Daily Members Post: 30/07/20 (complete)

All Tipsx2 + write ups, Quals + Good/Galway pointers…

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

(90 tips/14 wins/31 places (inc wins) /+71.8 points, advised/+70.05 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.45 Good – Bright Melody – 1 point win – 12/1 (UniB) 10/1 (gen) UP, no excuse to my eyes, hard to support moving forwards. Maybe hurdles!

#2 – 1.45 Good – Lucander – 1 point win – 25/1 (betfS/PP) 22/1 (gen)

as of 08.01, that’s all for today, write ups at bottom as usual…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.45 Good – Luigi Vampa (16/1<) 12/1 UP

1.45 Good – Lucander (16/1<) 22/1 ‘DNQ’

4.55 Good – Different Face (12/1< guide) H4 9/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

2.15 Good – Qaader 7/2 UP

Jack Mitchell 

2.15 Good – Gussy Mac (any) 12/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

5.30 Muss – Ballyare (3rd run) H3 5/1

Hot-Form

6.30 Muss – Lomu (2nd run) H4 6/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Goodwood + Galway Micro Quals

(as per report HERE>>>)

Goodwood

Trainer/Jockey Combos

1.45 – Iffraaz UP

1.45 – Bright Melody H3 UP

Gosden/Stoute 

1.45 – Magical Morning UP

3.15 – Nazeef

 

Galway 

T Mullins (20/1<)

5.15 – Court Maid

Willie Mullins (any) 

5.15 – Karl Der Grosse

7.15 – Jon Snow

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Goodwood

Big Handicap Pointers

1.10 

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • Bal Mal (trainer record in race , 1/2,1p) H3 UP

1.45 

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • Zabeel Champion / Iffraaz (4/32, 10p) H1
  • Magical Morning (2/6, 4p)

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Galway 

6.45 Galway Hurdle

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • All Willie Mullins’ (2/32, 8p)
  • Tudor City (3/18, 6p)

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1.45 Goodwood

Well, better late than never i’m back to focusing in the right price range for Festival handicaps. Heading under 8s consistently is the easy/comforting thing to do but it’s a double whammy – i’m convinced that end of the market, in C2+ races at big meetings/big fields /heritage handicaps etc, simply doesn’t pay long term. It can also affect your focus, with eyes nearer the top than making cases for those at bigger prices. And I don’t like making a decision the evening before and will try to avoid that. There are so many ‘fake’ market moves, impacted by big tipsters etc and when you see lines of blue on oddschecker you can be lured in. I prefer attacking with fresh morning eyes and if that means sometimes you ‘miss’ the price, so be it. Value is in the eye of the beholder, whenever you look, with plenty of pros waiting until the final 15 mins before a race. My error on Days 1&2 was not getting into a Festival mindset – 7s< is the place to be during the week most of the time, but not in these races. If I can’t make a case for an 8s+ shot i’m best leaving the race. I’ve done this before and need to keep reminding myself where to focus. I’m not sure whether any of that would have got me closer to Just Hubert, but I was a bit transfixed on the top end and didn’t give myself much of a chance. We move on…

Bright Melody – having said all that obviously one of the top four in the market will now hack up but i’ll get onto those in a moment. 10s has just lured me in with this one. The yard are in form, Buick rides the place well as we know (2/7 in this race I think) and when teaming up with Charlie at Goodwood (all meetings), they are 16/41, 24 places, +23 (68% above market expectation). You could probably just back them blind in truth around here.

The horse… he does have the odd question, like most in here actually. It felt open enough. It’s only the 5th run of his life and it is the quickest ground he’s faced. Being out of Dubawi I thought he may appreciate it. He may not of course and is related to some French winners. He’s been gelded so they will want some sort of return. The form of his races has worked out ok (Berlin Tango, Pyledriver both franked the Kempton form at Ascot, and Beckett’s winner here yesterday was behind him in that) , esp his first two. He has ability. He was sent off 9/2 Fav at Ascot. Interesting. This race isn’t as deep as that. In any case he was a bit lit up in 1st CP, stuck wide for most of the trip including on the turn for home, and he ran like a non stayer. He ran ok at Longchamp 28 days ago in a Listed race – i’m not sure a tactical 4 runner race over there would have suited but he was staying on at the line. Buick has options from his low draw. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was just behind the pace, or mid div, and he tries to angle out up the straight. The CP (cheekpieces) return and he’s hit RPRs of 99 a couple of times, inc LTO, a joint career best. He should have more races in him and hopefully relishes conditions. He is on the drift as I type, which dents confidence somewhat but he will be here to run his race.

Lucander – how he’s 22/1 here i’ve no idea. Rather insulting I thought. If you ignore his run LTO he’d have been put in 10s/12s you’d have thought. I can’t have that run as a true reflection of his well-being. While he won on soft as a 2YO maybe he just hated it at Newmarket, marooned up the middle in what was a swamp on the day and the wrong place to be. His form on Gd/GF is decent and most of his races have worked out well, including that Haydock effort. Brunch and Canagnat behind him there, who’d both won off 83 and 87 since. Angel Power in front who was 2nd here yesterday off 90. He’s always shaped as if 10f would be ideal and i’ve no stamina concerns, although he has it to prove. Rob Hornby jumps back on, his two career wins coming when he’s done the steering. Trainer/jockey have a good record as we know – and they’re 3/9,6p in the last 14 days. Beckett’s having a decent season and I wonder part of that is down to the improvement in Rossa Ryan and Rob Hornby this season. As well as having Harry Bentley to call on. He is drawn wide but the stats suggest that isn’t an inconvenience over this CD with this many runners. He will have options. In any case while he may be further back than ideal, he should be able to switch out into the middle and stay on, traffic free. He is 22s after all, not single figures. So, we shall see. I thought that was a ridiculous price.

Of the rest…

I really didn’t like Magnetised and Al Salt at their morning odds. While they have ‘attractive’ profiles I thought they were short for what they’d achieved and I was happy to take them on, and be wrong about them. Being anti those two automatically creates value elsewhere, if i’m right about them of course.

Zabeel Champion – he won for us at a nice price LTO and I need to get out of the habit of giving some of the winnings back on previous winners. Maybe he will make 5s look big but he did have the run of the race at Newmarket and was in the right part of the track. I’m sure plenty in there didn’t run their race in conditions, but he was impressive. He does look a unit and whether he handles the undulations here, we shall see. Of the top four in the market as I type, I thought he was most interesting. I decided to leave Magical Morning – he can be keen still and steps up in trip. That could unlock plenty but he was poor LTO. Again maybe the ground was the excuse but even so, for a 7s shot- I didn’t think that was overpriced in this line up.

Starcat is being supported – I suppose the fact they threw him into the 2000G tells you plenty about how highly regarded he is. He was woeful LTO but again, maybe soft ground didn’t suit him. But he needs to bounce back, up in trip. It’s only his 4th start though and I can see why he has his supporters at 10s, but he has more to prove than many in here. None of his 3 RPRs are higher than his current mark as yet either. Morrison is only 4/54 in handicaps at the track in the last 5 years also. The market is suggesting i’ve got him wrong, so we shall see. I thought everything else had even more questions than those mentioned above but it is a 3YO only handicap, and as the cliche goes, ‘nothing would surprise me’ . Well, Note Bleu and Junkanoo would! Johnston has a 40s poke in this, you never know. He hasn’t shown much for a while but maybe the combo of trip/ground will see him to better effect.

Pace… you’d think Zabeel Champion will go forward – hopefully he doesn’t get a freebie, but not impossible. Buick could switch things up and drive his forward, that’s not impossible. Maybe Joe will help light it up also and Frankie’s can be up there, but up in trip, i’d be surprised if he scrubbed his ears off to get handy, especially as he’s been keen and that may light him up too much. So, it’s interesting. Hopefully Zabeel uses up too much gas getting out and across and falls in a hole. It does feel an open race to my eyes, one to have a couple of pokes in. We shall see if a) i’ve got that right b) i’ve picked the right 10s+ shots to go to war with.

GL as always.

I’ll get ‘Thursday Trends’ post up by lunchtime, with a look at The Steward’s Cup, maybe the consolation race also. There’s a handful of quality handicaps on Saturday from Goodwood. Thankfully followed by a quiet Sunday – decent cards/meetings on Sunday’s are good for the game I think, but they make the week very long when you’re in the blogging game. Onwards.

Josh

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. Just one bet for me on Thursday

    Gordon Stakes 2.45 Subjectivist 80% of max win bet (I got 10s)

    Also a 10% ante post for the St Leger at 33/1

    I’ve long made him a Gr 2 horse, tomorrow we find out if he’s one or not

    1. I hate to moan about a ride but that was an absolute stinker by Fanning on Subjectivist

      There was no need at all to go that fast, that early he could have just sat in front at his own gallop and kicked on from the home bend.

      They never would have seen him for dust.

      Even then, he’s traded 1.4x in the run, AND he’s taken the horse to the dreaded and DEAD far rail which is the swamp

      poor to say the least and gutted

  2. I hereby swear never to post one of Josh’s tips as a selection of mine ever again (if i post first i will then except no responsibility).

  3. Not a good day on Wednesday – my two top picks both failed but I scraped a place with The Grand Visir with 4 places. I did not see the Siskin run but after watching the replay I thought that his jockey gave him a shocker. We shall see how he goes next time?
    I dont really like much on Thursday but here goes:

    1.10 Goodwood, Electric Ladyland, 1 point each way – course and distance winner, has won at class 2 and 3, Hollie Doyle on board;
    2.45 Goodwood, English King, 3 point win – he needs to win this to be top three year old colt at middle distance;
    1.30 Southwell, Stamina Chope, 2 points win – a decent first run in the UK, trainer in form, Sam TD on board.

    Good luck Martin

    1. I think that’s harsh on Colin Keane – he was ridden the same way in Ireland wasn’t he? Given some cover behind horses, got out and put the turbos onFrom that draw, given he was never going to try and make all, i’m not sure where else he was meant to be. I thought it was a very good ride, what a game of opinion this is. He settled him, switched him out and only got stuck in 1.5 furlongs out, made his move – but couldn’t live with the older horses, Circus even held him off. I wouldn’t have any complaints there personally but I’d be intrigued to hear what you think he should have done differently.

      The best horse on the day won that, and he had a horrid passage , taken to the back and switched around. A devastating turn of speed that nothing else could live with. He’d have been passing Kameko if he’d got out at any stage up the straight, but he’d have still swept past and with a clearer run himself would have bolted up even further in my view.
      Anyway as Stewart says, best not to dwell in this game! I’ve just about stopped thinking about the 1.45 haha.

      GL today, as always
      Josh

      1. I am still in the bad race camp, too wide at times, not enough tactical nous etc. The best horse did win I would agree. Let’s give Siskin another chance though and see how he goes.

        1. Well I disagree and think we must have been watching a different race! Although I do have a soft spot for Colin having met him in a Vegas bar – very pleasant and happy to chat for a while. I could be blinkered!

          But.. he hugged the rail all the way round and only moved him out at the 3 furlong poll?? – winner covered more ground. Would you have preferred Keane to sit and suffer up the inner, hemmed in by Frankie and never getting a run like Oisin? He saved as much ground as possible while giving him every chance. He flattened in final few yards.

          Anyway, sounds like we will have to agree to disagree on that one!

          But yes, I would give him another chance. Would be great to see him and the winner in The Breeder’s Cup Mile, or whatever the big turf race is there over 8f.

      2. I’m with you Josh. I was on the Steel City and Siskin double and the latter was in the right place to win. Some performance by Mohaather to win from there and I reckon given Jim’s comments immediately post race, he did it a shade cosily. Best horse won, simple as that

      3. It is always the case with Goodwood, too many hard luck stories, the camber suits some horses and not others, Kameko backers would have been screaming at the TV, but, the jockeys all know about Goodwood, should he have squeezed through, should he have gone earlier, split second decisions and unfortunately at Goodwood, by the time you have made those decisions the race is all over, easy for us to sit here as mere mortals and criticise. It`s why i like the jumps over the flat.

  4. Morning,

    Going again at Galway

    18:15

    STYLISH MOMENT 1pt win 14/1 gen
    ASHQAR 1pt win 16/1 gen

    18:45

    ARAMAX 1pt win 10/1 gen
    MT LEINSTER 1pt win 14/1 gen

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today, had a bet on MAGIC WAND in the 15:15 at Goodwood also, Frankie for Mr O`Brien, not to be sniffed at that.

    1. I looked at the Frankie/O’Brien angle as it’s not a combo you see everyday. And if I did it correct and have read it right they are 0/8 which is not good but today could be the day. The fact that moore is on something else I don’t think we need to read much into that. Rather than him choosing he may been asked to ride a specific horse. I also don’t think Frankie has any issues getting a ride. So given their not so fruitful relationship I would still class it as a significant booking.

      1. Yep – don’t forget none of their irish riding contingent has been coming over, due to the Irish quarantine rules – were Seamie or Wayne over here Frankie wouldn’t be riding. Colin Keane has to self isolate for 14 days now, when he gets back home. Agree that I don’t think Ryan has the choice a lot of the time – he will have his say but does trust Aidan/the lads, to put him on the right one. I don’t think in G1s he’s put on horses with the future in mind though. I do think Frankie riding can be significant though in the sense they’ve gone for the best available, but I suppose why wouldn’t you. If Kameko had hit trouble at Newmarket as he did yesterday, Frankie would have ridden a 2000G winner for them.
        Josh

  5. 6.30 Musselburgh – Sound of Iona 11/2
    Went into my tracker 2 runs back. Beaten by Gowanbuster.
    NTO won at Ayr.
    Back to Musselburgh to take on Gowanbuster again who’s the fav in the race.
    Why can it beat the fav?
    Two runs back Gowanbuster was drawn 11/11 and SoI was drawn 1/11. To finish 2nd from 1/11 was good.
    Its run NTo proved the 2nd place was no fluke.
    SoI got 3lbs first time they met, today it gets 7lbs.
    First time round there was 9 stalls between them, today there are 2 stalls.
    It’s only the 9th run of SoI today compared to the 24th of the fav.
    Of the others I’m only concerned with Lomu who’ll have a saver despite its welter burden.

  6. Having got yesterday’s Sussex stakes analysis spectacularly wrong, I’m retreating to more familiar territory and opting to solve the opening sprint handicap at Goodwood. I think Glamorous Anna is a seriously fast filly who will be suited by the track. She broke our hearts when nosing out our own Free Love at Windsor despite hanging and not helping her jockey very much. Think headgear will help in time. Reckon she could mKe all today.

    1. GL Tony, can see why you’re interested at the prices. Not impossible she grabs this nearside rail either. Only out and out front runner in the race, we shall see if she can hold on.

    2. Well that went to plan Tony, well done. A solid 12.00 BFSP. That was a fun watch in final furlong! Nice work and thanks for posting 🙂

      1. Think she may be good enough to grab black type at fillies & mares level. Our little superstar, Free Love, was only raised two for a nose defeat behind GL at Windsor and may look well treated off 82 in York’s new F&M 0-100 sprint on International Stakes day. Could be our cup final!

  7. yesterday the c3+ list had 5 winners and 2 second places.
    my picks nuff said……….
    on to today at goodwood.
    13:10 show me show me / flippa the strippa
    13:45 bright melody / al salt / junkanoo
    14:15 yazaman / supremacy
    14:45 english king / kalifa sat
    15:15 magic wand / one voice
    15:45 william bligh / running back / mark of the man
    16:20 miss chess / great vibes / teodolina
    16:55 winter power / golden bear / different face
    my picks
    JUNKANOO E/W speculative one this but 2 solid performances behind horses that have done well recently. may or may not be in the same class as some of these and i do like bright melody and was rather pleased josh tipped it you cant ignor appleby/buick strike rate. But at 40/1 i think he may better than the price suggests.
    ill take a place behind bright melody on this.
    ONE VOICE. hard to judge irish form sometimes but she has been running in some good races and got into a bit of trouble last time out. if you watch the race she finished with a very good turn of pace much better than the 5th place suggests. harrington is also a shrewd operator, 14/1 worth a go.

    me doing write ups who would of thought it.
    good luck everyone

    (single c3+ at musselburgh will follow later)

      1. cheers josh good start to the day.
        i watched its last 2 races and it just looked better than the price suggested to me. a quick flick through the horses that beat it on both occasions they looked solid races. nothing complicated.

        1. yep well done, can’t say I was near him! Thought step up in class/still a maiden – valid concerns, but it’s a game of price, 50s allowed you to overlook plenty there! Course form, that Sandown form from September is very good – 9L behind Palace Pier, staying on tender handling. Did feel open, I didn’t think that open! But does show you, trust in your eyes/that’s where video analysis can help. And in these 3YO only handicaps, they can step forward. He’s appreciated that solid pace there also.
          That should give you spring in your step anyway!
          Josh

          1. spring in the step oh yes 50/1 bogs dont come around often.
            almost didnt even mention him. it was a toss up between golden bear in the last. but the 40/1 i took didnt seem a negative to me. as you know i turn prices off comments off when im watching video replays as to not plant any preconceived thoughts. only when i ve made them do i look things like prices.

            what i will say that you your blog and the people that make the community which ive been apart of on and off for a couple of years are the sole reasons why i picked a 50/1 winner today. the information, knowledge and selfless sharing we have here is GOLD.
            RTP has given me the confidence to nail my flag to the mast on occasions and not worry about negative recourse which you everywhere in this game.
            long live the RTP family 🙂

    1. BRILLIANT WARREN ! 🙂 MUCH APPRECIATED 🙂
      SPECULATE TO ACCUMULATE ..TREMENDOUSABLE !! 🙂
      LGB 🙂

      1. cheers george 🙂
        thought one voice was gonna get up in the 3:15 i’ll tale 20/1 bog eachway though.
        one of the better days 🙂

        1. yep brilliant again young man 😉 ………….had the f/c thanks to you .. and the 3yo stat in this race 😉
          keep upda good work my man ! 🙂 .. i have followed you from the beginning .. i know a winning mentality when i see one 😉 vive la RTP ! and all it’s ship mates 🙂
          LGB ..now basking in the sun 🙂

  8. suppose i might as well stick my twopenneth in about the Galway 6-45.
    Iv’e had a pretty big (for me) bet on Hunters Call , ticks all my boxes and looka value at 10-1 bog 6 places
    iv’e also had a smaller bet on Petit Mouchoir now 7lb below lwm and has a 7lb claimer on board in Mr H Morgan who’s record isn’t that bad over hurdles with 17w 33p from 186 , looks the better of the 2 De Bromhead’s, 20-1 bog 6 places

    1. i managed 9/1 but with all the extra places up for grabs looks like a good value punt to me 🙂

  9. Ascot list runners:
    14.15. Gdwd. Gussy Mac/Talbot
    15.45. Gdwd. Balavad/Wiilliam Bligh/Samara Bay
    16.455. Gdwd. Golden Bear/Winter Power.

    No selections today. Nice pick Warren!!! GB with Chamade yesterday…great stuff..Gd lck if playing today.

  10. c3+ musselburgh
    6:30 gowanbuster / militia / fashion advice
    my pick.
    FASHION ADVICE E/W
    off course for a year but her last race in the soft looked a good performance in my eyes. top of the market gowanbuster and sound of iona are gonna be there. i dont think militia will be far. but if she is fit and that is an if 9/1 for fashion advice looks generous to me on her last performance

  11. at last thank you MC …… your name has finally won for me !! 🙂 … lol it is indeed the mark of a man ..lol 🙂

  12. Well done with Junkanoo Warren,i know one of the owners too.So what was my bet at Goodwood today……… Sold SPs at 47!!!!!

  13. Well done Warren. Noted Junkanoo but didn’t back it. Had Bet365 on screen just before the off. Was 66/1 at that point.
    Pat

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