Daily Members Post: 14/08/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(107 tips/17 wins/36 places (inc wins) /+82.6 points, advised/+70.85 TBC Betfair SP)

# 1 – 2.50 Ponte – Burmese Waltz1.5 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP 9/2, -1.5

#2 – 4.10 Chest – Militia–  1.5 point win – 9/2 (bet365, WH/betf/PP) WON 9/2 > 5/1, +6.75

#3 – 4.55 Ling – Caen Na Coille – 1 point win – 8/1 (WH) 15/2 (gen) 2nd, -1, decent run, beaten by the right one who got a peach from Jamie, best of the rest, settled well, stayed on strongly – Charlie will surely find a race for her!

That’s all for today, x3 tips, #1 as of 8am, #2 as of 08.57, #3 as of 10am,…write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.45 Ponte – Only Alone (9/1<) 18/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

4.20 Ponte – Mankayan (14/1< guide) H1 9/4  2nd 

6.55 Ling – Late Arrival (12/1< guide) H3 6/4 

8.05 Chep – Tribal Commander (9/1<)  9/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sire

5.55 Ling – Power Station (10/1< guide) 7/2 UP

Sires/Breeding

3.20 Ponte – Seinesational (14/1<) H4 9/1 

Jack Mitchell 

7.25 Ling – One Idea (any) 6/1

Kevin Stott 

4.10 Chest – Militia (16/1<) H1 5/1 WON 5/1 

5.40 Chest – Madeeh (16/1<) H1 5/2 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

2.50 Ponte – Burmese Waltz (1st run since tipped) H3 7/1  UP

4.20 Ponte – Mankayan (1st run) H1 9/4  2nd 

4.55 Ling – Caen Na Coille (2nd run) H2 15/2  2nd 11/2

 

5.Other/Updates

Note: Kevin Stott… from the research HERE>>>  I’ve decided to track most of the micro angles for the duration of the season… Kevin Ryan (tracks/1st headgear/class) and ‘Impact’ (trainers/tracks/track 1-6 runs/tracks places/ C6 tracks)  What with the Ryan Moore angle shared yesterday, that will be the final addition to any flat angles followed/posted in section 3 above. Hopefully not too many horses listed daily but in terms of ‘systematic’ approaches…those emerging/looking solid are Section 2 and any Section 2/3 horse with a ‘H‘ … all explained in the ‘blog content explained’ document at the top of the post, and in the last results update (Results tab top of blog) In terms of using all content as a ‘way in’ there’s a good mix of angles now and plenty of winners being posted… just a case of landing on the right ones! Easy. Ahem 🙂 

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Sunday’s Great St Wilfrid pointers HERE>>>

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Tips…

Burmese Waltz – 

Sometimes you look at a horse/race then check the market and you wonder what’s going on and why a horse is said price. You know instinctively it’s a bet, you don’t have to think too much.  Even if they tail off out the back of the tv. 7s for her in this was insulting and I was genuinely surprised to see her so big – she is now around the price she should have been in my view, 4s, 9/2, although we shall see what the market does leading up to the race. 13/2 held for a good 20-30 mins and will be the declared price, if i’m so fortunate to have landed on the right one. I tipped/backed her LTO, on the nose, the day that most of my big priced pokes placed. Such is life. She’s unexposed, the yard are in form and she brings some rock solid Royal Ascot handicapping form to the table. While she raced in the right part of the track that day, she finished just ahead of Nahaar who’d win easily NTO off 93, Gabriel the Wire a couple of places back who’d win off 93 next time also. Blue Mist was further back and he hacked up NTO – had he broke smarter and been on the nearside/got a run, he’d have been right there also. Of those with handicapping form coming into this race, hers is the best by quite some way here. The leap from those sorts of handicaps to listed races, esp fillies listed and around Ponte, can’t be very big at all really for me. She’s tough and was coming back at the winner come the line. A repeat of that run there should be good enough here but she’s open to improvement. The 55 days niggles (although not now given market vibes) but I suspect this has been the plan and there’s not many 6f listed fillies races to target, for that all important black-type. Danny T is retained by the owners and he’d have had the choice between their two in this (Ryan’s a NR since).

Pace/running style… she likes to race prominently which is ideal and there’s no pace on her inside, on paper at least – so getting out, handy and not too far off the rail shouldn’t be an issue. A few on her outside like to go forward and will hopefully set it up. Conditions look fine and whatever she does, 7s jumped off the screen as being far too big.

My confidence also comes from the questions the others have. Obviously she has to run her race but the fav has questions – a first time visor for a reason. That could make the difference but she was ‘only’ second in this last year, so isn’t bombproof. If she runs up to her mark then the rest do need to step forward, but that’s possible for some, inc mine. Hopefully the visor lights her up too much but she’s clearly a danger, albeit one at the prices I wanted to oppose.

I thought mine was best of the rest. Exceptional is in form, unexposed, but Good to Firm is a question. 9/2 or so with her best runs when cut in the ground – and the selection’s handicapping form LTO is much stronger than her LTO run for me. The yard continue to blow hot and cold also, but that could be the nature of their yard size/number of runners. She should go well if handling the ground, maybe she’ll relish it!

The money for Jouska concerns me a little bit – unexposed and bits and pieces of form – again fast ground a question and Candy’s yard still hit and miss, although a winner in last 14 days. She can be ridden patiently also which may not be ideal, esp from box 1 where could get stuck behind a wall of horses. The booking of Dane is interesting, although 0/9,1p in last year. Maybe she’s the main danger but hopefully this race is all about the selection. Time will tell, but I had to take advantage of that price.

Militia – 

One for the new Stott angles today, as a ‘way in’. This is another that jumped off the page, this time only 9/2 but I was still miffed as to why he wasn’t shorter. Possibly because he didn’t get a mention in the RP spotlight (odd, LTO winner, best form by some way) and whoever wrote that today was obsessed by the draw.

If HRB ratings are to be believed then the rest are in trouble here – rare to see such a spread on their ratings in a handicap like this and his LTO figure of theirs blows these out the park also. Aged 5 and on his 6th start for Midgley, he appears to be in the form of his life and improving. I thought he won a shade cosily come the line LTO and he likes a bit of cut. It may dry out come race time as no rain forecast but Good is just fine. He won a C3 LTO being 80s horses and that was on the back of 4 solid efforts – he hasn’t run a bad race this season as yet. A sprinter in form. 3 of his last 4 RPRs are career bests also. At Catterick he did too much on the front end, in a scrap from early on, setting it up for a stablemate (hmm) and at Hamilton he possibly challenged in the wrong part of the track. In any case those two races have produced a few subsequent winners. He has the best recent handicapping form coming into this, by some way to my eyes.

I really think this race is all about whether Kevin can get him out and prominent, without being trapped 4 wide. Of course from this draw that’s possible and probably why he was put in at 5s or so – but 3/4 of those on his inside are usually ridden patiently (although when low around here that can force your hand to change tactics) and in any case a few of them may go too hard/take each other on early. Hopefully he’s not one of them! I’ll trust in his jockey, and trainer/jockey 2/6 in last 14 days. He stays further but travels powerfully. This race may be won or lost in the first furlong, but I thought i’d have a go. You can win from wide over this CD. He could decimate these. (I don’t know why i’ve woken up in such a bullish mood, esp given on another -7 or so mini drought, but it’s best to be confident in this game)

Of the rest…Thrilla In Manila is interesting but not enough for me. He’s got questions but may go forward from low. I can hope the rail is cut up come this race and it may not be the place to be today. Still, he needs more, and i’m not sure where that’s coming from – unless not running on GF does the trick. Tom M is on, and he’s lightly raced. So I can see the case given his low draw but he’s more than beatable and this may happen quick enough for him.

Powerallied was put in a short price due to his CD form (6 wins around here) and his mark – now IF he bounces back to form, he will go very close. But he does just look out of form – I suppose the assumption is that, given the owner, they’ve been playing plotting and it’s all been about Chester racing again. I don’t know, but maybe the horse will come to life around here. I just think he’s out of form. At 7/2 I could leave. Not for me.

I really struggled to make a case for the others. Mutabaahy is 1/28 on turf, Red Stripes 1/38 (for example, he’s a 40s shot here and trainer 0/69 at track in last 5 years, but he will try and lead for a time, if quick enough) Some money for Boudica Bay but she can fall out the stalls and she’s now 0/14 above Class 6. Nope.  The rest can beat me and if they do, so be it.

To my eyes this race is about whether a) Militia runs his race b) whether he can avoid being trapped very wide and/or doing too much up top.

Caen Na Coille – 

The least confident pick of the three and if one of the other two hasn’t gone in by now, it could be a long weekend. However I struggled to leave her alone at 15/2. Tipped two starts back when also ‘Hugh Taylored’ she ran a shocker at Windsor – maybe confirming she’s an AW filly. She bounced back to form at Kempton when I didn’t back her, beaten 1 1/2L at 10/1. She travelled well into that, had to wait an age for a gap, while the winner got going a stride or two sooner. It may not have mattered but the front 2 were clear and she wasn’t stopping come the line. Stevie D is up at Ponte which may be signficant (3 rides but prob there for Mankayan, a LTO losing tip who’s form has been franked, but he wasn’t overpriced for tipping purposes I don’t think, 9/4)  but young Fallon gets a go and he could inspire more. The 3lb helps with her mark and actual weight carried. She’s down in class and up slightly in trip. Some of her form is working out ok, esp her Chelmsford return. Her RPR 79 LTO was a join career best. Fellowes is in fine form also.

She should also race up there, I think Fallon may send her forward – possibly tracking Joe Fanning and Bin Suroors may go on also. Those two can beat each other up, junior can pounce turning in, and steal a few lengths before Spencer wakes his up – here’s hoping! 15/2 looked overpriced.

The rest… well there’s a few 3 year olds lurking again, getting lumps of weight. Maybe a Salisbury like error taking them on, although a much better price in which to do so. They all have questions – the fav is still a maiden and something about him makes me think he could be a bit soft/doesn’t like a battle – he has that to prove anyway. A repeat of LTO may well ensure he doesn’t have to battle anyway but I thought just enough there to take him on, esp as Spencer may be patient on him. He wears a hood for a reason and if they have ‘attitude’ concerns he will want to deliver him as late as possible.

Of the others… Stuart Williams continues to blow hot and cold also and I’m happy to leave Sandy Steve, for all that he’s best on the AW. Tralee Hills is of some mild interest and has the form to mix it. Johnston’s needs more but he will go forward and its his first run on the AW.

So, it felt open. Maybe the fav blows them away but i’ll take him on as is my want. If he doesn’t it does feel open and mine is overpriced I think.

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Others… I think Mankayan should go close, not that i’m saying anything revelatory there. Hopefully he wins for ‘H’ horses but was too short for tipping purposes – he does have a big weight to lump but a repeat of LTO may be enough, given horse who beat him won again at Ascot a few days back.

If Power Station were much bigger than 7/2 I may have been tempted – he was very eye-catching at Sandown for me and wouldn’t be shocked if he took an almighty leap forward-  that race is on the turf and the weather there is potentially unsettled. In any case, 7/2 for a horse 2nd time up having been beaten miles but running on, when there could be rain around also, is too short. Still, he has a future I think and one to keep an eye on.

I left Chepstow as they could get plenty of rain and as I type i’d be guessing as to the going, which is never a great place to be.

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GL with any bets as always,

Josh

 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • No joy Thursday 0/2.

    Two for Friday.

    1.45 Pontefract, Electric Mistress – an improving three year old, trainer in good form, trainer and jockey combo good course form, pace metric suits, draw OK. 2 points win.

    3.10 Chester, Sir Maximillian – course specialist, well drawn. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 13/08/20 8:54 PM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ list had 1 winner and 2 places Alpinista won 12/1sp but was as big as 33/1 at one point
    the c3-4-5 list across the cards had 12 winners and 14 places. not bad. our girl sheila 18/1 was the highlight.
    my picks. as above with alpinista i manged the 33/1 but 12/1sp was still a good result. we wont mention the other runners.
    i may of got a bit ambitious with a few. 🙂

    todays c3+ video replay list
    pontefract
    14:20 star in the making / mgical max / phucket power
    14:50 mountain brave / exceptional / crispina
    16:20 frankels storm / damage control / kittens dream
    chester
    14:40 chase the dollar / topper bill
    15:10 jackster / almufti / lincoln park
    16:40 gabrial the one / berkshire savvy / highwaygrey

    c4-5-6 to follow (alot to get through)

    my picks.
    MOUNTAIN BRAVE E/W 16/1 has some solid form and has crept in in bottom weight was leading at the 6f stage last time and came from a very wide draw eventually being swamped by the pack which suggests 6f is her distance and previous form would suggest. good each way chance i think. trainer knows how to bounce them back.

    FRANKELS STORM 11/2 another raider from france thats been keeping good company. tried over a new trip but breeding suggests this trip will suit. long break a little concern but trainer knows how to get on fit.

    as always good luck 🙂

    warren bottomley 13/08/20 9:12 PM Reply


    • That drifted. Thank God for BOG 🙂

      warren Bottomley 14/08/20 4:35 PM Reply


    • WD WB …. well advised and i noted as ever 😉

      GEORGE B 14/08/20 4:49 PM Reply


      • Cheers George. 🙂

        warren Bottomley 14/08/20 4:57 PM Reply


  • c4-5-6 video replay list
    chester
    13:40 haseef / shem
    14:10 hot scoop / bergerac
    15:40 fox hill / van gerwen / spirit in the sky
    16:10 militia / mutabaahy / lihou
    17:10 midrarr / gold ribbon
    17:40 madeeh / deposit / thunder king
    pontefract
    12:15 ancient times / mr lauda / danzart
    12:45 kingmania / meu amor / three hat day
    13:15 war whisper / foreshaw / yukon mission
    13:45 jungle inthebungle / jordan electrics / lincoln gamble
    15:20 frankenstella / seinesational
    15:50 wonderous words / tawreed / roong roong

    my picks.
    FOX HILL 11/1 has had some decent runs and finished very fast last time out and off the same mark today
    hopefully the same performance today should see her over the line today.

    warren bottomley 14/08/20 12:13 AM Reply


  • sorry no time for write up’s will try to put some thoughts down later,
    3 i like at Pontefract
    1-15. Inexes
    1-45. Mr Orange
    2-20. Magical Max
    i’ll back these win or ew depending on morning price
    3 speculatives at Chester for fun stakes
    3-10. Muntadab
    4-10. She Can Boogie
    4-40. Lunar Jet
    a couple at the Curragh for no logical reason at all , again fun stakes
    2-30, Sea The Lion
    4-30. Polly Douglas

    martin whittle 14/08/20 3:21 AM Reply


    • ended up backing these:
      Pontefract.
      1-15 Inexes £4 ew @11-2
      1-45. Mr Orange £4 win @5-2
      Curragh.
      4-30. Polly Douglas £2 ew @15-2
      £1 ew’s on the others

      martin whittle 14/08/20 9:52 AM Reply


      • surprised but happy that Mr Orange drifted in the market al least that’s paid for my bets.

        martin whittle 14/08/20 2:03 PM Reply


        • Nice call Martin. Well done. 🙂

          warren Bottomley 14/08/20 2:10 PM Reply


        • £5 up on the day think i’ll invest it in Agent Gibbs C7-35

          martin whittle 14/08/20 6:10 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    What is the angle you have for Jedd O’Keeffe? Always a trainer I follow after landing a huge bet on his a few years back.

    Cheers,
    Lee

    leehayward 14/08/20 9:24 AM Reply


  • Whatever happened to Flat s6, was always a profitable system when I was a regular not so long back

    Chris Sengelow 14/08/20 11:22 AM Reply


    • Hi Chris,

      I changed everything for this Flat season inc the research underpinning various sections above. That’s at least 10 weeks back! 🙂
      And I also binned off using Geegeez speed ratings and inform speed ratings – everything had become over complicated and all a bit crap in truth. Inc those old stats – S6 was ok, although a bumpy ride. But that’s all long in the bin.
      Josh

      Josh 14/08/20 11:29 AM Reply


  • I thought the booking of Stotty for London Palladium, by Hugo, might be for a starring role.

    Chris 14/08/20 12:36 PM Reply


    • NEARLY .. but not quite a standing ovation .. great e/e though thganks 😉
      lgb

      GEORGE B 14/08/20 2:19 PM Reply


  • Josh saves the day. Awesome 🙂

    warren Bottomley 14/08/20 4:16 PM Reply


    • Not sure your day needed saving after that 4.20 result!! Well done. Nice drift,hope you still have a few BOG accounts left.
      Hopefully I can add a cherry on top of the cake, although i’ll take the days profit to get us back up to +82 or so.
      Josh

      Josh 14/08/20 4:45 PM Reply


      • My picks are finally in the plus bracket for the month. But when your poking around 33/1 e/w shots it’s to be expected lol.

        warren Bottomley 14/08/20 4:57 PM Reply


        • it’s a jungle out there ! 🙂

          GEORGE B 14/08/20 5:03 PM Reply


          • Inthebungle George 🙂

            warren Bottomley 14/08/20 5:59 PM Reply


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