Daily Members Post: 13/08/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(104 tips/16 wins/34 places (inc wins) /+78.35 points, advised/+70.85 Betfair SP)

#1 – 2.50 Salis – Ghaziyah – 1 point win – 7/2ย  UP -1 – nothing was beating winner on day, but even so poor from this one, no impression, head to one side, not sure she was in love with that ground but hard to judge until they try and can’t be used as a punting excuse. She should have been making ground, never did, although strange tactics given it was never going to be strongly run – maybe she hasn’t trained on but i’ll no doubt end up sprinting to that cliff edge! ๐Ÿ™‚

#2 – 3.50 Salis – Ahorsecalledwanda 1 point win – 3/1 (gen) UP 10/3, ran ok no excuse, not good enough, -1

that’s all for today, x2, as of 9am, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.50 Sals – Ghaziyah (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) 7/2 UP

6.30 Bath – Shoot To Kill (8/1<) H3ย 7/2

7.00 Bath – Al Jawhra (8/1<) 18/1 ‘DNQ’

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

2.20 Sals – Lake Lucerne (any) 18/1 UP

Sires/Breedingย 

2.20 Sals – Lake Lucerne (any) 18/1 UP

Jim Crowley (any odds)

1.15 Salis – Modmin 7/2

3.20 Salis – Gentleman At Arms H2ย 7/1 (40p R4) UP/2nd

3.50 Salis – Ahorsecalledwanda H4ย 11/2 (15p R4) UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

2.50 Sals – Ghaziyah (1st run) 7/2 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

NEW : Jockey In Focus: Kevin Stott (inc video)ย … READ HERE>>>ย 

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Ryan Moore

While keeping an eye on Wednesday afternoon’s fare I noted that Ryan Moore had a couple of big priced winners for Roger Charlton/ Princeย Khalid binย Abdullah Al Saud (to give him his full title, Frankel/Enable’s colours!) … I thought that looked ‘odd’ / ‘interesting’…

So, if we ignore Ryan Moore’s rides for Sir Michael Stoute in those colours…which makes logical sense as when he’s not engaged for Coolmore he’s effectively his stable jockey and thus his booking could be deemed less significant…

Ryan Moore / The Prince / NOT Sir Michael Stoute / All codes/ 2013 >ย 

84 bets / 28 wins / 38p / 33% sr / +13 SP / +24 BFSP / BF AE 1.3ย 

That was before Wednesday’s 15/2, and 7/1 brace, which improves them further. I suspect to gen available morning odds/non bog, they’d be substantially higher also.

Both were for Roger Charlton, who he was 10/21, 14p, +11 BFSP before those two winners. Damn!

I have saved that angle and will post them – that’s just the sort of jockey angle/logic I like, even more so given said horses are all very well bred, which is never a bad foundation.

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Tips write ups…

Ghaziya – I find these price points the most challenging in which to judge ‘value’ but in the end I concluded i’d rather lose 1 point on this one than watch her win, at what is a fair enough 10/3 / 7/2 (don’t forget Lad/Coral always worth a lookย  as no longer on Oddschecker, although you could use the RP odds comparison function, they’re both 10/3 as I type) I tipped this filly (well technically a mare now shes’s aged 4 I think) at Goodwood LTO where she ran ‘ok’ but nothing more. In hindsight (ah, hindsight) maybe the price was a tad short given the break and she ran as if she’d come on for it/a prep; tenderly handled but staying on well enough under hands and heels, in a much deeper race than this. She brings the best form to the table including her final effort of last season, which has worked out well. I’m convinced she’s much better than a 90s horse and Haggas will be hoping she can take this before nabbing a listed prize – job done then, given her breeding. They think she’s listed+ class, hence why kept in training – she’s a win on the board so could have been packed off the breeding sheds given who her sire is/relations. I think she will relish this stiff 1m4f and it could unlock plenty more. Haggas is in form (although he’s rarely out of form in truth, some operation) and he won this race last year – which makes me think this could have been the early season plan for her. With Balding’s now out there’s potential for this to be falsely run, which is when jockeyship can come into it even more, and we have Tom M in the saddle which is always a positive. There should be enough time to wind her up. She’s a strapping specimen and shouldn’t have an issue with carrying the actual weight.

The others do need to improve to get past her I think, but of course with x3 3 year olds lurking at the bottom, getting chunks of weight from her, that’s possible. Stoutes has been well backed and he’s won this race previously, and is in red hot form. She looks like a slow burning Stoute project as she was workmanlike LTO, now up two classes. There will be more to come, but that’s true of the selection also. The weight for age exists for a reason although she does look a strapping filly. Maybe that actual weight difference will tell in the final furlong but like I said i’d be more annoyed if the selection won unbacked at this price, than leaving her alone. She ‘will’ be winning on her next 3 starts! There’s three other fillies in form who could all be dangerous to a point but they do need to step up, which they’re entitled to.

The ground here is rattling fast – this is where being a clerk is tricky – they were predicted buckets full of rain/thunder yesterday/through the night, but it didn’t arrive. They last watered on Monday but i’d rather it this way round than now being soft+ . Connections will have to judge whether to run or not. Firm is a question for them all really but the selection won her novice on Good to Firm and has a low enough action for me to think it should be fine. And if Haggas runs her, I can’t use that as an excuse. A known unknown.

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Ahorsecalledwanda –ย after the NRs and further pondering I thought she was worth a go. Jim does ride this 6f well enough, 7/35, 15p, 2/7,6p in the class, in the last 5 years. Trainer/jockey are 3/13,4p here in last 5 years also. The yard are going ok, a bit light on winners but a 32% place SR in last 30 days suggests they could start flowing soon. This filly arrives in form and comes here on the back of a career best on the figures (74 RPR, 62 TS). I suspect that was a combination of the 1st CP and she could just be getting to grips with the game. She looked all at sea on her return in June – keen, and not handling the Rowley dip at all well to my eyes. Looked after, and she no doubt needed it. Two starts back was a deeper turf handicap than this, racing nearside and going ok. She was well positioned LTO but was keeping on and I think this stiff 6f could be what she wants. The fact they’ve booked Crowley and Buick the last twice would hint to me they were expecting improved efforts. This isn’t a great race and she should be in the perfect spot tactically – just tracking the fav. The two of them could have it between them.ย  Devil’s rock is interesting to a point but that was a poor race at Bath and I suppose Bell’s is lightly raced and down in class. But tactically only the fav and the selection usually go forward, which is a plus for us I think. In any case if she can build on LTO I think she’ll outrun her odds here and 3s was a point too big in this line up. We shall see if I’ve got that right or not.

 

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40 Comments

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  • Two for Thursday:

    2.20 Salisbury, Award Scheme – In winning form but now rising through the grades. Trainer in form, course and distance winner, prominent style of running suits in this race, draw OK. 2 points win.

    3.40 Hamilton, Iffraaz – Down in class here to the level he last won at, likes to race prominently. Part of the Johnston & fanning team at the meeting. 1 point each way.

    Martin Colwell 12/08/20 9:25 PM Reply


  • looks a bit of a favourites day at Salisbury could only find 2 that might be worth a small ew.
    3-50. Sweet Pursuit 12-1 runs off top weight on a mark of 74 has won off 73, her 6 wins have all come on the turf and at this distance. The favourite Tuscon Oasis has led/prominent on all 3 runs and might get caught out by a fast finisher.
    4-55.Pioneering 10-1, back on turf and back to a mile, Moore has Holly Doyle up and he’s now 4lb below last winning mark. Alpine Mistral is the likely favourite and she’s up 10lb for her win lto after going up 6 for the run before and that might make her vulnerable (the phrase clutching at straws springs to mind ๐Ÿ™‚ )

    martin whittle 13/08/20 3:24 AM Reply


    • I was looking at sweet pursuit as well, has a fantastic record in August but track record nothing to shout about, mind you some have been in stronger races in this so may have a small play

      James P 13/08/20 10:13 AM Reply


  • On a more serious note there’s 3 today i like not enough for a full point but i’ll have 1/2 pt ew on them all.
    Leopardstown
    4-00. Hamley 15-2 5p available most places, this is possibly the least competitive race she has ever run in and the drop in class should give her every chance to get back to winning ways, perfect going and distance.
    Hamilton
    3-10 Dark Defender 10-1, won a similar race 3 runs ago and was 3rd in a C3 lto, i like the booking of Tudhope who has won on him before and g/s is his perfect going.
    3-40. Gulf Of Poets 7-1 4p all over, think i was drawn in by the lack of opposition, g/s is ideal but won’t mind if it’s good or soft either now 9lb below last winning mark.
    probably have a small trixie as well.

    martin whittle 13/08/20 7:34 AM Reply


    • well that’s it from me today heat has finally broken and a nice cool sea fret has rolled in so i’m off to bed for some kip.

      martin whittle 13/08/20 7:38 AM Reply


      • I’m with you re Dark Defender. Got its distance and going, last 5 years R10 W5
        Last 2 years 6f cl4 GS form line 111
        Won off 78,79 & 83
        Today runs off 81
        Draw a bit iffy but poised for a big run.

        Andy G 13/08/20 10:53 AM Reply


    • 1 winner so not to bad , staked 3.5 pts (including trixie) returns 6 pts.

      martin whittle 13/08/20 4:32 PM Reply


      • nice winner over in Ireland martin. ๐Ÿ™‚

        warren bottomley 14/08/20 12:28 AM Reply


  • Just to add to your reasoning on Ghaziyah Josh, Haggas is 4 from 6, 5 places in handicaps at the track and switching Tom Marquand is another plus I think. That form from its last run of the season at HQ produced listed and group winners and is by someway the best in the field to this date. You would think a run to that level should mean it takes the spoils here.

    James P 13/08/20 10:12 AM Reply


    • Thanks James, in truth once I saw he’d won the race last year i didn’t dig much further into his track record but I should have done, may have made be get off the fence sooner than I did… but yep, those handicap stats eye-popping enough… 7/15,10p last 5, 2/4,3p C2. There is enough there at the price.
      Yep you’d have thought so, plenty from that race rated higher and they were all solid animals going into it – had she been drawn lower, and ridden more forward, she may well have won that – she flew in the final 2f and hit the line hard, suggesting this mark should be more than workable! She could be a 100-110 filly this season, that’s not impossible. Esp if taking that Nkosokazi form/how she’s progressed, literally. The 4th there went close off 97 a couple of days back in a decent Ascot handicap. This is her trip I suspect. But yep she ticks enough boxes at that price in a race like this, win lose or draw.
      Had Stoutes won hard held LTO you’d be more concerned but she needs more. Fingers crossed.
      Josh

      Josh 13/08/20 10:27 AM Reply


      • Jockeys… i’m not 100% sure on what state of play is with Haggas and Doyle / Marquand? Godolphin have first dibs on The Doyler, Haggas next after that, and first dibs on Marquand (is he in effect stable jockey?) before he can then ride for others – I suppose various owners in the yard may have their preferences. Then of course he’s got young Fallon on the books also. Not a bad trio! As well as his training skill, being able to use those 3 probably helps keep that SR a constant 20%+

        Josh 13/08/20 10:54 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I take it there are no Kevin Stott/Ryan qualifiers today?

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 13/08/20 11:10 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike,

      Once i’ve done the Great St Wilfrid I plan to stare at that report and work out what to track! I have saved a few of them, but none today bar a handful for the ‘impact starting point ‘but I don’t plan to post those ones – but i’ll look at some of the trainer / track / class etc and work out which ones to track.

      Impact starting points angle today… 3.40 Ham and 5.20 Ham

      Josh

      Josh 13/08/20 11:14 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh

        Mike

        Michael Dennis 13/08/20 11:33 AM Reply


  • Mike Smith looks the pick of the Trainers for me at Hamilton today. 3/13 +16 current season.

    3.10 Black Friday ew
    3.40 Granite City Doc 2/2..3/4 overall
    4.50 Flying Moon
    5.50 Royal Countess

    Others
    2.10 Lady Celia 2/2

    Double
    1.35 Two cop Bob
    4.15 Reemannie

    Treble
    The 2 above
    2.40 Credible

    Michael Dennis 13/08/20 11:32 AM Reply


  • yesterdays sole c3+ had the winner may sonic.
    c-4-5-6 list had 3 winners and 7 places. musharrif finished 4th in the 3:40 at 25/1 most bookmakers were paying 4 places in that race.
    but i haven’t included him in the results.
    my picks. i think they are all still running. they need work!!!!

    today’s c3+ video replay list.
    Salisbury
    14:20 alpinista / chamade / queen power
    14:50 squelch/ kepala / ghaziyah

    rest of Salisbury decimated card c4-5-6
    12:45 apache jewel / crazy luck
    13:15 sidereal / starshiba / sycamore
    13:45 rosie mccann / amazon princess / shauns delight
    15:20 ironheart
    15:50 tuscan oasis / twice as likely
    16:20 burguillos
    16:55 captain marmalade.

    my picks.
    APACHE JEWEL E/W 12/1 one of those races where there isnt a lot of form to go around.
    the johnston horse could be anything but the market has caught on. apache jewels sole run was behind star of emaraaty which has done quite well for itself.

    ALPINISTA E/W 25/1 Been running well over in france and may have won last time out but got hampered in the final stages if the ground is changing today has to be worth a punt for a place. i also like CHAMADE and if it runs well im sure that will boost confidence in josh’s tip in the following race.

    TUSCAN OASIS 13/8 its a shorty but i think everything is in its favour today. has form of softer ground if the ground is changing
    perfect draw and likes to run from the front which nothing else in the race seems to do. gonna be a catch me if you can performance i think.

    might try and get bath up later not sure i got enough time for hamilton

    good luck eveyone

    Warren Bottomley 13/08/20 11:39 AM Reply


    • Well done Warrren, lovely winner in 2.20 even after the R4 (well, may not have been much of one when you got involved)… see, going is over-rated haha! It’s still a road there, no bother for her. Can’t say I had a penny on the race and sadly not her, damn! But with my hindsight eyes, how on earth was she 33s mid morning, madness, and great spot – placed in G3 and very nearly won LTO in listed and as you say with clear run may well have done. Superb. Your p/L for selections must be looking rather good now! The replay eyes working a treat

      Josh 13/08/20 2:30 PM Reply


      • cheers josh. yes after watching the vid replay it was the ground that swayed me i always for some reason when i see a horse thats been running in france think soft ground. dunno why…… lol ๐Ÿ™‚

        warren bottomley 13/08/20 2:35 PM Reply


        • Well firm/good to firm was an unknown, and at that price you don’t mind unknowns – she seemed to have all basis covered if any rain fell which it hasn’t as yet. Her maiden win was on Good. An quality owner/breeder in Ms Rausing and they’ll always want black type for their fillies if good enough, which she had but job done now she’s got a listed win on the board.

          Josh 13/08/20 2:38 PM Reply


        • Warren
          U r having great day long may u continue u to share.

          Mike

          Michael Dennis 13/08/20 4:28 PM Reply


      • I haven;t checked, but I suspect Sir Mark’s horses often like fast ground. Also, how they assess the state in France is probably different to here in the UK. France isn’t a significantly wetter country than the UK, after all. Or maybe they use watering more over there

        Matty Lamb 14/08/20 9:54 PM Reply


        • Ryan Tate could be a jockey to watch. Luke Morris isn;t getting any younger, and I notice he is getting more chances from Sir Mark. That was his first win in a Listed/Group race

          Matty Lamb 14/08/20 9:55 PM Reply


  • sorry, what do these red H1, H2 etc mean?

    Paul McCann 13/08/20 11:56 AM Reply


    • Hi Paul,

      They refer to Horse Race Base top 4 rated (H1/H2/H3/H4)

      They’re explained at the bottom of the ‘blog content explained’ link at top of every daily post… also here…

      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/My-Blog-Content-Explained.pdf

      And also touched on in last results update end of July, scroll through and you’ll see the red ‘Horse Race base’ section…

      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/08/03/flat-2020-end-july/

      In short it’s just added info to help is using any qualifiers as a ‘way in’ – some context for where the horse sits in the context of today’s race, given all my stats /angles are nothing to do with the ability of the horse/today’s race (trainer/jockey/sire angles etc) – Since i’ve been tracking since start of flat season they’ve developed into a sort of ‘strategy’ as per results link above, just backing all those horses listed in Sections 2 and 3 with a red ‘H’ next to their name has been profitable, 40+ points or so in the season to date.

      Josh

      Josh 13/08/20 12:02 PM Reply


  • Today’s Pearl of Wisdom?
    Back all Probert’s mounts (seven, no ride 700) at Bath to win a small fortune!
    Such a bet has been reported nationally!
    I’ve had backed Agent Basterfield 800 so the bet will fall at the last ๐Ÿ™

    Chris 13/08/20 1:13 PM Reply


    • Probert wins on his third ride

      Chris 13/08/20 5:05 PM Reply


  • c-4-5-6 video replay list
    hamilton
    13:35 two cop bop / better by far
    14:10 lyons lane / ballyare / astrophysics
    14:40 grigora / credible / kats bob
    15:20 alix james / autumn flight dark defender
    15:40 pour me a drink / iffraar / kingson / our girl sheila
    16:15 detective / sneak the peak / throne hall
    16:50 tigerten / flying moon / convivial
    17:20 millie the minx / frankster
    17:50 bratalab / royal countess / be bold

    my picks
    DETECTIVE/SNEAK THE PEAK E/W speculative punts theses but detective very well bred ex stoute/abdullah must have a win in him horse somewhere down here. sneak the peak was placed behind a couple that looked to be going places. big prices and top of the market might be to good but work an e/w go.

    warren bottomley 13/08/20 1:38 PM Reply


    • Great guns so far wb .. had a few matches and winners with you there them lists ๐Ÿ˜‰
      lgb

      GEORGE B 13/08/20 2:14 PM Reply


      • WB your nearly at my wife level now ………… boom diddy boom ๐Ÿ˜‰
        LGB ๐Ÿ˜‰

        GEORGE B 13/08/20 2:28 PM Reply


      • cheers george. i managed 33/1 on alpinista so i can sit back and relax today. ๐Ÿ™‚

        warren bottomley 13/08/20 2:30 PM Reply


        • you really are getting like my wife ๐Ÿ˜‰ ..lol
          have a great rest of he day and thanks
          lgb

          GEORGE B 13/08/20 2:34 PM Reply


  • MY WIFES’ BIG TIPS :

    4.30 leopards BELLA BRAZIL (doesn’t know how to run a bad race.. you have been warned ๐Ÿ˜‰ )
    ๐Ÿ˜‰
    as REQUESTED BY mc ๐Ÿ™‚
    LGB Over n out ๐Ÿ˜‰

    GEORGE B 13/08/20 3:03 PM Reply


    • on it george. got 15/2 harrington one of my favourites over in the emerald isle.
      fingers crossed ๐Ÿ™‚

      Warren Bottomley 13/08/20 3:17 PM Reply


      • HA HA .. YEP Mine toooo …. like her uk raiders as well …. jumps and flat .. i always look for nh non handicaps ridden by rm power …. used to make me some money .. may have dried up now ??? but i always look out for her ๐Ÿ˜‰ .. i just had a winner with her earlier ๐Ÿ™‚ .. stable in tip top form ๐Ÿ™‚
        LGB

        GEORGE B 13/08/20 3:30 PM Reply


  • lovely touch for the owners in the 3.40 ham .. owner had the top weight and one at the bottom .. surprise surprise the bottom weight won !! brilliant ๐Ÿ˜‰
    LGB

    GEORGE B 13/08/20 3:49 PM Reply


  • bath c4-5-6
    15:55 eagles dare / master of brazil
    16:25 balgair / sir plato
    17:00 the golden unicorn / professor unicorn
    17:30 q twenty boy / potters question / velvet vista
    18:00 something lucky / storm melody
    18:30 bal mal / star prize
    19:00 savanna gold / show of force
    19:30 derry boy / tiger zone / artillery
    20:00 elhafei / agent basterfield

    my pick
    SHOW OF FORCE E/W 40/1 been running over the sticks but has decent form on the flat and 10f seems to be the desired distance. at the price i think its a good e/w shot

    warren bottomley 13/08/20 3:52 PM Reply


  • K Stott/Ryan winner got 4s. Not on ur list josh but it was on Warren’s so gave it a couple of quid.

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 13/08/20 4:25 PM Reply


    • Oh yep, I just decided to focus on handicaps this time for various reasons, inc not being too overwhelmed – a bit different to Jim Crowley given his retainer/he rides plenty of blue bloods etc. Well, that was my thinking but yea looking at any Stott ride as a ‘way in’ doesn’t seem a bad ploy…and that’s a good use of the content /musings/comments from others! Well done.
      Josh

      Josh 13/08/20 4:50 PM Reply


      • His One Last Hug in 5.20 Ham also now hits one of angles i decided to save so we shall see how he goes at 4s or so

        Josh 13/08/20 4:51 PM Reply


      • Kevin Ryan seems to be getting more Maktoum horses to train now though

        Matty Lamb 14/08/20 9:58 PM Reply


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