Daily Members Post: 03/08/20 (Tipx1/complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

 

#1 – 4.30 Yarm – Delilah Park – 1 point win – 18/1 (BV) 16/1 (gen)

that’s all for today, as of 08.52 … write up at the bottom…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.45 Hayd – Mac Ailey (9/1<) 16/1 ‘DNQ’ 3rd

4.15 Hayd- Bolly Bullet (8/1<) H1 9/2 UP

6.45 Wind – Taawfan (any) H1 5/4

7.45 Wind – Eternal Prince (7/1<) 9/4

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

4.00 Yarm – Molly Shaw 3/1

4.30 Yarm – Delilah Park 18/1

5.30 Yarm – Glen Esk H4 11/4

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

1.45 Hayd – Makthecat (1st run, ew return LTO) H1 7/2 UP 5/1 UP

3.15 Hayd – Arecibo (1st run) H4 5/2 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Note: a results update post for June/July will follow later today. 

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Tips write up…

Delilah Park… as I sit here typing i’m bemused as to how she’s 16/1 in this line up, that price more than making up for the two glaring questions she has to answer (turf/Q after LTO). Were this at Kempton and all other conditions the same, inc the oppo, she’d be a 5/1 shot in this line up based on her form. If not competing for favouritism. Hopefully Jack and Chris Wall have a decent day, they’re 6/22, 10p when teaming up in the last year, only +1 point to SP though. The yard couldn’t be in better form, 4/11, 6p in the last 14 days, 7/25, 11p in the last 30. Wall’s Yarmouth runners are 8/20,11p, +17 in the last year – that could be worth noting for the rest of the season. Jack must be on his way to one of his best seasons i’d have though, and he rides this place well – 6/19, 10p here in the last year. So, plenty of foundation boxes ticked there. The horse..

Well she’s the form to beat these i’ve no doubt about that. Two starts back she beat Afraid of Nothing off 81 (turf mark of 80, RPR of 90 – she’s well handicapped if transferring AW form). That rival came into it on 89, she was having her first run of the season but was fancied and ran well. She would come out next time, off 90, and put Amy’s Breath of Joy in her place at Chelmsford – she lines up here at 7/2. Simply based on that piece of form this price disparity is mystifying. She’s been in the form of her life since last August really, running well/winning in decent enough handicaps that have produced numerous winners.

Now, she may hate turf and run as her price indicates. But it’s an unknown on only her 4th turf run. She has run here before on her second career start in July 17, beaten 4l over 8f. She ran over Windsors 6f last May, first run in 149 days, sent off 22/1. And her only other turf start has been at Haydock, in heavy. Plenty of her sires offspring go on fast ground and at this price I won’t be put off by those questions. The other niggle is her form but fillies/mares in particular can throw in a stinker and connections couldn’t offer an explanation for her run LTO. She just ran flat. Which, she may do again. But at 16s I’m going to have to pay to find out. I think she can be ‘tricky’ down the start/ prem-lims but Jack gets on with her well and hopefully no issues.

The stalls are in the centre here and on paper there’s a bit of pace middle to low, that she can track/get cover. If she runs her race she’s no 16s shot in this line up.

Of the rest… well it does feel open and i’m not sure anything arrives chucked in. Simcock’s is lightly raced but has a trip question, at the price. (although i’d have him as the main danger if building on that solid York effort – this isn’t as deep, but he can be ridden cold) Amy’s should run her race, Quinn’s is hard to weigh up but should be more to come. Johnston’s has a stamina question and you can make cases for Fanshawe’s (although the selection stuffed him at Kempton in September)  and Fahey’s – but as I type i’m not running scared of anything at shorter prices.

So, fingers crossed she’s nibbled at/takes to turf. We will have some fun if she runs her race and she should be thereabouts.

I won’t dwell on last week for too long-  i’m very disappointed with my Goodwood efforts, only one selection running well, getting done on the line by a horse I shouldn’t have been so dismissive off at his odds/my history with him. Not a good week and Saturday’s pokes are all still running, and much to ponder with those sprint handicap efforts. Bad selections are one thing, not being close enough to the winners always annoys me more. Poor. I never look for excuses for why a tip runs poorly – it’s a pet hate of mine generally with people who run services etc. My analysis was wrong/the selections not good enough. Simple. The blame always lies with the ‘tipster’. Many things in this game are predictable, those factors/elements that are not, no doubt even out over time.  So, some lessons to learn there that i’ll think on. I may not be so gun-ho next year-  maybe that points total at the time went to my head and I was throwing around too many hopeful darts at times. In with some poor decisions on shorter priced ones. A reminder from the betting gods to not get overly confident. Moving on…

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • Just a 5/4 winner on Saturday and 2 losers.

    Monday picks:

    4.30 Yarmouth, Gobi Sunset, 1 point each way – Mark Johnston runner at Yarmouth, course winner, won in this class, likes to lead which should suit here, draw OK.
    6.45 Windsor, Alibaba, 2 points win – Been winning at class 5 and now steps up a grade, course and distance winner, improving 3YO, likes to lead, draw OK.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 03/08/20 9:09 AM Reply


  • Just to reiterate these are not tips they are just my thoughts that I share with you good people.
    Yesterday’s c3+ had just 2 seconds.
    Today’s c3+video replay list.
    Haydock
    15:15 arecibo / mountain peak
    Windsor
    17:40 magical pride / arcanda / total commitment
    18:15 just glamorous / spoof
    My picks
    SPOOF back down to below last winning mark and has a nice low weight to help out. Recent form nothing to write home about but video replays shows things may be improving in the right direction and headgear from today will hopefully do the trick and yard in good form.
    7/1 to my eyes looks good value.

    As always good luck 🙂

    warren Bottomley 03/08/20 9:44 AM Reply


  • don’t understand why dense star305.Naas can be backed at 33s this morning.first time up she finished 1 3/4 lengths in front of measure of magic(only 5/2 today ) giving 3lbs. and lto finished 2nd to steel bull who turned out a week later and despite trouble in running was an impressive winner of the group3 molecomb at goodwood.

    pete sharp 03/08/20 10:30 AM Reply


    • yep you n me both i have these players in the 3.05 naas to “dutch”
      DENSE STAR/DICKIEDOODA/MEASURE OF MAGIC/GRAMMATA

      good luck to us all 🙂

      GEORGE B 03/08/20 12:39 PM Reply


  • New Results update posts, with spreadsheets (inc online version) Here…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/08/03/flat-2020-end-july/

    Josh

    Josh 03/08/20 12:05 PM Reply


  • Lord GB! I’ve found an article about the man you take your pen name from… well, him and four other influential historical figures of the turf…worth a read for those who like their racing history…

    https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/why-racing-owes-such-enormous-debt-these-four-men/

    Josh 03/08/20 12:42 PM Reply


    • Thanks josh ….. yep we are a very interesting ancestral family ( i am from the illegitimate side 🙁 of the family unfortunately 🙁 .. we think as a result of a party in honour of Disraeli who often stayed up at Welbeck Abbey and who my Uncle george sponsored and paid for his house in West London just so he could be of the right status to become the new prime minister ….. and the rest is history 🙂 ) and don’t let us even get involved into the fact that us Portlands were embroiled in the largest ever court case in history !! .. lol why Julian fellowes has not made a epic drama series on us yet ..only heaven knows !! 🙂 .. I would of course be available for the elad character 🙂

      Fine rgds
      LGB

      GEORGE B 03/08/20 12:50 PM Reply


  • Just to post that there will be no more Ascot List runner posts as the list has run its course. A good initiative by the BHA to get trainers to nominate what they considered to be the best two year olds in their yards in response to the current health crisis….I wish they would do that every year, irrespective of any pandemic as it has been a useful tool, other than market prices, to identify good horses that may win. Top of the shop was Nando Parrado for the Clive Cox stable…..sadly not a selection but the trainers on the list, listed below, are well worth considering when it comes to two year old horses in training:

    Adrian Nicholls, Alan King, Amanda Perrett, Andrew Balding, Archie Watson, Ben Haslem, Bill Turner, Brian Ellison, Brian Meehan, Bryan Smart, Charles Hills, Charlie Appleby, Charlie Fellowes, Christopher Mason, Clive Cox, Daniel Kubler, David Evans, David Loughnane, Dominic French Davis, Donald McCain, Ed Dunlop, Ed Walker, Eve Johnson Houghton , Gay Kelleway, George Baker, George Boughey, George Margarson, George Scott, Grqant Tuer, Harry Dunlop, Heather Main, Hughie Morrison, Hugo Palmer, Iain Jardine, Ismail Mohammed, Ivan Furtado, J.S. Moore, James Ferguson, James Given, James Grassick, James Tate, Jamie ~Osborne, Jane Chapple-Hyam, John Gosden, John Quinn, K.R. Burke, Keith Dalgleish, Kevin Ryan, Les Eyre, Liam Bailey, Marco Botti, Marcus Tregoning, Mark Johnston, Mark Loughane, Michael Appleby, Michael Attwater, Michael Bell, Mick Channon, Mike Murphy, Milton Harris, Owen Burrows, Paul Cole, Paul D’Arcy, Paul Geoprge, Phillip Makin, Ralph Beckett, Richard Fahey, Richard Hannon, Richard Hughes, Robert Cowel, Richard Spencer, Rod Millman, Roger Teal, Roger Varian, Saeed bin Suroor, Semus Mullins, Simon and Ed Crisford,Simon Dow, Sir Mark Prescott Bt, Sir Mark Todd, Steph Hollinshead, Stuart Williams, Tim Easterby,, Tom Clover, Tom Dascombe, Tom Ward, William Haggas, William Jarvis, William Stone.

    These are the trainers that submitted 2yo horses for the Ascot list 2020 and have included them so that those interested can delve deeper into stats for individual trainers if they so wish, to find possible profitable angles for punting in 2 yo races. Hope this proves useful going forwards. Happy hunting!

    silver 03/08/20 12:55 PM Reply


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