Daily Members Post: 27/07/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(81 tips/14 wins/30 places (inc wins) /+83.3 points, advised/+78.5  TBC Betfair SP)

#1 – 7.30 Wind – Bururam – 1 point EW 8/1 (WH/BV) 15/2 (bet365) (1/5,3p) WON 15/2 > 10/3, +9

#2 – 7.30 Wind – Lord Halifax – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) , 11/1 (gen) UP -1

#3 – 6.45 Galway – Takarengo – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (WH/888/Uni) UP -1

 

that’s all for today, x3 tips, 4 point outlay, #1 as of 8am, #2/3 as of 08.57. Write ups at bottom of post as usual… 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

6.30 Wind – Kick On Kick On (9/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’

7.00 Wind – Key Look (12/1< guide)  9/1

7.30 Wind – Lord Halifax (14/1< guide) 12/1 UP

7.30 Wind – Bururam (16/1<) H2 8/1 WON 8/1>10/3 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

5.25 Red – Billy Roberts (1st run) 14/1

 

5.Other/Updates

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Note: given how busy this week could potentially be, race analysis/time wise, there won’t be any ‘micro monday’ or ‘tracker tuesday’ posts. Any C2+ handicap trends/trainer pointers will come as and when, with a one/two Saturday races in full as usual (Stewards Cup is always one) – i’ll try to get those up Thursday as usual, time allowing. 

Galway 2020 Angles 

(as per report HERE>>>)

W Mullins (any)

6.15 – Legal Spin 18/1 4th

6.45 – Tiger Tap Tap 33/1 UP/ Zenon 50/1 4th

7.45 – Mt Leinster 6/4 WON 3/1  / My Sister Sarah 13/2 UP

T Mullins (20/1<)

6.45 – Takarengo 11/1 UP

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Tips write ups…

7.30 Wind…

Bururam – how he was 8s or so in this line up i’ve no real idea. In particular his sectional times LTO  – Golden Wolf, the current fav, ran over 10f here LTO on similar ground as to Bururam’s run here 29 days ago. The selection ran the final 2f in a 1.16 seconds faster time- that’s more than 6 lengths quicker. He was held up out the back there and I don’t think they went overly fast. His closing sectionals were quicker than the two in front of him- 80s horses – if he’d had been upsides when they got racing, he’d have won. He also came around the field and challenged up the middle of the track, far from ideal. The front three were clear and that was a much better race than this. SDS also would have had the choice of meetings, x4 horses he could have ridden up at Redcar (all trained by Tim E, a few of them fancied) but comes here for x3 for King Power Racing instead, with two fancied ones earlier on the card. Hopefully this one brings up a double or a treble for him. The horse will appreciate the softening ground, unlike some in here.

The pace set up is interesting. Well, there isn’t much of it on paper and it could be falsely run. The fact the selection can clearly quicken over this CD, as demonstrated by his sectionals LTO in the final 3-4 furlongs, is a positive, IF this turns into a dash. He appears to be able to dash much quicker than the fav. We shall see if that plays out today. This horse can be buzzy/keen, hence why SDS, after being far too aggressive at Pontefract, decided to restrain him. I hope that he ambles into a more prominent position here early, without the need to light him up, and that he settles well enough. 8s, 15/2 was worth chancing and i’ve gone EW as if he repeated his run here LTO I really struggled to see x3 better horses than him in this. He should have more to come this season, when it clicks, and 3 of his last 4 RPRs have been 87, 85, 85, giving me hope a mark of 80 is workable, on his 10th handicap. We shall see.

Lord Halifax – in the end the price lured me in, having initially been dismissive, or more focused on the one above. However, as I mused over the pace set up I did wonder whether Stevie D may switch things up and try to make all. I say that because the horse stays very well and gets further (won’t have a problem with soft in the going either) and they put 1st CP on. His impressive AW win in December, off 70, came from a more prominent ride also. Queen of The Sea is the only one in this who went forward LTO and dictated a dawdle initially. I suspect Oisin wouldn’t mind taking a lead. In any case, I think the make-all option is there if connections wish to explore it. He’s lightly raced in handicaps and while there’s a question over his form on turf, he ran well here on the second start of his life, staying on well over 10f. That race produced winners as have plenty of his. This is a weaker race than LTO where he ran better to the eye than his finishing position, won by a stablemate that Stevie D had chosen to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes some getting fit also and he could be spot on here. The trainer form also lured me in, 4/17,8p in the last 14 days, trainer/jockey 3/10,6p in that time. The horse is/was also entered up at Thirsk in two days time. He was interesting at 11s and that allowed the play given the questions, but plenty of reasons for why he could take a big step forward here and I suspect he’ll leave a mark of 75 behind at some point this season.

Of the rest…

Well i’m quite negative as to everything else in this, at their odds. The selection should have the fav beat if those times are accurate from LTO. He’s just a better horse and I don’t care much for the weight difference, but maybe that will impact come the end. He’s up two classes here into a much deeper race. That’s of more significance I think. But he is a lightly raced 3YO who won LTO. So no shock if he goes well again. But I was happy to take him on and if he beats me, fair enough. Queen of The Sea has questions now, and I could leave at 9/2. She has stamina to prove and attitude, the CP enlisted again having only be ‘ok’ on her three runs to date. Stamina and ground would be a question. Her race LTO is working out well but I did think she’d need more here. Interesting but again at 9/2 I was happy to take on. Beckett’s has Cest No Mour beat on that run here LTO, although he may have needed it. But I can’t see him overturning that form, even with race fitness – he’s got a ground question also. Golden Wolf is interesting and is still well handicapped on old form but this is a deeper race and he’s clearly not as good as years gone by. He’s up in class and that race LTO is now 0/10 from those to have run since. But he could/should be in the mix. The two selections have more class though, on paper. Burano Boy – another of the 3 years olds, so to be feared to some degree but he’s now 0/4 and steps up in class, out of a maiden handicap where he only ran ‘ok’, with no fitness excuses etc. Ed Dunlop is 2/31 in handicaps here in the last 5 years. In any case, he has questions and i’m not sure he looks well handicapped. The other four are 20s+ and have questions galore and if one of those takes this, so be it. It wasn’t to be my day/race.

I’m quietly confident i’ve read this race right at the prices and will be disappointed if I don’t go close here, esp with Beckett’s. Hopefully they decide to make it a test on Lord Halifax, SDS can track him, and a ding dong battle to the line! Well, you have to be positive in this game.

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Takarengo – backing T Mullins Galway Festival runners, 20s< , will be a profitable micro until he retires I suspect. It’s a meeting he successfully targets and the market can often guide. He’s also in decent form and is having a good season to date.

He’s 1/5 in this race and I thought he was worth chancing at double figures. He’s unexposed in all codes really and I think this will have been the plan. You read the quotes after some of his flat wins last autumn and you get the impression they like him and that he’s got a decent handicap pot in him. He should relish this soft ground on the flat track here and he shapes as if 16f on the level is well worth a go. Of course he may not stay which, along with ‘only’ being 10s/11s influenced me against going EW, 5 places. If he stays he should place at worst though.And you always need luck around here as they turn for home. Many a hard luck story. I think he’s well handicapped and that run LTO will have put him spot on for this. That was the Ladies Derby, won easily by Princess Zoe, but he was ridden by an inexperienced pilot- well, she didn’t really do much to the eye in the saddle. He plugged on. He gets the help of Lisa O’Neill here, one of the better jockeys in this race, although doesn’t ride on the flat very often anymore. The sire’s offspring also do well over staying trips and this step up ‘could’ unlock plenty of improvement.

Whatever he does here I think he’s one to keep an eye on for his canny trainer. He’s got something decent in him off 83 I think. Hopefully today, 45k to the winner.

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GL with any bets, as always,

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Morning on here early as price on one of mine has come in already.
    18:45 Galway

    GREAT WHITE SHARK 1pt win 16/1 365, 14/1 gen
    GRANDMASTER FLASH 1pt win 20/1 365 16/1 gen

    write ups in a while, as always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    Stewart 27/07/20 8:13 AM Reply


    • GREAT WHITE SHARK
      I spent great length looking through all of the Mullins runners and maybe one of the others will go in here, but, GWS has the best track form out of all of them and so, for me should be single figures, or, at least closer to Sharjah than what she is. Think it was the hurdles that did her later on in the week last year, but without them she is 1-1 here and with the C and D in her favour i think even the hike in the weights will still leave her better off than most, her odds are coming in and I expect her to go off potentially closer to the favourite`s odds. Jockey has won on her before, trainer won race etc, so lets have an action replay of last year please.
      GRANDMASTER FLASH
      I was looking for one to beat GWS and this maybe the lad, if the ground comes up softer than ideal then this fella will be in with a shout, two pleasing efforts at the Curragh will have put him spot on, is unexposed and at the right end of the market for me as far as value goes, we shall see.

      Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

      Stewart 27/07/20 1:36 PM Reply


  • No Joy Saturday – 0/2 plus a non runner. And I doubted Enable!!!!!

    Three picks for Monday:

    1.55 MR, Valentino Dancer – Trainer on form, down in class.
    2.30 MR, Ballyhome – Course and distance winner, trainer in form, back over hurdles here.
    6.00 Win, Ice Age – Course and distance winner, winner in this grade, 5LB claimer who is decent.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 27/07/20 9:43 AM Reply


    • You doubted Enable….tut tut, take a week off and think about what you have said 🙂

      Chris Albin 27/07/20 10:38 AM Reply


      • Lol

        warren Bottomley 27/07/20 2:33 PM Reply


  • If anyone has any legal expertise can they explain why Sky tv can promote Skybet when they don’t own any of it anymore surely this is pure advertising and should be obvious to the viewer that it is just that.

    martin whittle 27/07/20 10:03 AM Reply


  • No c3+ races today so day off. Much needed after yesterday.

    Good luck everyone.

    warren Bottomley 27/07/20 11:32 AM Reply


  • Ascot list runners:
    12.35. Redcar. Harswell Prince/Tapeten Toni/Winter Power
    13.10. Redcar Cooperation/Fool’s Rush In.
    16.55. Wind. Aussie Stormer

    These are weak, problematical races so no selections.

    12.35. Redcar a Nursery so no bet .
    13.10. Redcar is a tricky race so no bet. Likewise for 16.55 Windsor.
    Gd lck if playing.

    silver 27/07/20 11:48 AM Reply


  • 15:00 MR Chanceanotherfive is overpriced to me, goes well fresh and hoping the ground is nearer good to soft by 3pm. I’m no good at this sort of stuff but I think he’s no 5/1 shot in what I see as a 2 or 3 horse race.

    Chris Albin 27/07/20 12:32 PM Reply


  • Are there licensing issues regarding the streaming of races at the moment? Sometimes the race is shown and others not or sometimes shown with no audio? I’ve got rid of adobe flash player but how would that make a difference if some races are streamed and others not?

    Chris Albin 27/07/20 12:40 PM Reply


    • I think racing UK and sky have got some sort of split rights going on. It used to be at the races but sky acquired them. In the future if it Boiled down to money sky eventually will get the rights to all UK racing.

      warren Bottomley 27/07/20 2:38 PM Reply


  • Nice one Josh, I like it when you’re quietly confident 🙂

    Mark Curtis 27/07/20 7:45 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mark – the sectionals don’t lie, and that’s where they’re powerful. That’s what tipped me into the quietly confidence zone! He does still pull a bit too much, and that will hold him back against better oppo. Must surely try him in a hood. His turn of foot won it. Happy with that. Good to bounce back after a few expected duffers!

      Josh 27/07/20 7:56 PM Reply


  • I’d already backed Buriram overnight as it was in my tracker, but your write up was useful.
    Trouble was I overslept and the price was vanishing thanks to your influence. I went for a big win on Golden Spear 654G but it was only third. 66/1 though.
    Hope your stamina holds out with a strong finish on Saturday….

    Chris 27/07/20 8:00 PM Reply


    • ha, I don’t think it’s my influence! The other other one and certainly Galway didn’t move!
      Betfair users forced his price in quicker than bookies would have normally I think. Drives me mad at that time outside of the big races, such as that C2 at Good tomorrow which already had 100k in liquidity by 5pm or so. but there we go.
      15/2 was in 3 places 20 minutes after that 8am posting slot. 10/15 mins later everything evaporated.
      Still, good job you backed him last night! 🙂 Well done. Much needed for the ‘H’ horses also.

      Josh

      Josh 27/07/20 8:04 PM Reply


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