Daily Members Post: 08/08/20 (complete)

All Tipsx3 + write ups, Quals, pointers

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(101 tips/16 wins/34 places (inc wins) /+81.35 points, advised/+73.85 Betfair SP)

#1 – 2.50 Newm – Saunton – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP -1

#2 – 4.00 Newm – Yoshimi – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP -1

#3 – 4.45 Ascot – Whelans Way – 1.5 point win – 13/2 (SB/WH/BV) UP -1.5

ALL TIPS x3, 3.5 points, as of 9am, that’s all for today, write ups at bottom of post…

 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

12.30 Hayd – Huwaiteb (any, 9/2< best) 10/1 2nd

1.30 Hayd – Nicklaus (10/1< guide) H4 11/2 UP

1.30 Hayd – Dubai Mirage (10/1<) 7/2 WON 

3.00 Ascot – Kaloor (16/1<) 4/1 UP

4.25 Hayd – Aristocratic Lady (12/1< guide) H2 6/4 WON 

4.35 Newm – Laser Show (10/1<) H3 11/2 WON 

4.45 Ascot – Kick On Kick On (9/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

5.40 Newm – Dazzling Rock (16/1<) 6/1

 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

2.50 Newm – Saunton (10/1< guide) 14/1 UP

Jim Crowley (any odds)

4.10 Ascot – Al Madhar H3 4/1 UP

Jack Mitchell 

4.45 Ascot – Whelans Way H3 15/2 UP

Straight Track Specialists (trainers/ jockeys)

4.25 Hayd – She Can Boogie (any) H3 10/1 UP

4.35 Newm- Ajax Tavern (any) 12/1 UP

4.35 Newm – Sea Voice (any) 28/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.00 Ascot – Kaloor (1st run since tipped) 4/1 UP

3.35 Ascot – Caradoc (1st run) 7/2 UP

Hot-Form

4.00 Newm – Yoshimi (3rd run since ‘hot form’ race) 16/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Really Super… medical update…

Final update on her until she runs again… as expected something was up, i’m sure she’d long since matured from the ‘I can’t be bothered today’ type days, but never say never I suppose. Turns out she had abnormally high levels of lactic acid in her blood, and has ‘tied up’ (or, horse cramp) which can be painful and affects the muscles esp back and legs. So, that explains why she was lacklustre, and esp why her jumping was so scratchy. She also got very warm before the race and wasn’t her usual self. That may explain the weakness although we don’t bet enough to affect the market anyway and she’s drifted three of the times she’s won for us I think. EG she opened up at 14s when Plate market was first formed. She’ll be back at some point but when mares tie up (and she’s done it before but at home) it can be serious enough and she’ll be kept out of work for a short time I think, before building her back up to something. 

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Saturday Big Handicap Trainer Pointers

1.30 Haydock

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/with runners)

  • Nicklaus H4
  • So Beloved
  • Storm Ahead

4.00 Newm 

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/with runners)

  • Fox Champion H3 / Ziggle Pops
  • Yoshimi

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Tips write ups…

I’ve stuck like glue to the content above today and at the prices (to my subjective value eyes), three looked most interesting having had a good look at them all, although as always hopefully i’ve got some of the others wrong, esp any stats ‘H’ horses (sections 2/3), can get their heads in front…

Saunton…

The first of two pokes at Newmarket. He looked worth a got at 12s just to see whether the step up to 7f does the trick, combined with the more sedate pace in this 7 runner field. His first career run on 4th June at HQ was decent enough – plenty from that race would head to the Norfolk stakes, and run with credit. It was a performance which suggested there’s something to work with. He appeared a bit outpaced there, as he has every run over 6f to date, to my eyes anyway. That’s especially true at York last time. He was a bit sluggish from the stalls in a race where they didn’t hang around, visually at least. He looked to be going quicker than he wanted, using energy in the wrong part of the race. He made some sort of promising move disputing for 2nd around 2f out, before fading in the final furlong. I’d like to think he could be better than 73 at some point. Rossa is riding with confidence and he’s a good record at the Newmarket tracks, 7/16,7p in the last year. His breeding suggests he’s worth a go over 7f and it could be the key. It looks an open enough nursery handicap to my eyes. Hannon’s comments in his Unibet Blog wouldn’t put you off anyway, not at this price. He’s a dart, one that may miss the board completely, but worth throwing. Maybe Sean Levey had the choice, i’m not sure, and his is fancied also.

The fav… well 11/8 seems short for a twice raced 2YO, who’s yet to win, stepping up in trip and making handicap debut. That form LTO is solid though and he shapes as if 7f will unlock plenty more. Maybe he’ll bolt up but i’ll take him on, Michael Bell 1/31,9p at the July course in the last 730 days.

Yoshimi – 

Another dart… and i’ll start with the fav – you should never be scared of one horse in this game, certainly when 13/8, whacked 12lb from LTO (matching his RPR there of 97) and returning 15 days later, on 4th run of the season. And up 2 classes. He may well be ahead of the handicapper and dot up again, but he will catch up with him one day, and recent efforts will leave a mark at some point also, esp for a young horse. He’s also usually held up/can be keen, and he did benefit from a strong pace LTO. This race could be falsely run. So, I thought enough there to take him on and I certainly wouldn’t be backing him at that price. If you take him out, I thought this becomes very very open and anything could happen really. A fair few look out of sorts or high in the handicap….

Yoshimi – Fahey knows what it takes to win this race as per the pointers above. The horse is 1/6,5p on the turf, that win coming over 7f on Good to Firm, 6 starts ago in Sept 19. This is the first time since that day that he’s raced over 7f on fast ground. After that Muss win he finished 2nd in an ok C2 at Ayr, over 8f. He went into the ‘hot form notebook’ after his Newcastle return, the race that Palace Pier won (now a Royal Ascot G1 winner), beaten 6f (could have been much further obviously, winner doing it easily) but it was still solid, the second there rated 89. I’ll ignore 10f on soft two starts back although connections may well not know what ground he wants! Last time back at Newcastle was a bit underwhelming but when looking at the sectionals, a case could be made that he did far too much too soon and raced too inefficiently until 3f out, before those efforts caught up with him and he fell in a hole. Fahey’s also been a bit hit and miss so far this season and continues to be so, but they’re going better than they were. Barry M is 1/4,3p at the July course in the last 730 days, he doesn’t make the trip that often but seems to hit the board when he does. (he’s 3 other rides on the card also I think and i’m sure he could have ridden up at Haydock) I’m pretty sure he will be better than an 81 horse, when it clicks again. Even if it does click today, of course it may not be good enough in this line up, but he’s a 16s shot, not 4s. He should be able to sit in the front 3 through this race, hopefully saving plenty of energy and he’s a straight forward horse I think. Hopefully he kicks into the dip and keeps galloping.

Wheelan’s Way – 

The main hope of the day and I was a bit miffed as to why he wasn’t shorter in this line up. 6s was around in 3/4 places until 9.15 or so, and that’s why I post at set times, of around 8am, 9am and 10am latest – 15 minutes later and he’s either been tipped up by someone with influence and/or the market in general has just woken up to what a silly price 6s was – whether he runs his race or not. That was too big to my eyes. Maybe he’ll drift back out, i’d be surprised if he went shorter than 7/2 SP but who knows, and if you haven’t backed him now you could wait until final 10/15 mins on the machine where a decent price may be available again. I thought he should be 4s or so in this line up.

In sounding rather bullish he obviously has a couple of questions to answer… will the visor work again and will 5f be fine. His level of form without the visor has been solid through his career, including at Ascot where he’s 1/2, and one of those efforts in a deeper race than this. However the visor appeared to give him an added edge LTO, where they also changed tactics and raced him more forward (which you should always do with 1st visor/blinkers imo)- when you watch that back you can see how easily he travelled, and powerfully so – just the way you want them to travel when rocking up to a straight track Ascot handicap. (think of  a Sir Busker, or a Jawaal) I thought he showed enough pace there to suggest this stiff 5f, with those same tactics, would be fine. Racing more forward can be tricky here, but in this line up I don’t think being handy will be an inconvenience. Well, worth a go at 6s anyway. He should have some pace to track from Han Solo Berger, and Blue De Vega. The stalls are central and in 10 runners it should be one group up the middle. He will be able to challenge this side. He showed a devastating turn of foot LTO, putting the race to bed easily. He won cosily to me and this CD could well be ideal. I thought 82 could still be very lenient, IF that visor works again. But he seems genuine anyway.

I liked his form/profile/that performance better than anything else in here. Dashas is a danger but the highest mark he’s won off is 82 so far, and that was with a decent 7lb claimer. 85 here , no claim – a repeat run may be good enough but he is open to attack from something with more in hand, but it maybe does feel like one of those handicaps where the one that handles conditions best on the day wins (inc settling/handling the heat etc), rather than what’s thrown in. There’s no thoroughly unexposed horses on paper in this I don’t think.

So, fingers crossed. Hopefully Whelan’s can tank away in 3rd/4th, move out and power away in the final furlong. It will be either that or after 2/3f they’re going a stride too fast for him! I don’t think they will, but, he should be staying on in any case. If he can’t lay up, then i’ve visually misjudged the pace he showed LTO.

As always best of luck with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

  1. Early look at Ascot,
    3-00. surely Charlie D can’t run as bad a race as lto again, well touted that day and the 20-1 (27.0 bf) on offer could be a bit of a bargain come the off.
    2-25. I’m not convinced by Shelir and Jalad up another 5lb and up in class might have a bit much to do so what does that leave ? well i’m silly enough to give Via Serendipity another chance, won this 2 years ago beating Shady McCoy and has Hayley on board again , raced off 95 that day and runs today off 83. drawn 10/10 and that might not be a bad thing with nothing in the race that normally likes to lead it could get a bit muddled.

    1. nice win with Via Serendipity got 7-1 so happy with that, nearly landed a nice touch in the 7-00 Uttoxeter with West To Crossgales backed @16-1 but had it ew so a profit anyway.

  2. A 5/2 winner and a 7/1 place on Thursday and so a decent profit.

    Three picks at Ascot on Saturday:

    1.50, Chil Chil – his trainer is back in form, a good first run after a break, won in this class, won at this distance. 2 points win.
    3.35, Jeremiah – course and distance winner, trainer in form, won in this class last time out, up in the weights but still may be progressing aged five. 1 point each way.
    4.45, Hans Solo Berger – in good form of late, trainer in form, has won at a higher grade, should get an uncontested lead, another one up in the weights but may be able to get away with it. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

  3. Nothing form me today. Disappointingly a thing called the day job has gotten in the way. I’ll post results for Friday later this evening.

    Good look today 🙂

  4. Along with Josh’s tips and the guys over at always back winners. I’m gonna have an E/W interest on GRACEFUL MAGIC In the 1:50 at Ascot.
    Sorry for the double post guys 🙂

  5. Apart from on here it’s not often you can sing the praises of anyone connected to the racing industry but i just have to say that Matt at geegeez gold has just let me update from monthly to annual after the deadline as i stupidly had forgotten to do it, in fact i had paid another months subs on the 6th which he is kindly refunding. Now that’s what i call customer service as him doing this has cost him money and saved me a bundle, i know he visits here so thanks once again Matt your a gent.

  6. Had look at few races . Selections below

    12.40 Ascot……. Spirit Mixer 1pt e/w
    13.40 nmkt …… Babindi e/w 1pt e/w
    15.20 nmkt Danilova win only 1pt.

    currently plus 4.35 pts so hoping to add to this today with the above. Selections based on pedigrees and times .
    Good lck with whatever you are backing today.

    1. minus 1.18 pts on the day so still whittling away at the plus 4.35 leaving 3.17 in profit!! …hopefully better later on in the week…..some tasty big priced winners today if you could have found them….all the best

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