Daily Members Post: 16/08/20 (complete)

Tipsx1 + write up, Sunday Quals, Ripon Pointers

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

(112 tips/17 wins/37 places (inc wins) /+77.6 points, advised/ +74.06 Betfair SP)

#1 – 3.15 Ripon – Kimifive – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)– UP, -1 poor run. The write up/danger/possible saver horse turned out to be good value at 6s, damn.  

 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.25 Newb – Danyah (any, 9/2< best) 10/3 UP

2.25 Newb – Light And Dark (10/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

3.00 Newb – Space Walk (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) H2 11/4 PU

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

3.00 Newb – Baasem 15/2 UP

Kevin Stott

1.30 Ripon – Point Of Woods (16/1<) 16/1 2nd

2.05 Ripon – Hesslewood (16/1<) H3  15/2 2nd

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

2.25 Newb – Silent Echo (1st run) H3 16/1 UP

3.15 Ripon – Golden Apollo (2nd run) H4 16/1 UP

3.50 Ripon – Euro Implosion (2nd run) H2 8/1

5.30 Cork – David Garrick (2nd run) 8/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Ripon: Great St Wilfirid

Using my trends/stats pointers as some sort of guide… looking at those who’d yet to run at Group level and who ran over 6f on last start.. leaves 11/12 winners (11/91, 29p, +69 BFSP)… that ‘shortens’ the field to 9, if they hold up of course…

Kimifive H1/ Golden Apollo H4 / Gunmetal/ Deputise / Typhoon Ten/ Citron Major / Abate / Highly Sprung / Royal Residence 

Being relatively fancied LTO (11/1<) is some sort of guide… 7 of those above hit that, the two that do not… Highly Sprung / Royal Residence

Trainers (to have won race 12 years, with runners)

  • Dakota Gold (trainer 1/6,4p)
  • Staxton / Golden Apollo H4/ Hyperfocus (1/15,2p)
  • Gunmetal (1/12,1p)
  • Brian The Snail / Mr Lupton/ George Bowen (2/33, 6p)
  • Watchable H3 / Abel Handy (3/16,6p)

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Tip…

Kimifive…

I thought he looked a shade overpriced at 8s given his level of form this season. His Stewards Cup effort is the best recent form in this by some way I think, where he comfortably beat his side, and was ahead of the rest, only to be nabbed on the line. That is solid form and a repeat of it puts him bang there in this weaker race. The question of course is his running style/pace, and whether he’ll just never have a chance – they rode him further forward at Haydock, in the chasing pack, and I hope Fallon does that here. If he anchors stone cold out the back then that’s game over. He usually does his homework though, and while his natural cruising speed may put him in mid div, i’m sure he can be close enough if required. Hope comes from the fact that the middle ‘could’ be the place to be – all the pace seems to be in and around him – Watchable and Dakota Gold like to get on with it, Abel Handy can and Gumetal was up there LTO. I need them to go hard although this is a stiffer 6 than Goodwoods I think. He’s seemingly in the form of his life and I thought worth a go at 8s. It may not doubt be a frustrating running on effort into the places, but that’s the sprint handicapping game.

If the clerks update is correct the ground is now Good after 6.5mm overnight, which is fine. He doesn’t mind a bit of cut I don’t think, but if that’s an incorrect assessment and it goes proper soft, he’d be in trouble I suspect.

Of the rest… well I tried to find something I liked at the odds that would race up there on the pace, as around here that’s generally is the place to be.  But, I was struggling. Gunmetal doesn’t win often enough for me, Dakota is out of form I think but is the class angle and would be a danger if rediscovering his best and Watchable, while admirable, is now 10 and surely this is a tad too deep for him these days. Maybe Motagally up the near side who won for us LTO, but he’s 9/2, and Kimi has him beat on that Haydock effort.

The main dangers… well Staxton is the obvious one and it may be that simple. He arrives in form, is still very well handicapped on old form, and shouldn’t be far away. The question was price, and I couldn’t get off the fence as to whether 6s was big enough or not. A dilemma. He is 0/9,1p in 16+ runner races but there’s probably not much in that. This is deeper than LTO but he could take another step forward. I’m not convinced high will be the place to be, and he will need to be careful not to get stuck behind horses, if a few come this side. Were he an assured front runner, grab this nearside rail and go, I may have been more tempted. They could be more aggressive today. I wouldn’t put you off a saver but I couldn’t get myself there at the price, tipping wise. Plenty of fancied horses do win this though. Of the bigger ones, Golden Apollo is another recent losing tip, he does usually come from further back and I think something will be better handicapped, but if building on LTO could be in the mix. I wont be shocked if any in the top 4/5 of the market take this really but Kimi was the one my pin landed on at 8s.

Gl with your fancies.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Agreed, no hiding place in this game and I`m going to stick with my Irish horses over the fences…

    17:15 Tramore
    CUSP OF CARABELLI 1pt win 6/1 gen (in form trainer, horse unlucky at Galway lto, loves this course winning 3 times here, JJ Slevin on board, should be fav IMO)
    WELL JOEY 1pt win 7/1 gen (since changing yards has won 4 times out of last 9, jockey 2-2 on this horse, goes well fresh, no false gamble with this one…)

    As always, hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!

  2. A quick heads up for the going at Ripon , there has been light rain all night with the odd heavy shower in the area and light rain forecast all day today, i know i’m 50m away but one of our heavy showers lasted 3 hours last night and it really hammered it down, would not be surprised if there’s some soft in the going by the off.

    1. I’m in Ripon at the moment, and can confirm your weather report, also it is steady drizzle at this time

  3. I was hoping my Irish eyes would still be smiling but i can only manage a slight grin,
    In what is a poor card at Cork i could only find one that may be a bit of value.
    5-30. Tony The Gent 20-1, 11lb below last turf win, he did show a bit of form on penultimate start when 3/16.
    Has 7 wins in C4’s and above 2 at this distance . To be honest at 10’s id’e leave him alone but at 20’s could be worth the risk/return.
    Over at Tramore there’s a couple of even more risky one’s,
    4-15. Bellgrove 20-1, a c&d winner twice runs today 6lb below lwm , has won at the going,class,course and distance Rachel Blackmore aboard.
    5-15. Tried to leave this alone but i keep coming back to Full Cry 28-1 4p , has run in some big races in the last couple of years and now drops back into a c4 where he has 4 wins 1lb below lwm and has a 7lb claimer on board.
    £2 ew on all and a 50p ew trixie

    1. well a 28-1 place and a n/r £12 staked returns £16-60, so with Mr Lupton placing a small profit on the day.

  4. might as well have a go at the biggie today,
    Ripon 3-15. The 3 first past the post over c&d 10 days ago should all be thereabouts but i’m having another go with my personal cliff horse Mr Lupton he’s now 12lb below lwm and has to come good sometime, hasn’t he ?

  5. RECAP
    yesterdays c3+ list had 4 WINS highlight being MAGICAL WISH at 18/1 and 6 places.
    my picks had a non runner and MAX VEGA finishing second, jockey dropped the whip coming towards the end of the race but i dont think it would of won.
    of the others the varian angle at doncaster had a winner NARUNA and third so that might worth another look when doncaster is on next.
    MEGALLEN won for gosden in the Oppenheimer colours which is why i mentioned it. (if only it was always that simple).
    but the suprise was ESHITAYA over in ireland how it ended up 50/1 i never know given connections and breeding but it
    hopefully someone else on here spotted it too.

    todays c3+ video replay list
    RIPON
    14:05 young fire / sun power / fred
    14:40 fountain cross
    15:15 highly sprung / thegreatestshowman / kimifive / staxton
    15:50 mondain / zeeband
    NEWBURY
    14:25 cold stare / river nymph / impressor / lexington dash
    15:00 space walk / chicago doll / frontispiece
    15:35 amor de mi vida / fairy dust / sardinia sunset

    My picks
    LEXINGTON DASH 9/1 nothing wrong with his form been tunning well all year the ground shouldnt be an issue. has a decent draw has a good jockey claiming 3lb today. should run well

    THEGREATESTSHOWMAN 40/1 E/W speculatative one as the ground is a little unknown but not a negative well not until we see its unsuitable. chucked in at the weights which should help today and running on in last races so 6f should suit
    i think he has a really good e/w chance and ill be taking advantage of the enhanced place some of the bookies are offering.

    C4-5-6 video replay list

    RIPON
    12:55 time for a good un / party spirit
    13:30 b fifty two / rockley point / quercus / red hot streak
    16:25 magna moralina
    16:55 baarrij / shaffire
    NEWBURY
    13:15 beheld / good and proper / palafou
    13:50 risk taker / confide / wilfy / lapidary
    16:10 one day / jo jo rabbit
    16:40 wink of an eye / mashhoor / dickens
    17:10 fabilis / shady cove / tasfeeq
    17:40 shamaroon / piranesi / without a fight
    18:10 sweet reward / vulcan / keswick

    my picks
    QUERCUS 9/1 E/W finished well at ascot from the back showed a good turn of pace. drawn down the middle today so hopefully wont get to swamped. i do like the look of a few in this race but for some reason just keep coming back to him. jockey booking also a positive.

    a few i noted down
    market rasen 2:15 topofthecotswolds
    cork
    2:10 street kid
    4:30 ashtarak
    5:30 kells

    thats all from me today i hope someone finds something of use in the above and as always best of luck in your fancies today 🙂

  6. The last 10 running’s of class 2 races at Ripon with 15+ runners.
    8 of the ten, have been won by the top three stalls.

    Today we have MONTAGALLY (20) progressive. But what puts me off is riding arrangements and the price.
    Crawley stays at Newbury, but O’Neil (2nd string jockey) who rode at Donny yesterday could have stayed up north for this one, but chooses to go to Newbury to ride a second string in a maiden. His only ride.

    BRIAN THE SNAIL. (19) Nearly last with a furlong to go in the stewards cup. Finished well to be third.
    That’s the only time he’s been placed in 20 attempt’s in class 2 races.

    GOLDEN APOLLO (18) Won a class 2 in 2017. He didn’t win his next till 2yrs later. his main target the last three seasons seems to have been the Sky bet dash at York where he’s finished 2nd 4th and 2nd again last month.
    Who to choose BRIAN THE SNAIL for his last run

    1. Unlucky Dave, that was a good pointer. I guess it’s now 9 out of the last 11 from the top four stalls!

  7. I think Kimi is a good tip, but an EW bet. Anything that Joe Tuite runs currently merits evaluation, as he is placing his horses carefully, he chooses his riders selectively and the stable is still under-rated.

  8. I know josh puts up J Crowley selections based on his research but could anyone tell me what his stats are when riding for Hamdan al Maktoum, please. Class 3+ and 4,5,6.
    Thanks in advance.

    I have done his 5 today small change bets.

    Mike

    1. I Mike, most of the research is with him and his retainer, Hamdan. It’s all detailed in the report which I’ll dig out tomorrow again and post link, should be in Free Reports tab somewhere. I can’t remember what was in it now in truth! I’d be surprised if it was worthwhile just backing his rides in those classes blind but id have had a look at time.
      Josh

  9. Regarding the 3:15 @ Ripon an interesting and possibly irrelevant stat from HRB (limited data from 2011 onwards) is that no horse has won travelling more than 81 miles. 0/29 wins 4/29 placed.
    Maybe those closer to home have a better idea of what it takes to win the race than the hopeful raiders!
    I’m going for wins on Abate and Citron Major with a small saver on Staxton.
    I’m not sure why I’m even bothering with this sort of approach as I’m usually terrible at it but you gotta have some fun with betting now and again, systematic approaches may bring in the money but they do drain the fun sometimes. Good luck everyone.

  10. Going in for Market Rasen
    1:05 Viking Ruby
    2:15 Topof the Cotswolds
    4:00 St Agustin

    Good luck all 🙂

    Cheers

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