Daily Members Post: 25/07/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

(73 tips/13 wins/27 places (inc wins) /+81.3 points, advised/+83.5  Betfair SP)

The Flat 

#1 – 2.25 Ascot – Blackheath – 1 point win – 32.00 (betfair exchange/recorded to this price) UP, -1

#2 – 2.25 Ascot – Cardsharp – 1 point win – 55.00  3rd, -1

#3 – 1.05 Newm – Mr Kiki – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP, -1 (tac went/jockey lost stirrups) 

#4 – 4.10 Ascot – Mankayan – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) 2nd -1

#5 – 2.25 Ascot – Vale Of Kent – 1 point win – 20.00 (betfair exchange) -1

#1/2 as of 8am, #3/4 as of 9am, #5 as of 09.55. That’s all for today, x5, listed in the order I made the decision,  write ups at bottom of post as usual…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.05 Newm – Mr Kiki (16/1<) H3 8/1 UP

1.30 York – Parys Mountain (9/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

1.30 York – Rum Baba (14/1< guide) 12/1 UP

1.30 York – Shady McCoy (9/1<) H4 8/1 UP

2.25 Ascot – Blue Mist (any) 9/2 WON 9/2 

3.50 York – Autumn Flight (9/1<) H4 15/2

4.00 Newm – Nicklaus (13/2<) H1 3/1

4.00 Newm – Joyful Mission (14/1< guide) 10/1

4.10 Ascot – Mankayan (14/1< guide) H2 6/1

4.45 Ascot – Star Cactus (12/1< guide) H2 6/1

5.10 Newm – Nuits St Georges (16/1<) H2 11/4

5.20 Ascot – Young Merlin (any) 11/2

6.00 Donc – Knightcap (9/1<) H4 10/1

6.30 Donc – Dream Together (9/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’

7.30 Donc – Central City (9/1<)

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

2.40 York – Elarqam 2/1

3.15 York – Elwazir 7/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot-Form

2.05 York – Bollin Joan (2nd run) 28/1 UP

2.25 Ascot – Ebury (1st run) 8/1 UP

Losing Tips

1.30 York – Rum Baba (tipped 2 of last 3/cliff horse 3rd run) 12/1 UP

2.25 Ascot – Spanish City (2nd run) H4 16/1 UP

4.00 Newm – Breath Caught (1st run) H2 5/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Sat Trends/Trainer pointers…

2.25 Ascot

Trends

The x5, 12/12 stats as per my Trends Thursday report leave 12/12 (12/117 runners, 30p) and help ‘remove’ just over half the field, leaving a long list of 9..

Blue Mist / Ebury / Cliffs of Capri H3/ Vale Of Kent H2 / Keyser Soze / Chiefofchiefs/ Arbalet / Blackheath/ Cold Stare

Only one did not run on a straight track LTO: Arbalet

Age 4 OR 5 is a positive: Blue Mist / Ebury / Vale of Kent/ Arbalet/ Cold Stare/ Blackheath

Vale of Kent is or 108, which historically leaves him with a bit to do (105+ : 0/28,3p, last 12 years)

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 renewals, with runners)

  • Vale of Kent / Cardsharp (3/25, 5p)
  • Cliffs Of Capri (2/4, 2p)
  • Eshaasy (1/5,2p)

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Tips write ups…

2.25 Ascot

Blackheath – how he’s this price i’ve no idea, 34.00 on the machine as I type at 10.07. He’s in the form of his life and looks like he’s coming into his own now, aged 5. His Haydock run was decent over 6f, running on. The winner followed up. He then won comfortably at Yarmouth, a career best, RPR 96. He quickened up well there. He was travelling powerfully at Newmarket, arguably last off the bridle, but had nowhere to go up the far side rail, twice he ran into trouble, game over. Do go and watch the replay, yellow jacket, far side. He ran much better than that finishing position suggests and he didn’t have a hard race, which may help. He’s a strong traveller, ideal for these races, and I think he’s on the right side, pace wise – middle to high. The track has had a high draw bias this season also I think. Luke Morris knows him well and the horse ticks a few of my trends boxes above. You want a patiently ridden horse onside in these races, and he’s the one for me at the prices. He has a straight course handicap in him this season, somewhere.

Cardsharp – a proper poke and he could just be out of sorts. However, when you look through the history of this race it suggests the best long term strategy is to focus on the bigger priced ones. I’m not sure if that’s due to where the race usually sits in the calendar but it throws up monster priced winners. x3 of them for MJ. This horse has the ability to win this and from his dropping mark. Its the first time this season he gets proper fast ground, and if there is rain around hopefully it won’t have got in by this race. That comment applies to Blackheath also, he wants firm in the going. Kirby knows him well and the pace angle also lured me in. It is hard to make all at this CD but not impossible. He could well grab this nearside rail and he does enjoy being out there on his own. That Ascot run over 8f, in softer ground, was decent, leading them just past the 6f pole up the wrong part of the track. A lively outsider. He can blow hot and cold and may go well for 6f and then go backwards again, but he’s 44.00+ . What with the trainer’s record in this and the yard form, and all the above, I couldn’t help myself. Based on back form you’d like to think he’s a handicap in him again at some point soon.

Vale of Kent – I had a break from this race, found the other two tips discussed below, then went back, which I like to do. Having also pondered plenty last afternoon. Obviously he appears in plenty of places above in my trends/trainer pointers – he’s also up there in HRB ratings. Frankie is on, he gets on well with him, and he’s a prominent racer. Whether low is a negative we shall see, but at least i’ve both sides covered. Frankie is very selective now he books his own rides (JG telling him where to go most of the time of course) and given Enable comes later,  he could have just stayed in the weighing room/saved his legs, it could be significant he’s on again. In any case, it’s Frankie, and no-one rides Ascot better. Given my view that this race felt open/everything has questions/I really didn’t like those 10s< at he prices, I did then conclude, like a few of you in the comments, that he could just outclass these off top weight. 2 of his RPRs this season (113/112) are up there with the best he’s ever achieved, only hitting a 113 one other time, last August at York. He ran a cracker here in The Royal Hunt Cup, esp as he’s best over 7f and on faster ground – he only gave way late there having done plenty on the front end. I actually thought a repeat of that run could be good enough. In the last 22 years horses have won from marks higher than 105, and I didn’t want to be put off by that 12 year stat above, not at 20.00. A top weight has won in that time. He has his very good days and off days – like many of MJs. I think that’s down to how often they run them. He’s been kept busy this season and may well appreciate having 12 days off since his run at Newmarket. Given all of the above i’d be sick if he won this and I wasn’t on at the prices.

All three ran in the Bunbury Cup LTO and that’s a good pointer for this race, having found 7 of the last 22 winners. All three would have preferred it faster that day also.

Of the rest… Blue Mist just always seems to have an excuse and be ‘running on’. That’s fine if he’s bigger but not at 9/2 in a race like this. If he beats me, so be it. He goes through his races like a well handicapped horse. He does have a pace to sit off and if he starts better, should be coming with a late rattle. Eshaasy is lightly raced, John Gosden. Frankie can’t do the weight, not many top jocks here today probably can. He’s got an inexperienced pilot on for a race like this and the horse, while progressive/unexposed, is immature for a contest such as this. Not for me at his odds but clearly no shock if he goes well. Ebury could win but again 15/2 couldn’t tempt me in for a hold up type. And Mutamaasik would have a chance on his run here, if leaving LTO behind. Connections still don’t know what happened there, the vets couldn’t find anything and nothing has come to light. All four of those seemed obvious, but still with questions. And, in this race today, too short/about right, to me. It’s likely i’ve got one wrong but i’ll let them beat me. Out of the four i’d favour Ebury who’s betfair price may be bigger.

I didn’t like anything else. I thought plenty looked in the grip of the handicapper/were open to attack from something with more in hand. That included plenty who’ve been ‘running on’ in similar races to this but who I was happy to leave today.

Vale of Kent should dictate the low numbers, Cardsharps the high. Blackheath in mid pack behind him somewhere. Jack’s Point should bring them along up the middle. Whether there are 2/3 groups, we shall see. The stalls are in the centre – they could all come nearside, or an arrow up the middle. We shall see. Anyway, i’ve all bases covered, tactics/track position wise.

This is the sort of race/prices which help make a season a very very good one. They’re hard to find but you don’t need many of them over time. Fingers crossed one of them can continue the good run and swell the coffers for Goodwood/Galway…

The others…

Mr Kiki – if he could win for us again that would be a perfect start to the day. I thought 8s was insulting, esp after the withdrawal of the other fancied one – I thought it looked competitive enough initially but once he came out, reassessed. He beat a good horse LTO and wasn’t stopping come the line, showing a good attitude. His closing sectionals were decent also, having put the turbos on. He’s got ability. Maybe the headgear won’t work again but I liked his attitude LTO and Rossa keeps the ride. Drawn high may not be ideal but they could come up the middle. He should be able to get out and sit just behind the fav at some point. I didn’t think the others looked overpriced and nor that the fav was bombproof, esp on different ground. But, his trainer said he’d come on for the run and there could be plenty more to come. He is the right fav but I found it hard to leave Mr K at 8s. I don’t know why he isn’t 4s/5s as per the two above him in the market, maybe i’ll find out why soon enough.

Mankayan – I thought he should be shorter here also and based on his form/profile was entitled to be 4s. He looks progressive, is tactically versatile and stays well. He should relish this track, provided he doesn’t get too far back/turns into a dash. Ryan may try and dictate on Frontispiece, who could be a danger. The selections form is working out well – both his last two races have produced a few winners. He wasn’t stopping LTO and it could be significant Stevie is here. Trainer/jockey are 5/19, 8p, +12 SP in the last 30 days. This looked winnable and 6s looked big to me. He also won’t mind if/when any rain comes, which it could have done by the time of this race and may just take the sting out the ground.

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It’s a competitive day and while i’m always positive, I like to be realistic. We have had a mad 2 weeks and such form isn’t sustainable. Days like yesterday are the norm, many losing days, with the winning days making up for them, with interest. If you follow my tips, set a reasonable bank- given my approach probably 200 points, and if that means starting with £2 bets, so be it. We have all the time in the world to build up in the years ahead. I’m not going anywhere. There will be -20/30/50+ losing runs. That’s the game with these prices and how our brains can work. And the fact it’s a bloody challenging sport, but that’s the fun.  If you can’t get through such runs, sadly you’ll never win in this game long term and backing horses isn’t for you. It took me a few years/hard lessons to realise that. Still, if you started backing my Flat tips this season or 2 weeks ago, or 1 week ago, you’re playing with profit for now. And i’ll try not to give it all back! 🙂 I’d have taken +80 over the whole Flat season, but it gives me a foundation to potentially have a spectacular summer, after a mediocre time since Jan 19. I’ll try and meet the challenge, hopefully starting today. I back everything I tip with my own money to a level i’m happy with and an amount that when my long losing runs hit, I don’t ever think about the money. And where, if the worst case happens, I can lose 200 points and not lose any sleep. 

GL today with any fancies, as always. It’s a game to be enjoyed, otherwise what’s the point.  And if you have had a great few weeks or i’ve made you some money, you can buy me a pint using the link below, if you so wish! 🙂 Thanks to all those who’ve chipped in this season, it’s much appreciated. 

 

 

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32 Comments

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  • My final three for the International were; ebury, Blue Mist and CLIFFS OF CAPRI

    6 places at Will hill and SkyBet 80% of max stakes (40%ew) on Cliffs. Very hard to see him finish 7th or worse

    Richard 24/07/20 4:53 PM Reply


    • Believe my short list gave the 1-2-4 if not 1-2-5

      Cliffs just didn’t get the split he wanted but solid ew money

      Richard 25/07/20 2:30 PM Reply


      • impressive, well done

        jamesm 25/07/20 5:06 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners Saturday25th.

    13.50. Ascot. Saiega/St Lawrence/Bowland Park
    16.20. Donc. Meant Two B
    16.45. Ascot. Star Cactus
    17.00. York. Julie Johnston/Sparkling Perry

    silver 24/07/20 6:23 PM Reply


    • Ascot list runners notes:

      Selections: Ascot 13.50: St Lawrence 1pt w/o

      Ascot 16.45. Fancy Collinsbay against Star Cactus but it is a nursery hdcp so no bet and same no bet in 17.00 York as it is a nursery hdcp. Doncaster 16.20 Raadobarg was 13/2 last night but at the current price is a no bet against the two Ascot list runners Julie Johnston and Sparkling Perry……so St.Lawrence is the only selection in the 13.50 Ascot. Gd luck with whatever you are betting today.

      silver 25/07/20 12:08 PM Reply


      • Well that did not go according to plan….quite disappointing so down to 4.35 pts profit…..doing well to whittle away at the previous gains so consistent in that regard! Hopefully next week proves better.

        silver 25/07/20 2:20 PM Reply


  • Really poor at this sort of stuff but when I somehow get a shortlist of 4 from a 20 runner race all at decent odds what am I going to do!
    Ascot 14:25
    Gin Palace & Spanish City & Blackheath all small e/w
    Chiefofchiefs small win & e/w.

    Chris Albin 24/07/20 9:36 PM Reply


  • A decent Friday with a 7/4 winner, a 9/1 place and a loser.

    Three for saturday at Ascot:

    2.25, Jacks Point – decent course run over 6F, will be up there with the pace and can go well at a price.

    3.35, Japan – solid form and may improve as a 4YO past Enable, who is no spring chicken now.

    4.10, Frontispiece – winner at the course and at this distance elsewhere, decent first run of the season, Ryan Moore on board, will go from the front I think.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 24/07/20 9:44 PM Reply


  • just the one winner at 5/4 yesterday from the c3+ list.

    silly Saturday has come around again.
    c3+ video replay list
    Newmarket
    13:05 theotherside / love powerful / exceptional
    14:15 indie angel / pretty in grey
    16:00 breath caught / nicklaus
    17:10 mondain

    york
    14:05 dawaaween / award scheme
    14:40 telecaster / regal reality
    15:15 irv / orbaan / just hiss

    ascot
    13:50 harold shand / chindit / twaasol
    14:25 blackheath / mutamaasik / gin palace (needs to be ran fast )
    15:00 dancefever / johan
    15:35 enable
    16:10 mascat / dreamweaver / edinburgh castle
    17:20 solo saxophone / table mountain.

    my picks.
    ascot. edinburgh castle e/w
    york. telecaster / irv e/w
    newmarket breath caught.

    as always good luck. hope everyone bags a few winers today 🙂

    warren bottomley 25/07/20 12:50 AM Reply


  • No overnight rain in the Ascot area. Just had a 5 minute light shower, but sun trying to come through now. Have a feeling we are not going to see much of the forecast rain as it was due to arrive around 6:00 am.

    Ed Walker is very hopeful of a big run from Blackheath on LTA.

    Chris R.

    Chris R. 25/07/20 8:19 AM Reply


  • York weather – light rain until about 10-00 then the odd light shower throughout the day so i expect it should be proper good ground.

    martin whittle 25/07/20 8:29 AM Reply


  • I backed Blackheath y’day on the hope that it would manage a place @33/1.
    I’m frightened that Vale of Kent might just be too good, even off top weight, as his form over this course is consistently top grade – and we have the added Frankie factor today, only the draw being a minor inconvenience.

    Chris 25/07/20 8:56 AM Reply


    • The value of the day must be Sovereign 335A in the pre-race market, with the weight of money for its two rivals, and the hope of repeating of never being caught tactics. A double stake bet for me, laying half off when in substantial profit and letting the balance run. Here’s dreaming 🙂

      Chris 25/07/20 9:17 AM Reply


      • One last try, 410A, Sandret is down south, stable in form, Dane mounted, quick going suits and 16/1 the money.
        Irresistible.
        What a lovely day’s racing and punting, do enjoy.

        Chris 25/07/20 11:39 AM Reply


    • Vale of Kent has one place from 6 runs at Ascot, all C2 according to HRB and is 9lb above his highest winning mark.

      Chris Albin 25/07/20 1:19 PM Reply


  • Wading in with Josh, but, can’t leave Frankie alone…

    14:25 Ascot
    CARDSHARP 1Pt win 20/1 gen
    VALE OF KENT 1pt win 16/1 gen

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today

    Stewart Mcmillan 25/07/20 9:21 AM Reply


    • GL Stewart, I’ve ended up agreeing with you and Chris on Vale of Kent – hopefully a good sign! Does feel very open I thought. Still, backing MJs in that race forever more will probably yield a very good profit over time!
      Josh

      Josh 25/07/20 11:19 AM Reply


      • (assume you meant 33s with Cardsharp! And he’s still 44.00 on the machine, I hope you haven’t taken 20s somewhere!)

        Josh 25/07/20 11:26 AM Reply


        • Yes, was looking at Blackheath when i was typing up this morning, my main bet is those two, with a saver on Blackheath. 🙂

          Stewart 25/07/20 1:14 PM Reply


  • Has anyone subscribed to the platinum service of the online magazine On Course Profits and have anything to say about it? Also do any of you guys use one of those matched betting services and what do you think of them? Are they time consuming? Is the profit worth it? How many accounts do you use?
    Any kind of thoughts or advice on them would be appreciated.
    I’m going to be off work recovering from a hernia op soon so I’m thinking about looking at different products to pass the time. If this is inappropriate for here Josh I’m happy for you to delete this.

    Chris Albin 25/07/20 9:37 AM Reply


    • Hi Chris I did matched betting for a bit. It’s pretty straightforward and you will make money on all the signup offers. It does take a bit of time but nothing too crazy. I know some people who allegedly make over 1k a month from it but by all accounts that is more time consuming.
      Have to say after the initial signup offers were exhausted it wasn’t for me but it’s worth doing for an easy few hundred or so initially. The only word of caution would be be careful with accounts you want to keep as if they think you are ‘arbing’ they’ll bin you off quick.

      Leif Collins 25/07/20 10:16 AM Reply


    • OCP is solid and I have no issues with it at all levels of membership.

      Like everything it depends on what you want to use it for? If you have the quality time to put in to betting on horse racing then it is a good tool. But you need to be selective in terms of what data you use, otherwise you will be a bit bombarded with it and you will just get confused.
      It suit users with an approach already in mind for betting and you use it to support that. I do have some issue with their micros/systems – to me there is a bit of back filling going on.

      If you have any specific ways of working I can give an opinion as to whether OCP will help you.

      Martin Colwell 25/07/20 10:20 AM Reply


    • With arbing, it is not so much how many accounts you use – you use them all! – but rather how many accounts you lose, and how quickly. If you are arbing you can’t wager small amounts, so your bets will be noticed. I know from experience………

      Geoff Sayer 25/07/20 10:59 AM Reply


    • Hi Chris, no issue with that sort of comment… esp as I occasionally write for OCP and i’ve emailed out a few matched betting sites from trusted sources etc over the years.
      Personally, my brain isn’t suited to matched betting – it’s just not exciting enough for me. But each to their own on that score and if you’ve got a traders mindset, you can do well, initially anyway. But as some allude to, there’s questions/issues over your accounts, esp if they’re used for other purposes/backing horses etc.

      On Course Profits… the link below is to the free magazine, and as freebies go, it’s decent. I’ve never really looked in the premium content so can’t say if any good or not, but as with most of their stuff you’re not tied in for any length of time I don’t think. Obviously the below is an affiliate link, just means that if anyone then ever spends any money with them, I make a small cut 🙂

      Free magazine sign up… https://bit.ly/3eJE9Yn

      Josh

      Josh 25/07/20 11:24 AM Reply


  • There is no long term money in arbing any more. If anyone says they are still making money I would ask them to prove it through proofing. I doubt that would happen. Accounts will quickly get closed even if you can last with multiple accounts set up for a while.

    Martin Colwell 25/07/20 11:09 AM Reply


    • Thanks to Geoff and Martin for hammering the final nail in that coffin 🙂
      I’ll be leaving that well alone.
      I tend to agree with you Martin over some micros in OCP, they can seem back fitted or cobbled together without much logic at times. I have managed to re work a couple now and again though. I just wondered if the Platinum subscription was worth the subscription fee over the free version. Is there any more worthwhile content other than a guest tipster?

      Chris Albin 25/07/20 11:31 AM Reply


      • You do get more access to the data re their micros/systems at Platinum and some discounted offers elsewhere. I agree re tweaking their stuff to get better micros etc. They are a way in sometimes. They have too many micros on the go at once and should concentrate on the better ones in my opinion.

        Martin Colwell 25/07/20 11:58 AM Reply


  • I did look very seriously at Blackheath but two things put me off: the stable form and the jockey who is one of those on my ‘never back one ridden by him’ list

    The two Johnston horses are likely to go forward and I think that’s a disadvantage, something drawn high and held up to come storming past

    Fair play putting up huge prices, never put anyone off having a go!

    Richard 25/07/20 1:31 PM Reply


    • Have made an exception today, but agree about the jockey, not a fan ……

      James Barker 25/07/20 1:41 PM Reply


    • It is the sort of race where you can make some sort of case for nearly all of them.

      I don’t have a ‘jockeys I won’t back’ list. He knows the horse and rides the track fine. And certainly for a 30s shot I won’t be put off.

      I’d agree about pace generally but you can make all over this CD/big field and on quick ground, they may not be stopping in front as slowly as they sometimes can.

      We shall see, I won’t be falling off my seat if a number take this but those looked 3 most interesting to me.
      I can see Cliffs staying on, I thought they’d be something better in here but you’d be surprised if out the 6 places, and he should be running on.

      GL as always

      Josh 25/07/20 1:47 PM Reply


  • CARDSHARP
    As Josh has put above there are a couple of factors drawing me to these two, one being the price and the other being the weight of this one, he is weighted to win. One either side of the draw here for me and the Royal hunt Cup is the key with this being a furlong shorter and both Cardsharp and VOK were going well till the furlong pole, so, with this being a furlong shorter and it being a Mark Johnson horse, they should all be primed at this time of season, pandemic or not, that is the key.
    VALE OF KENT
    Class act here and also as Josh says Frankie could have put his feet up and left this one alone, but, he didn`t and he`s on, so, for me that is a tip in itself, he may not win on every horse he puts himself up on, but, he does have the choice and he knows VOK like an old friend, so, we shall see….But, would much rather be on at the double figure prices than some of the single figures in this cavalry charge!!

    Stewart 25/07/20 1:37 PM Reply


  • Star Cactus goes in for the TTPs 🙂

    Nige C 25/07/20 4:50 PM Reply


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