Daily Members Post: 28/07/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(81 tips/14 wins/30 places (inc wins) /+83.3 points, advised/+81.55 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.45 Good – Tinandali 1.5 points win – 8.4 (betfair exchange) 7/1 (gen/bookies) UP, 5th (running on from too far back, not that it mattered), -1.5

#2 – 1.45 Good – Babbos Boy – 1 point win – 42.00 (betfair exchange) Refused to race, the bugger … -1

#3 – 3.45 Good – Recon Mission – 1 point win – 6/1 (bet365/betfS/PP) 11/2 (gen) UP 10/3, lost at the start, ducked as stalls opened, although even with that he couldn’t go pace. Line through that one. -1

#4 – 4.55 Good – Au Clair De Lune – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365) 5/1 (gen) UP -1

 

That’s all for today, x4 tips, 4.5 point outlay… #4 as of 8am, #1-2-3 as of 16.53 on Monday, declared to prices as of 6pm. Write ups/video at the bottom of post as usual…

 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.10 Good – Tomorrow’s Dream (10/1< guide) H3 4/1 WON 4/1 > 11/2 SP

1.45 Good – Babbos Boy (16/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’ refused to race, UP

3.45 Good – Count D’Orsay (9/1<) 9/1 UP

4.55 Good – Au Clair De Lune (8/1<) 5/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding

8.15 Gal – Turnpike Trip (14/1<) H1 5/2

 

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

4.30 Yarm – Capla Huntress H2 7/4 WON 7/4 

5.00 Yarm – Motamayiz H1 13/8 2nd

6.30 Yarm – Line of Departure H3 5/4

8.00 Yarm- Sir Hamilton 11/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips 

3.00 Ayr – Euro Implosion (1st run) 20/1 3rd 22/1

3.45 Good – Count Dorsay (2nd run) 9/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Goodwood + Galway Micro Quals

(as per report HERE>>>)

Goodwood

Trainer/Jockey Combos

1.45 – Sky Defender 2nd / Maydanny WON 

2.45 – Maries Diamond UP

2.45 – Space Blues WON 

2.45 – Safe Voyage UP

Gosden/Stoute

1.45 – Yuri Gagarin UP

Galway 

T Mullins (20/1<)

6.15 – Joven

7.45 – Nam

8.15 – Future Gold

*

Goodwood

Big Handicap Pointers

1.45 

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • Derevo
  • Tinandali H3
  • Maydanny Won / Sky Defender 2nd

3.45

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • Acclaim The Nation H1
  • Recon Mission H4

*

TIPS preview

Video below of the 1.45 and 3.45 Goodwood. Write ups below for those who prefer reading to watching…

Notes, for those who don’t wish to watch the above…

1.45 –

Tinandali – he’s shaped the last twice as if he’s got something decent in him from this mark, on his 10th career run. The yard are going well and trainer/jockey won this race last year – they know what’s required for this sort of race. The John Smith’s Cup has been a good pointer for this race and he ran a cracker in that 10 days ago- if he’d got a run when he needed it, I think he’d have at least been a ‘running on’ 3rd, and would have been put in at 9/2, 5s for this race, which is what he should be I think. I talk over the replay of that run in the video above. But it was an impressive finish and with luck in running (you need that here more than most places in these big fields) he should be flying home with a late rattle again. Of course, 10 days on, he may run flat, but i’m as bullish as I can be in a race like this. He should be going very close to my eyes.

Babbos Boy – a poke and the market suggests he’s gone out of form as quickly as he came into it. Based on his emphatic win two starts back, beating numerous subsequent winners, he should be a 10s/12s shot in this line up. Of course he’s run since and was atrocious. It could be he’s best fresh and/or the effect of the blinkers wore of. Or, it could be that he hated that hock deep Haydock mud and doesn’t stay 12f in those conditions – he ran that way to me. So, we shall see. He’s lightly raced and still has handicaps in him from this mark I think. Maybe he’s one to track for his return next season but I couldn’t leave him at 40s+ here. That seemed ridiculous, in a race that does throw up big priced winners. He can be ridden patiently so will need luck but I didn’t think anything would be making all in this. But I could be wrong.

The dangers… Derevo and Cape Cavelli have attractive profiles and one of them may win. I simply thought they were too short given their wide draws. You can win from wide but of course you need so much more luck to do so – the jockeys either have to use energy to go forward, and hope they don’t get trapped wide on the turn for home, or you drop them in and ride for luck up the straight. One of them may do it but they were too short for me to find out, and as such I wanted to take them on. With usual luck in running I think the selection will finish ahead of Varian’s, based on that run LTO. They reach for the blinkers which on this occasion I don’t like.

Horses in this that had yet to win over 10f+ are 0/49, 8p in the last 12 renewals – there are stamina questions for the likes of Bell Rock and Maydanny. In the end that put me off but a big run from either wouldn’t shock me. The other of mild interest was Gosden’s, but he was woeful LTO. Maybe the ground was too soft, i’m not sure. He could be a shade too inexperienced for this but has an attractive profile. He hasn’t achieved an RPR higher than 79 as yet though, which does raise some sort of question over his mark of 92 and whether the capper has him too high. We shall see.

I will mention Roger Fell’s horse, Sucellus – he beat the Fav last season in September and his form ties in with my first pick, from that Epsom run. He has been shaping as if he’s got a 10f handicap in him again. I thought O’Meara’s would have him beat again, but that’s assuming they run their races and get the luck you can need here. He’s more interesting than some in here at 16s.

However, those two will do for me. If Beckett’s doesn’t move at all in the market we will know our fate, as it would suggest they think he’s now out of sorts etc.

*

3.45 – Recon Mission

Tony Carroll knows what’s needed to win this race, having done so 4 times since 2003. The last wins coming in 2012 and 2013. He’s due another one. I thought on the strength of his profile and his mark, that 6s was a couple of points too big in this line up. He does have pace but also stays further. I’ve a minor niggle he gets taken off his feet early but i’ll trust in Tom not to kill him on the front end. The horse can track the pace no problem. In theory that should be the plan given four of them like to get on with it – including 3 drawn to his right hand side, more up the middle of the track. The stalls are standside, high numbers up against the rail.

I didn’t really like the rest. Tom Clover’s should go close but 4s looked about right given he’s a hold up type – he will need the gaps, if he gets them he will be flying home and they may go too hard up front.

Count Dorsay would be the painful one at 11s. If David Allan was here and not at Ayr, i’d be more confident. The selections form is much better and he’s gone close in a handicap off 104 last season. I’m sure he’s an ok handicap in him but he was awful at Doncaster, seemingly with no excuse. But sprinters can throw in the odd poor run. I’m not sure a repeat of that Newmarket run will be good enough either. He needs more and maybe when it’s proper soft he will be seen to better effect. The sort where i’ll reach for beer money cover on the machine, just in case i’ve got him wrong.  But, if Carroll’s gets out, holds a position just behind the pace (and Tom doesn’t try and lead), he is the one to beat for me.

*

4.55 – Au Clair De Lune 

One for the George Scott Trainer Profile here and I thought she shouldn’t be bigger than the Tregoning filly. They weren’t that far from each other at Kempton a few runs back and until proven otherwise the selection looks the stronger stayer to me, and more mature mentally at this stage in their careers. The selection looks tough. She races prominently, finds for pressure, gets her head down and will just keep going. She’s very well bred and her run LTO was solid. She got into a battle with a Haggas colt there, only getting on top late. She wasn’t stopping though and the front 2 were well clear. Curtis is down at Goodwood which is interesting to a point and as we know, trainer/jockey do well… 5/13,7p +24 in the last year. He rode this filly to victory two starts back so knows her well. She’ll also appreciate racing back against the girls. I thought she looked interesting and could out-run her odds.

The dangers.. well Asiaaf may win and improve for the distance but i’m not sure she shaped as if she’d definitely get it LTO. Anyway it’s a question/unknown, for a 7/2 shot. She was also a tad fresh/keen at Sandown and she can’t afford to do that here, stepping up in distance. I was happy to take on. Dancing Approach – i’m not sure what she’s beat the last twice although visually impressive. I think she just handled the Haydock mud better than many LTO and does need to step up again, 8lb higher. She wasn’t overpriced at 3s and maybe i’ll regret taking them both on, but I want to. Tulip Fields is tough and maybe she’ll grind this out. Again I didn’t think 4s looked overpriced. It is a drop in class and this looks her trip. Maybe out of the other 3 who head the market, she’d be the main danger given her profile/connections. Although MJs C3 handicapping record at this Festival isn’t great, so fingers crossed i’ve landed on the right one.

*

There was nothing else on the page to lure me in. Jack Mitchell has a few shorties, also for the ‘H’ ‘strategy’ and hopefully 2 or 3 of those can go in.

I looked through the T Mullins Galway qualifiers, as I did with every horse listed above. NAM is interesting at 9/2 and maybe worth an interest nibble if you must. But I couldn’t say he’s overpriced at 9/2 in what’s a low grade/mediocre race. Soft ground is a problem and he will want it to dry out. However, he has cruised around the last twice as if he’s a winner waiting to happen so I wouldn’t be shocked if he put up a good performance. Were he 7s/8s i’d have had a dilemma, but I can’t say 9/2 looks big and that he should be shorter in this line up. We shall see if i’ve got that right come close of play. Of his two monsters, Joven prob looks more interesting but I struggled to make a case – the market can guide, but it’s a funny year with no bookmakers/crowd etc and maybe it’s a case of trusting the stats for entertainment change purposes. My head said surely not, but who knows!

*

I’ll get Wednesday’s post up later this morning for those of you who like an early look. I’m yet to decide whether to attack The Galway Plate, such is my enjoyment of the flat and leaving the summer jumping alone! Who’d have thought it.

GL with any bets

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • My handicapping has come up with both:

    tomorrow’s dream
    babbo’s boy

    so interesting to see them in the Trainer Profiles

    In the Lennox I think I’ll try some Exactas and Trifectas on the Trainer / Jockey combos

    But I have a BIG fancy for KING ZAIN in the Vintage Stakes, going to come on bundles for his first run on turf in the Superlative. 7/1 is massive

    Richard 27/07/20 12:01 PM Reply


    • BINGO!!

      First bet a winner

      Richard 28/07/20 1:13 PM Reply


      • Well done, just a shade too short for me, ‘tipping’ wise, at 4s in a race like that, (but she’s won like a 2s shot, so i’ve got that value judgement wrong) the SP a tad more pleasant and one for the ‘H’ stats, so not complains there.
        You’re having a very consistent season to date from what you put up. Superb. Now, can the biggie go in?!

        Josh 28/07/20 1:18 PM Reply


        • Hi

          I was happy enough to go ew at 4/1, and with BOG making the SP very nice it worked out lovely

          I have been KILLING it since the re-start frankly. Happily share the list with you

          Going max on Subjectivist in the Gordon stakes btw

          Richard 28/07/20 1:24 PM Reply


        • Have to say that your stats, trainers trends and reports have been extremely useful in that success so thanks a lot for the hard work

          Richard 28/07/20 1:36 PM Reply


    • BABBO’S BOY refused to leave the stalls

      Richard 28/07/20 2:18 PM Reply


      • No problem RE the stats/content etc, i’m pleased when others use them to help in the battle, that’s what they’re there for.
        Yep, i wondered where he was all the way through it, and assumed withdrawn late – nope, just didn’t come out of the stalls. It hasn’t mattered anyway, winner has bounced back, gone much slower on front end than I anticipated, obv stayed and demolished them. On we go.

        Josh 28/07/20 2:29 PM Reply


  • very poor day on sunday with one winner at short odds
    todays c3+ vid replay list
    york
    15:30 dark lochnagar / glasses up
    goodwood
    13:10 vividly / angel power / agent of fortune
    13:45 yuri gagarin / cape cavalli / bobbo’s boy
    14:15 battleground / devious company / youth spirit
    14:45 glorious journey / space blues / duke of hazard
    15:15 stadivarius / santiago
    15:45 celcius / recon mission / acclaim the nation
    16:20 majd al arad / riffaa wonder ( first run )
    16:55 tuip fields / dancin approach / sly minx

    my pick
    goodwood
    yuri gagarin
    sly minx e/w
    ayr
    dark lochnagar

    googd luck teveyone 🙂

    warren bottomley 28/07/20 5:39 AM Reply


  • A 10/1 place and two losers on Monday.

    Three for Goodwood today:

    1.10, Secret Return – stepping up the grades but still improving, trainer in form, may be value?
    1.45, Babbo’s Boy – I did land on this one as each way value. He beat Harrovian well on his penultimate run, did not go well LTO but I will give another chance at the price.
    2.15, Devious Company – He won his first two and was only beaten by Master Of The Seas LTO. Looks value against The O’Brien runner.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 28/07/20 9:53 AM Reply


  • 11/1 (Bet365) or 10/1 (WH) is a value price for Saltonstall 18.45 Galway – won the race last year, good claimer booked and I liked his recent 4th in Irish Lincoln GL

    James Barker 28/07/20 10:42 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    18:45 Galway

    SALTONSTALL 1pt win 11/1 365, 9/1 gen
    CURRENT OPTION 1pt win 10/1 gen

    Write ups to follow.

    Stewart 28/07/20 11:11 AM Reply


    • Well done Stewart and James, spot on there. Lovely winner to bring some cheer to the end of the day. Superb.

      Josh 28/07/20 6:57 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners:
    14.15. GDwd. Painless Potter/Dark Lion/Thunder of Niagara
    18.30. Yar. Bungledupinblue.

    No selections today. Gd luck if playing.

    silver 28/07/20 1:14 PM Reply


  • Am I dreaming? Good old TP 🙂

    Nige C 28/07/20 1:39 PM Reply


  • nearly got it right,
    Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way
    P 15/2 E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places
    L 9. 16-1 Star Cracker
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
    P 18-1. Black Friday
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    W 11-1 Saltonstall
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places
    Stake:£3.00 Returns: £9.33

    P 25-1 Bal De Rio
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    L 11-1 Landing Zone
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    Rule 4: 5p Deduction
    P 14-1 Magnetic North
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places
    P 16-1 In From The Cold
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
    Stake:£3.00 Returns:£14.68
    4 to fall together would have been nice.

    martin whittle 28/07/20 8:34 PM Reply


    • Tinandali was the missing selection from the post.

      martin whittle 28/07/20 8:37 PM Reply


Post A Reply