2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
The Flat 2020
(81 tips/14 wins/30 places (inc wins) /+83.3 points, advised/
+78.5 TBC Betfair SP)
#1 – 7.30 Wind – Bururam – 1 point EW– 8/1 (WH/BV) 15/2 (bet365) (1/5,3p) WON 15/2 > 10/3, +9
#2 – 7.30 Wind – Lord Halifax – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) , 11/1 (gen) UP -1
#3 – 6.45 Galway – Takarengo – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (WH/888/Uni) UP -1
that’s all for today, x3 tips, 4 point outlay, #1 as of 8am, #2/3 as of 08.57. Write ups at bottom of post as usual…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
6.30 Wind – Kick On Kick On (9/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’
7.00 Wind – Key Look (12/1< guide) 9/1
7.30 Wind – Lord Halifax (14/1< guide) 12/1 UP
7.30 Wind – Bururam (16/1<) H2 8/1 WON 8/1>10/3
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
5.25 Red – Billy Roberts (1st run) 14/1
Note: given how busy this week could potentially be, race analysis/time wise, there won’t be any ‘micro monday’ or ‘tracker tuesday’ posts. Any C2+ handicap trends/trainer pointers will come as and when, with a one/two Saturday races in full as usual (Stewards Cup is always one) – i’ll try to get those up Thursday as usual, time allowing.
Galway 2020 Angles
W Mullins (any)
6.15 – Legal Spin 18/1 4th
6.45 – Tiger Tap Tap 33/1 UP/ Zenon 50/1 4th
7.45 – Mt Leinster 6/4 WON 3/1 / My Sister Sarah 13/2 UP
T Mullins (20/1<)
6.45 – Takarengo 11/1 UP
Tips write ups…
Bururam – how he was 8s or so in this line up i’ve no real idea. In particular his sectional times LTO – Golden Wolf, the current fav, ran over 10f here LTO on similar ground as to Bururam’s run here 29 days ago. The selection ran the final 2f in a 1.16 seconds faster time- that’s more than 6 lengths quicker. He was held up out the back there and I don’t think they went overly fast. His closing sectionals were quicker than the two in front of him- 80s horses – if he’d had been upsides when they got racing, he’d have won. He also came around the field and challenged up the middle of the track, far from ideal. The front three were clear and that was a much better race than this. SDS also would have had the choice of meetings, x4 horses he could have ridden up at Redcar (all trained by Tim E, a few of them fancied) but comes here for x3 for King Power Racing instead, with two fancied ones earlier on the card. Hopefully this one brings up a double or a treble for him. The horse will appreciate the softening ground, unlike some in here.
The pace set up is interesting. Well, there isn’t much of it on paper and it could be falsely run. The fact the selection can clearly quicken over this CD, as demonstrated by his sectionals LTO in the final 3-4 furlongs, is a positive, IF this turns into a dash. He appears to be able to dash much quicker than the fav. We shall see if that plays out today. This horse can be buzzy/keen, hence why SDS, after being far too aggressive at Pontefract, decided to restrain him. I hope that he ambles into a more prominent position here early, without the need to light him up, and that he settles well enough. 8s, 15/2 was worth chancing and i’ve gone EW as if he repeated his run here LTO I really struggled to see x3 better horses than him in this. He should have more to come this season, when it clicks, and 3 of his last 4 RPRs have been 87, 85, 85, giving me hope a mark of 80 is workable, on his 10th handicap. We shall see.
Lord Halifax – in the end the price lured me in, having initially been dismissive, or more focused on the one above. However, as I mused over the pace set up I did wonder whether Stevie D may switch things up and try to make all. I say that because the horse stays very well and gets further (won’t have a problem with soft in the going either) and they put 1st CP on. His impressive AW win in December, off 70, came from a more prominent ride also. Queen of The Sea is the only one in this who went forward LTO and dictated a dawdle initially. I suspect Oisin wouldn’t mind taking a lead. In any case, I think the make-all option is there if connections wish to explore it. He’s lightly raced in handicaps and while there’s a question over his form on turf, he ran well here on the second start of his life, staying on well over 10f. That race produced winners as have plenty of his. This is a weaker race than LTO where he ran better to the eye than his finishing position, won by a stablemate that Stevie D had chosen to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes some getting fit also and he could be spot on here. The trainer form also lured me in, 4/17,8p in the last 14 days, trainer/jockey 3/10,6p in that time. The horse is/was also entered up at Thirsk in two days time. He was interesting at 11s and that allowed the play given the questions, but plenty of reasons for why he could take a big step forward here and I suspect he’ll leave a mark of 75 behind at some point this season.
Of the rest…
Well i’m quite negative as to everything else in this, at their odds. The selection should have the fav beat if those times are accurate from LTO. He’s just a better horse and I don’t care much for the weight difference, but maybe that will impact come the end. He’s up two classes here into a much deeper race. That’s of more significance I think. But he is a lightly raced 3YO who won LTO. So no shock if he goes well again. But I was happy to take him on and if he beats me, fair enough. Queen of The Sea has questions now, and I could leave at 9/2. She has stamina to prove and attitude, the CP enlisted again having only be ‘ok’ on her three runs to date. Stamina and ground would be a question. Her race LTO is working out well but I did think she’d need more here. Interesting but again at 9/2 I was happy to take on. Beckett’s has Cest No Mour beat on that run here LTO, although he may have needed it. But I can’t see him overturning that form, even with race fitness – he’s got a ground question also. Golden Wolf is interesting and is still well handicapped on old form but this is a deeper race and he’s clearly not as good as years gone by. He’s up in class and that race LTO is now 0/10 from those to have run since. But he could/should be in the mix. The two selections have more class though, on paper. Burano Boy – another of the 3 years olds, so to be feared to some degree but he’s now 0/4 and steps up in class, out of a maiden handicap where he only ran ‘ok’, with no fitness excuses etc. Ed Dunlop is 2/31 in handicaps here in the last 5 years. In any case, he has questions and i’m not sure he looks well handicapped. The other four are 20s+ and have questions galore and if one of those takes this, so be it. It wasn’t to be my day/race.
I’m quietly confident i’ve read this race right at the prices and will be disappointed if I don’t go close here, esp with Beckett’s. Hopefully they decide to make it a test on Lord Halifax, SDS can track him, and a ding dong battle to the line! Well, you have to be positive in this game.
Takarengo – backing T Mullins Galway Festival runners, 20s< , will be a profitable micro until he retires I suspect. It’s a meeting he successfully targets and the market can often guide. He’s also in decent form and is having a good season to date.
He’s 1/5 in this race and I thought he was worth chancing at double figures. He’s unexposed in all codes really and I think this will have been the plan. You read the quotes after some of his flat wins last autumn and you get the impression they like him and that he’s got a decent handicap pot in him. He should relish this soft ground on the flat track here and he shapes as if 16f on the level is well worth a go. Of course he may not stay which, along with ‘only’ being 10s/11s influenced me against going EW, 5 places. If he stays he should place at worst though.And you always need luck around here as they turn for home. Many a hard luck story. I think he’s well handicapped and that run LTO will have put him spot on for this. That was the Ladies Derby, won easily by Princess Zoe, but he was ridden by an inexperienced pilot- well, she didn’t really do much to the eye in the saddle. He plugged on. He gets the help of Lisa O’Neill here, one of the better jockeys in this race, although doesn’t ride on the flat very often anymore. The sire’s offspring also do well over staying trips and this step up ‘could’ unlock plenty of improvement.
Whatever he does here I think he’s one to keep an eye on for his canny trainer. He’s got something decent in him off 83 I think. Hopefully today, 45k to the winner.
GL with any bets, as always,