Daily Members Post: 06/08/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, quals…

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(97 tips/15 wins/33 places (inc wins) /+76.6 points, advised/+70.75 Betfair SP)

#1 – 3.50 Ripon – Bollin Joan1.5 point win – 13/2 (BetfS/PP) 11/2 (BV) 5/1 (888/Uni)

That’s all for today, as of 07.54, write up…

There’s still some 5s around in x3 places and plenty of 9/2, which I thought was at least one point too big in this. She entered the ‘hot form’ notebook on her seasonal return, not beaten too far by two horses who’d win their next starts, the winner going up to a mark beyond 100. She would have needed that return and the trip was sharp enough. Interestingly enough she’s never done too much on her first three starts of the last two seasons and she could well be running into form, with the added bonus of that mark coming down! Tim is just starting to fire and the main man gets the leg up. Easterby/Allan are 5/25,9p in handicaps at Ripon in the last year. This is the weakest race she’s run in for quite some time and her best efforts are much better than what anything in here has achieved since the start of last season. Her form has a solid look to it with so many of her races producing numerous winners, efforts in a higher grade than this. She drops back down from a competitive York C3 LTO into this small field C5, and back up to a more suitable distance. There really is no excuse for a big run today to my eyes.

The pace/tactics are also interesting – she’s versatile and there shouldn’t be an excuse but David could try and dictate if he wants to. I wonder if Buick may try and wind this up from the front – it is there to be stolen by someone but provided she’s not too far away, no excuse. A long enough straight here to get rolling. I’m fairly bullish about her here, hence the 1.5 points, and part of that comes from the questions the oppo have to answer…

Of the rest…

St Gallen looks short enough to me. I’m not 100% sure he’s chucked in from this flat mark and he does have stamina to prove over 1m4f on the flat. His flat efforts give a mixed message as to that. The Murphy yard are not totally firing in recent days either, well 0/12,5p last 14 (places solid) but 4/41, 12p last 30. They’ve booked Buick but he’s clearly up here for the Crisford horse I suspect. Still, he’s all class and a positive. Maybe he’ll bolt up but the sort I’m happy to take on at that price, with the questions he has.

As I am with Competition – the market suggests i’ve got him wrong but he’s up from C6 races around Bath, Bollin down from C4s, and a C3 at York (and not disgraced). Maybe he’s still well handicapped but he’s 8, not an unexposed 3YO and the yard are 3/97, 25 last 30 days, 1/41, 8p last 14. IF the selection runs her race, I can’t have him beating me at 10/3. If he does, so be it. Happy to take him on and be wrong.

As I am the rest – Cote DAzur’s mark continues to plummet but that’s because he hasn’t won for an age and could be regressive. His recent runs are better and now they reapply the hood (aged 7 he’s still never learnt to drop his head, 0/3,0p in it to date) and step him up to 1m4f – he’s just lost some zip I think and he’s not proven to stay. Maybe with age it’s what he wants but at 5s or so I couldn’t back him. And the other three can beat me, I didn’t like them either!

So, no doubt I’ve got one of them wrong but Bollin looked overpriced in this line up for me. If she gets back to that effort on seasonal return, and any number of decent runs last season, that would be good enough to win this. I don’t think her mark will be beating her, and I didn’t think anything in here looked chucked in – well, Cote obv is if this trip is the key now.

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2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None.

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot Form

3.50 Ripon – Bollin Joan (3rd run) H3 5/1

 

Losing Tips

4.40 Bath – Overwrite (2nd run) H1 4/5

 

5.Other/Updates

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Yesterday’s Email/Special Offers... if you haven’t read it, may interest some of you, esp if in the hunt for a new service to trial, inc racing, golf, ‘trainer quotes’ etc… have a read HERE>>>

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Really Super…

As I sit here i’m baffled by the market! She’s now 4s in places and while the betting is only ever a cherry on top of the cake, I just don’t understand. Mind you, timeform gave her x3 stars, the same as the 11YO in this, and of the 14 RP ‘tipsters’ in the racecard, none of them went for her! Baffled. She hacked up last time in the Summer Plate for goodness sake. I don’t think 11lb extra would have stopped her. The actual weight isn’t an issue for her. Its the best recent form in this by a mile, and three of the vanquished from the Plate line up again. If she runs her race she has them beat again imo.

She’s clear Top Rated HorseRaceBase also, I mean, what could go wrong?! 🙂

I don’t know how she’s bigger than Newland’s – her form is just better, and he’s up 10lb also. Yes he’s unexposed/progressive but would he have won the Plate? Nope. What am I missing? I can’t have the Nicholl’s horse, 1 career win, he struggles to get his head in front/find for pressure – mainly as he can blow a gasket on the way round, struggle to settle, and not have much left come the end. IF he drops his head he’d be interesting, but not for me at 7/2. I can’t have the other three. Fidux is an obvious danger given LTO but we did stuff him and he ran as if he was fit enough. Still, I suppose in theory he should be closer, that’s if he doesn’t hit a fence or three on the way round, which he can.

Anyway, while I have biased eyes I really do think this is all about Super, whether she turns up, and whether she runs her race. All indications suggest she will. Amy’s never had her better at home, she came out of Market Rasen the best she’s ever come out of a race. She’s going so well it was decided we needed to run her sooner rather than later, this the first suitable race. There was talk of a 3 miler at Market Rasen and up at Perth, later in the month – but when they’re going as well as she is, you need to run them. Of course, every indication is that she’s getting better, LTO a career best and she could step forward again. She should track the pace (2/3 of them can bowl along, as can she if nothing going quick enough) and if jumping as well as LTO, we will have some fun. She is the one to beat for me. It’s a decent enough pot to win, if possible.

Does the handicapper have her? I’m not sure he does, but we will find out soon enough. Fingers crossed she runs her race and comes home safe. We shall see where that effort puts her but I hope she obliterates them! 🙂 It’s a game for dreamers.

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The next couple of days…

Note… there will be NO Trends Thursday post this week.. I can’t see any Heritage Handicaps and I think most of the ITV handicaps on Sat are fairly new. I could be wrong. I’ll dig out any ‘trainer records’ pointers for Saturday’s post.

I’m away this afternoon/into tomorrow, but you shouldn’t notice much difference as always. I’ll schedule Friday’s post before I leave.

Josh

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. A 9/4 winner on Wednesday, a 7/1 place and a loser.

    On Wednesday I like two at Stratford:

    5.20, See The Sea – trainer and jockey in form, distance winner, pace stats suit front runners. 2 points win.

    7.50, Dream Bolt – a good old chaser, class winner, course winner, distance winner. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

  2. todays c3+ video replay list
    ripon
    13:15 bossipop / watchable / roundhay park
    bath
    16:40 clem a / overwrite / dubai instinct
    my picks
    BOSSIPOP a competitive race full of well exposed animals that have probably all met each other along the way. why Bossipop today well course record reads 15 runs 4 wins 7 places so he likes it around here. off a mark of 81 which he has won at he’s carrying a nice light weight today and the draw looks to be on his side today and has done most of his best work on good going. jockey knows the horse and last time out the gap didn’t appear and did well to finish 3rd. 7/1 looks a nice price to me.

    as always good luck everyone 🙂

  3. going for some money towards my new roof 🙂
    £1 accum
    Bollin Joan @ 11/2 Win – 15.50 Ripon
    Henley @ 7/2 Win – 13.45 Ripon
    Fishable @ 13/8 Win – 15.20 Ripon
    Snowfall @ 7/2 Win – 13.00 Leopardstown
    Really Super @ 7/2 Win – 19.20 Stratford
    Potential Returns: £1,554.82

        1. great minds think alike. two different views came to the same conclusion. thats a positive in my book 🙂

      1. Haha,, thank the Lord. The 4 year curse! Nah its probably not that long and very illogical! Well done fella. The Stars aligned.

  4. as its my day off work i thought i would go through the rest of the flat cards for fun and see how i fare with the lower classes today
    i’m not tracking these as of yet but the my picks will.
    they are not tips just my thoughts and observations and what i do track is just to see how im doing.
    Ripon
    12:45 perfect times / hilarity / hungry for fashion
    13:45 awsaaf / van gerwen / robot boy
    14:20 innse nortonthorpe boy / eagle eyed freddie
    14:50 clearence / kensington art / billy no mates
    15:20 striding edge / fishable / richie valens
    15:50 st gallen / cote d azure
    16:20 just the ticket / teescomponentsfly / finely tuned
    bath
    14:10 vedute
    14:40 al dawodiya
    15:10 princley / the lacemaker
    15:40 show me the bubbly / moonraker / port noir
    16:10 alfies watch / miraz / some picture
    17:10 rock of fame
    17:40 russian rumour

    my picks
    JUST THE TICKET. this one caught the eye from the video replay with what you didnt see. came round the bend a long way back from the leaders but still managed to finish 6th
    wich was not a bad effort. its early days for most of these in there careers and the favourite might just have the measure of the all today.
    he has a big owner and may just be a bit better than what we have seen so far.

    RUSSIAN RUMOUR looked to be staying on last time out so the further trip may be whats needed. the ground is an unknown but thats not a negative in my eyes until results say otherwise
    12/1 i think is big considering nothing has considerably better form in this race. improvement not out of the question.

  5. First of all isn’t a kind of REALLY SUPER Day 😉 bon chance josh …If she is in the mood she shall win …. but i will be taking up the offer from betfair of a third place pay out as well and looking for tasty f/c 😉
    thought of the day :
    progeny of Holy Roman emperor with f.t.o. blinkers = very good 🙂 = from “freebie notes”
    = 3.10 Bath MY STYLE = must be a win bet to 3tbp on bf bet to nothing in this race

    have fun all 🙂
    LGB

      1. f/c in the 1.45 wb .. thx .. i had van gerwn on my list so happy days 🙂 … gutted for watchable in the race before chinned on the line …. couldn’t believe it got beat ? .. ebven bfair got it wrong !! (wide apart 🙁 )

        we carry on my man !! 🙂
        lgb

          1. yep nearly ………………..not quite the cigar .. i don’t smoke anyway 😉
            keep up the good work ! 🙂

  6. is there any news on Super Josh??
    Seems strange the drift, runs like last time and will take some beating

    1. I was so miffed I messaged her groom who’s in the horsebox with her… Well, I assume in the cab… Anyway he said all fine, she’s bouncing, form of her life at home..
      I don’t get the price, win lose or draw, she should be 5/2 fav in that line up. End of.

  7. bollin joan ….. well i never …….woopedy woop woops .. on my list thanks mr magician man josh 🙂 … what a really really super day this can turn out 2b 🙂
    lgb … still going !1 🙂

  8. here is the bakers f/c & tricast horses for really supers race 🙂
    REALLY SUPER / DARLING MALTAIX/MORE BUCKS

    good luck one n all 🙂 especially josh of course 🙂
    back safe n sound thatz all that counts ! 🙂
    LGB off for an early tea around the duke of devonshire’s pad 🙂

  9. Yes good pick again Josh. I suppose your assessment of Really Super is a true test of your ability to think objectively, if that’s at all possible in your situation?!

    I’m hoping for a good and safe run, all the best.

    GL

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