Daily Members Post: 11/08/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(102 tips/16 wins/34 places (inc wins) /+80.35 points, advised/+72.85 Betfair SP)

#1 – 3.40 Wolvs – Union – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) UP, -1

As of 8am, that’s all for today, write up at bottom of post along with some other stats snippets… (as always don’t forget to ‘refresh’ the page to see any new content etc) 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.55 Hayd – Zoohoor (10/1< guide) 11/2 UP

5.30 Hayd – Countrebasse (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

5.30 Hayd – Always Resolute (9/1<) 18/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

5.30 Hayd – Western Duke (9/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

3.40 Wolvs – Union (x3 angles)  H2 7/2  UP

4.10 Wolvs – Canasta 20/1 UP

4.40 Wolvs – Come On Bear H1 Evens  WON 

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers 

3.40 Wolv – Union (3rd run since entering notebook) H2 7/2  UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Some Stats…

Before I get on to today’s tip a few stats for your notebook which caught my eye when flicking through the various races above…

J Parr 

Joseph Parr is the grandson of Alan Bailey who retired last month. In effect he’d been training his string since Christmas it seems, but he’s started well under his own licence… 4/15,6p +17 for all runners, 2/5,3p in the last 14 days.  (thanks to Geegeez Gold for those snippets, and the following…)

Adam Kirby / Haydock 

He appears to ride this course very well… 13/56, 26p +26 SP in the last 5 years.

Most of those are when riding for Clive Cox.. and when they team up here, in the last 5 years… 10/21, 14p , +44 SP.

That’s a sort of ‘back blind’ micro I think if that’s your cup of tea. Logically it should keep ticking along as Cox clearly knows the type to run there, and when to book the main man for the yard. Anyway, do with that as you please, Kirby has a few rides there today, and two for Clive, in the 1.25 and 2.25…

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Union…

I don’t think i’ve tipped/backed him since entering the notebook given the races/odds but he now rocks up back on the AW, at Wolvs, and hits a few of my Jack Mitchell angles. And in fact…

  • Varian at the track in the last year: 10/22, 15p, +2.6 SP
  • Jack at the track in the last year: 26/79, 44p, +14 SP
  • Both combined at track in the last year: 8/10,9p, +12 (not a bad record)

 

He entered the notebook after his Yarmouth return when beaten 4L having been held up cold, no doubt needing the run. The race turned into a bit of a dash and a fair few of them showed what seemed like above average ability to quicken off a steady pace, including him. As yet this race hasn’t worked out as strong as I thought it may do but three subsequent winners in behind him and a few places from those in front. Many have ran in some deep handicaps.

It’s actually his Newmarket run two starts back which jumps out. The 5 horses to have raced there are 4/9,5p since, including Zabeel Champion who we know well (he was actually behind Union at Yarmouth) , Al Maysan, Mafia Power and Maqtal in behind. All have won subsequently. That is the best recent handicap form in this race by quite some way I think. I don’t know what happened LTO when sent off at 13/8 up at Ripon, but it was after 34 days off which may suggest a minor hold up at home. In any case Ripon is one of those tracks which some horses just hate, up and down and cambered/ridges in places. Like with Newmarket he ran there as if worth a go over further. There’s plenty of stamina on the Dam side and he’s tactically versatile. And he does have a change of gear, as per the Yarmouth sectionals.

Maybe 7/2 is on the short side but he ticks so many boxes above I had to wade in really, but not without an assessment of the oppo who all have questions also. I did think he could be a point shorter here. The Burrows fav is short enough given what he’s achieved. This trip could unlock plenty more but he does need to settle, although he could have stacks in hand given the trainer’s MO, esp with handicap debutants. His form is only so so and his mark is hard to weigh up. Vindicate and Colonize are both unexposed and one could take this of course, given their profiles/trainers/owners. Both have 1st time headgear for a reason though I suspect, and i’ll happily oppose them. You’d think it’s between the four of them.

I do think on what they’ve done Union is the one to beat, especially as a return to an AW surface may bring about improvement also, as well as the step up in trip. Jack knows him well and fingers crossed he outruns his odds. I think he’s genuine and does put his head down like a trier. I’m sure he’s better than a mark of 85 but he does need to start showing it soon. Hopefully the other three are all too lit up and he can put on the turbos up the straight, game over.

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • Morning Josh, how’s the head?
    The initial puzzle is the Haydock ‘good to firm’? did they have heavy midnight rain?
    I’d already backed Union on the new trip and 140 Aussie Stormer.
    155 Paddy Power may be a play for me later too.

    Chris 11/08/20 8:00 AM Reply


    • Morning Chris, oh the head is fine, I was well behaved 🙂 Takes days to recover these days to have to be careful! Trying to move on from what could have been a Bday tipped winner in the Meehan horse at Chester, a LTO losing tip, hacking up. Damn. Hopefully someone’s pin landed on him, we move on…

      Haydock… oh who knows, the official going was changed after the 1st race at last meeting a few days back, riding slower than advertised – shock horror! – yep they had a fair bit of rain over night although it was probably never Good to Firm in first place. A Haydock Good to Firm, so Good to Soft! – A bit of a guessing game as to what that will be, and app some showers possible. I’d probably go with easy side of good – any horses that need firm in the going won’t get that.

      GL, Josh

      Josh 11/08/20 8:07 AM Reply


      • I was hoping for mud for Grandee 530 but a dry day too 🙁
        240 Is it time for Fircombe Hall to live up to his name on the track?
        325 Verbena – It seems Kirby only does 9st in extremis nowadays and Keniry gets this ride
        450 The Bethells send Steel Helmet to Surrey for this weak stamina trial and is an EW bet for me.

        Chris 11/08/20 8:31 AM Reply


  • A 9/4 winner and a loser on Monday.

    Two for Tuesday:

    4.10 Wolverhampton, Makthecat, 1 point each way. Drops back in distance after not staying ten furlongs last time out. Should get an uncontested lead. Clifford Lee back on board. has won in this class.

    5.40 Perth, Criagmor 2 points win. A solid win last time out. Richard Johnson rides. Won at class three. Stays OK.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 11/08/20 9:03 AM Reply


  • Yesterday’s results. C3+ had 3 winners 2 seconds and a third.
    C4,5,6 had 7 winners 2 seconds and 2 third places.
    My picks finally had a winner at 4/1 and a nice 40/1 place.
    No c3+ races today and I was going to do haydock but the need for sleep got the better of me. Of what I did look at a couple caught my eye.
    WALKONBY in the 1:25 haydock 28/1
    I AM THE SECRET 1:55 haydock 10/1
    Will be doing small e/w on both.

    Good luck everyone if your having a flutter 🙂

    warren Bottomley 11/08/20 10:18 AM Reply


    • Well done Warren, your lists are doing well 🙂

      Mark Curtis 11/08/20 10:54 AM Reply


  • I should cocoa.
    Today’s dual forecast:
    540 Chocolat Noir, Petite Ganache.

    Chris 11/08/20 11:07 AM Reply


  • A Watson 2yr old maiden / novices over 5 & 6F @  Wolves          13 from 27
    ridden by Hollie Doyle                                                                5 from 8.
    Igotatext  3/1 bet365

    compound dave 11/08/20 12:47 PM Reply


  • not much i fancy today so just a couple of multi’s.
    Perth.
    5-40. Court Baloo 9-1
    6-10. Ardera Cross 16-1 4p
    7-10. Voix D’eau 12-1
    50p ew patent
    Haydock
    2-25. Bashiba
    4-55. Nirodha
    5-30. Vis A Vis
    Lingfield
    6-55. Buckingham
    10p ew L15

    martin whittle 11/08/20 12:48 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh- that Cox/ Kirby pointer was spot on.

    Patrick Reilly 11/08/20 1:35 PM Reply


    • Ah super, well worth it if just one person took note! … beer paid for! 🙂

      Josh 11/08/20 1:36 PM Reply


  • Well I try and provide you with some nuggets as we trundle along…

    Cox + Kirby + Haydock… sometimes as easy as that, as the 8/1 shot goes in 🙂 Anyone have an interest nibble? …

    Josh 11/08/20 1:35 PM Reply


    • Cheers Josh, another golden nugget, small e/w interest and a win double with the other one, fingers crossed!

      James Barker 11/08/20 1:42 PM Reply


      • Super James, that’s the way to do it – oh yep a small win bet here, and possible a small EW double, but that will go down the drain like most bets like that. Still, job done with that first one. Rare do Trainer//Track/jockey combo stats from connections such as that stand out so much. And they don’t head up there many times through a season which gives more logical weight to the ‘behaviour’ (placement of horse/booking Kirby)

        Josh 11/08/20 1:53 PM Reply


    • ON IT AND THANKS : )

      GEORGE B 11/08/20 1:42 PM Reply


      • The kirby staright liners angle is very profitable as well 🙂
        kevin stott when his mount is sporting f.t.o. ckpcs from the ryan yard 😉

        GEORGE B 11/08/20 1:44 PM Reply


        • I’m in the midst of looking at Kevin and about to look at Kevin and Kevin 🙂 I’ll have a look and see if anything jumps out, inc headgear – but plenty of logic there for why he’d book him for a 1st time headgear horse if they know it does the trick at home etc
          Josh

          Josh 11/08/20 1:51 PM Reply


          • Josh Kevin Stott on turf 5 & 6 f Paul Midgley Favourites – high strike rate profit return is inflated by a 8/1 Fav but a solid angle

            final flight 11/08/20 3:14 PM Reply


            • Thanks for flagging, i’ve just had a quick dip into that.
              Does look solid for what it is, but I don’t tend to look at/like favourite angles.. that’s just a personal thing, but also when you’re blogging/posting up system bets etc, ones that rely on market position to ‘qualify’ are generally no go for obv reasons.
              But yep that’s 7/14, 9p +15 SP (inc joints) and if you can monitor to the off then keep that onside.
              They’ve had a good record this year generally, 6/13 +20, but last year were 6/63 or so, -32, although yard may have had issues last season.

              Josh 11/08/20 3:22 PM Reply


    • Definetly took note I got 10/1 on him
      🙂

      warren Bottomley 11/08/20 1:50 PM Reply


    • I was on mate. Big 2 quid!!

      Doug Ockwell 11/08/20 1:50 PM Reply


      • I mean I didn’t have much more! 🙂 That’s the way to do it.

        Josh 11/08/20 1:52 PM Reply


    • yep, i did too.

      Paul Tomkinson 11/08/20 2:13 PM Reply


      • Yes, got 10s too thanks Josh.

        Mark Curtis 11/08/20 3:19 PM Reply


      • Me to josh, plus an ew double. Looking forward to your Kevin stott/Ryan angles.

        Mike

        Michael Dennis 11/08/20 5:47 PM Reply


  • 3.40 W UNION / VINDICATE / AMJAADY = f/c & tricast .. i am not greedy 🙂
    n.b. AMJAADY = sire = war front does really well over this distance at wolves ???? 😉 e/w / 4tbp for me

    keeping the purple patch going ……………………….

    LGB

    GEORGE B 11/08/20 1:52 PM Reply


    • I looked at amjaady to George I took 33/1 e/w to 3 places bet365. 🙂

      warren Bottomley 11/08/20 2:24 PM Reply


      • That makes it a bit more re-assuring .. must be 3rd at least ..surely ?? .. hopefully .. really ?? .. will accept 2nd to Josh’s union … that sounds like a deal ! ?

        cheers WB .. and keep up the lists and all your good work on here 😉 … i am always watching and notating 😉
        lgb

        GEORGE B 11/08/20 2:49 PM Reply


      • we squeezed that in beautifully wb : )

        GEORGE B 11/08/20 3:45 PM Reply


        • i am also going to look at mr nolan riding on the aw …especially wolvers .. i have had a few good winners from him now .. maybe just me ??

          GEORGE B 11/08/20 3:47 PM Reply


          • Well done George. Spot on.
            I might re invest some of winnings in RED GIANT 7:10 over at Perth. Trainer jockey decent strike rate. Horse has had a blow out this season. Small e/w. 🙂

            warren Bottomley 11/08/20 4:24 PM Reply


  • Thankyou for these little pearls of wisdom Josh, did them both and managed to get 9/1 Zambezi Magic……perfect……thankyou again.

    Tom Murgatroyd 11/08/20 5:00 PM Reply


    • No problem Tom. Good to hear, that’s what it’s about.

      Josh 11/08/20 5:02 PM Reply


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