2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
(73 tips/13 wins/27 places (inc wins) /+81.3 points, advised/+83.5 Betfair SP)
#1 – 2.25 Ascot – Blackheath – 1 point win – 32.00 (betfair exchange/recorded to this price) UP, -1
#2 – 2.25 Ascot – Cardsharp – 1 point win – 55.00 3rd, -1
#3 – 1.05 Newm – Mr Kiki – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP, -1 (tac went/jockey lost stirrups)
#4 – 4.10 Ascot – Mankayan – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) 2nd -1
#5 – 2.25 Ascot – Vale Of Kent – 1 point win – 20.00 (betfair exchange) -1
#1/2 as of 8am, #3/4 as of 9am, #5 as of 09.55. That’s all for today, x5, listed in the order I made the decision, write ups at bottom of post as usual…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
1.05 Newm – Mr Kiki (16/1<) H3 8/1 UP
1.30 York – Parys Mountain (9/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ UP
1.30 York – Rum Baba (14/1< guide) 12/1 UP
1.30 York – Shady McCoy (9/1<) H4 8/1 UP
2.25 Ascot – Blue Mist (any) 9/2 WON 9/2
3.50 York – Autumn Flight (9/1<) H4 15/2
4.00 Newm – Nicklaus (13/2<) H1 3/1
4.00 Newm – Joyful Mission (14/1< guide) 10/1
4.10 Ascot – Mankayan (14/1< guide) H2 6/1
4.45 Ascot – Star Cactus (12/1< guide) H2 6/1
5.10 Newm – Nuits St Georges (16/1<) H2 11/4
5.20 Ascot – Young Merlin (any) 11/2
6.00 Donc – Knightcap (9/1<) H4 10/1
6.30 Donc – Dream Together (9/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’
7.30 Donc – Central City (9/1<)
3.Other Micro Angles
Jim Crowley (any)
2.40 York – Elarqam 2/1
3.15 York – Elwazir 7/1
4.Horses to Follow
2.05 York – Bollin Joan (2nd run) 28/1 UP
2.25 Ascot – Ebury (1st run) 8/1 UP
1.30 York – Rum Baba (tipped 2 of last 3/cliff horse 3rd run) 12/1 UP
2.25 Ascot – Spanish City (2nd run) H4 16/1 UP
4.00 Newm – Breath Caught (1st run) H2 5/1
Sat Trends/Trainer pointers…
The x5, 12/12 stats as per my Trends Thursday report leave 12/12 (12/117 runners, 30p) and help ‘remove’ just over half the field, leaving a long list of 9..
Blue Mist / Ebury / Cliffs of Capri H3/ Vale Of Kent H2 / Keyser Soze / Chiefofchiefs/ Arbalet / Blackheath/ Cold Stare
Only one did not run on a straight track LTO: Arbalet
Age 4 OR 5 is a positive: Blue Mist / Ebury / Vale of Kent/ Arbalet/ Cold Stare/ Blackheath
Vale of Kent is or 108, which historically leaves him with a bit to do (105+ : 0/28,3p, last 12 years)
Trainers (to have won race prev 12 renewals, with runners)
- Vale of Kent / Cardsharp (3/25, 5p)
- Cliffs Of Capri (2/4, 2p)
- Eshaasy (1/5,2p)
Tips write ups…
Blackheath – how he’s this price i’ve no idea, 34.00 on the machine as I type at 10.07. He’s in the form of his life and looks like he’s coming into his own now, aged 5. His Haydock run was decent over 6f, running on. The winner followed up. He then won comfortably at Yarmouth, a career best, RPR 96. He quickened up well there. He was travelling powerfully at Newmarket, arguably last off the bridle, but had nowhere to go up the far side rail, twice he ran into trouble, game over. Do go and watch the replay, yellow jacket, far side. He ran much better than that finishing position suggests and he didn’t have a hard race, which may help. He’s a strong traveller, ideal for these races, and I think he’s on the right side, pace wise – middle to high. The track has had a high draw bias this season also I think. Luke Morris knows him well and the horse ticks a few of my trends boxes above. You want a patiently ridden horse onside in these races, and he’s the one for me at the prices. He has a straight course handicap in him this season, somewhere.
Cardsharp – a proper poke and he could just be out of sorts. However, when you look through the history of this race it suggests the best long term strategy is to focus on the bigger priced ones. I’m not sure if that’s due to where the race usually sits in the calendar but it throws up monster priced winners. x3 of them for MJ. This horse has the ability to win this and from his dropping mark. Its the first time this season he gets proper fast ground, and if there is rain around hopefully it won’t have got in by this race. That comment applies to Blackheath also, he wants firm in the going. Kirby knows him well and the pace angle also lured me in. It is hard to make all at this CD but not impossible. He could well grab this nearside rail and he does enjoy being out there on his own. That Ascot run over 8f, in softer ground, was decent, leading them just past the 6f pole up the wrong part of the track. A lively outsider. He can blow hot and cold and may go well for 6f and then go backwards again, but he’s 44.00+ . What with the trainer’s record in this and the yard form, and all the above, I couldn’t help myself. Based on back form you’d like to think he’s a handicap in him again at some point soon.
Vale of Kent – I had a break from this race, found the other two tips discussed below, then went back, which I like to do. Having also pondered plenty last afternoon. Obviously he appears in plenty of places above in my trends/trainer pointers – he’s also up there in HRB ratings. Frankie is on, he gets on well with him, and he’s a prominent racer. Whether low is a negative we shall see, but at least i’ve both sides covered. Frankie is very selective now he books his own rides (JG telling him where to go most of the time of course) and given Enable comes later, he could have just stayed in the weighing room/saved his legs, it could be significant he’s on again. In any case, it’s Frankie, and no-one rides Ascot better. Given my view that this race felt open/everything has questions/I really didn’t like those 10s< at he prices, I did then conclude, like a few of you in the comments, that he could just outclass these off top weight. 2 of his RPRs this season (113/112) are up there with the best he’s ever achieved, only hitting a 113 one other time, last August at York. He ran a cracker here in The Royal Hunt Cup, esp as he’s best over 7f and on faster ground – he only gave way late there having done plenty on the front end. I actually thought a repeat of that run could be good enough. In the last 22 years horses have won from marks higher than 105, and I didn’t want to be put off by that 12 year stat above, not at 20.00. A top weight has won in that time. He has his very good days and off days – like many of MJs. I think that’s down to how often they run them. He’s been kept busy this season and may well appreciate having 12 days off since his run at Newmarket. Given all of the above i’d be sick if he won this and I wasn’t on at the prices.
All three ran in the Bunbury Cup LTO and that’s a good pointer for this race, having found 7 of the last 22 winners. All three would have preferred it faster that day also.
Of the rest… Blue Mist just always seems to have an excuse and be ‘running on’. That’s fine if he’s bigger but not at 9/2 in a race like this. If he beats me, so be it. He goes through his races like a well handicapped horse. He does have a pace to sit off and if he starts better, should be coming with a late rattle. Eshaasy is lightly raced, John Gosden. Frankie can’t do the weight, not many top jocks here today probably can. He’s got an inexperienced pilot on for a race like this and the horse, while progressive/unexposed, is immature for a contest such as this. Not for me at his odds but clearly no shock if he goes well. Ebury could win but again 15/2 couldn’t tempt me in for a hold up type. And Mutamaasik would have a chance on his run here, if leaving LTO behind. Connections still don’t know what happened there, the vets couldn’t find anything and nothing has come to light. All four of those seemed obvious, but still with questions. And, in this race today, too short/about right, to me. It’s likely i’ve got one wrong but i’ll let them beat me. Out of the four i’d favour Ebury who’s betfair price may be bigger.
I didn’t like anything else. I thought plenty looked in the grip of the handicapper/were open to attack from something with more in hand. That included plenty who’ve been ‘running on’ in similar races to this but who I was happy to leave today.
Vale of Kent should dictate the low numbers, Cardsharps the high. Blackheath in mid pack behind him somewhere. Jack’s Point should bring them along up the middle. Whether there are 2/3 groups, we shall see. The stalls are in the centre – they could all come nearside, or an arrow up the middle. We shall see. Anyway, i’ve all bases covered, tactics/track position wise.
This is the sort of race/prices which help make a season a very very good one. They’re hard to find but you don’t need many of them over time. Fingers crossed one of them can continue the good run and swell the coffers for Goodwood/Galway…
Mr Kiki – if he could win for us again that would be a perfect start to the day. I thought 8s was insulting, esp after the withdrawal of the other fancied one – I thought it looked competitive enough initially but once he came out, reassessed. He beat a good horse LTO and wasn’t stopping come the line, showing a good attitude. His closing sectionals were decent also, having put the turbos on. He’s got ability. Maybe the headgear won’t work again but I liked his attitude LTO and Rossa keeps the ride. Drawn high may not be ideal but they could come up the middle. He should be able to get out and sit just behind the fav at some point. I didn’t think the others looked overpriced and nor that the fav was bombproof, esp on different ground. But, his trainer said he’d come on for the run and there could be plenty more to come. He is the right fav but I found it hard to leave Mr K at 8s. I don’t know why he isn’t 4s/5s as per the two above him in the market, maybe i’ll find out why soon enough.
Mankayan – I thought he should be shorter here also and based on his form/profile was entitled to be 4s. He looks progressive, is tactically versatile and stays well. He should relish this track, provided he doesn’t get too far back/turns into a dash. Ryan may try and dictate on Frontispiece, who could be a danger. The selections form is working out well – both his last two races have produced a few winners. He wasn’t stopping LTO and it could be significant Stevie is here. Trainer/jockey are 5/19, 8p, +12 SP in the last 30 days. This looked winnable and 6s looked big to me. He also won’t mind if/when any rain comes, which it could have done by the time of this race and may just take the sting out the ground.
It’s a competitive day and while i’m always positive, I like to be realistic. We have had a mad 2 weeks and such form isn’t sustainable. Days like yesterday are the norm, many losing days, with the winning days making up for them, with interest. If you follow my tips, set a reasonable bank- given my approach probably 200 points, and if that means starting with £2 bets, so be it. We have all the time in the world to build up in the years ahead. I’m not going anywhere. There will be -20/30/50+ losing runs. That’s the game with these prices and how our brains can work. And the fact it’s a bloody challenging sport, but that’s the fun. If you can’t get through such runs, sadly you’ll never win in this game long term and backing horses isn’t for you. It took me a few years/hard lessons to realise that. Still, if you started backing my Flat tips this season or 2 weeks ago, or 1 week ago, you’re playing with profit for now. And i’ll try not to give it all back! 🙂 I’d have taken +80 over the whole Flat season, but it gives me a foundation to potentially have a spectacular summer, after a mediocre time since Jan 19. I’ll try and meet the challenge, hopefully starting today. I back everything I tip with my own money to a level i’m happy with and an amount that when my long losing runs hit, I don’t ever think about the money. And where, if the worst case happens, I can lose 200 points and not lose any sleep.
GL today with any fancies, as always. It’s a game to be enjoyed, otherwise what’s the point. And if you have had a great few weeks or i’ve made you some money, you can buy me a pint using the link below, if you so wish! 🙂 Thanks to all those who’ve chipped in this season, it’s much appreciated.