Daily Members Post: 01/08/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(95 tips/14 wins/31 places (inc wins) /+66.8 points, advised/+65.05 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.50 Good – One Hart – 1 point win – 25.00 (betf exch) UP

#2 – 1.50 Good – Dark Shot – 1 point win – 36.00 (betf exch) UP

#3 – 3.35 Good – Barbill – 1 point win – 28.00 (betf exch) UP

#4 – 3.35 Good – Silent Echo – 1 point win – 50.00 (betf exch) UP

#5 – 5.15 Galway – Takarengo – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

That’s all for today, x5 tips, x5 point outlay, #1-4 as of 9am, #5 as of 10am. 

10 minute video preview… (that’s a rush for me, i’ve probably omitted something obvious!) 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.30 Newm – Casual Reply (any) 11/2

2.40 Newm – Rosadora (16/1<) 12/1

3.35 Good – Nahaarr (10/1< guide) H3 9/2

3.35 Good – Atalantas Boy (16/1<) 16/1

4.50 Chep – Tribal Commander (9/1<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’

7.30 Chep -Music Therapist (8/1<) 7/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Trainers

4.40 Good – Dingle

Jim Crowley (any)

3.00 Good – Enbihaar 8/11

4.10 Good – Fleeting Prince 20/1

Straight Track Specialists (trainers/jockeys – not horses) 

2.05 Newm – Famille Rose H4 5/2

3.35 Good – Angel Alexander (any) 40/1

3.35 Good – Hey Jonesy 20/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers 

4.10 Good – Society Lion (1st run/ sectionals) H2 6/4

Losing Tips

3.35 Good – Angel Alexander (1st run) 40/1

5.10 Good – Overwrite (1st run) H2  7/1

7.30 Chep – Music Therapist (1st run) 7/1

5.15 Galway – Takarengo – 12/1 (1st run)

 

5.Other/Updates

Goodwood + Galway Micro Quals

(as per report HERE>>>)

Goodwood

Trainer/Jockey Combos

1.50 – One Hart

2.25 – Kings Advice

3.35 – Meraas H2

4.10 – Homespin

Galway 

T Mullins (20/1<)

4.45 – Star Image

5.15 – Excelcius / Takarengo

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Goodwood Feature Handicap Pointers

1.50 – Stewards Sprint Handicap (consolation race)

Trends

My 12/12 stats/trends pointers, as per the ‘Thursday Trends’ post point to 12/142 runners, 30p, and IF they hold up again, in this strange renewal which is much weaker than previous years (and a smaller field than can be the case) then one of the following will be winning…

Tommy G / Secret In The Park  /Music Society /Highly Sprung /Dark Shot

 

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/with runners)

  • Tommy G / Call Me Ginger H4/ Primos Comet
  • Batchelor Boy

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3.35 – The Stewards Cup

The above pointers may turn out to be no good, as can be the case with such an approach in these races but they did help ‘narrow down the field’… however, my trends/stats for this race don’t really help at all! They don’t knock out many and could well be best ignored this time… using all of my main trends pointers to narrow the field leaves 7/12 winners (and none of last 3), 7/36 runners, 10 places, and still leaves 8…

Meraas H2/ Hey Jonesy / Lexington Dash / Swindler / Watan / Chairman of The Board/ Mr Lupton / Concierge

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/with runners)

  • Nahaar H3
  • Aljady
  • Stone of Destiny

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

42 Comments

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  • A decent day to end the month – A 7/2 winner, places at 12/1 and 7/1 and a 25/1 shot beaten in a photo for third. I need to check my figures to see where the month ended.

    Three for Saturday at Goodwood:
    2.25, Kings Advice – course and distance winner, Johnston – Fanning combo, 2/2 at the course, won in this class. 1 point each way.
    3.35, Angel Alexander – very high draw here but if you are drawn high then very high is best, visor fitted for the first time, forgive last run. 1 point each way.
    4.10, Cold Front – trainer and jockey in form, will get the lead he wants here, won well LTO. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 31/07/20 9:49 PM Reply


    • +6.5.in July; +12 in June.

      Martin Colwell 01/08/20 9:44 AM Reply


      • Martin well done on the past 2 months, and good to see the profits, it is a great indication to anyone new coming on board who to follow when there is so much to take in at the start, to everyone the losing months should be put up as well, now that is the hard part.
        Colin

        cleafe 01/08/20 1:25 PM Reply


    • Cold front is a non runner and so Katara is off the bench and plays. 3.15 Newmarket, 2 points win.

      Martin Colwell 01/08/20 9:46 AM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ list 4 winners 2 seconds nothing much to write home about . pablo escobarr was the best at 9/2
    my picks. painful. i didnt get to see the race live but after watching it when i got home as close as its gonna gets. unlucky but e/w was the right call.
    of the other 2 porfin ran like a rank outsider but risque got beaten by a neck into forth. again unlucky but thats how it goes.
    on to today. just goodwood today as work commitments unfortunately limit time and saturdays historically not that great for me.
    13:50 rewaayat / the lamplighter / may remain / treacherous
    14:25 quloob / mordred / shailene
    15:00 enbihaar
    15:35 george bowen / swndler / atalanta boy / watan
    16:10 society lion / homespin / manigordo
    16:40 titian / golden flame
    17:10 overwrite / cityzen serg / lord glenaghcastle
    my picks.
    HOMESPIN E/W society lion and cold front head the market potentially improving 3yr olds but its hard to say. society lion was narrowly beaten by tiger crusade which was beaten into third the other day in a class 3.
    cold front won well enough but both 2nd and 3rd haven’t been seen since so not sure how your supposed to judge it. same can be said for king ragnor. these are all 3yr olds so potentially all could improve. homespin a couple of good wins last year they tried something bigger with him it didnt work. finished plum last first time out this year official going good to firm?? watch the replay it wasnt it was soft. horse clearly didnt like the ground. put in the mj factor, they have won this a few time, better ground and 18/1 looks overpriced to
    me in a race where the form at the top of the market isnt guaranteed. i will mention MANIGORDO not done much wrong hannon in form wouldnt suprise if it makes the frame or better. ill be having a nibble on this to e/w
    LORD GLENAGHCASTLE small E/W. its speculative punt time. been off the track for an age but on form prior it looks quite solid. so it seems a strange race to pitch him in on his return because there are some good animals in here. surly there are easier races to ease the horse back into racing after such a long break. so either its prctice for the appentice jockey or they know something we dont. either way at 33/1 i think he will either be there or still running when i post sundays picks up.

    as always good luck everyone

    warren bottomley 01/08/20 6:11 AM Reply


  • just got back from walking dog on the beach so have time for a proper post,
    well Galway looks like going out with a whimper instead of a bang not much to get excited about but a couple that look interesting.
    3-45. Spruce Meadows 25-1 bog 5 places, with nothing standing out in this race i thought his 4.5l 6th to Njord lto over 10f was fair form dropping back to a mile should suit as he was challenging at the 8f mark only for his effort to wilt at 9f , Njord ran a cracker earlier this week only beaten a nose and this is far less of a test.
    5-15. Pearl Warrior 14-1 bog 5 places, Princess Zoe looks the one to beat but PW’s stats stack up quite nicely and worth an ew punt, Insignia Of Rank at a very big price might be worth a bit of loose change.
    5-45. Andratx 16-1 bog 5 places, his only flat win was in soft over c&d , he has now had 3 runs since coming back from injury and is hopefully fully fit for this.Tuamhain at a massive price might be worth a little nibble.

    martin whittle 01/08/20 9:01 AM Reply


  • Just finished looking at Goodwood and Josh will be pleased to know i don’t like any of his tips 🙂
    1-50. Secretinthepark 25-1
    2-25. Kings Advice 7-1
    3-35. Mr Lupton 40-1 6 places
    4-10. Tomfre 8-1
    5-10. Anything Today 16-1
    Newmarket just one i like,
    12-55. Belgair 8-1
    GL all.

    martin whittle 01/08/20 9:14 AM Reply


    • haha – GL Martin – I thought Secretinthepark would run a good race, i’m hoping something better than him/sees it out better as he was a late ‘line through’ on my tipping shortlist. As per video I have had £2 on machine just in case i’ve got him wrong- his recent RPRs are up there with career bests, should race up there. So, apols for being the curse this time!
      Anyway some nice prices there, hopefully a few go in.
      Josh

      Josh 01/08/20 11:43 AM Reply


  • DARK SHOT !!! Josh what you doing to us. Lol
    Would be painful to see it win.
    Wasted a few quid on that one.
    But now you’ve tipped it I’ve got to get the lose change out 🙂

    warren Bottomley 01/08/20 9:21 AM Reply


    • I mean why oh why did they have to remove the headgear!! They keep that on I probably leave him but he’s never won in headgear and it ‘could’ be the change that sparks him – his best runs of 2019 would be good enough to win this, esp from that mark. Suspect he’s just out of form/love with the game, but given the above, his place on trends shortlist, his prom style etc – well, I couldn’t help myself. A dart that will probably miss the board! But that’s the sprint handicapping game at those odds.

      Josh 01/08/20 9:31 AM Reply


      • I agree the horse has ability and must have drove the owners and trainer mad over the years trying coax it out. I would imagine for them only the Messiah appearing in physical for on earth would be a more momentous event lol.
        But you never know and one time you don’t is the time the ability rears its head.
        I do like a speculative e/w punts. 🙂

        warren Bottomley 01/08/20 10:02 AM Reply


  • Selections today

    TOMMY G consolation 5 places 7/1 obtained
    MERAAS Stewards 7 places 7/1 obtained

    40% ew both and 10% ew double

    Not happy with the prices for the win but I do expect to collect the place part so will accept that

    tough day

    Richard 01/08/20 10:16 AM Reply


  • I forgot to post yesterday as is my forgetfulness atm, so won’t hold it against you if you disbelieve I picked Nibblers charm and Great White shark…Doh!
    Anyways onto today’s.

    15:35 Goodwood
    BARBILL 1pt win 25/1 gen
    SWINDLER 1pt win 12/1 gen

    15:45 Galway
    YAFADOUBE 1pt win 5/1 gen
    SIR JACK THOMAS 1pt win 10/1 gen

    17:15 Galway
    HALIMI 1pt win 9/1 gen
    TAKARENGO 1pt win 12/1 gen

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with your selections today!

    Stewart Mcmillan 01/08/20 10:18 AM Reply


    • Sounds like your Irish eyes have been in fine fettle, I don’t know how you do it over there! Well done.

      Pleased to see we agree on a couple, esp the 5.15 Galway. With any luck he’s supported as I think that’s significant for those connections here, we shall see.
      GL

      Josh 01/08/20 11:41 AM Reply


      • I really look for false favourites and there are loads, then there are always false gambles and the fact that our bookies don`t know how to price up the races and most of the time the top yards have three or more runners in a race, which concertinas the betting market. It is a bit weird and I know Paul Nicholls et al would be ridiculed for it over here, but, it seems to work over in Ireland, you just need to know which one of the horses from the top yards to back, so, i do the old pari mutual with a lot of them and dutch the 2-3 that i feel will show best. If sometimes you catch one of the others on a good day, you can get great value!!

        Stewart 01/08/20 4:13 PM Reply


    • TAKARENGO was due a big run and was punted in, but, he ran a bit free the other day, change of jockey, softer ground, run after a couple of days etc, all points to a big run today! Let’s hope it’s another GWShark….

      Stewart Mcmillan 01/08/20 1:10 PM Reply


      • Yep he was. Although having thought he’d relish the trip on flat there’s a chance he just didn’t get home either. We shall see, but worth a go at 12s to find out. He should have more muddy flat handicaps in him.

        Josh 01/08/20 1:22 PM Reply


    • I`ll take the 10/1 on you Sir Jack….

      Stewart 01/08/20 4:34 PM Reply


  • Lord GB
    some tasty work in the 4tbp ovens yesterday 🙂
    many thanks
    sid

    Sid 01/08/20 11:00 AM Reply


    • thanks Sid … yep i do most of my “Farming” on the 4tbp / bf ……… i feel most comfortable betting that way 🙂

      I just try my best ..thats all 🙂 … glad you can agree on some of them 🙂
      Have another great day 🙂
      Bestest rgds
      LGB

      GEORGE B 01/08/20 11:47 AM Reply


  • Hey GB, your illustrious namesake invented the Stewards Cup in 1839. What do the family ovens say?

    Mark Curtis 01/08/20 11:17 AM Reply


    • Yes indeed MC .. my great great great uncle george .. made racing what is today … “fair” ……… well ish !!!
      Improving the starts
      Making handicaps so more runners could viable participate
      Putting money into improvements at Epsom .. and practically rebuilt Goodwood race track and the surrounding area.
      Created the first ever horse box ( so his horses arrived fresh at say york .. instead of the usual walking from Hampshire to Yorkshire ………….. and so it goes on … unsung heroes of the Kings sport .. thats us !!! lol
      LGB over m out
      have fun out there ! 🙂

      GEORGE B 01/08/20 11:45 AM Reply


    • Mc … busy “charging out” invoicing end of month for me i am afraid today ……….. not had a look yet …. maybe have a coffee break soon and look ………

      What do you fink the winner is then ??

      Surely BRIAN THE SNAIL ……. HAS TO WIN TODAY 🙂

      LATERZ MON BETTING BUDDY 😉

      GEORGE B 01/08/20 11:51 AM Reply


      • My speculative two against the field EW are Aljaady and Atalanta’s Boy. Happy invoicing!

        Mark Curtis 01/08/20 11:55 AM Reply


        • George Bowen looks dangerous at that weight.

          warren Bottomley 01/08/20 12:05 PM Reply


          • 🙂

            GEORGE B 01/08/20 12:18 PM Reply


        • Thanks & now noted .. maestro MC .. bon chance apres midi mon frite !!
          at least this afternoon i will be definitely making money .. lol 🙂
          lgb

          GEORGE B 01/08/20 12:20 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners:

    14.05. Nmkt. Mahale
    16.30. Ham. Ocean Star
    16.40. Gdwd. Glowing For Gold
    17.00. Ham. Inhaler/Mutazawwed
    19.00. Chep. Enduring/Host/Weymouth Bay

    No selections.

    August already and the Nursery season underway …not a betting medium for me…bit like 3 yo hdcps in terms of making accurate predictions. Top weight in hdcps, especially in nursery hdcps…(anyone with stats to back up the anecdotal hearsay!?) is said to be the way in to such races, being the best horse etc., but too problematical and in terms of prices not value to me, maybe for others that are more savvy than me…..anyway gd lck with whatever you are backing today.

    silver 01/08/20 11:21 AM Reply


  • I’ve spotted a fair few running at Chepstow and Hamilton today and all are local trainers with one (Ray Craggs) localish. It could be a day of winners for these guys with all eyes on GG and Newmarket? Runners below.
    4.20 Chepstow Norab, Arty Campbell and Borak all Bernard Llewellyn
    4.50 Chepstow Earthly and Kaisan trainer as above
    7.00 Chepstow Boot Scootin Baby David Evans
    8.00 Chepstow Outer Space John Flint and Crimson Princess Nikki Evans
    7.45 Hamilton Amourie Ray Craggs. He also sports a £110 profit to a level £1 stake when having one runner at a flat meeting
    8.45 Hamilton Gweedore And Modakhar both Katy Scott

    Alex Gorrie’s Ghost 01/08/20 11:43 AM Reply


    • Yep I can see that logic, bets of luck with them all.

      Josh 01/08/20 12:11 PM Reply


      • Few placed and the only winner was one I forget about Flint’s horse..

        Alex Gorrie’s Ghost 02/08/20 9:11 AM Reply


  • As i say the Bakery is not open today 🙁 .. but here is a list of big priced runners who i might have on the 4/5/6 tbp only market on betfair

    1.50 GOO MUSIC SOCIETY / ONE HART
    2.15 KIL WAVYLAKE / IMPERIAL ALLURE
    2.35 GAL HALITE
    3.10 GAL PATRIANT SAINT
    3.15 NEW WEST END GIRL
    3.25 KIL YEATS ENCORE (SMALL WIN) / ACRUX CASS
    3.35 GOO BRIAN THE SNAIL / GEORGE BOWEN / SILENT ECHO / CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD / TINTO
    STONE DESTINY / WEDDING DATE / SUMMERGHAND ……….. Just a few their then ..lol .. i hope
    they are paying down to 8 places today ..lol
    4.00 KIL WHIRLING DERVISH
    4.40 GOO GLOWING FOR GOLD / IL BANDITO / RAGING RASCAL
    4.45 GAL CATHERINE CHROI / TIGER MYLK / WHITE PEPPER

    Not for human betting purposes … just some biggies i picked out from a gigantic list
    Not tips just Tip Bits to laugh at 🙂 !!
    Laterz
    unfortunately now …………… back to my proper job 🙂
    LGB

    GEORGE B 01/08/20 12:17 PM Reply


    • Well you found the first and third Lord G!

      Mark Curtis 01/08/20 3:49 PM Reply


    • Hi George
      Your stats keep rolling on, decided today to have a play at £2 win only stakes at BFSP so 2 winners from 23 bets, 35.99 and 30.51 returned + £84.70 clear profit, 2% betfair commission, keep them coming.
      For any new people looking at George it is not only 2 months bets recorded some time back Josh had a tipping table which George won 2/3 times if my memory serves me well, and then a limit on the number of bets per month was introduced to stop George winning NEVER Ha Ha.
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 01/08/20 5:12 PM Reply


      • ha ha ………..You are my lucky mascot colin 😉 … and here was me trying to do my day job as well 🙂
        my motto … chuck everything in the oven … and see what happens 😉
        b.rgds
        lgb .. now heading downstairs to see if my young lamps team can beat those north london lads !!

        GEORGE B 01/08/20 5:20 PM Reply


  • If you look at the results of the two sprints, the hold up horses have dominated

    Front end speed has pretty much collapsed, don’t think draw is so important with Kimifive 2nd from 1
    and Summerghand winning from 17

    Meraas and Rewaayat both front runner, plus the really well treated Tommy G, all failed to get home.

    My conclusion: watering killed the speed, they were 1.36 and 1.16 s slow on supposedly quick ground in top class 2 company.

    Yesterday the 2yo Nursery was won in a quicker time than both these races over the same C&D and the first three home were in the front the whole way.

    Bloody watering

    Richard 01/08/20 4:40 PM Reply


    • Hmm, I don’t think watering is affecting any front runners holding on today. Theyve clearly gone a pace in both and has helped hold up horses. Best not to look for excuses in this game or dwell on things. My first reaction is simply I got it wrong and wasn’t as close enough to winners as I could have been. That’s the game. I think they had to put some water down given weather etc. Anyway. We move on.

      Josh 01/08/20 5:17 PM Reply


      • Frankly a RIDICULOUS comment

        You cannot possibly know they’ve gone too quick. It’s not about excuses it’s called ANALYSIS which is what I did after the results were in

        BOTH races were slower than the 6 furlong nursery won on Friday, before the 8mm of watering, and the front three were the front three the whole way

        On Saturday after watering, superior animals in a larger field run slower. If they have gone ‘too hard’ how have they ended up slower than the 2yos? Especially considering Summerghand is rated 108 – he’s verging on Group class

        Looking at the results the winners and runners up in both races were deep hold up horses and several of those that raced prominently are out the back of the telly.

        MY conjecture going forward is that the front runners were facing a bias against front end speed. The future form MAY reflect this and I’ll be looking to see whether the theory holds water.

        Further, I say that Meraas, Rewaayat and possibly one or two others on the front end should be upgraded. I expect them to improve plenty on this form in the near future.

        EXCUSES? 40 years I’ve been doing this kind of punting, I don’t need excuses.

        Richard 02/08/20 10:41 AM Reply


        • Well it’s not a ridiculous comment Richard and it wasn’t a criticism. It’s a valid differing of opinion. And use of captilal letters isn’t required. Makes a genial chat look like it’s turning into shouting. If it upset you that much forget I said anything. It was aimed at myself more than anything after a shite week. I never like finding reasons for why things didn’t work out/my picks were rubbish other than my own inadequacy. I simply didn’t read anything that well and everything that happened at Goodwood from my picks/races was predictable imo. Like most things are in this game. And the things we cannot control generally even out over time.

          I’ll be the first to be annoyed at over watering but in this example we won’t agree. I’m not having it that in those two sprint handicaps that if they’d hadnt watered the pace would have held up. The fact hold up horses/strong travellers won suggests to me those at the front went too hard. many of those near the front were also not good enough on the day in my view. That’s my subjective analysis and not watering 8mm wouldn’t have affected that. It was still fast ground.

          The times on Friday, inc Baatash breaking records, was due to the faster ground than normal. And we did know they were going to water 8mm, that info was available. I could be wrong but I think the wind may have been stronger on Sat also, possible slight headwind. Which would also explain a pace collapse and the difference in times.
          They were also sub standard c2s in my view.
          Josh

          Josh 02/08/20 1:30 PM Reply


  • ERRRRRRRRRRR .. CAN I JUST CLARIFY A FEW POINTS 🙂 :
    1/. I am not really a Lord ! 🙂 (although the family legend is that we decend from the 5th duke of portland and / or his Brother GEORGE ! and my cousins family have /were paid a yearly fund from 1848 – 1998 ..no smoke without fire ehhh ?? 😉 … the plot thickens )
    2/. I am not a Baker either ! (wife can vouch for that 🙂 )
    2a/. I don’t have any commercial ovens either of course … just fictious ones 😉
    3/. and most importantly i do not want to be referred to as a “tipster” and i am not here to suggest you should be following my tips in any shape or form .. couldn’t stand the pressure of it 🙂 ( not good/wise enough for that accolade i am afraid )
    4/. I am only on here to look and learn from all the other members and above all our leader Josh !! 🙂
    6/. I have no connection or sponsorship with colin leif on here 😉 … he is just a thoroughly nice chap who
    “gets” my mumblings more than most 🙂 …well him and a select few others of course and thanks btw ! 🙂

    Thanks for listening to my mumblings 🙂
    Let’s get picking the rich pickings on offer today and everyday !!

    VIVE LE RTP !!!
    Long Live King Josh ! ( again i don’t think he is a king ? … just ‘king good at the art of Horseracing !)

    Kindest regards
    LGB
    p.s. my name is not GEORGE either …lol 🙂

    GEORGE B 02/08/20 10:04 AM Reply


    • Just read this George and I’m in shock! Lord George the baking tipster is a myth. I shall however continue to refer to you as such and enjoy reading your concoctions! Keep up the good work and I shall now be sponsoring my local football team instead.
      Vive Lord George the baker!

      Leif Collins 03/08/20 7:18 AM Reply


      • ha ha ..lol .. i knew you were ” leif’s ” one of the same person ( i told you they were mc ! 😉 )

        on we go fine sir !!
        did i say that the 5th duke of portland was famed for his many guises .. lol 🙂

        LGB
        getting ready for another day !!

        GEORGE B 03/08/20 10:05 AM Reply


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