Daily Members Post: 29/07/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(89 tips/14 wins/31 places (inc wins) /+72.8 points, advised/+71.05 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.45 Good – Summer Moon1.5 points win – 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (SB/WH/BV) UP -1.5

#2 – 1.45 Good – Rochester House 1.5 points win – 10/1 (BV) 9/1 (bet365) 17/2 (888/Betf) 2nd -1.5, Just Hubert winning 28 BFSP is ultimate pain (see write up. I was due one of those. Dam)

#3 – 1.10 Good – Ghaziyah1.5 points win – 5/1 (gen) UP -1.5

#4 – 2.15 Good – Glenties1.5 points win – 6/1 (bet365/WH/Betf) UP 7/2, -1.5

That’s all for today… #1/2 as of 5pm Tuesday, #3/4 as of 08.03 Wed,  all write ups at bottom of post, also some brief thoughts on The Plate, which i’m happy to sit out, tipping wise, this year, but one I like if it rains…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.10 Good – Ghaziyah (10/1< guide) 5/1 UP

1.10 Good – Nkosikazi (10/1< guide) H1 10/1 UP

1.45 Good – Cliffs Of Dooneen (16/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

2.15 Good – A Star Above (12/1< guide) 7/1 2nd

2.15 Good – Sarvan (8/1<) 9/1 UP

4.20 Good – Verboten (any) 10/1

8.00 Thirsk – Miracle Eagle (9/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding

1.10 Good – Lake Lucerne 7/1 UP

1.45 Good – Seinesational (14/1<) 12/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

4.20 Good – Society Lion (1st run/sectionals) H4 4/1

6.00 Thirsk- Bonds Boy (2nd run) H4

Losing Tips

1.45 Good – Just Hubert (2nd run) 16/1 WON 16/1 > 25/1 SP, 28/1 BFSP 

3.15 Good – Kamenko (1st run) 11/2

4.20 Good – Agrigato (1st run) H1 7/1

 

 

5.Other/Updates

Goodwood + Galway Micro Quals

(as per report HERE>>>)

Goodwood

Trainer/Jockey Combos

1.45 – Summer Moon UP / Rochester House 2nd

2.15 – Kings Caper UP

3.45 – Miss Jingles (9/2<)

4.20 – Asdaa

Gosden/Stoute

1.10 Good – Lake Lucerne UP

 

Galway 

T Mullins (20/1<)

5.15 – Tara Dylan

Willie Mullins (any) 

4.45 – Getaway Gorgeous

5.45 – Kaatskill Nap

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Goodwood

Big Handicap Pointers

1.45 

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • Summer Moon / Rochester House (trainer race record 12 years – 2/9,4p)
  • The Grand Visir/ Blue Laureate (3/13, 4p)

2.15 

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • Glenties H4 / Kings Caper (5/38, 8p)
  • A Star Above (1/3,1p)
  • Cozone (1/9, 4p)
  • Damage Control (1/9,1p)

4.20 

Trainers (to have won race last 8 years/with runners)

  • Magical Wish / Buridan (2/5,3p)

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Galway

6.45 – The Galway Plate

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • All of Gordon Elliot’s (3/23, 5p)
  • All of Willie Mullins’ (1/35, 11p)
  • Spyglass Hill / Sub Lieutenant (2/24, 3p)
  • Cap York  (1/14,4p)

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Tips Write Ups

Day 1 was a bit naff.  The curse of the email strikes again 🙁  That’s how it goes. Danny T had his one too far back and I wasn’t near enough to the winner at 8s, to make it an annoying result. Beckett’s didn’t bother coming out of the stalls and Recon Mission fell out, game over. He will win a stiffer 5f in softer before this season is out, I hope. Scott’s wasn’t great, they didn’t look to go quick visually but those at/near the front fell into a hole suggesting they did. Or that battle LTO has taken plenty out of her. And to rub salt into the minor wound I got the Haggas Trainer Profile horse wrong at 4s, but that’s the game. I won’t be dwelling on that day for any longer…

 

1.10 – Ghaziyah 

I’ve no doubt in my mind she’s much better than her mark of 90 here and could be the best handicapped filly in the race. Haggas is in flying form and they’ve kept this daughter of Galileo in training in order to get black type. Connections think she’s a stakes horse in the making (as per Mark Howard’s ‘Ahead On The Flat’ which is sat on my desk) and given she won after 250 days off last season and that she runs here, at a target meeting for the yard, i’m assuming she’s fit. Haggas could have run her in any number of smaller races if she needed to blow the cobwebs away. But, the market may guide, if she drifts out to 6s/7s, I may have got that educated guessing wrong.

She ‘could be anything’ this season and based on her last start is chucked in. She finished ahead of her stablemate and rival in this, Nkosikazi, who’s won twice this season and comes into this off 102. That race has thrown up a few winners and she did so well there. She was drawn wide and PJ decided to tuck her in, rather than rush up and get a prominent position. She was a bit keen/immature still and the race was run at a crawl. She was in the wrong place given how the race panned out but flew from the back and in another 200 yards would have won. It was a move, and an RPR of 96, which suggests a mark 0f 90 is workable. As does the form/mark of Nkosikazi. The one niggle is whether she’ll be too fresh on this return, but on paper there’s enough pace to track and stall 3 gives James options. Hopefully he can angle out and power home. I thought if she settled she was the one to beat here and as such I couldn’t resist 5s.

Be More is interesting but the Balding yard have been hit and miss in the last 14 days, 4/56, 20p – maybe just unlucky as the place % is in line with the season to date. In any case, while she could win again, I thought the selection may have more in hand.

Maybe taking on the 3 year olds will prove foolish but i wanted to do so with Waliyak, who looked short. She still hasn’t learnt to settle and doesn’t have a big field cavalry charge here in which to sit off. Good ground is also an unknown and she has to prove she stays. She shapes as if she will but it’s still an question – you don’t want stamina / ground questions for an 11/8 shot for me. If she wins, so be it. The yard are in form but I think mine may have a bit too much nous, if here to run her race, and indeed if she runs it!

In theory Nkosikazi should bump into something better handicapped today, with her stablemate leading the charge on the front, hopefully.

The first of four 1.5 point win bets. Maybe I should have reined back those extra 1/2s (2 points in total today) but I had a good feeling and didn’t want to miss out if/when one or two of them bolt up! Ever optimistic. The selection will be winning races on her next few starts.

 

1.45 Good – Summer Moon / Rochester House

 I thought the Johnston team may have all the cards in this race – I’m sure Fanning will be prominent as he was at Ascot and I doubt SDS will be too far behind him. My quiet confidence comes from the potential pace set up and the nature of the track – that ability to save plenty on the way round, before launching for home. Much like what SDS did on Maydanny. Johnston is 2/9 4p in the race as above and both these hit my TJC combo stats for the meeting.

Summer Moon – well he stays, I’ve no doubt about that. It was some effort at Ascot on his seasonal return and this track is better suited to his running style. I’ll ignore LTO, pitched into a Group 3, on the back of a hard race, over a trip too short. They will have freshened him up and he’s still unexposed over these sorts of trips. I thought he should be fav in this, given the above. That 3rd in the Cesarewitch is arguably the best piece of handicapping form in this and there should be more to come this season. The track/pace set up/fitness are why I think he should hold off Coeur De Lion, who will come from further back, will need luck, and doesn’t have that stiff climb to the line to slow up those in front.

Rochester House – his Ascot run was quite incredible really. He got in a muck sweat beforehand and he was drawn wide. They dropped him in, in a race that was evenly run and he had to wait an age to get rolling. He had to switch around the whole field and did well to make up so much ground on the the climb for the line. It was a move/effort which suggested 92 is workable and his last three RPRs would suggest as much (95/96/96). I thought he was outpaced LTO but wasn’t exactly knocked about once his chance had gone. He should appreciate this step back up in trip.  He should have a more prominent position here along with his stable mate and hopefully they have a chat on the way round, slow it all up and then wind up the tempo, stealing a few lengths in the process. They won’t be stopping. Gay Kellaway’s may be up there but I thought the rest will be more than happy to track/slot in. Of course with this standing start you need some luck but they’ve enough time to get a position and I don’t think they’ll be a burn up early. He looked overpriced. Always a chance 10 days on they run flat, but one I’ll take with this yard/his price. He looks hardy and is by Galileo. Tough.

Neither has an excuse here, everything points to a monster run from the pair of them to my eyes, hence the 1.5 points, and unlike Tinandali, they shouldn’t be held up too far back. Misplaced confidence there on a horse I knew wouldn’t be prominent. Both selections have ‘more to come’ profiles and I’ll be disappointed if I’m not on the edge of my seat entering the final furlong. They do run here for the first time but given connections, and the prices, I won’t let that put me off.

Whether anything flies at them late, such as True Destiny, we shall see. I thought the pace set up/possibly dawdle, may not suit him, in the context that he’s 5/1. He will be staying on though as will Alan King’s.

Just Hubert – I won’t go over the cliff with him and if he wins you will hear my anguish from wherever you are, having been tipped the last twice. As yet he doesn’t look like he’s trained on and this may be hot enough again for him. Maybe this extreme trip will unlock something but he’s been woeful since that solid Haydock return, where he wasn’t that far behind Rochester House.

2.15 – Glenties

MJ has won 4 of the last 8 renewals of this. Fingers crossed he can add another. (and hopefully not with King’s Caper- surely not?) 6s looked generous for our LTO winner and having watched that Windsor run back again and looked at the sectionals, I couldn’t resist wading in again, for one last hurrah. I’ve still no idea how he won that. They ran an even pace up front (the sectionals tell you that, Moore able to go his own pace in the latter half of the race, and have the rail) and he came from the back, lighting up the after-burners down the centre of the track, hitting the line so hard, and easily. I think that’s the best LTO performance in this race. It turns out they held him up (unusual for an MJ horse) because of his draw, and AA didn’t want to rush him up – he’d have faced being caught wide as they crossed over to the inner rail, so had to sit and suffer. I didn’t think about that scenario over that CD, from that draw. Noted.  It turned out well in the end as i’d expected him to be more prominent.  They now know he stays and he can be put anywhere in his races. Draw 1 can be tricky over this distance here and I may need some luck – i’d be surprised if Buick is ultra aggressive and he will want to sit behind something, maybe Joe will bomb forward. Mambo Knights may be up thee anyway. But, it could only be evenly run – and his ability to quicken should be a plus, and he’s a 4 furlong straight in which to get him out and get him rolling. Buick rides this track better than most. Well he rides most tracks better than most in fairness. All class. He’s a good record on MJs in the last year also, 5/26, 9p – 3/9, 5p in C2 handicaps. I doubt Joe had the choice in truth, given his last three riders have been Jim, AA and now Buick. He’s got course form (a flat run 7 days after his Haydock return) and that Newmarket effort is decent also, having not handled the dip/outpaced. The 2nd there, Nugget, has since won off 87 for Hannon. His RPR LTO was a career best, 91, and he looks ultra progressive now. Fingers crossed.

I wanted to take on the two above him. Win OClock is progressive but still pulls for his head, they ride him cold because of that I think, and i’m not sure what he beat LTO. I’m always a bit dismissive of Leicester form and maybe I shouldn’t be. In any case he shouldn’t be shorter than Glenties in this. I can’t have that.

Carlos Felix – he was visually impressive LTO. The selections sectionals – 3 furlongs out to 2 furlongs out were 5L or so quicker, but he did have faster ground and maybe was motoring more so by that point in the race. Anyway, he was impressive although I don’t think he beat much. And this is a very different track. He looked a big unit so we shall see how he handles it. He’s also drawn wide and he could get caught wide, or will have to sit and suffer further back. He’s also been whacked 10lb. Morris doesn’t ride the track that well either, 4/100, 22p in the last 5 eyars. But, maybe that’s the nature of the beast – Buick is 22/95, 46p +19 in the same period. Although he gets on better horses but it’s still 68% below market expectations for Luke. When looking to take on 4s shots, all points mentioned above will influence me. He could just be very smart and I won’t fall off my seat if he wins, but I’m happy to take both the market leaders on.

I think the selections is just a better horse than the others, on what they’ve shown to date. But it is a 3YO only handicap of course. A Star Above may step forward and so may Sarvan, but they need to. Both are on the page above somewhere, so always annoying. Anyway, more than happy to wade in with Glenties at 6s. Hopefully one of the others has gone in by now so I can enjoy the race fully! It could be a fun 70 minutes or so, or not. Fingers crossed.

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I will sit and enjoy the Sussex Stakes, no doubt the race of the season to date. Kameko and Circus Maximus look overpriced to me at 11/2/6s or so, but a race i’ll just watch. Well, I will have a nibble on Kameko to try and get back my Derby wager. I can hear the pro punters tutting. I couldn’t be bullish about anything in this though. We will find out how good the 3YO form really is here and we could see something special from one of them, but who? Any one of five could win this and its a race to savour.

The Galway Plate…

Not a race I wanted to wade into this year. My head has very much been focused on the flat and i’d be betting for the sake of it. However… the weather… well the BBC forecast says it’s going to pour down… IF this turns soft the Spyglass Hill should run a cracker – he would be my top pick at the prices, IF this ground goes testing come the race. I think he’d get taken off his feet on good, which makes being bullish at this time tricky. He’s got more handicap chases in him, maybe this one. I thought he could be one for the Thyestes this season, but it looks like this is the plan for his top team. I wouldn’t put you off an interest nibble.

Galvin should be going very close. He is the one to beat, well found in the market. I can’t say 9/2 is overpriced in a race like this, around here. That Cheltenham form looks so solid though and Gordon has got a run in to him, a decent prep.  He can be scrappy at the odd jump which will give those opposing him some hope, but with a clear round/luck in running, the rest could be in trouble.

I didn’t like much else but I say that having had a cursory glance. I could go over a cliff with Us And Them, but I think there are stronger stayers in here and he’s no chance if the rain lashes down. If it’s good ground, Peregine Run should be in the top 4/5 and if the younger brigade falter, you never know. In the form of his life, not that he’s ever out of form. What a horse. Easy Game is interesting but just a shade too inexperienced for me, for a test like this. The sort that you’d be more confident about if say that man Ruby Walsh was in the plate. I think Townend would have had the choice, whether that’s significant, who knows. Ruby often picked wrong in the handicaps. Three Musketeers could outrun his odds also, wouldn’t be shocked if he was in the mix.

I think the fav and Spyglass are the interesting ones, the latter if the heavens open. Both have a nice weight. But I haven’t been through every horse and am going on mental recall for many.

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Have a great day, GL with any punts, and I’ll get Thursday’s stats quals /pointers posted by 12.

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • One bet Wednesday

    MAX ew stakes ROCHESTER HOUSE

    Screaming out for this trip, should have won the Ascot Stakes, was dropped in last from stall 20 and nearly passed the lot

    hoping SDS sits in the front, winds it up and kicks on

    Richard 28/07/20 7:00 PM Reply


    • Did everything right, got nailed last half furlong

      Richard 29/07/20 1:55 PM Reply


      • painful for us win only backers, esp given who nailed him as per notes above. I’ll be over it by tomorrow. Yea no excuse for Rochester, maybe hasn’t seen it out as well as closers and they have crawled, no excuse. We move on.

        Josh 29/07/20 2:37 PM Reply


        • Extremely painful for us variable stake ew punters too I can assure

          it’s rare I go MAX ew, in fact I actually went 130% of max ew on the grounds he could not be out of the frame

          Talking about a bet that more than doubles the entire betting bank if it wins…

          So OUCH OUCH OUCH

          Actually feel physically sick

          Richard 29/07/20 3:06 PM Reply


  • One place and two losers on Tuesday but I like Wednesdays picks better.

    1.45, The Grand Visir – he does have top weight but is a class horse. He has won in this class and at this distance. 1 point each way.
    2.15, Carlos Felix – he won very well LTO and looks to be unexposed and improving fast. 3 points win.

    3.15, Siskin – a true class horse who must be followed until beaten. 5 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 28/07/20 8:31 PM Reply


  • Galway Plate 18.45 I’ve backed the fav and also the top weight Jett at a value 28/1 e/w GL

    James Barker 28/07/20 9:59 PM Reply


  • Sorry guys but iv gotta go with Seinsational in the 1.45 tomorrow. I think he was unlucky to be beat last year and only by a better Hcp’d horse I think.
    But this year I don’t think there is that. Back up to this trip and if goes ok getting a handy enough position I reckon he wins

    Ryan Mercer 29/07/20 12:21 AM Reply


  • yesterdays list 4 winners / 4 2nd place / 2 3rd place. there was even a tricast in the 2:15 not that i would of actually done one. buts its nice to get all 3 in the frame.
    my pick. mmmmmm less said the better
    todays c3+ video replay list.
    goodwood
    13:10 waliyak / lake lucerne
    13:45 the grand visir / coeur de lion / oleg
    14:15 sarvan / mambo nights / carlos felix
    14:45 army of india / sardinia sunset / steel bull
    15:15 siskin / mohaather
    15:45 sprite / miss jingles
    16:20 magical wish / arigato / verboten / society lion
    thirsk
    18:00 admirality / lorton / bonds boy
    18:30 silver dust / fennaan / top rank
    my pick.
    goodwood carlos felix / sprite

    good luck everyone.

    warren bottomley 29/07/20 1:08 AM Reply


  • I love Mohaather but don’t think he would have won a classic at three. He was entitled to do what he did at Ascot and I’ll pass him over in favour of Kameko whose English Guineas form reads stronger than Siskin’s Irish equivalent. Way too big a price.

    Tony Linnett 29/07/20 8:14 AM Reply


    • GL Tony, yep can see the case for him at the prices. Along with Circus I thought they looked big, on a cursory glance, but a race to savour, hopefully lives up to the billing/what it threatens to on paper.
      Josh

      Josh 29/07/20 10:05 AM Reply


  • Dinons could be interesting for pocket change in the Plate, currently 50.0 on the exchange. Doesn’t look much pace in the race and in 1st time cp could just bowl along in front.

    Mike S 29/07/20 8:25 AM Reply


    • Gl Mike, good logic, I can see Cooper being aggressive on him.
      A tricky evening ahead there given the forecast, they could get plenty of rain, they could not. Ground could be good, could be soft – tricky, but plenty of time to monitor. He will want it decent I think, like a few in here. Looks a cracker and i’ll watch with interest. Best of luck. Josh

      Josh 29/07/20 10:07 AM Reply


  • the G spot.
    ew L15
    Goodwood
    1-10. Ghaziyar
    1-45. Grand Visir
    2-15. Glenties
    Bangor
    1-00. Global Tour

    martin whittle 29/07/20 9:54 AM Reply


    • Oh did you have to Martin 🙁 haha – i’m not sure we’ve ever found a winner when agreeing on a race! We both curse each other good and proper. Not that there is any logic in such a statement. The human mind. But, there is a first time for everything. GL!

      Josh 29/07/20 10:00 AM Reply


      • I think it’s you jinxing me Josh Global Tour won nicely 🙂

        martin whittle 29/07/20 1:31 PM Reply


  • Apologies for no write ups yesterday, the day sort of went from underneath me, bit like today. I`ll try to be quick and not give as many people heart attacks today.Winning by a cigarette paper is not my idea of fun either.

    18:15 Galway

    HARVEST BOW 1pt win 16/1 gen
    SUMMER HILL 1pt win 12/1 gen

    18:45 Galway

    PEREGRINE RUN 1pt win 14/1 gen
    EASY GAME 1pt win 10/1 gen

    19:15 Galway

    AVENIR D`UNE VIE 1pt win 12/1 gen
    PEACOCKS SECRET 1pt win 16/1 gen

    As usual hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    Stewart 29/07/20 10:06 AM Reply


    • I don’t think I’ll have time for a write up on all, but, think Galvin is beatable in the Plate, too many people tipping it for starters…haha, no, in all seriousness like Josh said he could hack up, but, 4/1 in a race like this is madness, might even lay him I think the price is that bad. Peregrine has been primed for this and out of all the Mullins runners I fancied Easy game, (watch Live love laugh hack up now ).

      Stewart Mcmillan 29/07/20 1:48 PM Reply


  • I’m going to take a flyer on Winter Escape in the Plate @ 33s ew 6 places.
    His Novice chase form was v good he found G1 too after. Majority of recent runs were on soft with best form with Gd.
    It should ride g/s at worst today (hopefully) provided the rain isn’t worse than expected.
    Course form, TT, better grd and feather weight today. If he could recapture that nov form he could go close, big if but price allows.

    Joe H 29/07/20 10:44 AM Reply


  • JUST SOME FINE LOOKING FANCIES THROUGH THE CURRENTLY RED OVEN DOORS TODAY :
    ****************************************************************************************************
    1.00 B ILLUMINATED BEAUTY E/W = TRAINER/MONTH/CONDITIONS OF RACE
    1.10 G CHAMADE E/W = TRAINER AT THIS COURSE ! 😉
    1.30 B ANIMORE = TRAINER IN FORM /MONTH/CONDITIONS OF RACE
    1.45 G ROCHESTER HOUSE = TRAINER/JOCKEY IN FORM / MONTH / CONDITIONS OF RACE
    2.15 G DAMAGE CONTROL = INTERESTING FIRST CHOICE FOR A FORAY INTO TURF HANDICAPPING ?
    2.45 G CHIEF LITTLE HAWK = JUST A PERSONAL FAVOURITE OF THE HEAD BAKER 😉 HEART OF A LION
    4.20 G MOTTRIB = UP IN CLASS BUT HAS HAD EXCUSE LAST TWO RUNS 😉
    5.00 T MANSHOOD = JOCKEY IN FORM AND RELIABLE HORSE IN THIS TYPE OF RACE ME FINKS 😉
    6.15 GAL CRIQ ROCK = EX ALAN KING HORSE IN MY HORSES TO FOLLOW .. LOOKS UNDER RADAR HERE
    *************************************************************************************************************
    KEEP HAVING FUN FOLKS ! 🙂

    And a quick further thanks to josh and this site … who got me out of a few betting ” predickaments 😉 ” over the last few weeks i can tell you 🙂 ..ending the month of nicely now though .

    Bonjournee et tous !!
    Lord GB …. just waiting for glorious goodwood day 2 ……..bring it on !

    GEORGE B 29/07/20 12:17 PM Reply


    • Nice start George! At least my return from sunny Spain hasn’t jinxed you. Keep those ovens cooking with gas. Well done.

      Mark Burns 29/07/20 1:21 PM Reply


      • Amazing pick GB, well done!

        Mark Curtis 29/07/20 1:25 PM Reply


        • cheers long lost compadre ovda sands ! 🙂

          GEORGE B 29/07/20 1:27 PM Reply


      • CHEERS ..with a second name like yours and me a baker of winners .. we shouldn’t be doing this well 🙂 …… nothing like a burnt marshmallow mind ……… yep ovens never off !! 🙂
        enjoy the rest of the day now .. remember mr beckett at goodwood!! you make loads of dough !! 🙂
        laters
        lgb 🙂
        p.s. you’re not mark curtis in disguise are you …..lol 🙂
        keep on smiling !!

        GEORGE B 29/07/20 1:25 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners:
    14.45. Gdwd. Army of India/Internationaldream/Sardinia Sunset/Significantly/ Wings of A Dove.
    15.45. Gdwd. Furlong Factor/Pelekai.

    No selections today. Gd lck with whatever you are backing today.

    silver 29/07/20 12:22 PM Reply


  • having another look at the 1-45 i thought the multi discipline Its’afreebee was worth a little loose change ew @ 66’s if his 2 recent starts have brought him on, 5lb claimer brings him below last winning mark and has won a C1 novice hurdle. Obviously has had some injury problems in recent years but if back to full fitness is not without a shout.

    martin whittle 29/07/20 12:30 PM Reply


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