on to today there is only one that comes anywhere near and if i wasn’t a few quid up would probably leave it alone as not near enough.
    Tipperary 2-30. Supreme Vinnie 33-1+ ,hasn’t won a hurdle race in 4 years, last 2 wins have come chasing, nothing can really be gleamed from jockey booking as Rachel Blackmore seems to be the jockey of choice.
    LTO was 8/11 in a 7k hurdle this is 8k,only real plus is has won a 14k hurdle race off 121 today runs off 106, trainer is 1/6 last 30 days. Career wins have come on multiple goings and distances so very hard to say what is optimum. I’m going to have a tiny nibble but really should stay well away.

  3. A 4/1 winner and 2 losers on Saturday.

    Three for Monday:

    4.10 Uttoxeter, Petit Palais – steps up in distance after a solid seasonal debut, trainer form OK, jockey in form, won in this class. 1 point each way.
    4.40 Uttoxeter, Barman – won in this class and at the course and over this distance, trainer in form, a front runner who is suited by the pace stats. 1 point each way.
    6.00 Windsor, Tropics – down in class here, course winner, distance winner, bit of an old handicap stalwart, jockey takes 5LB off, draw OK. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  4. My Uttoxeter micro throws up one of Dr Newlands horses.
    This Idiosyncratic course seems to suit the Doctor. 32% SR (12 wins from 37) in Hcps, with horses under 8/1
    Who’s (on this occasion) last runner ran at Stratford (3 wins from 4)
    3:40U OPERATIC EXPORT

  5. 220 yesterday so hit the cross bar twice, Uttoxeter today

    2:10 Yaazaain – small ew
    2:40 Vice er Virtu 1 pt ew, small ew on Rizzardo too
    3:10 Lungarno Palace 1 pt ew, small ew on Ballon ona Budget too
    3:40 Lilypad 1pt ew
    4:10 Petit Palais 1 pt ew, small ew on Dark Episode too

    Catterick
    2:50 Samara Bay 1 pt ew (Mehmas sire)

    Good luck all,

    1. So that’s scores on the doors of 000031401, wiped my nose. Must review doing two horses in one race.

      Cheers,

  6. yesterdays c3+ list had 3 winners and 3 places.
    c-4-5-6 across the card had 5 winners 6 places
    my picks ran to their prices but playing at big odds it will happen.

    no c3+ races but as i have a change of day off at work we have through the card at catterick c4-5-6
    CATTERICK
    13:15 altalune / night moment / vindobala
    13:45 redrosezorro / reeth / rebel soldier boy
    14:20 soaring star / internationalangel / dandy’s angel
    14:50 shanghai rock / cometh the man / beverage
    15:20 lady nectar / pearl of qatar / rapid russo
    15:50 ice station zebra
    16:20 grey zebedee / sambuca spirit / grandma
    16:50 let me be / alpin king
    17:20 longholm / dance king / tapis libre
    my picks
    BEVERAGE 15/2 has ran some solid races behind a couple that have gone on to do better things. ground is an unknown but breeding suggest it should be ok. likes to lead and wide draw should help today.
    LET ME BE 28/1 E/W won a couple of bumpers last year on soft going at 1m6f and 2m1f so stamina shouldnt be an issue. last run i think distance was to short and this distance may be to but after all the racing in the day the ground should be nicely hacked up which hopefully will be an advantage. i think i he is overpriced and a good e/w shout.

    windsor to follow
    as always good luck everyone

  7. Josh, Re the trainer/jockey combos that you have mentioned. You state that there are 7 for today, but i can find only three. in the 1.15 catt, 1.35 uttox, and in the 2.20 at catt. Am i missing something ?

    1. Hi Allan,

      Hmm, it’s for all races, not just handicaps… i’ve just looked again… and from the report i’m looking at…

      Newland/STD team up in 1.35 and 5.10 (ah, that one’s a NR now!)

      Jonjo/Junior team up in 3.40 Uttox

      OMeara/Danny T did have x4 up at Catt – 1.15, 145, 2.20, 2.50 (all four still in as I type)

      So, down to 6 total

      Josh

  8. Looking at the first at Catterick.
    I’d say Rishworthian has a decent chance for the O’Meara/Tudhope combo. Was 20th of 21 last time, (but that was in a big sales race on a straight track). This race could hardly be more different and form is amongst the best in this weak race. Amy Murphy horse is clearly a big danger, (particularly as she is in form and has only sent one horse up to Catterick – jockey booking is nothing that leaps off the page mind). Murphy horse has question marks over both trip and ground to my mind. Whilst the fourth horse in her last race has since won a Listed race, the horse still looks too short to me.

    1. BoL Matty, the effort/logic deserves some reward if nothing else! Whether DOMs can give 13lb to Amy’s may be the question, does look an odd booking – could be not many there that can ride 8-7/go that low – but i’ve no idea in truth! That was a decent run in France and does shape as if 7f worth a go, but not sure i’d want to wade in at that price.
      Anyway, GL, he should run his race.
      Josh

  9. John Clare looks very interesting to me in the 2.20 at Catterick.

    I think he could have been aimed at the race by Pam Sly, who can live up to her name! Rob Hornby, (has won on horse been booked to ride when previously ridden by 7lbs claimer with 5 career rides on first 2 runs this season). Horse is back to winning mark and Pam Sly has gone upto Catterick with just this one runner. Ground has vastly changed from the advertised good to firm, (it’s now soft), and there are ground concerns. However, that applies probably to several others in this race too – it looks like the scattered heavy rain forecast has hit Catterick).

    1. Don;t think this was Rob Hornby’s finest hour. A couple of jockeys, (Danny Tudhope and Kevin Stott) decided to stay on the far side in the home straight which was understandable as it was a bit up in the air how soft the ground was, (nearside favoured I understand, under those conditions). Kevin Stott hadn;t ridden in first two races on thje card either.
      Some jockeys, (including Barry McHugh on the winner),moved across onto the nearside rail, (as all jockeys had in the previous race at the same trip).
      However Rob Hornby did neither one thing or the other. Even though he was in pole position coming around the bend to bag the nearside rail, if he chose to. Don;t think this was a very good ride

  10. windsor c4-5-6 video replay list
    15:55 bahrain pride / fivethousandtoone / wow william
    16:30 longlai / beautiful news
    17:00 enderman / the good ting / astapor
    17:30 alwaatan sounds big impact / sur mer
    18:00 son and sannie / al dawodiya / global melody
    18:30 my poem / gonna dancealot / lyrical
    19:00 domino darling
    19:30 gloweth / george of hearts / city wanderer
    20:00 deftera lad / mrs benson / musee d’orsay

    my picks
    GLOBAL MELODY E/W 33/1 consistant performer on the all weather and some form on soft going back down to last winning mark. coming in bottom weight which will help in todays condition. i think a good e/w chance.
    DEFTERA LAD 5/1 came from a long way back last time out and ran into a wall of horses. dropped 5lb, top jockey on board similar run could do the trick today.

  11. Well, we knew the Lion’s fate as the stalls opened; galling for me, as I was on at exotic prices last night.
    Hopefully, a trier nto.

    1. Well I think he was trying – he did exactly the same at Ponte, and a couple of other times he’s been sleepy – that’s just him, I knew that was a possibility – turning into a bit of a monkey – he was never really going, Joe tried to get him up the inside but never really took hold of the bit, not sure he came down the hill, and then he did somewhat just let him coast home up the straight – going easy in last 4f may be a blessing on next few starts, we shall see. He’s got cliff horse written all over him!
      Josh

      1. Not sure what you think Josh, but I don;t like to see trainers mucking around with the headgear. If it’s had some effect the first time they put it on, then maybe. But Lion Tower didn’t run well in it first time, and now Mark Johnston changed the form of headgear on the horse’s next start. I also am very dubious about Southwell form elsewhere, (although I may be prejudiced because I hate watching races there – the horses look like they are running in glue.!)

        1. Yep I’d tend to agree but then all comes down to price, unless you take a blanket neg view to said headgear changes, esp when unproven, and that may be fair enough.
          I put his issues at Leic down to the ground more than the headgear. If Leic were soft and he ran like that he wouldn’t have been tipped I suspect. Handling Southwell was more the idea to back up that he may not want a road but then in truth I don’t know how that translates but he was grinding there/stamina.
          He had enough hot form as per write up etc for me to judge his mark. But as yet, for whatever reason, if hasn’t clicked on turf.
          But I’ve just got that wrong as even despite the awful start he still never travelled/picked up. He will go in at some point but whether we are on, who knows. One of those who could be impossible to predict. They clearly think he’s got concentration issues and hasn’t been putting it all in. MJs 1st visor stats were good enough gh for me to not be put off at that price. I was right that it was an open handicap and top 2 worth taking on. But that’s all I got right there!
          Josh

  12. I’m working though my own review of the Catterick card and just glanced at the owner of William Jarvis’ horse in the 2.50. Is that the Neil Warnock?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.